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MARKETS AROUND the COUNTRY Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean Breslin – Executive Vice President - AvalonBay Communities Wes Fuller – Managing Director - Greystar Edward Pettinella – President and CEO - Home Properties Moderator: Hessam Nadji Managing Director – Institutional Property Advisors (A Marcus & Millichap Company)

Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

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Page 1: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

MARKETS AROUND the COUNTRY

Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. MorganSean Breslin – Executive Vice President - AvalonBay CommunitiesWes Fuller – Managing Director - GreystarEdward Pettinella – President and CEO - Home Properties

Moderator: Hessam NadjiManaging Director – Institutional Property Advisors (A Marcus & Millichap Company)

Page 2: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Apartment Vacancy Change from 2009Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

2011*Vacancy

Bps. Chg.(2009)

Austin 5.0% -510

Jacksonville 9.5% -490

Charlotte 6.6% -470

Phoenix 7.6% -470

Dallas-Ft. Worth 6.6% -440

Tampa 6.3% -440

Orlando 7.1% -410

Tucson 8.2% -400

Indianapolis 6.2% -390

Portland 3.1% -380

Denver 4.3% -370

Houston 8.8% -350

Atlanta 8.3% -340

Las Vegas 7.8% -340

Fort Lauderdale 5.4% -320

U.S. Average 5.4% -260

Bottom 15Metros

2011*Vacancy

Bps. Chg.(2009)

Sacramento 5.2% -210

Salt Lake City 5.1% -210

San Jose 3.0% -210

Chicago 4.7% -200

Washington, D.C. 4.4% -190

Oakland-East Bay 4.0% -180

San Diego 3.2% -170

Columbus 7.6% -160

San Francisco 3.4% -140

Los Angeles 4.0% -130

Miami 4.9% -120

Milwaukee 4.0% -110

New Jersey 3.8% -110

New Haven-F.C. 4.0% -60

New York 2.4% -50

U.S. Average 5.4% -260

* Preliminary EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 3: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Regional Apartment Vacancy Trends2011

Note: Basis point change represents change in vacancy from 2010Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, REIS

Southeast6.3%

-120 bps

Northeast3.7%

-100 bpsMidwest5.2%

-120 bpsMountain

6.6%-160 bps

Pacific4.0%

-100 bps

Southwest7.2%

-190 bps

Page 4: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Apartment Vacancy Change Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

2011Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

Phoenix 7.6% -210

Austin 5.0% -200

Houston 8.8% -200

Tucson 8.2% -200

Charlotte 6.6% -180

Indianapolis 6.2% -180

Kansas City 6.2% -180

Dallas-Ft. Worth 6.6% -170

Tampa 6.3% -160

Atlanta 8.3% -150

Jacksonville 9.5% -150

Orlando 7.1% -150

Portland 3.1% -140

Salt Lake City 5.1% -140

San Antonio 7.0% -140

U.S. Average 5.4% -120

Bottom 15Metros

2011Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

Sacramento 5.2% -100

Los Angeles 4.0% -90

New Jersey 3.8% -90

San Francisco 3.4% -90

Chicago 4.7% -90

Cleveland 4.7% -90

St. Louis 6.7% -90

Louisville 4.5% -80

Miami 4.9% -80

San Jose 3.0% -80

New York 2.4% -70

Washington, D.C. 4.4% -70

Palm Beach 6.9% -60

Milwaukee 4.0% -50

Oakland-East Bay 4.0% -50

U.S. Average 5.4% -120

Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 5: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2012 National Apartment ForecastVacancy Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

2012*Vacancy

New York 2.3%

Portland 2.7%

Minneapolis 2.8%

San Jose 2.8%

San Francisco 3.1%

New Jersey 3.4%

Oakland-East Bay 3.4%

San Diego 3.4%

Boston 3.5%

Los Angeles 3.5%

New Haven-F.C. 3.7%

Milwaukee 3.8%

Orange County 3.9%

Denver 4.0%

Seattle-Tacoma 4.0%

U.S. Average 5.0%

Bottom 15Metros

2012*Vacancy

Tampa 5.8%

Dallas-Ft. Worth 6.0%

Indianapolis 6.0%

St. Louis 6.3%

Charlotte 6.4%

Palm Beach 6.4%

San Antonio 6.4%

Orlando 6.8%

Columbus 7.0%

Las Vegas 7.0%

Phoenix 7.0%

Tucson 7.5%

Atlanta 7.9%

Houston 8.0%

Jacksonville 8.8%

U.S. Average 5.0%

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 6: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Panel Response and Discussion

Page 7: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

U.S. Apartment Absorption by Class

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*

Class A Class B/C

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts (0

00s)

* Trailing 12-month period through 3QSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 8: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

$1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+

Med

ian

$/U

nit (

Ths.

)Apartment Pricing Trends by Tranche

Median $/Unit

Sales $1 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Costar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

Page 9: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Primary Secondary Tertiary Preferred

Aver

age

Cap

Rat

e

Sales of $5 million and greaterPreferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEASources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, RCA

Re-pricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market

Page 10: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

U.S. Apartment Cap Rates by Class

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Class AClass B/CClass A Preferred Markets

Aver

age

Cap

Rat

e

Sales $5 million and greaterAssumes properties less than 10 years old at time of sales to be Class A,properties older than 10 years assumed to be Class B/CPreferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEASources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, RCA

Page 11: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

National Apartment Rank by MetroClass A – Class B/C Vacancy Rate Spread

Top 15Metros

Class A Vac.

Class B/C Vac.

Bps.Spread

Columbus 4.3% 9.5% 520

Atlanta 6.6% 10.4% 380

Jacksonville 7.4% 11.2% 380

Houston 7.6% 10.6% 300

Phoenix 6.5% 9.2% 270

Dallas-Ft. Worth 5.6% 8.0% 240

Tampa 5.4% 7.6% 220

Indianapolis 5.4% 7.3% 190

St. Louis 5.5% 7.4% 190

San Antonio 6.3% 8.1% 180

Charlotte 6.0% 7.7% 170

Tucson 6.0% 7.7% 170

Detroit 4.7% 6.3% 160

Louisville 3.7% 5.3% 160

Cincinnati 4.7% 6.2% 150

U.S. Average 5.3% 5.9% 60

All vacancies as of 3Q 2011Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Bottom 15Metros

Class A Vac.

Class B/C Vac.

Bps.Spread

Orange County 4.6% 4.4% -20

Chicago 5.0% 4.8% -20

Denver 5.4% 5.0% -40

San Jose 3.3% 2.9% -40

Washington, D.C. 4.8% 4.4% -40

Minneapolis 3.0% 2.3% -70

Oakland-East Bay 4.5% 3.8% -70

Philadelphia 5.0% 4.2% -80

Salt Lake City 5.8% 4.9% -90

Portland 3.7% 2.8% -90

San Francisco 4.3% 3.1% -120

Boston 5.0% 3.7% -130

Los Angeles 5.1% 3.8% -130

Inland Empire 6.1% 4.8% -130

San Diego 4.6% 2.7% -190

U.S. Average 5.3% 5.9% 60

Page 12: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Panel Response and Discussion

Page 13: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

National Apartment Rank by MetroMonthly Payment by Spread

Top 15Metros

Class A Ask. Rent*

Mortgage Pmt. Spread

New York $2,930 $5,754 $2,824

San Francisco $2,221 $3,651 $1,430

San Jose $1,722 $2,986 $1,264

Oakland $1,569 $2,706 $1,137

Orange County $1,737 $2,121 $384

Seattle-Tacoma $1,180 $1,488 $308

San Diego $1,658 $1,925 $267

Portland $968 $1,166 $198

Charlotte $906 $1,087 $181

Denver $1,071 $1,205 $134

Salt Lake City $883 $947 $64

Washington, D.C. $1,674 $1,734 $60

New Jersey $1,587 $1,616 $29

Austin $1,014 $1,017 $3

San Antonio $837 $803 -$34

U.S. Average $1,210 $867 -$343* Through 3Q 2011Monthly mortgage payments based upon 3Q 2011 median home prices, 80% LTV, 4.5% interest rate,30-year loan term, 1.5% taxes and insuranceSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis, National Association of Realtors

Bottom 15Metros

Class A Ask. Rent*

Mortgage Pmt. Spread

St. Louis $915 $651 -$264

Las Vegas $913 $645 -$268

Inland Empire $1,181 $910 -$271

Boston $2,153 $1,853 -$300

Fort Lauderdale $1,275 $972 -$303

Orlando $985 $665 -$320

Phoenix $912 $590 -$322

Minneapolis $1,138 $814 -$324

Palm Beach $1,304 $979 -$325

Tampa $992 $650 -$342

Cleveland $912 $559 -$353

Chicago $1,379 $943 -$436

Atlanta $958 $519 -$439

Miami $1,368 $922 -$446

Detroit $1,020 $326 -$694

U.S. Average $1,210 $867 -$343

Page 14: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2012* Apartment Unit CompletionsRank by Metro

Top 15Metros

2012*Completions

2012* Vacancy

New York 6,500 2.3%

Dallas-Ft. Worth 5,500 6.0%

Houston 4,800 8.0%

Washington, D.C. 4,700 4.0%

Austin 3,000 4.3%

Atlanta 2,900 7.9%

New Jersey 2,600 3.4%

Denver 2,500 4.0%

Orange County 2,400 3.9%

Indianapolis 2,200 6.0%

Salt Lake City 1,900 4.8%

Seattle-Tacoma 1,900 4.0%

Minneapolis 1,865 2.8%

San Antonio 1,850 6.4%

Los Angeles 1,680 3.5%

U.S. Metro Total 85,000 5.0%

Bottom 15Metros

2012*Completions

2012* Vacancy

Kansas City 525 5.8%

San Jose 520 2.8%

New Haven-F.C. 518 3.7%

Fort Lauderdale 500 5.1%

Jacksonville 500 8.8%

Oakland-East Bay 500 3.4%

San Francisco 480 3.1%

Charlotte 390 6.4%

Louisville 300 4.1%

Detroit 290 5.0%

Tucson 208 7.5%

Palm Beach 200 6.4%

Portland 130 2.7%

Cleveland 125 4.4%

Sacramento - 5.0%

U.S. Metro Total 85,000 5.0%

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 15: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011* Apartment Effective Rent Change from 2007Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

EffectiveRent*

Chg. From 2007

Austin $795 5.4%

Washington, D.C. $1,329 5.1%

Louisville $627 4.8%

Denver $804 3.9%

Boston $1,657 3.4%

San Antonio $668 3.4%

Cincinnati $674 3.2%

Houston $707 3.2%

Seattle $941 3.1%

Philadelphia $993 3.0%

Columbus $634 2.3%

San Diego $1,287 2.1%

Minneapolis $901 2.0%

Kansas City $656 1.9%

Portland $760 1.6%

U.S. Average $975 0.0%

Bottom 15Metros

EffectiveRent*

Chg. From 2007

Tampa $772 -1.4%

Jacksonville $743 -1.7%

Sacramento $854 -2.4%

Detroit $750 -2.7%

Phoenix $692 -2.9%

Orange County $1,442 -3.1%

Palm Beach $1,014 -3.2%

Oakland-East Bay $1,227 -3.3%

Fort Lauderdale $1,018 -3.6%

Los Angeles $1,329 -3.8%

San Jose $1,409 -4.0%

Orlando $784 -4.2%

Miami $1,014 -4.5%

Inland Empire $967 -5.7%

Las Vegas $743 -9.3%

U.S. Average $975 0.0%

* As of 3QSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 16: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Panel Response and Discussion

Page 17: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Submarket Rankings and Examples of Variations Between Metros and Submarkets

Ranking of 846 apartment submarkets across 44 metros based on 2011 vacancy rate

Page 18: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Apartment Submarket Ranking Lowest Vacancy Submarkets Across the U.S.

Top 15Submarkets Market

2011Vacancy

MetroVacancy

Bronx County New York 0.7% 2.4%

Upper East Side New York 1.2% 2.4%

Davis Sacramento 1.2% 5.2%

New Haven Harborside New Haven-F.C. 1.5% 4.0%

El Cajon/Santee/Lakeside San Diego 1.7% 3.2%

Campbell/Los Gatos San Jose 1.7% 3.0%

Lincoln Park Chicago 1.8% 4.7%

North Haven/Wallingford/Meriden New Haven-F.C. 1.8% 4.0%

North Marin San Francisco 1.8% 3.4%

Greenfield/Greendale/Franklin Milwaukee 1.9% 4.0%

Foxchase/Lawndale Philadelphia 1.9% 4.4%

Upper Bucks County Philadelphia 1.9% 4.4%

Balboa Park/West of I-15 San Diego 1.9% 3.2%

Dupont Circle/Adams Morgan Washington, D.C. 1.9% 4.4%

Northeast Minneapolis 2.0% 2.6%

U.S. Average 5.4%

Note: Total 846 submarkets included in the analysis Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 19: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Apartment Submarket Ranking Highest Vacancy Submarkets Across the U.S.

Bottom 15Submarkets Market

2011Vacancy

MetroVacancy

Southeast Columbus 13.6% 7.6%

I-20 West Atlanta 13.7% 8.3%

East Fort Worth Dallas-Ft. Worth 13.9% 6.6%

Baytown Houston 13.9% 8.8%

Grove City Columbus 14.2% 7.6%

Northwest/441 Orlando 14.2% 7.1%

Heights Houston 14.5% 8.8%

Lake Shore Jacksonville 15.1% 9.5%

South Dallas Dallas-Ft. Worth 15.3% 6.6%

Southwest Kansas City Kansas City 15.4% 6.2%

North Houston Houston 15.6% 8.8%

Southeast San Antonio 15.7% 7.0%

Greater Arlington Jacksonville 15.9% 9.5%

South DeKalb Atlanta 17.8% 8.3%

San Jacinto/Galena Park Houston 18.3% 8.8%

U.S. Average 5.4%

Note: Total 846 submarkets included in the analysis Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 20: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Highest VacancySubmarkets Low Vacancy Metros

Submarket Vacancy

Metro Vacancy

Bala-Cynwyd Philadelphia 8.6% 4.4%Palmdale/Lancaster Los Angeles 7.0% 4.0%Aurora-Central-Southwest Denver 7.0% 4.3%Placentia/Northeast Anaheim Orange County 6.7% 4.3%City West Milwaukee 6.5% 4.0%North Alameda Oakland-East Bay 5.8% 4.0%Northwest/Downtown Portland 5.6% 3.1%Downtown San Diego San Diego 5.4% 3.2%Washington County Minneapolis 5.0% 2.6%West San Francisco San Francisco 4.9% 3.4%

Highest vacancy submarkets in select low vacancy marketsNote: Total 846 submarkets included in analysisSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

2011 Apartment Submarket RankingHighest Vacancy Submarkets in

Low Vacancy Metros

Page 21: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Lowest VacancySubmarkets High Vacancy Metros

Submarket Vacancy

Metro Vacancy

Ocean Beaches Jacksonville 2.2% 9.5%Olathe/Gardner Kansas City 2.6% 6.2%Spring Valley Las Vegas 3.5% 7.6%University/Downtown Columbus 3.5% 7.8%Brandon/Plant City Tampa 3.8% 6.2%South Scottsdale Phoenix 4.2% 6.2%Sugar Land/Fort Bend County Houston 4.5% 6.7%North Pineville Charlotte 4.5% 8.8%Garland Dallas-Ft. Worth 4.6% 7.6%West Altamonte Springs Orlando 4.9% 7.1%

2011 Apartment Submarket RankingLowest Vacancy Submarkets in

High Vacancy Metros

Lowest vacancy submarkets in select high vacancy marketsNote: Total 846 submarkets included in analysisSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 22: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Panel Response and Discussion

Page 23: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

MARKETS AROUND the COUNTRY

Jean Anderson – Managing Director, J.P. MorganSean Breslin – Executive Vice President, AvalonBay CommunitiesWes Fuller – Executive Director, GreystarEdward Pettinella – CEO, Home Properties, Inc.

Moderator: Hessam NadjiManaging Director – Institutional Property Advisors (A Marcus & Millichap Company)

Page 24: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Detroit Apartment Submarket Vacancy Ranking

Top 5Submarkets

2011*Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

Oak Park/Royal Oak 3.1% -90

Ann Arbor 3.4% -150

Westland 3.9% -140

Farmington Hills 4.4% -110

Macomb County 4.4% -100

Metro Average 5.6% -130

Bottom 5Submarkets

2011*Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

Midtown/West Detroit 11.7% -190

Downtown 8.8% -90

Novi/Livonia 7.9% -30

Pontiac/Waterford 6.4% -170

Dearborn/Dearborn Heights 6.2% -170

Metro Average 5.6% -130

*4Q EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 25: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Houston Apartment Submarket Vacancy Ranking

Top 5Submarkets

2011*Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

Sugar Land/Fort Bend County 4.5% -190

Bellaire/West University 5.1% -200

Katy/Bear Creek 5.5% -210

North Loop East/Sheldon 5.9% -230

Kingwood/Lake Houston 6.4% -320

Metro Average 8.8% -200

Bottom 5Submarkets

2011*Vacancy

YOY Chg.Bps.

San Jacinto/Galena Park 18.3% 330

North Houston 15.6% -370

Heights 14.5% -380

Baytown 13.9% -360

Spring/Champions 13.0% -270

Metro Average 8.8% -200

*4Q EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 26: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Apartment Unit Completions as Percentage of Total Inventory Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

Comp. as % of Inventory

2011* Vacancy

Salt Lake City 1.2% 5.1%

Indianapolis 1.1% 6.2%

New Haven-F.C. 1.1% 4.0%

New York 1.1% 2.4%

Columbus 0.9% 7.6%

Kansas City 0.9% 6.2%

Charlotte 0.8% 6.6%

Washington, D.C. 0.6% 4.4%

Palm Beach 0.6% 6.9%

Oakland-East Bay 0.6% 4.0%

Atlanta 0.5% 8.3%

San Antonio 0.5% 7.0%

Las Vegas 0.5% 7.8%

Dallas/Fort Worth 0.5% 6.6%

Seattle-Tacoma 0.5% 4.6%

U.S. Average 0.4% 5.4%

* Preliminary EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Bottom 15Metros

Comp. as % of Inventory

2011* Vacancy

Fort Lauderdale 0.2% 5.4%

Inland Empire 0.2% 5.2%

Chicago 0.1% 4.7%

Phoenix 0.1% 7.6%

Jacksonville 0.1% 9.5%

Cleveland 0.1% 4.7%

Sacramento 0.1% 5.2%

Portland 0.1% 3.1%

Tampa-St. Petersburg 0.1% 6.3%

San Francisco 0.1% 3.4%

Philadelphia 0.0% 4.4%

Orange County 0.0% 4.3%

Detroit 0.0% 5.6%

Louisville 0.0% 4.5%

Tucson 0.0% 8.2%

U.S. Average 0.4% 5.4%

Page 27: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011 Apartment Unit Completions Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

Total Completions

2011* Vacancy

Dallas-Ft. Worth 2,900 6.6%

Washington, D.C. 2,430 4.4%

Atlanta 2,000 8.3%

Los Angeles 1,870 4.0%

New York 1,755 2.4%

New Jersey 1,527 3.8%

Indianapolis 1,215 6.2%

Columbus 1,154 7.6%

Seattle-Tacoma 1,120 4.6%

Houston 1,100 8.8%

Kansas City 1,027 6.2%

Salt Lake City 992 5.1%

Denver 838 4.3%

Charlotte 825 6.6%

Oakland-East Bay 816 4.0%

U.S. Average 39,000 5.4%

* Preliminary EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Bottom 15Metros

Total Completions

2011* Vacancy

Miami 273 4.9%

Milwaukee 239 4.0%

Inland Empire 220 5.2%

Fort Lauderdale 150 5.4%

Cleveland 140 4.7%

Jacksonville 100 9.5%

Sacramento 100 5.2%

Tampa 100 6.3%

Philadelphia 100 4.4%

Orange County 93 4.3%

San Francisco 76 3.4%

Portland 70 3.1%

Detroit - 5.6%

Louisville - 4.5%

Tucson - 8.2%

U.S. Average 39,000 5.4%

Page 28: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Multifamily StartsLast Six Months* Ranked by YOY Percent Change

Top 15Metros

YOY %Chg.**

Total Starts

Phoenix 313% 1,389

Fort Lauderdale 246% 543

Kansas City 212% 817

Inland Empire 206% 827

San Francisco 171% 1,532

Denver 164% 1,750

Cincinnati 118% 425

Palm Beach 115% 228

New Haven-F.C. 110% 418

Philadelphia 99% 1,164

Washington, D.C. 85% 4,318

Sacramento 78% 427

Jacksonville 73% 276

Columbus 71% 781

Houston 70% 3,265

U.S. Average 31% 96,250

* Period from June 2011 to November 2011**Change from June 2010 to November 2010 Period Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

Bottom 15Metros

YOY %Chg.**

Total Starts

Salt Lake City 24% 708

Dallas-Fort Worth 15% 4,265

New Jersey 14% 10,343

New York 10% 5,831

Indianapolis 4% 533

Seattle-Tacoma 3% 2,044

Las Vegas 0% 585

San Jose -4% 1,279

Minneapolis -8% 397

Louisville -17% 293

Miami -28% 888

Tucson -29% 159

Charlotte -35% 477

Milwaukee -53% 211

Orlando -61% 355

U.S. Average 31% 96,250

Page 29: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

Multifamily StartsLast Six Months* Ranked by Total Starts

Top 15Metros

YOY %Chg.**

Total Starts

New Jersey 14% 10,343

New York 10% 5,831

Washington, D.C. 85% 4,318

Dallas-Fort Worth 15% 4,265

Los Angeles 26% 3,310

Houston 70% 3,265

Austin 33% 2,790

Seattle-Tacoma 3% 2,044

Denver 164% 1,750

San Francisco 171% 1,532

Phoenix 313% 1,389

San Diego 48% 1,387

Boston 66% 1,380

San Antonio 66% 1,342

Tampa-St. Petersburg 24% 1,313

U.S. Average 31% 96,250

Period from June 2011 to November 2011**Change from June 2010 to November 2010 Period Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

Bottom 15Metros

YOY %Chg.**

Total Starts

Fort Lauderdale 246% 543

Indianapolis 4% 533

Charlotte -35% 477

Sacramento 78% 427

Cincinnati 118% 425

New Haven-F.C. 110% 418

Minneapolis -8% 397

Orlando -61% 355

Louisville -17% 293

Jacksonville 73% 276

Detroit 41% 240

Palm Beach 115% 228

Milwaukee -53% 211

Tucson -29% 159

Cleveland 69% 85

U.S. Average 31% 96,250

Page 30: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2012* Apartment Unit Completions as Percentage of Total Inventory Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

Comp. as % of Inventory

2012* Vacancy

New York 3.8% 2.3%

Salt Lake City 2.3% 4.8%

Indianapolis 1.9% 6.0%

Austin 1.8% 4.3%

Denver 1.4% 4.0%

San Antonio 1.2% 6.4%

Cincinnati 1.2% 5.7%

Minneapolis 1.2% 2.8%

Miami 1.2% 4.4%

Washington, D.C. 1.2% 4.0%

Orange County 1.1% 3.9%

New Haven-F.C. 1.1% 3.7%

Houston 1.0% 8.0%

Dallas-Ft. Worth 0.9% 6.0%

Milwaukee 0.9% 3.8%

U.S. Average 0.9% 5.0%

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Bottom 15Metros

Comp. as % of Inventory

2012* Vacancy

St. Louis 0.5% 6.3%

Inland Empire 0.5% 4.6%

Kansas City 0.4% 5.8%

Charlotte 0.4% 6.4%

Phoenix 0.4% 7.0%

Palm Beach 0.4% 6.4%

Chicago 0.4% 4.2%

Tucson 0.4% 7.5%

San Francisco 0.4% 3.1%

Oakland-East Bay 0.3% 3.4%

Los Angeles 0.2% 3.5%

Detroit 0.1% 5.0%

Portland 0.1% 2.7%

Cleveland 0.1% 4.4%

Sacramento 0.0% 5.0%

U.S. Average 0.9% 5.0%

Page 31: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

2011* Apartment Class A Asking Rent Change from 2007Rank by Metro

Top 15Metros

Class A Asking Rent*

Chg. From 2007

Washington, D.C. $1,674 5.7%

Houston $960 5.4%

Louisville $819 5.1%

Portland $968 4.5%

Denver $1,071 3.9%

Philadelphia $1,239 3.8%

Seattle-Tacoma $1,180 3.6%

Austin $1,014 3.6%

Dallas-Ft. Worth $962 3.6%

San Antonio $837 3.1%

Salt Lake City $883 3.0%

Kansas City $821 2.8%

Boston $2,153 2.4%

New Jersey $1,587 2.4%

Chicago $1,379 2.4%

U.S. Average $1,210 1.2%

Bottom 15Metros

Class A Asking Rent*

Chg. From 2007

Detroit $1,020 -1.4%

Palm Beach $1,304 -1.5%

Jacksonville $944 -1.8%

Milwaukee $1,045 -1.8%

San Francisco $2,221 -2.5%

Orlando $985 -2.8%

New Haven-F.C. $1,926 -2.9%

San Jose $1,722 -3.4%

Oakland-East Bay $1,569 -3.5%

Fort Lauderdale $1,275 -3.6%

Orange County $1,737 -3.9%

Miami $1,368 -4.5%

Inland Empire $1,181 -4.5%

Los Angeles $1,804 -5.2%

Las Vegas $913 -5.9%

U.S. Average $1,210 1.2%

* As of 3QSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 32: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

U.S. Apartment Vacancy by Class

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*

Class A Class B/C

Aver

age

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* Preliminary EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 33: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

U.S. Apartment Asking Rent Change by Class

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01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*

Class A Class B/C

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* Preliminary EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis

Page 34: Jean Anderson – Managing Director - J.P. Morgan Sean ... · Orange County 3.9% Denver 4.0% Seattle-Tacoma 4.0% U.S. Average 5.0% Bottom 15 Metros 2012* Vacancy Tampa 5.8% Dallas-Ft

* Through NovemberSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

0

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U.S. Long Term Multifamily StartsY-O

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