James Hansen Chapel Hill

8/14/2019 James Hansen Chapel Hill

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Global Climate Change

What Must We DoNow?*

James Hansen

1 February 2010

University of North Carolina

Chapel Hill, NC

*Statements relating to policy are


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Climate Tipping Points

1. Ice Sheet Disintegration

- Ocean Warming Ice Shelves Melt Ice Streams Surge Disintegration

2. Species Extermination- Shifting Climate Zones, MultipleStresses, Species Interdependencies

3. Methane Hydrate frozen methane- In Tundra & On Continental Shelves

- Depends On Ocean & Ice Sheets


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First grandchild, Sophie at age almost two years


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Analysis of global surface temperature change. Green vertical bar is

estimated 95 percent confidence range. Base period = 1951-1980.


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60-month (5-year) and 132-month (11-year) mean temperature anomaly

relative to 1951-1980 mean. Input data extend through December 2009.Source: Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022,1999.


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Surface temperature anomalies in (a) Dec and (b) Jun-Jul-Aug 2009 relative to 1951-198

Source: Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.


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Positive AO: low pressure in Arctic, strong zonal winds keep cold air confined to Arctic.

Negative AO: high pressure in Arctic, weak zonal winds facilitate cold air outbreaks.

December 2009


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Basis of Understanding

1. Earths Paleoclimate History

2. On-Going Global Changes

3. Climate Models

(note: modeling #3, but aids othertwo)


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50 million years ago (50 MYA) Earth was ice-free.

Atmospheric CO2 amount was of the order of 1000 ppm 50 MYA.

Atmospheric CO2 imbalance due to plate tectonics ~ 10-4 ppm per year.


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Earths history provides important information on global warming.

Recorded human history occurs within the Holocene warm period.


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CO2,CH4 and

estimated globaltemperature

(Antarctic T/2

in ice core era)

0 = 1880-1899

mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim.

Change, 68, 269, 2005.


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Source: Earth's

energy imbalance:

Confirmation and

implications. Science

308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Forcings

used to driveclimatesimulations.

(B) Simulatedand observedsurface

temperaturechange.


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(B) Ocean heat gainin the top 750 mof world ocean.

Source: Hansen et al.,

Science, 308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Net Radiation attop of atmosphere in

climate simulations.


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Heat storage in upper 2000 meters of ocean during 2003-2008 based on ARGO data(Schuckmann et al. J. Geophys. Res. 114, C09007, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237, 2009)


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2 0 0 7

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Y e a r

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

T

o

ta

l

M

e

lt

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re

a

(1

0

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k

m

2

)

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 01 9 8 1

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 32 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

1 9 9 2

S f M lt G l d


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Melt descending

into a moulin,

a vertical shaft

carrying water

to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite,

University of Manchester (UK)

Surface Melt on Greenland


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Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland

Discharge from major

Greenland ice streams

is accelerating markedly.

Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen,

Univ. of Colorado


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Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.


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Pier on Lake Mead


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Subtropics are expected to expand with global warming.

Observations show, on average, 4 degrees of latitude expansion.

Pier on Lake Mead


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Coral Reef off Fiji(Photo credit: Kevin Roland)

Stresses on Coral Reefs


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Target CO2:

< 350 ppmTo preserve creation, the planeton which civilization developed


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Scenarios assume no Other = Tar Sands, Oil Shale, Methane HydratesCoal phase-out by 2030 peak CO2 ~400-425 ppm, depending on oil/gas.Faster return below 350 ppm requires additional actions

Source: Hansen et al., Target atmospheric CO2: where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, 2008.


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Whats Really Happening (USA)

1. Tar Sands agreement with CanadaPipeline planned to transport oil

2. Oil Shale under developmentTwice CO2/energy of conventional oil

3. New Coal-fired power plants

Rationalized by Clean Coal mirage

4. Mountaintop removal proceeds

Destroys wind potential of mountains

Global Action Status


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Global Action Status

1. Huge Gap: Rhetoric & Reality

- Rhetoric: Planet in Peril- Reality: Small Perturbations to BAU

2.Greenwash/Disinformation Winning- Appeasement of Fossil Interests- Still Waiting for a Winston Churchill

3.Kyoto & Copenhagen Fiascos- Kyoto accelerating emissions- Copenhagen same indulgences

Problem & Solution


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Problem & Solution

1. Fossil Fuels are Cheapest Energy

- Subsidized & Do Not Pay Costs- Solution: Rising Price on Carbon

2.Regulations also Required- Efficiency of Vehicles, Buildings,e.g.- Carbon Price Provides Enforcement

3.Technology Development Needed- Driven by Certainty of Carbon Price- Government Role Limited

F & Di id d


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Fee & Dividend

1. Fee Applied at First Sale/Port of Entry

Covers all Oil, Gas, Coal No Leakage2. Fee Specified: No Speculation, No Volatility

No Wall Street Millionaires at Public Expense

3. Fee & Dividend (vs. Cap-and-Trade)

Not One Dime to Goldman-Sachs et al.

Can be Implemented in Months

Market Chooses Technology Winners

British Columbia Example: Public Likes It


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Carbon Fee & 100% Dividend

(consider: $115/ton CO2 = $1/gal. gas)

1.Yield ~ $670B (U.S. example)

2. Dividend (bank acct or debit card)

Adult Legal Resident

($250/month = $3000/year)Family with 2 Children

($750/month = $9000/year)

F & Di id d Add


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Fee & Dividend Addresses

1. Economy: Stimulates ItPuts Money in Publics Hands A Lot!

2. Energy: Fossil Fuel Addiction

Fastest Route to Clean Energy Future

3. ClimateOnly Internationally Viable Approach - -

Zero Chance of China/India Accepting a Cap

Would Result in Most Coal & UnconventionalFossil Fuels, some Oil left in the Ground


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Universality, Fairness

1. Fees almost Universally Beneficial No Country Covets Fossil Fuel Addiction

2. Duties on Products from no-fee AreasUse for Mitigation/Adaptation Aid

3. Fairness: Reward Best Practices

Use Duties preferentially for Countries that

address Population (e.g., womens education)


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So Whats the Problem Today?

1. Fossil Fuels Still Priced LowestFossil Fuels Subsidized

No Charge for Damages (Health, etc.)

2. Governments Under Fossil Thumbs Greenwash Instead of Leadership

3. Revolving Door in Washington Hatch Schemes for Business-as-UsualFavoring Big Banks, Fossil Fuel Industry


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Cap-and-Trade-and-Offsets

1. Cap Approach Cant Go GlobalChina & India will never accept caps

2. Cap Dishonest: Pretends at Low Cost Actually expensive (very inefficient)

3. Cap Comes with Offsets

Actual GHG reductions small

4. Cap causes Volatile Carbon Price

Discourage business/consumer investing


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caption

Jake: Youre on your own baby Good Luck!


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Jake: You re on your own baby Good Luck!

I t ti l J ti


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Intergenerational JusticeJefferson to Madison: self-evident that the

Earth belongs in usufruct to the living*

Native Americans: obligation to 7th generation

Larry King: nobody cares about 50 yearsfrom now

Governments (with fossil interests): we can

set emissions at whatever level we choose

Public: when will it become involved?

*Legal right to use something belonging to another


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Strategic Options

1. Dialogue with Governments, but:Their Perspective is Short-Term

Undue Sway of Money (lobbyists)

2. Courts

Common law We are enjoying use ofproperty that belongs to others

3. Public Protests and Actions

Seem Necessary, Are Growing

But Public has Other Concerns

W b Sit


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Web Site

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1includes

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where ShouldHumanity Aim?

Global Warming Twenty Years Later:

Tipping Points NearIn Defence of Kingsnorth Six


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Free Will Alternative

1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions- by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries

2. Rising Carbon Price

- discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction

of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.)

3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration

- improved farming & forestry practices

4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings- reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot


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Technical Priorities1. Energy Efficiency

Standards & Carbon Tax Needed

2. Renewable Energies

Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biomass

3. Next Generations of Nuclear Power 3rd Gen.: increased safety

4th Gen.: burns waste, efficiency X 100

4. Carbon Capture & Sequestration Cost, Coal Problems Remain, Use w Biofuels?

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdfhttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/ECWorkshop_report.pdf

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James Hansen Chapel Hill