6
Indices 1st 31st Change December December in (%) 2015 2015 Dear Investor, At the outset, I would like to wish you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous 2016 on behalf of the entire Wiseinvest Advisors team. I thank you for your continued support and the confidence that you have placed in us. We remain committed to provide you investment solutions that not only suit your needs but also help you create the right balance between risk and reward. These are challenging times as the narrative for the stock market changed significantly in 2015. The sentiments remained negative following concerns over US Fed rate hike, slowing growth in Chinese economy and falling crude prices. On the domestic front, the government's failure to get GST and Land bill passed weighed on the market. Similarly, despite 125 basis point rate cut by the RBI, the performance of debt funds has not been on the expected lines as G-sec yields did not follow RBI's rate actions. Besides, the traditional options like fixed deposits and bonds are offering lower return. Even gold, an all time favorite investment option of most Indian investors, has been giving them a tough time. Although the government has made progress on economic reforms front, the scale is no match to what the market was expecting. Consequently, the slow recovery in economic activities resulted in subdued demand and disappointing corporate earnings. However, the steps being taken by the government to boost capital expenditure in infrastructure space are likely to revive economic activity and demand. Moreover, the combination of improving economic data and lower interest rate on account of cooling inflationary pressures make prospects of the market look much better in 2016. While it is natural to get disappointed in the current market like situation, the key is to realize that short term performance of market linked products offered by mutual funds does not reflect their true long-term potential. Therefore, your focus should remain on following the right investment process so that you do not get compelled to act irrationally in such trying times. The heartening thing is to see increasing number of investors continuing with their investments through SIP during these volatile periods. Needless to say, the commitment to your defined time horizon and asset allocation will fetch you handsome returns when the market turns around. Warm regards, Hemant Rustagi Editor The Stock Market Performance During December 2015. Sensex 26,169.41 26,117.54 -0.20 MIDCAP 11,075.83 11,143.08 0.61 SMLCAP 11,689.46 11,836.71 1.26 BSE-100 8,098.30 8,097.57 -0.01 BSE-200 3,374.97 3,377.51 0.08 BSE-500 10,611.64 10,634.22 0.21 Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2016-2018 Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month. Volume 10, Issue 1 January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly publication brought to you by Wiseinvest Advisors, which is a quality investment advisory firm that specializes in mutual funds. Our CEO, Hemant Rustagi, is a well known personal finance expert. He brings with him an experience of more than 25 years in this field. He regularly writes articles for major national dailies and business magazines as well as appears as a personal finance expert on many investments related TV shows. Besides, our team of advisors has professionals who have spent years in the mutual fund industry. In the last eleven years, thousands of our clients have benefitted from our quality advice and have made mutual funds as the mainstay of their portfolio. You can benefit too from our expertise for your existing as well as new investments. All you need to do is to just call up any of the branches or email your requirements at and our professional advisors will do the rest. [email protected] Wealthwise Address to be affixed here 2-3 Equity Outlook 2016: “Strengthening The Core” 4 Performance Of Select Funds 5-6 Impact Of Falling Crude Oil Prices On Indian Economy

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Page 1: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

Indices 1st 31st Change

December December in (%)

2015 2015

Dear Investor,

At the outset, I would like to wish you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous 2016 on behalf of the entire Wiseinvest Advisors team. I thank you for your continued support and the confidence that you have placed in us. We remain committed to provide you investment solutions that not only suit your needs but also help you create the right balance between risk and reward.

These are challenging times as the narrative for the stock market changed significantly in 2015. The sentiments remained negative following concerns over US Fed rate hike, slowing growth in Chinese economy and falling crude prices. On the domestic front, the government's failure to get GST and Land bill passed weighed on the market.

Similarly, despite 125 basis point rate cut by the RBI, the performance of debt funds has not been on the expected lines as G-sec yields did not follow RBI's rate actions. Besides, the traditional options like fixed deposits and bonds are offering lower return. Even gold, an all time favorite investment option of most Indian investors, has been giving them a tough time.

Although the government has made progress on economic reforms front, the scale is no match to what the market was expecting. Consequently, the slow recovery in economic activities resulted in subdued demand and disappointing corporate earnings. However, the steps being taken by the government to boost capital expenditure in infrastructure space are likely to revive economic activity and demand. Moreover, the combination of improving economic data and lower interest rate on account of cooling inflationary pressures make prospects of the market look much better in 2016.

While it is natural to get disappointed in the current market like situation, the key is to realize that short term performance of market linked products offered by mutual funds does not reflect their true long-term potential. Therefore, your focus should remain on following the right investment process so that you do not get compelled to act irrationally in such trying times. The heartening thing is to see increasing number of investors continuing with their investments through SIP during these volatile periods. Needless to say, the commitment to your defined time horizon and asset allocation will fetch you handsome returns when the market turns around.

Warm regards,

Hemant RustagiEditor

The Stock MarketPerformanceDuring December 2015.

Sensex 26,169.41 26,117.54 -0.20

MIDCAP 11,075.83 11,143.08 0.61

SMLCAP 11,689.46 11,836.71 1.26

BSE-100 8,098.30 8,097.57 -0.01

BSE-200 3,374.97 3,377.51 0.08

BSE-500 10,611.64 10,634.22 0.21

Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 • Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2016-2018 • Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month.

Volume 10, Issue 1

January, 2016

A Month ly Publ icat ion f rom Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited

Price ` 2

Inside Pg No.

“Wealthwise” is a monthly publication brought to you by Wiseinvest Advisors, which is a quality investment advisory firm that specializes in mutual funds. Our CEO, Hemant Rustagi, is a well known personal finance expert. He brings with him an experience of more than 25 years in this field. He regularly writes articles for major national dailies and business magazines as well as appears as a personal finance expert on many investments related TV shows. Besides, our team of advisors has professionals who have spent years in the mutual fund industry. In the last eleven years, thousands of our clients have benefitted from our quality advice and have made mutual funds as the mainstay of their portfolio. You can benefit too from our expertise for your existing as well as new investments. All you need to do is to just call up any of the branches or email your requirements at

and our professional advisors will do the [email protected]

Wealthwise

Address to be affixed here

2-3Equity Outlook 2016:“Strengthening The Core”

4Performance Of Select Funds

5-6Impact Of Falling Crude OilPrices On Indian Economy

Page 2: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

January 2016 | Page No. 2

Equity Outlook 2016: “Strengthening The Core”

2015 was a historic year! Almost all asset classes

across the world will close in red. It started with the

Euro depreciation due to its continuation of QE by

ECB. It was followed by Swiss Franc un-pegging

itself from Euro after being pegged for four years. The

Chinese Yuan devalued its currency for the first time in

21 years creating a flutter across Asian currencies.

Malaysian Ringgit touched the 1997 Asian crisis levels. All commodities –

Oil, metals, food articles and precious metals have all fallen in double digits

over the year, most touching multi year lows. There was absolute risk aversion

through out the year much more than what we have seen in 2013 due to Taper

Tantrum. In all this, India stood out. Indian currency and equity markets fell

but they relatively outperformed the emerging & Asian market peers. It can be

stated that India is out of “Fragile Five”.

We stand at the beginning of a new year and try to look into the future. It is

reasonable to expect that the Year 2016 would see yo-yoing of risk perception

in the global markets. We believe that India would perform relatively better

than its peers. On the global front, the first major driver for the markets would

be on the trajectory of Feds fund rate post the first hike this month. We believe

that trajectory would be shallow and totally data dependent. This implies that

it would be the “Loosest Tightening” ever for US. Since Fed would not rock

the cradle of growth they nurtured for over seven years, the US economy &

markets could be strong. The second major driver would be China where the

rebalancing of the economy from investments to consumption is on. It's GDP

growth has been slowing down for five years and it would continue for a few

more years. We expect a soft landing due to the tools available with the central

bank like forex reserves and reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The good news

for India is also that the trade similarity with China is low and hence the

impact from the latter is low. Also, slow down in China implies lower

commodity prices which would help India in building its infrastructure.

Thirdly, for the first time after many years would we see a diverging monetary

policy in the world – US would be in tightening mode while ECB, BoJ and

China would be in loosening mode. We expect that the quantitative easing

from ECB & BoJ would keep the global liquidity buoyant to more than offset

the tightening of the US.

It is a new normal for world growth and inflation. The world would grow at

0.6% slower in next three years than what it was growing for the past 15 years

with inflation slowing by 0.8%. Emerging Markets (EM) will be growing at

1.5% slower with inflation slowing by 1.4%. In the low growth – low inflation

world, India stands out with a 7.5% GDP growth & 5-6% CPI (both

expectations) for next year and slightly faster for subsequent years. The

higher growth potential in addition to strong macro fundamentals, focused

monetary policy and stable government would help India decouple from EM

basket.

Post 2013 Taper Tantrum period, RBI has focused its monetary policy to

contain CPI and government to contain Current Account Deficit (CAD). Both

were able to achieve that with significant support from the falling commodity

prices. We expect the CPI to be marginally up from current level of 5%. WPI

which has been in the negative territory would bounce back to positive zone –

good news for corporate India as it will assist in top line growth. CAD will be

reasonable at 1.3-1.6% of GDP. RBI has cut 125 bps on repo rate in 2015 and

we expect 25-50 bps further rate cut in 2016. The banks have transmitted 70

bps or lower to their borrowers. We expect a further transmission of 50-75 bps

primarily due to rate cuts and change in base rate formula. This will be good

for the corporate sector as cost of borrowing reduces, its interest out go

reduces and credit requirement from the system improves. Thanks to the

rising forex reserves, improving CAD and lower inflation differential to the

world, the Rupee could be relatively stable.

India's GDP would be driven by two engines – Govt. expenditure and

Consumption. The government has given higher budgetary allocations to

some of the capex heavy sectors and would continue to do so in coming years.

The allocation to five sectors – Roads, Railways, Defence, Smart cities and

Renewable energy would go up 2.5 times in next five years compared to

previous five years. Some of the execution models were changed, new

sources of funding used and challenges in execution removed. Government

has been able to achieve quite a few things like auctioning natural resources

successfully, resolving taxation issues for FPIs, opening FDI route to various

sectors, financial inclusion using Aadhaar cards & bank accounts, transfer of

Cont. on page 3...

Page 3: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

Page No. 3 | January 2016

Equity Outlook 2016: “Strengthening The Core”

benefits like fuel subsidy & scholarships directly into bank accounts among

others. It has also initiated quite a few policies which are work in progress. For

instance, the UDAY scheme to resolve the debt issue of SEBs which is

currently joined by ten states. Indradhanush to recapitalize PSU banks and

make them stronger by implementing some structural changes. GST bill to

ease doing business in India by simplifying tax structure. There is also healthy

competition among states to attract capital for investments. The political

parties have realized that the reward for developing their states is a chance to

get re-elected.

On the consumption front, we believe that it would be driven by urban

consumption driven by lower EMIs, higher real wage growth and increased

job security & opportunities. There are some of the high frequency data points

which point to green shoots like the growth in airline traffic, oil consumption,

domestic CV and naukri jo speak index. The coming year will also see

implementation of 7th pay commission by the central government, state

governments and PSUs. A total of 25 mn (approx.) employees & pensioners

will receive over Rs. 3.8 trillion in hand. This would pump up discretionary

demand as in the case of the 6th pay commission and sectors like cars, two

wheelers, ACs, apparel, footwear and housing would get benefitted.

In terms of flows, FPI follows into equity were tepid. It hit a four year low of

USD 3.6 bn. These flows could rebound as and when the global stability

emerges. However, the DII flows have been the strongest in seven years with a

net inflow of USD 9.1 bn. These are primarily driven by mutual funds which

have seen inflow for 19th month in a row. As financial savings increase

moving away from physical savings, continued flow into equities from DIIs is

expected for a long time. Through the FDI route, India has seen record flows

this year – USD 26.7 bn in nine months, due to attractive investment

opportunities the country provides.

On the earnings front, for the past six years, the market participants have been

expecting strong earnings growth at the beginning of the year only to

downgrade steeply by the end of the year. In FY16 also, earnings were

expected to grow in high double digits only to see a revision to single digit

growth after two quarters. This was at the back of four factors – back to back

monsoon failure leading to rural slow down, disinflationary impact on

corporate India due to falling commodity prices, slow transmission of interest

rate cuts and issues with business execution with a couple of companies.

Going into FY17, these factors could reverse. It was the fourth time in 115

years that we have seen back to back monsoon failure and there has never been

a triple monsoon failure. Statistically, monsoon should be normal in 2016.

With deflationary pressures easing off, we expect nominal growth to resume.

Only 70 bps of the 125 bps policy rate cut has been transmitted into the system

and that too in the second half. FY17 will see full benefits of this transmission

along with further transmission due to base rate formula change and rate cuts.

With these in mind, we expect that the trend could reverse in FY17 to clock

earnings growth of 17% with a high degree of probability. With reasonable

valuations and earnings growth, Indian markets provide an opportunity for

sustainable long term wealth creation. Though there could be bouts of

volatility, we believe a patient association with equity will be rewarding. The

key themes we expect to play out are Consumer Discretionary, Private Banks,

NBFCs, Pharmaceuticals and Construction.

While Equities as an asset class has performed well in short period (3 years), it

has lagged in medium term (5 years). There are enough triggers for it to mean

revert to long term returns (20 years). At the same time, there are structural

factors at play which may slow investments in other asset classes like Fixed

Deposits, Real Estate and Gold.

Like the story of the wood cutter who stops to sharpen his axe to cut timber

better, India is doing the all the right things “Strengthening the core” for

consistent and sustainable long term growth!

Happy New Year & Happy investing!

Mahesh R Patil

Co - Chief Investment Officer

Birla Sunlife Mutul Fund.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme

related documents carefully.

...Cont. from page 2

Page 4: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

January 2016 | Page No. 4

Performance Of Select FundsData as on December 24, 2015

Mutual funds, like securities investments, are subject to market and other risks. As with any investments in securities, the NAV of units can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting capital markets.

Please check whether you have received dividend for the fund/s that you may have in your portfolio out of this list. In case, you do not maintain any portfolio statement, Wiseinvest Advisors can do that for you free of charge. Once we have the details, we would send your updated statement every month. You can contact our corporate office or any of the branches to avail of this free service.

Arbitrage FundsICICI Prudential Equity Arbitrage Fund Dec-06 0.43 1.41 2.85 7.68 8.08 8.63 8.76IDFC Arbitrage Plus Fund - Regular Jun-08 0.33 1.26 2.87 7.07 7.35 7.82 7.88Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund Regular Sep-05 0.48 1.43 3.01 7.72 8.30 8.56 8.56Religare Invesco Arbitrage Fund Apr-07 0.42 1.43 3.00 7.78 7.91 7.91 8.11

EQUITY FUNDSDiversified Fund Launch 1-Month* 3-Month* 6-Month* 1-Year* 2-Year** 3-Year** 5-Year**Axis Equity Fund Jan-10 0.32 0.80 -2.59 -1.26 17.59 16.06 10.12Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Aug-02 0.06 0.03 -3.49 2.04 20.74 16.91 10.99Birla Sun Life Equity Fund Aug-98 -0.43 -1.02 -1.03 3.95 26.90 19.99 10.80BNP Paribas Equity Fund Sep-04 0.69 0.47 -2.87 5.79 24.37 19.07 12.84Canara Robeco Equity Diversified Sep-03 0.16 -0.17 -2.86 1.52 18.40 13.70 10.27Franklin India Prima Plus Fund Sep-94 -0.49 -0.16 -1.80 6.20 28.05 20.37 13.86HDFC Equity Fund Jan-95 -0.51 0.23 -4.62 -3.66 21.13 15.32 8.60HDFC Top 200 Fund Sep-96 -0.68 0.13 -4.53 -4.89 17.37 13.03 7.76ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Oct-02 0.48 3.74 -1.91 -0.62 16.43 16.52 10.46ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip May-08 -0.18 0.85 -2.54 0.39 18.32 15.81 10.79Kotak 50 Regular Plan Dec-98 0.18 -0.10 -1.74 5.18 21.44 15.75 9.31Kotak Select Focus Fund Regular Plan Sep-09 -0.33 -0.49 -0.45 3.99 27.11 20.02 12.49L&T Equity Fund May-05 0.12 -0.59 -4.44 1.23 22.60 16.66 9.86Reliance Top 200 Fund - Retail Plan Aug-07 0.33 1.23 -2.32 2.33 25.04 18.07 11.27Religare Invesco Contra Fund Apr-07 0.82 1.73 -0.26 5.30 30.13 21.60 12.71SBI Bluechip Fund Feb-06 0.91 2.23 -0.65 8.93 26.08 19.64 12.64UTI Opportunities Fund Jul-05 -0.61 -1.87 -6.11 -5.19 15.10 12.12 9.67

Sector, Specialty & Tax SavingCanara Robeco F.O.R.C.E Fund Sep-09 0.85 0.24 -2.45 2.62 26.09 15.88 12.42ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund Aug-05 1.19 2.15 -4.12 -0.15 23.73 13.59 4.79Reliance Banking Fund May-03 -1.87 -2.92 -7.24 -5.24 24.34 11.97 8.78Reliance Pharma Fund Jun-04 1.82 -3.00 12.87 22.44 33.82 29.23 21.35Axis Long Term Equity Fund Dec-09 0.90 -1.27 -1.44 7.94 32.83 27.14 18.85HDFC Taxsaver Fund Mar-96 -0.47 0.31 -3.67 -4.78 21.19 16.01 8.90IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund Dec-08 1.42 0.73 -5.57 8.74 23.00 20.01 12.88Reliance Tax Saver Fund Sep-05 2.01 5.32 -2.33 -1.22 33.88 22.91 15.43

Midcap & SmallcapFranklin India Smaller Companies Fund Jan-06 0.97 4.38 4.53 11.87 43.83 33.08 21.61HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Jun-07 1.35 1.86 1.15 8.14 36.49 27.21 18.88ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund Aug-04 -0.92 1.50 -1.26 7.59 35.47 25.97 17.45IDFC Premier Equity Fund - Regular Sep-05 0.84 2.30 0.04 7.97 31.23 22.05 16.18SBI Magnum Global Fund Sep-94 0.45 -0.22 0.26 8.89 34.17 25.76 18.38L&T India Value Fund Jan-10 1.35 3.17 5.53 14.25 40.27 27.85 16.50Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund Mar-05 1.10 1.34 0.27 2.48 26.87 19.27 14.56Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Mar-08 0.94 1.87 -0.03 8.00 35.04 26.71 18.87

HYBRIDEquity, Debt Oriented & Multi Asset ClassBirla Sun Life 95 Fund Feb-95 0.94 1.35 0.72 4.36 23.69 17.75 11.95Canara Robeco Balance Fund Feb-93 0.43 3.57 3.09 7.66 24.69 17.39 13.16HDFC Balanced Fund Sep-00 0.79 1.49 0.50 4.98 25.09 19.60 14.13HDFC Prudence Fund Feb-94 0.57 1.99 1.30 1.74 23.80 16.47 11.57ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Dec-06 0.00 1.67 1.91 7.36 17.35 15.20 13.35ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund Nov-99 0.18 1.79 0.41 3.41 22.00 18.38 14.38L&T India Prudence Fund Jan-11 0.63 1.55 2.88 10.73 26.10 20.20 —Reliance Regular Savings Fund Jun-05 1.66 3.68 3.72 9.92 25.16 17.34 11.84SBI Magnum Balanced Fund Dec-95 0.66 2.50 1.70 8.73 24.27 20.05 12.70Tata Balanced Fund - Regular Plan Oct-95 0.86 0.38 0.02 8.13 26.48 19.64 14.76Axis Triple Advantage Fund Aug-10 -0.25 -2.13 -2.80 0.38 7.91 5.36 7.25Franklin India Dynamic PE Ratio Fund Oct-03 -0.20 0.65 0.70 5.47 14.53 11.11 9.21Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Regular Oct-14 0.30 0.81 1.73 6.67 — — —

International FundsFranklin India Feeder Franklin US Opp. Feb-12 -2.46 2.54 -1.18 8.37 9.16 22.31 —ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Jul-12 -2.24 4.07 -1.49 -0.17 7.34 18.25 —JP Morgan Europe Dynamic Equity Feb-14 1.44 3.66 -4.56 3.17 — — —

*Absolute ** Annualised. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

Income, Short Term & Ultra Short Term Funds Funds Launch 1 Week* 1 Month* 3 Months*6 Months* 1 Year* 2 year** 3 Year**Birla Sun Life Short Term Opp. Fund May-03 0.05 0.46 2.14 4.07 8.56 9.91 9.98Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund Sep-04 -0.14 -0.24 1.17 3.74 8.19 11.26 9.77Kotak Income Opportunities Fund May-10 0.10 0.63 2.42 4.53 8.96 10.01 9.17Religare Invesco Short Term Fund Mar-07 0.02 0.07 1.55 3.63 7.26 8.31 7.75Religare Invesco Bank Debt Fund Dec-12 0.00 0.21 1.55 3.65 6.88 7.75 —Reliance Regular Savings Fund Jun-05 0.15 0.47 2.20 4.12 8.81 9.85 9.25SBI Magnum Income Fund Nov-98 -0.03 -0.12 0.92 3.61 6.48 9.23 7.57L&T Income Opportunities Fund Oct-09 0.10 0.21 2.27 4.42 9.46 10.41 8.81BNP Paribas Flexi Debt Fund Sep-04 -0.15 -0.04 1.10 3.67 7.08 10.47 9.51BNP Paribas Money Plus Fund Oct-05 0.11 0.45 1.85 3.88 8.21 8.37 8.37Kotak Treasury Advantage Fund Aug-04 0.10 0.48 1.94 4.03 8.60 9.01 9.00L&T Ultra Short Term Fund Oct-97 0.11 0.52 2.00 3.99 8.45 8.61 8.60UTI Short Term Income Fund Jun-03 0.08 0.31 2.18 4.20 8.20 9.50 9.32Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund Dec-98 0.12 0.43 1.88 3.93 8.51 9.03 9.35

DEBT

Dividends declared by equity and equity-oriented funds duringthe month of December 2015 Scheme name Date Dividend declared in ̀ Per unit

LIC NOMURA Tax Plan (D) 08/12/2015 0.50

UTI Mid Cap (D) 09/12/2015 4.50

Tata Balanced Fund - Regular (MD) 09/12/2015 0.43

UTI Balanced Fund (D) 09/12/2015 0.50

L&T India Large Cap Fund (D) 11/12/2015 1.30

Templeton India Growth Fund (D) 11/12/2015 5.00

Kotak Balance - Regular Plan (D) 15/12/2015 0.07

JPMorgan India Equity Fund (D) 17/12/2015 0.25

ICICI Pru Blended Plan - A (D) 18/12/2015 0.03

ICICI Pru Equity-Arbitrage- RP (D) 18/12/2015 0.04

Religare Invesco Dynamic Equity (D) 18/12/2015 0.13

Religare Invesco Tax Plan (D) 18/12/2015 2.00

ICICI Pru Balanced Adv (D) 18/12/2015 0.08

ICICI Pru Balanced Fund (D) 18/12/2015 0.15

ICICI Pru Balanced Fund (MD) 18/12/2015 0.15

Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Regular (QD) 21/12/2015 0.15

Union KBC Equity Fund (D) 22/12/2015 1.00

Birla SL Dividend Yield (D) 23/12/2015 0.20

Birla Sun Life 95 Fund (D) 23/12/2015 2.85

Sundaram Tax Saver (D) 24/12/2015 0.50

Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) (D) 28/12/2015 0.45

GOLDFund of Funds Fund Launch 1-Month* 3-Month* 6-Month* 1-Year* 2-Year** 3-Year** 5-Year**Kotak Gold Fund Regular Plan Mar-11 -0.95 -5.07 -4.90 -7.06 -9.44 -8.53 —Reliance Gold Savings Fund Mar-11 -0.76 -4.96 -5.75 -6.61 -9.16 -8.11 —

Page 5: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

Impact Of Falling Crude Oil Prices On Indian Economy

India's key economic variables as well as markets are intricately and inversely

tied to crude oil prices. India has the highest oil import share in total imports

(34%) in the world, making it one of the most affected countries to oil price

shocks. The oil import bill has gone up 6 fold in the last 10 years and has been

one of the key factors behind the deterioration in several macro variables such

as current account balance, fiscal balance and inflation. Much as India has

been at the receiving end for the last several years on account of oil and

broader commodity basket price inflation, India is now poised to be one of the

leading beneficiaries on account of fall in prices of these commodities. The

benefit for India is likely to be felt across many categories in the form of lower

Inflation, better fiscal balance, smaller current account deficit, lower policy

rates and benefits for several sectors.

Implications of lower crude oil prices on various industries

There are multiple beneficiaries of the reduction in the subsidy, the

government, the oil marketing firms and the upstream firms.

The petroleum value chain would witness -

Exploration: Companies with sizeable exposure to exploration activity

would be affected in terms of lower prices and profitability. Any benefit to

these upstream firms is contingent on the government revising the subsidy

sharing mechanism.

Refining: Short term inventory losses due to MTM inventory, although in the

medium term benefits of reduction of working capital. GRM's would depend

on refining capacity addition/utilizations.

Petrochem: Marginal inventory losses. Product spreads will be more driven

by Petrochem capacity addition/utilizations.

Oil lubricants: Being consumer facing, in this case lower base oil prices

would help margins expansion subject to rational competition.

Offshore services: Falling crude rates can result in cut in capex. Daily rates

for offshore rig to come under pressure on account of lower demand and large

supply headwinds. Also segments directly linked with oil capex like seamless

tubes would come under pressure.

We expect the sector to benefit significantly in consumer discretionary

spending on account of lower oil prices.

For consumer companies the benefits are in the form of:

Savings in input cost: Inputs linked to crude as % of revenue for FMCG

companies range between 5% to 30%. EBITDA margin for the companies are

in the range of 11% to 25%. A 10% fall in crude will result in EBITDA growth

of 3% to 23% for our FMCG coverage. Paints, home adhesives are the

immediate beneficiaries.

Savings in freight cost: Freight as a % of revenue for FMCG companies is

between 3 to 6% and for. A 10% fall in crude will result in EBITDA growth of

2% to 6% for our FMCG coverage. Again companies with high distribution

centricity in their business models like biscuits, and paints would be

immediate beneficiaries here.

History suggests that in most cases these companies would increase their

brand investments or pass part of these benefits to consumer for enhancing

market position. This should limit the potential EBITDA improvement.

Oil and Gas

Consumer

Industrials

Construction

Financial Services

Cement

Auto

Telecom

A shift from oil subsidies to productive investments by the government is

positive for the industrial sector as a whole. They will also be a beneficiary of

lower input costs and lower interest rates.

Companies with direct market exposure to the infrastructure investments

value chain servicing the Middle East would be affected more.

Diesel Genset players can benefit from the substitution opportunity due to fall

in the fuel costs.

Construction companies that have exposure to Middle East markets in terms

of the current order book including oil & gas projects, buildings etc can get

impacted in case of stress in these markets.

We expect an increase in domestic savings (government, corporate and

household) due to fall in oil prices which will be beneficial for the financial

services sector as a whole. Apart from this, decline in inflation and interest

rates augur well for the banking system.

There could be slight negative impact of slower credit growth as bank's

lending to fund oil imports would go down.

Improvement in asset quality should benefit CV financiers as the asset start

being cash flow productive on account of cheaper fuel (15%+ of running costs

for the user).

Direct benefit from lower freight costs which are almost 25-30% of the cost

structure for cement companies.

Marginal positive for lower mining costs where diesel is a primary fuel being

used in excavation activity.

Direct demand beneficiary of falling fuel price. Better consumer sentiment

and lower interest rates would further catalyse expansion of the opportunity

here.

Tyre companies would benefit from lower raw material costs of crude

derivatives and synthetic rubber, which constitute ~30-40% of raw material

costs.

Lower fuel prices should prompt use of less efficient vehicles (SUVs, sedans

over hatchbacks). However, historically there doesn't seem to be any direct

correlation.

Cost of diesel comprises 4-5% of sales for Indian telecom operators, mainly to

service the tower infrastructure. Hence, EBITDA margin improves by 45 bps

for every 10% fall in the price of diesel while absolute EBITDA grows by

~1.5%.

Page No. 5 | January 2016

Cont. on page 6...

Page 6: January, 2016 Price Volume 10, Issue 1 A Monthly ...January, 2016 A Monthly Publication from Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited Price ` 2 Inside Pg No. “Wealthwise” is a monthly

January 2016 | Page No. 6

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Airlines

IT

Media

Others

Fuel costs are 40-50% of revenues and 40-50% of opex (excluding leases).

Direct benefits to the operators.

There is no first order impact of fall in crude price. Indirect flow through

benefits possible in travel expense (air fare) which amounts to 2.5-3% of

sales, the pass-through of fall in crude to actual air fare is not directly

measureable.

There is no meaningful impact of fall in crude on broadcasters, newspapers

or distribution companies.

Companies that possess direct exposure, subsidiaries or operations to

countries affected adversely with fall in crude prices or witnessing sharp

currency depreciations (like Russia, Nigeria) would be affected adversely.

Courtesy: SBI Mutual Fund

Disclaimer:

This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell

or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units/securities. These views alone

are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or

implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as

investment advice to any party. In the preparation of this material, SBI Funds

Management Private Limited (the AMC) has used information that is

publically available/information researched in-house / outsourced from

various sources. Information gathered and material used in this document is

believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however, does not warrant

the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. All

opinions and estimates included here constitute our view as of this date and

are subject to change without notice. Neither SBI Funds Management

Private Limited, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability

arising from the use of this information. The recipient of this material should

rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme

related documents carefully.

...Cont. from page 5

Impact Of Falling Crude Oil...

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