Human Rights DivisionUnited Nations Mission in South Sudan

QUARTERLYBRIEFONVIOLENCEAFFECTINGCIVILIANS

J a n u a r y – M a r c h 2 0 2 0

CONTEXTThis brief presents an overview of trends in violenceaffecting civilians between January and March 2020,by assessing four major forms of individual harmexperienced throughout the conflict (killing, injury,abduction and sexual violence). While the impact ofviolence extends beyond these forms of harm, theyhave been the most common incidents documentedthroughout the conflict in South Sudan.

Since the signing of the Revitalized Agreement onthe Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic ofSouth Sudan (R-ARCSS) in September 2018, theoverall number of civilian1 casualties (defined askilled and injured civilians) attributed toconventional parties to the conflict has declined. Atthe same time, entrenched patterns of violenceaffecting civilians have persisted. This includesincidents commonly referred to as “intercommunalviolence.” Although this violence is rooted in the

1. When the distinction between civilians and combatants is not possible HRD presumes that victims are civilians until proven otherwise.

history of South Sudan, over the years it hastaken on an increasingly militarized character,with the involvement of elements ofconventional parties to the conflict. It thereforecannot be dissociated from local and nationalmilitary dynamics.

The UNMISS Human Rights Division (HRD)has developed an incident-based trackingmechanism to document conflict-relatedviolations and abuses. This data is disaggregatedby the sex and age of victims. Sources ofinformation include victim and eyewitnessaccounts, as well as reports from secondarysources identified during HRD field missions.All reported incidents, particularly thoseinvolving intercommunal violence, aredeconflicted with incidents documented by theUNMISS Civil Affairs Division (CAD).

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GENERALTRENDSBetween January and March 2020, HRDdocumented more than 275 incidents, involving atleast 1,767 civilians who were subjected to one ofthe four major forms of harm (658 killed, 452injured, 592 abducted, and 65 subjected to sexualviolence). By comparison, between January andMarch 2019, 159 incidents were documented,involving at least 912 civilian victims (452 killed,310 injured, 89 abducted, and 61 subjected to sexualviolence), the majority arising from intercommunalviolence. This corresponds to a 94 per cent increasein the number of victims (mainly killed andabducted), and a 73 per cent increase in the numberof incidents between the first quarter of 2019 and thesame period in 2020.

560

101251

414

762

591

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Jan Feb Mar

2019 2020

Number of victims, Q1 2019 / Q1 2020

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During the first quarter of 2020, intercommunalviolence constituted the primary source of violenceaffecting civilians and accounted for more than twothirds (75 per cent) of civilian victims (1,329). Thisis a direct result of the evolving nature ofintercommunal conflict, which is often carried outwith military-style tactics and military-gradeweapons. During the reporting period, for instance,at least four separate attacks each claimed the livesof more than 50 civilians.

Intercommunal violence varies significantly in scaleand intensity. Traditionally, analysts have attributedfluctuations in the frequency of intercommunalviolence to seasonal variations, and in particular thearrival of the dry season, when competition forshrinking grazing land intensifies.

While the dry season usually begins in lateNovember or early December, in 2019, it arrived inlate December, and was preceded by months ofheavy flooding in parts of the country in whichthousands of cattle perished, placing economicstrains on communities. The delayed onset of the dryseason may have contributed to a spike inintercommunal violence documented by HRD frommid-February to early March in the regions ofJonglei and Lakes.

This localized violence, exacerbated by pre-existingcommunal tensions over access to natural resources,constitutes a destabilizing factor undermining peacein South Sudan.

Meanwhile, as a result of the relatively low numberof clashes between Government forces andorganized armed groups, violence by these partiesaffecting civilians remained comparatively low,accounting for 23 per cent of all victims. Thecessation of hostilities since the signing of the R-ARCSS is one of the main

factors explaining this nationwide trend. Exceptionswere documented in specific counties in Central andWestern Equatoria, Unity and Western Bahr elGhazal states. By comparison, between April andSeptember 2018 (before the signing of the R-ARCSS), these actors accounted for 75 per cent ofvictims.

Nonetheless, new trends have emerged in thecontext of the implementation of the R-ARCSS. Ofparticular concern are allegations of the forcedmilitary recruitment of civilians to boost troopnumbers of the R-ARCSS signatory parties in areassurrounding cantonment and training sites.

HRD also documented a relatively small number ofincidents of opportunistic violence by unidentifiedbut related armed elements, which do not fallspecifically within one of the two categoriesdescribed above, but which bear a link to the conflictbased on the suspected perpetrators, location, modusoperandi and other factors.

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Number of victims, by category of violence

The majority of victims were documented in Jonglei,Lakes and Warrap states, which are also the areasmost affected by intercommunal violence. A closerexamination reveals, however, that intercommunalviolence was not widespread within these regionsoverall but was concentrated within 49 (of 79)counties that contain vital grazing areas forpastoralists. The heavy flooding that occurred in thelast quarter of 2019 led to greater food insecurity anddisruption of livelihoods in many areas, which inturn may have prompted increased cattle-raiding

during the dry season, as communities attempted torecoup losses and secure food sources prior to thereturn of the rainy season (typically arriving inApril or May).

Despite the overarching respect of the ceasefirethroughout the country, conventional parties to theconflict remained active in the areas of Yei(Central Equatoria) and Maridi (WesternEquatoria) near the border with the DemocraticRepublic of Congo. These incidents primarilyinvolved Government

GEOGRAPHICTRENDS

GENERALTRENDS

27

1,329

411

75 %

23 %

2 %

411

including former pro-Taban Deng elements ofthe Sudan People’s Liberation Army inOpposition (SPLA-IO/TD), the South SudanNational Police Service (SSNPS) and theNational Security Service (NSS). As fororganized armed groups, the pro-Riek MacharSPLA-IO is a signatory to the 2018 peaceagreement. In addition, NAS and affiliatedarmed elements, who are not signatories to theR-ARCSS, also committed abuses againstcivilians, primarily in the areas of Yei (CentralEquatoria) and Maridi (Western Equatoria).Armed elements of the Provisional Military andPolitical Council (PMPC), a group loyal toformer pro-Machar SPLA-IO commander,James Ochan, and reportedly affiliated with theSSPDF, were responsible for several incidents inthe Maiwut area of Upper Nile as well.

HRD has found that men, particularly young men,comprise the majority of victims (69 per cent, or1,221 individuals). Children are the second-largestgroup of victims, at 16 per cent (290 individuals),while women account for the remaining 15 per cent(256 individuals). However, beyond the directimpact of violence, women and children aredisproportionately affected by the indirect effects ofconflict – particularly in terms of access to healthcare, education and livelihoods in volatile areas.

According to HRD’s findings, most adult malevictims (77 per cent) were either killed or injured,largely in the context of intercommunal violence.The remaining 23 per cent of adult male victimswere abducted, chiefly for the purpose of forcedmilitary recruitment.

Children were primarily abducted (80 per cent) andkilled or injured (11 per cent). Most of theseabductions occurred in the context of intercommunalviolence. HRD also documented that 11 girls weresubjected to sexual violence.

Women were primarily subjected to killing (35per cent) and abduction (33 per cent). Most ofthese occurred in the context of intercommunalviolence. Overall, cases of sexual violence,including rape, gang rape, sexual slavery andforced marriage, accounted for 20 per cent ofthe adult female victims documented by HRD.

HRD’s investigations have identified three majorcategories of perpetrators involved in conflict-related violence affecting civilians: i) conventionalparties to the conflict; ii) community-based militiasand self-defence groups; and iii) unidentified (butrelated) armed elements.

In the first quarter of 2020, HRD investigationsattributed responsibility for 23 per cent of victims toconventional parties to the conflict. This category ofperpetrators includes Government defence andsecurity forces, as well as organized oppositionarmed groups.

Amongst Government forces, acts of violencetargeting civilians were mainly attributed to theSouth Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF),

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,

Men Women Boys Girls

TOTAL1,767

1,221

256

162128

73%

7%9%

15%

69 %

73%

Number of victims, by age and sex

VICTIMS

forces and elements of the National SalvationFront (NAS). Notably, on 15 January, theGovernment and NAS (as part of the South SudanOpposition Movements Alliance) signed anagreement on the cessation of hostilities under theauspices of Sant’Egidio, in Rome.

Notwithstanding, military operations andactivities involving Government forces,organized armed groups and their respectiveproxy armed elements, have continued toplace civilians at risk in these areas, as well asin parts of Unity and Western Bahr el Ghazalstates.

PERPETRATORS

coordination. The increased militarization ofthese groups is one of the chief reasons behindthe high numbers of civilian casualtiesdocumented during intercommunal clashes inFebruary.

Compounding this increased violence is theinvestment of wealthy elites, both at the localand Juba levels, in cattle ownership. In thiscontext, “intercommunal” violence cannot bedissociated from local, regional and nationaldynamics and conflicts.

A third category is comprised of unidentifiedbut related armed elements. These actors, whooften have a historical affiliation withcommunity-based militias and self-defencegroups, have acquired a progressive autonomyfrom their sponsors and now carry out acts ofviolence against civilians from their own orrival communities, without any clear strategicor military objectives. In a context of extremeeconomic deprivation, coupled with thebreakdown of the rule of law and the loss ofpower of traditional institutions, theseunchecked elements contribute to anormalization of insecurity, affecting civiliansin their daily lives.

The distinction between Government forces andorganized armed groups should not obscure theextreme fluidity between and within these entities,whose loyalties may shift according to the formationof alliances of convenience, defections and buy-offs.

During the reporting period, a second category ofperpetrators—community-based militias and self-defence groups—were responsible for 75 per cent ofcivilian victims.

These groups are a longstanding feature ofpastoralist communities across South Sudan,commonly known by various names such as the“white army”, gojam and gelweng. Traditionally,their main objective was to protect herds of cattlefrom external attack. However, as a result of yearsof armed conflict and the resulting illicitproliferation of small arms amongst localcommunities, members of these community-basedmilitias and self-defence groups have been co-opted,armed and used as proxy armed elements by allparties to the conflict and by local actors, which hascontributed to the progressive militarization ofintercommunal violence.

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In Jonglei, HRD found that these groups were armedwith AK-47s. Some elements were also reportedlyequipped with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs),and demonstrated a certain degree of planning and