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Indices 1st 31st Change
December December in (%)
2015 2015
Dear Investor,
At the outset, I would like to wish you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous 2016 on behalf of the entire Wiseinvest Advisors team. I thank you for your continued support and the confidence that you have placed in us. We remain committed to provide you investment solutions that not only suit your needs but also help you create the right balance between risk and reward.
These are challenging times as the narrative for the stock market changed significantly in 2015. The sentiments remained negative following concerns over US Fed rate hike, slowing growth in Chinese economy and falling crude prices. On the domestic front, the government's failure to get GST and Land bill passed weighed on the market.
Similarly, despite 125 basis point rate cut by the RBI, the performance of debt funds has not been on the expected lines as G-sec yields did not follow RBI's rate actions. Besides, the traditional options like fixed deposits and bonds are offering lower return. Even gold, an all time favorite investment option of most Indian investors, has been giving them a tough time.
Although the government has made progress on economic reforms front, the scale is no match to what the market was expecting. Consequently, the slow recovery in economic activities resulted in subdued demand and disappointing corporate earnings. However, the steps being taken by the government to boost capital expenditure in infrastructure space are likely to revive economic activity and demand. Moreover, the combination of improving economic data and lower interest rate on account of cooling inflationary pressures make prospects of the market look much better in 2016.
While it is natural to get disappointed in the current market like situation, the key is to realize that short term performance of market linked products offered by mutual funds does not reflect their true long-term potential. Therefore, your focus should remain on following the right investment process so that you do not get compelled to act irrationally in such trying times. The heartening thing is to see increasing number of investors continuing with their investments through SIP during these volatile periods. Needless to say, the commitment to your defined time horizon and asset allocation will fetch you handsome returns when the market turns around.
Warm regards,
Hemant RustagiEditor
The Stock MarketPerformanceDuring December 2015.
Sensex 26,169.41 26,117.54 -0.20
MIDCAP 11,075.83 11,143.08 0.61
SMLCAP 11,689.46 11,836.71 1.26
BSE-100 8,098.30 8,097.57 -0.01
BSE-200 3,374.97 3,377.51 0.08
BSE-500 10,611.64 10,634.22 0.21
Registered - R.N.I. No.: MAHENG/2007/19802 • Postal Regd. No.: MCN/72/2016-2018 • Posted at Mumbai Patrika Channel Sorting Office, GPO, Mumbai on 9th & 10th of every month.
Volume 10, Issue 1
January, 2016
A Month ly Publ icat ion f rom Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited
Price ` 2
Inside Pg No.
“Wealthwise” is a monthly publication brought to you by Wiseinvest Advisors, which is a quality investment advisory firm that specializes in mutual funds. Our CEO, Hemant Rustagi, is a well known personal finance expert. He brings with him an experience of more than 25 years in this field. He regularly writes articles for major national dailies and business magazines as well as appears as a personal finance expert on many investments related TV shows. Besides, our team of advisors has professionals who have spent years in the mutual fund industry. In the last eleven years, thousands of our clients have benefitted from our quality advice and have made mutual funds as the mainstay of their portfolio. You can benefit too from our expertise for your existing as well as new investments. All you need to do is to just call up any of the branches or email your requirements at
and our professional advisors will do the [email protected]
Wealthwise
Address to be affixed here
2-3Equity Outlook 2016:“Strengthening The Core”
4Performance Of Select Funds
5-6Impact Of Falling Crude OilPrices On Indian Economy
January 2016 | Page No. 2
Equity Outlook 2016: “Strengthening The Core”
2015 was a historic year! Almost all asset classes
across the world will close in red. It started with the
Euro depreciation due to its continuation of QE by
ECB. It was followed by Swiss Franc un-pegging
itself from Euro after being pegged for four years. The
Chinese Yuan devalued its currency for the first time in
21 years creating a flutter across Asian currencies.
Malaysian Ringgit touched the 1997 Asian crisis levels. All commodities –
Oil, metals, food articles and precious metals have all fallen in double digits
over the year, most touching multi year lows. There was absolute risk aversion
through out the year much more than what we have seen in 2013 due to Taper
Tantrum. In all this, India stood out. Indian currency and equity markets fell
but they relatively outperformed the emerging & Asian market peers. It can be
stated that India is out of “Fragile Five”.
We stand at the beginning of a new year and try to look into the future. It is
reasonable to expect that the Year 2016 would see yo-yoing of risk perception
in the global markets. We believe that India would perform relatively better
than its peers. On the global front, the first major driver for the markets would
be on the trajectory of Feds fund rate post the first hike this month. We believe
that trajectory would be shallow and totally data dependent. This implies that
it would be the “Loosest Tightening” ever for US. Since Fed would not rock
the cradle of growth they nurtured for over seven years, the US economy &
markets could be strong. The second major driver would be China where the
rebalancing of the economy from investments to consumption is on. It's GDP
growth has been slowing down for five years and it would continue for a few
more years. We expect a soft landing due to the tools available with the central
bank like forex reserves and reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The good news
for India is also that the trade similarity with China is low and hence the
impact from the latter is low. Also, slow down in China implies lower
commodity prices which would help India in building its infrastructure.
Thirdly, for the first time after many years would we see a diverging monetary
policy in the world – US would be in tightening mode while ECB, BoJ and
China would be in loosening mode. We expect that the quantitative easing
from ECB & BoJ would keep the global liquidity buoyant to more than offset
the tightening of the US.
It is a new normal for world growth and inflation. The world would grow at
0.6% slower in next three years than what it was growing for the past 15 years
with inflation slowing by 0.8%. Emerging Markets (EM) will be growing at
1.5% slower with inflation slowing by 1.4%. In the low growth – low inflation
world, India stands out with a 7.5% GDP growth & 5-6% CPI (both
expectations) for next year and slightly faster for subsequent years. The
higher growth potential in addition to strong macro fundamentals, focused
monetary policy and stable government would help India decouple from EM
basket.
Post 2013 Taper Tantrum period, RBI has focused its monetary policy to
contain CPI and government to contain Current Account Deficit (CAD). Both
were able to achieve that with significant support from the falling commodity
prices. We expect the CPI to be marginally up from current level of 5%. WPI
which has been in the negative territory would bounce back to positive zone –
good news for corporate India as it will assist in top line growth. CAD will be
reasonable at 1.3-1.6% of GDP. RBI has cut 125 bps on repo rate in 2015 and
we expect 25-50 bps further rate cut in 2016. The banks have transmitted 70
bps or lower to their borrowers. We expect a further transmission of 50-75 bps
primarily due to rate cuts and change in base rate formula. This will be good
for the corporate sector as cost of borrowing reduces, its interest out go
reduces and credit requirement from the system improves. Thanks to the
rising forex reserves, improving CAD and lower inflation differential to the
world, the Rupee could be relatively stable.
India's GDP would be driven by two engines – Govt. expenditure and
Consumption. The government has given higher budgetary allocations to
some of the capex heavy sectors and would continue to do so in coming years.
The allocation to five sectors – Roads, Railways, Defence, Smart cities and
Renewable energy would go up 2.5 times in next five years compared to
previous five years. Some of the execution models were changed, new
sources of funding used and challenges in execution removed. Government
has been able to achieve quite a few things like auctioning natural resources
successfully, resolving taxation issues for FPIs, opening FDI route to various
sectors, financial inclusion using Aadhaar cards & bank accounts, transfer of
Cont. on page 3...
Page No. 3 | January 2016
Equity Outlook 2016: “Strengthening The Core”
benefits like fuel subsidy & scholarships directly into bank accounts among
others. It has also initiated quite a few policies which are work in progress. For
instance, the UDAY scheme to resolve the debt issue of SEBs which is
currently joined by ten states. Indradhanush to recapitalize PSU banks and
make them stronger by implementing some structural changes. GST bill to
ease doing business in India by simplifying tax structure. There is also healthy
competition among states to attract capital for investments. The political
parties have realized that the reward for developing their states is a chance to
get re-elected.
On the consumption front, we believe that it would be driven by urban
consumption driven by lower EMIs, higher real wage growth and increased
job security & opportunities. There are some of the high frequency data points
which point to green shoots like the growth in airline traffic, oil consumption,
domestic CV and naukri jo speak index. The coming year will also see
implementation of 7th pay commission by the central government, state
governments and PSUs. A total of 25 mn (approx.) employees & pensioners
will receive over Rs. 3.8 trillion in hand. This would pump up discretionary
demand as in the case of the 6th pay commission and sectors like cars, two
wheelers, ACs, apparel, footwear and housing would get benefitted.
In terms of flows, FPI follows into equity were tepid. It hit a four year low of
USD 3.6 bn. These flows could rebound as and when the global stability
emerges. However, the DII flows have been the strongest in seven years with a
net inflow of USD 9.1 bn. These are primarily driven by mutual funds which
have seen inflow for 19th month in a row. As financial savings increase
moving away from physical savings, continued flow into equities from DIIs is
expected for a long time. Through the FDI route, India has seen record flows
this year – USD 26.7 bn in nine months, due to attractive investment
opportunities the country provides.
On the earnings front, for the past six years, the market participants have been
expecting strong earnings growth at the beginning of the year only to
downgrade steeply by the end of the year. In FY16 also, earnings were
expected to grow in high double digits only to see a revision to single digit
growth after two quarters. This was at the back of four factors – back to back
monsoon failure leading to rural slow down, disinflationary impact on
corporate India due to falling commodity prices, slow transmission of interest
rate cuts and issues with business execution with a couple of companies.
Going into FY17, these factors could reverse. It was the fourth time in 115
years that we have seen back to back monsoon failure and there has never been
a triple monsoon failure. Statistically, monsoon should be normal in 2016.
With deflationary pressures easing off, we expect nominal growth to resume.
Only 70 bps of the 125 bps policy rate cut has been transmitted into the system
and that too in the second half. FY17 will see full benefits of this transmission
along with further transmission due to base rate formula change and rate cuts.
With these in mind, we expect that the trend could reverse in FY17 to clock
earnings growth of 17% with a high degree of probability. With reasonable
valuations and earnings growth, Indian markets provide an opportunity for
sustainable long term wealth creation. Though there could be bouts of
volatility, we believe a patient association with equity will be rewarding. The
key themes we expect to play out are Consumer Discretionary, Private Banks,
NBFCs, Pharmaceuticals and Construction.
While Equities as an asset class has performed well in short period (3 years), it
has lagged in medium term (5 years). There are enough triggers for it to mean
revert to long term returns (20 years). At the same time, there are structural
factors at play which may slow investments in other asset classes like Fixed
Deposits, Real Estate and Gold.
Like the story of the wood cutter who stops to sharpen his axe to cut timber
better, India is doing the all the right things “Strengthening the core” for
consistent and sustainable long term growth!
Happy New Year & Happy investing!
Mahesh R Patil
Co - Chief Investment Officer
Birla Sunlife Mutul Fund.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme
related documents carefully.
...Cont. from page 2
January 2016 | Page No. 4
Performance Of Select FundsData as on December 24, 2015
Mutual funds, like securities investments, are subject to market and other risks. As with any investments in securities, the NAV of units can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting capital markets.
Please check whether you have received dividend for the fund/s that you may have in your portfolio out of this list. In case, you do not maintain any portfolio statement, Wiseinvest Advisors can do that for you free of charge. Once we have the details, we would send your updated statement every month. You can contact our corporate office or any of the branches to avail of this free service.
Arbitrage FundsICICI Prudential Equity Arbitrage Fund Dec-06 0.43 1.41 2.85 7.68 8.08 8.63 8.76IDFC Arbitrage Plus Fund - Regular Jun-08 0.33 1.26 2.87 7.07 7.35 7.82 7.88Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund Regular Sep-05 0.48 1.43 3.01 7.72 8.30 8.56 8.56Religare Invesco Arbitrage Fund Apr-07 0.42 1.43 3.00 7.78 7.91 7.91 8.11
EQUITY FUNDSDiversified Fund Launch 1-Month* 3-Month* 6-Month* 1-Year* 2-Year** 3-Year** 5-Year**Axis Equity Fund Jan-10 0.32 0.80 -2.59 -1.26 17.59 16.06 10.12Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Aug-02 0.06 0.03 -3.49 2.04 20.74 16.91 10.99Birla Sun Life Equity Fund Aug-98 -0.43 -1.02 -1.03 3.95 26.90 19.99 10.80BNP Paribas Equity Fund Sep-04 0.69 0.47 -2.87 5.79 24.37 19.07 12.84Canara Robeco Equity Diversified Sep-03 0.16 -0.17 -2.86 1.52 18.40 13.70 10.27Franklin India Prima Plus Fund Sep-94 -0.49 -0.16 -1.80 6.20 28.05 20.37 13.86HDFC Equity Fund Jan-95 -0.51 0.23 -4.62 -3.66 21.13 15.32 8.60HDFC Top 200 Fund Sep-96 -0.68 0.13 -4.53 -4.89 17.37 13.03 7.76ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Oct-02 0.48 3.74 -1.91 -0.62 16.43 16.52 10.46ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip May-08 -0.18 0.85 -2.54 0.39 18.32 15.81 10.79Kotak 50 Regular Plan Dec-98 0.18 -0.10 -1.74 5.18 21.44 15.75 9.31Kotak Select Focus Fund Regular Plan Sep-09 -0.33 -0.49 -0.45 3.99 27.11 20.02 12.49L&T Equity Fund May-05 0.12 -0.59 -4.44 1.23 22.60 16.66 9.86Reliance Top 200 Fund - Retail Plan Aug-07 0.33 1.23 -2.32 2.33 25.04 18.07 11.27Religare Invesco Contra Fund Apr-07 0.82 1.73 -0.26 5.30 30.13 21.60 12.71SBI Bluechip Fund Feb-06 0.91 2.23 -0.65 8.93 26.08 19.64 12.64UTI Opportunities Fund Jul-05 -0.61 -1.87 -6.11 -5.19 15.10 12.12 9.67
Sector, Specialty & Tax SavingCanara Robeco F.O.R.C.E Fund Sep-09 0.85 0.24 -2.45 2.62 26.09 15.88 12.42ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund Aug-05 1.19 2.15 -4.12 -0.15 23.73 13.59 4.79Reliance Banking Fund May-03 -1.87 -2.92 -7.24 -5.24 24.34 11.97 8.78Reliance Pharma Fund Jun-04 1.82 -3.00 12.87 22.44 33.82 29.23 21.35Axis Long Term Equity Fund Dec-09 0.90 -1.27 -1.44 7.94 32.83 27.14 18.85HDFC Taxsaver Fund Mar-96 -0.47 0.31 -3.67 -4.78 21.19 16.01 8.90IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund Dec-08 1.42 0.73 -5.57 8.74 23.00 20.01 12.88Reliance Tax Saver Fund Sep-05 2.01 5.32 -2.33 -1.22 33.88 22.91 15.43
Midcap & SmallcapFranklin India Smaller Companies Fund Jan-06 0.97 4.38 4.53 11.87 43.83 33.08 21.61HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Jun-07 1.35 1.86 1.15 8.14 36.49 27.21 18.88ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund Aug-04 -0.92 1.50 -1.26 7.59 35.47 25.97 17.45IDFC Premier Equity Fund - Regular Sep-05 0.84 2.30 0.04 7.97 31.23 22.05 16.18SBI Magnum Global Fund Sep-94 0.45 -0.22 0.26 8.89 34.17 25.76 18.38L&T India Value Fund Jan-10 1.35 3.17 5.53 14.25 40.27 27.85 16.50Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund Mar-05 1.10 1.34 0.27 2.48 26.87 19.27 14.56Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Mar-08 0.94 1.87 -0.03 8.00 35.04 26.71 18.87
HYBRIDEquity, Debt Oriented & Multi Asset ClassBirla Sun Life 95 Fund Feb-95 0.94 1.35 0.72 4.36 23.69 17.75 11.95Canara Robeco Balance Fund Feb-93 0.43 3.57 3.09 7.66 24.69 17.39 13.16HDFC Balanced Fund Sep-00 0.79 1.49 0.50 4.98 25.09 19.60 14.13HDFC Prudence Fund Feb-94 0.57 1.99 1.30 1.74 23.80 16.47 11.57ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Dec-06 0.00 1.67 1.91 7.36 17.35 15.20 13.35ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund Nov-99 0.18 1.79 0.41 3.41 22.00 18.38 14.38L&T India Prudence Fund Jan-11 0.63 1.55 2.88 10.73 26.10 20.20 —Reliance Regular Savings Fund Jun-05 1.66 3.68 3.72 9.92 25.16 17.34 11.84SBI Magnum Balanced Fund Dec-95 0.66 2.50 1.70 8.73 24.27 20.05 12.70Tata Balanced Fund - Regular Plan Oct-95 0.86 0.38 0.02 8.13 26.48 19.64 14.76Axis Triple Advantage Fund Aug-10 -0.25 -2.13 -2.80 0.38 7.91 5.36 7.25Franklin India Dynamic PE Ratio Fund Oct-03 -0.20 0.65 0.70 5.47 14.53 11.11 9.21Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Regular Oct-14 0.30 0.81 1.73 6.67 — — —
International FundsFranklin India Feeder Franklin US Opp. Feb-12 -2.46 2.54 -1.18 8.37 9.16 22.31 —ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Jul-12 -2.24 4.07 -1.49 -0.17 7.34 18.25 —JP Morgan Europe Dynamic Equity Feb-14 1.44 3.66 -4.56 3.17 — — —
*Absolute ** Annualised. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Income, Short Term & Ultra Short Term Funds Funds Launch 1 Week* 1 Month* 3 Months*6 Months* 1 Year* 2 year** 3 Year**Birla Sun Life Short Term Opp. Fund May-03 0.05 0.46 2.14 4.07 8.56 9.91 9.98Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund Sep-04 -0.14 -0.24 1.17 3.74 8.19 11.26 9.77Kotak Income Opportunities Fund May-10 0.10 0.63 2.42 4.53 8.96 10.01 9.17Religare Invesco Short Term Fund Mar-07 0.02 0.07 1.55 3.63 7.26 8.31 7.75Religare Invesco Bank Debt Fund Dec-12 0.00 0.21 1.55 3.65 6.88 7.75 —Reliance Regular Savings Fund Jun-05 0.15 0.47 2.20 4.12 8.81 9.85 9.25SBI Magnum Income Fund Nov-98 -0.03 -0.12 0.92 3.61 6.48 9.23 7.57L&T Income Opportunities Fund Oct-09 0.10 0.21 2.27 4.42 9.46 10.41 8.81BNP Paribas Flexi Debt Fund Sep-04 -0.15 -0.04 1.10 3.67 7.08 10.47 9.51BNP Paribas Money Plus Fund Oct-05 0.11 0.45 1.85 3.88 8.21 8.37 8.37Kotak Treasury Advantage Fund Aug-04 0.10 0.48 1.94 4.03 8.60 9.01 9.00L&T Ultra Short Term Fund Oct-97 0.11 0.52 2.00 3.99 8.45 8.61 8.60UTI Short Term Income Fund Jun-03 0.08 0.31 2.18 4.20 8.20 9.50 9.32Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund Dec-98 0.12 0.43 1.88 3.93 8.51 9.03 9.35
DEBT
Dividends declared by equity and equity-oriented funds duringthe month of December 2015 Scheme name Date Dividend declared in ̀ Per unit
LIC NOMURA Tax Plan (D) 08/12/2015 0.50
UTI Mid Cap (D) 09/12/2015 4.50
Tata Balanced Fund - Regular (MD) 09/12/2015 0.43
UTI Balanced Fund (D) 09/12/2015 0.50
L&T India Large Cap Fund (D) 11/12/2015 1.30
Templeton India Growth Fund (D) 11/12/2015 5.00
Kotak Balance - Regular Plan (D) 15/12/2015 0.07
JPMorgan India Equity Fund (D) 17/12/2015 0.25
ICICI Pru Blended Plan - A (D) 18/12/2015 0.03
ICICI Pru Equity-Arbitrage- RP (D) 18/12/2015 0.04
Religare Invesco Dynamic Equity (D) 18/12/2015 0.13
Religare Invesco Tax Plan (D) 18/12/2015 2.00
ICICI Pru Balanced Adv (D) 18/12/2015 0.08
ICICI Pru Balanced Fund (D) 18/12/2015 0.15
ICICI Pru Balanced Fund (MD) 18/12/2015 0.15
Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Regular (QD) 21/12/2015 0.15
Union KBC Equity Fund (D) 22/12/2015 1.00
Birla SL Dividend Yield (D) 23/12/2015 0.20
Birla Sun Life 95 Fund (D) 23/12/2015 2.85
Sundaram Tax Saver (D) 24/12/2015 0.50
Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) (D) 28/12/2015 0.45
GOLDFund of Funds Fund Launch 1-Month* 3-Month* 6-Month* 1-Year* 2-Year** 3-Year** 5-Year**Kotak Gold Fund Regular Plan Mar-11 -0.95 -5.07 -4.90 -7.06 -9.44 -8.53 —Reliance Gold Savings Fund Mar-11 -0.76 -4.96 -5.75 -6.61 -9.16 -8.11 —
Impact Of Falling Crude Oil Prices On Indian Economy
India's key economic variables as well as markets are intricately and inversely
tied to crude oil prices. India has the highest oil import share in total imports
(34%) in the world, making it one of the most affected countries to oil price
shocks. The oil import bill has gone up 6 fold in the last 10 years and has been
one of the key factors behind the deterioration in several macro variables such
as current account balance, fiscal balance and inflation. Much as India has
been at the receiving end for the last several years on account of oil and
broader commodity basket price inflation, India is now poised to be one of the
leading beneficiaries on account of fall in prices of these commodities. The
benefit for India is likely to be felt across many categories in the form of lower
Inflation, better fiscal balance, smaller current account deficit, lower policy
rates and benefits for several sectors.
Implications of lower crude oil prices on various industries
There are multiple beneficiaries of the reduction in the subsidy, the
government, the oil marketing firms and the upstream firms.
The petroleum value chain would witness -
Exploration: Companies with sizeable exposure to exploration activity
would be affected in terms of lower prices and profitability. Any benefit to
these upstream firms is contingent on the government revising the subsidy
sharing mechanism.
Refining: Short term inventory losses due to MTM inventory, although in the
medium term benefits of reduction of working capital. GRM's would depend
on refining capacity addition/utilizations.
Petrochem: Marginal inventory losses. Product spreads will be more driven
by Petrochem capacity addition/utilizations.
Oil lubricants: Being consumer facing, in this case lower base oil prices
would help margins expansion subject to rational competition.
Offshore services: Falling crude rates can result in cut in capex. Daily rates
for offshore rig to come under pressure on account of lower demand and large
supply headwinds. Also segments directly linked with oil capex like seamless
tubes would come under pressure.
We expect the sector to benefit significantly in consumer discretionary
spending on account of lower oil prices.
For consumer companies the benefits are in the form of:
Savings in input cost: Inputs linked to crude as % of revenue for FMCG
companies range between 5% to 30%. EBITDA margin for the companies are
in the range of 11% to 25%. A 10% fall in crude will result in EBITDA growth
of 3% to 23% for our FMCG coverage. Paints, home adhesives are the
immediate beneficiaries.
Savings in freight cost: Freight as a % of revenue for FMCG companies is
between 3 to 6% and for. A 10% fall in crude will result in EBITDA growth of
2% to 6% for our FMCG coverage. Again companies with high distribution
centricity in their business models like biscuits, and paints would be
immediate beneficiaries here.
History suggests that in most cases these companies would increase their
brand investments or pass part of these benefits to consumer for enhancing
market position. This should limit the potential EBITDA improvement.
Oil and Gas
Consumer
Industrials
Construction
Financial Services
Cement
Auto
Telecom
A shift from oil subsidies to productive investments by the government is
positive for the industrial sector as a whole. They will also be a beneficiary of
lower input costs and lower interest rates.
Companies with direct market exposure to the infrastructure investments
value chain servicing the Middle East would be affected more.
Diesel Genset players can benefit from the substitution opportunity due to fall
in the fuel costs.
Construction companies that have exposure to Middle East markets in terms
of the current order book including oil & gas projects, buildings etc can get
impacted in case of stress in these markets.
We expect an increase in domestic savings (government, corporate and
household) due to fall in oil prices which will be beneficial for the financial
services sector as a whole. Apart from this, decline in inflation and interest
rates augur well for the banking system.
There could be slight negative impact of slower credit growth as bank's
lending to fund oil imports would go down.
Improvement in asset quality should benefit CV financiers as the asset start
being cash flow productive on account of cheaper fuel (15%+ of running costs
for the user).
Direct benefit from lower freight costs which are almost 25-30% of the cost
structure for cement companies.
Marginal positive for lower mining costs where diesel is a primary fuel being
used in excavation activity.
Direct demand beneficiary of falling fuel price. Better consumer sentiment
and lower interest rates would further catalyse expansion of the opportunity
here.
Tyre companies would benefit from lower raw material costs of crude
derivatives and synthetic rubber, which constitute ~30-40% of raw material
costs.
Lower fuel prices should prompt use of less efficient vehicles (SUVs, sedans
over hatchbacks). However, historically there doesn't seem to be any direct
correlation.
Cost of diesel comprises 4-5% of sales for Indian telecom operators, mainly to
service the tower infrastructure. Hence, EBITDA margin improves by 45 bps
for every 10% fall in the price of diesel while absolute EBITDA grows by
~1.5%.
Page No. 5 | January 2016
Cont. on page 6...
January 2016 | Page No. 6
DISCLAIMER: All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is neither misleading nor untrue at the time of publication, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. All information is provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of Wiseinvest Advisors Private Limited.
RISK FACTORS: Mutual funds, like securities investments, are subject to market and other risks and there can be no assurance that the scheme's objectives will be achieved. As with any investments in securities, the NAV of units can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting capital markets. Please read the offer document before investing.
Edited, Published and Printed by Mr. Hemant Rustagi, on behalf of Wiseinvest Advisors Pvt. Ltd. from 202, Shalimar Morya Park, New Link Road, Andheri West, Mumbai 400053 at AdvantEdge Offset Printers, K-7 Rizvi Park, S V Road , Santacruz (W), Mumbai 400 054. Design by Mosaic Design. Copyright reserved © 2007. All rights reserved in favour of Wiseinvest Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
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WISEINVEST ADVISORS PVT. LTD.
Date of Publication: 5th of every month.
(CIN No.: U74140MH2003PTC142921)
Airlines
IT
Media
Others
Fuel costs are 40-50% of revenues and 40-50% of opex (excluding leases).
Direct benefits to the operators.
There is no first order impact of fall in crude price. Indirect flow through
benefits possible in travel expense (air fare) which amounts to 2.5-3% of
sales, the pass-through of fall in crude to actual air fare is not directly
measureable.
There is no meaningful impact of fall in crude on broadcasters, newspapers
or distribution companies.
Companies that possess direct exposure, subsidiaries or operations to
countries affected adversely with fall in crude prices or witnessing sharp
currency depreciations (like Russia, Nigeria) would be affected adversely.
Courtesy: SBI Mutual Fund
Disclaimer:
This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell
or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units/securities. These views alone
are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or
implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as
investment advice to any party. In the preparation of this material, SBI Funds
Management Private Limited (the AMC) has used information that is
publically available/information researched in-house / outsourced from
various sources. Information gathered and material used in this document is
believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however, does not warrant
the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. All
opinions and estimates included here constitute our view as of this date and
are subject to change without notice. Neither SBI Funds Management
Private Limited, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability
arising from the use of this information. The recipient of this material should
rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme
related documents carefully.
...Cont. from page 5
Impact Of Falling Crude Oil...
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