J Street Volume 291

8/18/2019 J Street Volume 291

1/10

ex

rket View

1

mpany Update 2

und the

nomy 3

wledge Corner 3

tual Fund 4

mmodity Corner 5

ex Corner 6

ort Card 7

rt Term Call Status 8

or & Contributor

rgi Shah

cial Contributors

esh Trivedi

tya Nahar

suggestions, feedback

queries

[email protected]

Market View:

The result season has started with bang

Last Saturday, we have stated that the market is ready to conquer the 200 dma and the 200

crossed convincingly during last week. The next trigger for the market is the earnings of quarter f

the basis of global recovery and some steps taken by the government coupled with low com

prices, the earnings of quarter four seems to be on the track and even better than expectations.

and TCS have beaten the expectations of the market. Reliance Industries has also fared well

GRM is sustained with positive bias. The expectation from the PSU banks is also quite

considering the improved NPA scenario. Private sector banking giant HDFC Bank has also a

remarkable growth and given a reasonably good guidance.

Considering the monsoon situation and Indian consumption story backed by ongoing gove

reforms, it is still a buy on dip market with medium to long term view. The Chinese economy i

concern for the world market which may pose temporary hurdles to the world market including e

economies. Technically any sustained rise above 7950 will take the market beyond 8000 with

support at 7600.

K a m a l J h a v e r i

M D - J h a v e r i S e c u r i t i e s

1 -

291April,2016


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2-

Company Basics

E Code 538268

E Symbol WONDERLA

UITY ( in Cr.) 56.50

T.CAP ( in Cr.) 2182.90

Financial Basics

FV ( ) 10.00

EPS ( ) (TTM) 10.41

P/E (x) (TTM) 37.11

P/BV (x) (TTM) 5.51

BETA 0.6705

RONW (%) 20.00

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name % Holdin

Foreign 12.38

Institutions 4.38

Promoters 70.99

Non. Promoters 0.00

Public & Others 9.01

Govt Holding 3.25

mpany Overview

nderla Holidays is one of the largest operators of amusement parks in India, which owns and operates two park

brand name “Wonderla”, situated at Kochi , Bangalore, Hyderabad. In FY16, it had a cumulative annual foot

mpany has also developed the Wonderla Resort in Bangalore, a Three Star leisure resort, next to its amusemen

mprising of 84 luxury rooms.

estment rational

onderla Hyderabad”- next feather in Wonderla ’s kitty

nderla', the third theme park from Wonderla Holidays in the country and the first in the State, is built in 50 acres

h an investment of Rs. 250 crore. It has 43 attractions, which include 25 land based and 18 water based rides. A

ping roller coaster imported from Netherlands, and space themed flying theatre that is yet to be opened, would

or attractions. Management plans to launch a fourth park in Chennai at a cost of Rs. 300 Cr. , that would be their

me based amusement park.

ong operating experience - a key requirement as Operator

L ’s management has rich operating experience in operating the park, which is the key requirement for successustry. The first park was opened in Kochi in 2000 and the next one in Bangalore in 2005. Thus, promoters have

rs of rich and successful experience in park operations. Amusement parks operate for 365 days from 11am-7pm an

based beverages are not allowed inside.

ong competitive advantage- High entry barrier

elopment of large amusement parks typically require huge investment involving land acquisition, establis

astructure and rides, and regular investment in creation of new rides. Due to its highly capital intensive nature,

the required footfall becomes highly critical, especially in newly developed parks, in order to break-even. ~250 Cr

quired to established an amusement park .Companies existing parks of Wonderla at Bangalore and Kochi are gen

icient revenue and have witnessed steady growth in footfalls over the years.

uation : WONDERLA is trading at 387. We recommend “ Accumulate” with target price of 498 ,

k 30xFY18E EPS of 16.62.The stock currently trades at 32.47x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY

mpany Update : Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

291April,2016


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3-

eekly Market Recap :

The trade data showed on 20 April 2016 that India's merchandise exports continue to see decline on year on yearMerchandise exports declined 5.47% to $22.71 billion in March 2016 over March 2015.

On global front, the European Central Bank (ECB) on 21 April 2016, left monetary policy unchanged as expected.

HDFC Bank’s net profit rose 20.21% to Rs 3374.22 crore on 21.14% rise in total income to Rs 18862.61 croreMarch 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced on 22 April 2016.

TCS reported a 50 basis points decline in its operating profit margin at 27.7% in Q4 March 2016 from 28.2%December 2015. On consolidated basis, the company's net profit rose 5% to Rs 6413.12 crore on 4% growth in sale

8448.61 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q3 December 2015.

arket Eye Week ahead :

On political front, the second part of the budget session of Parliament will commence on Monday, 25 April 2016month long recess and will conclude on 13 May 2016, during which government hopes to receive support of oppparties in passage of key legislations including the Goods & Services Tax (GST) Bill.The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from tmonth April 2016 series to May 2016 series.On global front, US Federal Reserve will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, 26 April 2016 and Wed

7 April 2016.

Events / Factors to Watch

Mon: ABB India, Delta Corp, Tata Sponge, Ultratech Cement earnings

Tue: Axis Bank, Biocon, IDFC bank, Maruti Suzuki, GNFC, Rallis India, Snowman logistics earnings

Wed: Alembic Pharma, CEAT, Bharti Ai rtel, Gati, Inox Leisure, Yes bank, Sadbhav Engineering, GDL, Exide inarnings

Tue-Wed : FOMC two day pol icy meeting

Thur: ACC, Ambuja cements, Dabur India, HCC, Idea Cellular, Tata Elexi, Kajaria Ceramics earnings

Fri: Ajanta Pharma, Atul , Everest Industries, ICICI Bank, IDFC, GIC Housing Finance earnings

Sat: Federal Bank, Gujarat Ambuja exports earnings

Arbi trage Pricing Theory (APT)

Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a well-known method of estimating the price of an asset. The theory assumes an asset's ependent on various macroeconomic, market and security-specific factors.

The APT was a revolutionary model as it helps the user decide whether a security is undervalued or overvalued and so an ian profit from the information. APT is also very useful for building portfolios because it allows managers to test whether the

os are exposed to certain factors.

round The World

291April,2016

owledge Corner :


4/10

utual Fund Corner

4-

Source : - www.valueresearchonlin

nd Name

heme Name Kotak Select Focus Fund Regular Plan

C Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd

pe Multi Cap

egory Open-ended and Equity

nch Date September 2009

nd Manager Harsha Upadhyaya

Assetsn crore )

Rs. 4219.5 crore as on Mar 31, 2016

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Sector Weights Fund

Financial 23

Construction 12

Automobile 11

Energy 10

Technology 8.

FMCG 6.

Healthcare 4.Services 3.

Engineering 3.

Diversified 2.

Composition (%)

Equity 92

Debt 6

Cash 0.

Risk Analysis

Volatility Measures

Standard Deviation 16

Sharpe Ratio 0

Beta 1

R-Squared 0 Alpha 9

tory 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Rs) 14.06 22.19 22.85 22.76

l Return (%) 6.13 57.87 2.96 -0.37

Nifty 50 -0.63 26.48 7.02 0.22

Nifty 200 1.69 22.34 4.86 0.85

k (Fund/Category) 34/73 15/145 81/187 51/191

eek High (Rs) 14.08 22.57 24.45 -

Week Low (Rs) 11.67 13.41 21.53 -

Assets (Rs.Cr) 314.02 1290.64 3745.12 3870.57

ense Ratio (%) 2.73 2.49 2.21 -

Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value

Large

Medi

Sma

291April,2016

nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

FundCNX Nify

based to 10,000)


5/10

mmodity Corner

5-

DAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week settled with gains where bullion prices ended with little gains as traders were waited for further cluesest rates from the Federal Reserve while Silver prices reached the 11 month top helped by optimism over Chinese growth, and a break abt resistance. Metal traders continued to digest relatively dovish comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi regarding t of future easing measures from the central bank. It came after the ECB's Governing Council left its benchmark interest rate for the euro zrd-low of zero and its deposit rate unchanged at Minus0.4%. More critically, Draghi noted that the ECB could continue to hold interest ratestive low levels beyond the expiration of a comprehensive €80 billion a month Quantitative Easing program in March, 2017. The decision care the start of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting on April 26-27. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve is wied to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50%. Elsewhere, factory conditions in the U.S. reme PMI Manufacturing Index flash reading for April fell 0.6 to 50.8, sharply below expectations of 52.0. The dollar remained higher againstpeculation the Bank of Japan was considering applying negative rates to its lending program for financial institutions, effectively startins to borrow its cash. The US dollar booked further gains, especially against the yen, after rumors emerged on Friday that the Bank of Jap

d add a negative loan rate to its arsenal next week. Nevertheless, April's flash reading represents its lowest level since the start of the rec

al financial markets. Gold demand in India improved this week as jewellery retailers reopened stores after a strike, but the world's secondon market remained at a discount to the global benchmark as purchases across the region were curbed by higher prices. They started s from last week. India's gold imports in March slumped 80.5 percent from a year ago to $973 million, the government said.

OMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 28800 SL 28400 TGT 29500. Silver BUY SILVER @ 39500 SL 38700 TGT 40800-41500

DAMENTAL : Base metals prices last week showed good gains where aluminium headed for the biggest weekly advance in three years ver 5% and 4% gains in copper and lead prices respectively while others too gains on signs of improving demand in China, even as Ghs Group Inc. predicted lower prices. Prices also remains supported on speculation that raw-materials demand in China will turn around aftoncern over worsening economic growth. Data showed a pickup in activity ranging from industrial production to fixed-asset investment inng evidence that monetary and fiscal easing are having an impact in the Asian nation, the largest metals consumer. The People’s Bank oted the most funds into the financial system via open-market operations in almost two months. Rising metal prices are due to a higher riskng market players which can also be seen in rising stock markets and higher oil prices. Prices remains supported as Chinese authorities tth and added stimulus, presiding over a revival in the property market. China’s copper concentrate imports surged 34% year-on-year to es in the first quarter of 2016, according to China Customs data. The global copper market has recorded a surplus of 120,000 tonnes durio February this year, as mentioned in the latest metals balances report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). Accordintly published metals balances report by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the worldwide zinc market has recorded a marginag January to February this year. This is after recording a surplus during the whole year 2015. As per WBMS data, the global zinc market rl surplus of 110 kt during the initial two months of the year from January to February. It should be noted that the worldwide zinc market

ed a surplus of 121 kt during the entire year 2015. Global refined zinc production witnessed decline of 2.8% during the initial two-month p6. In news, creditors of an Australian nickel company owned by embattled politician Clive Palmer voted on Friday to wind up the compe millions of dollars owned to creditors and workers. Nickel inventories have been drawing. China looks the strongest in months anless steel production has stabilized.OMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 328 SL 320 TGT 338-345. BUY ZINC @ 125 SL 122 TGT 129-134. BUY NICKEL @ 600 SL 575 TBUY ALIMINIUM @ 107 SL 104 TGT 112-116. BUY LEAD @ 116 SL 112 TGT 120-124

DAMENTAL : Last week crude oil prices ended with around 8.82 percent gains as prices notched their third straight week of gains as mark

t turned more upbeat amid signs a persistent global supply glut may be easing. Strong gasoline consumption in the United States, increaseclining production around the world and oilfield outages have underpinned a return to investment in the sector. Traders also pointed te imports to China in March as supporting prices. Still, some warned that the oil market was still far from balancing supply and demandut, especially in the United States, where many producers have reeled from an up to 70 percent oil price rout since mid- 2014, has helped ket. U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a fifth week in a row to the lowest level since November 2009, oil services company Baker Hughes s

the recent rally, oil markets remain oversupplied as between 1 million and 2 million barrels of crude are being pumped out of the ground ecess of demand, leaving storage tanks around the world filled to the brim with unsold fuel. Russia and Saudi Arabia have since said theider producing more oil if they see sufficient demand. Natural gas had their best week of the year gaining by 11.67 percent on signs that semperatures in the East will help trim a supply glut. Above-normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states will rise in the South atay, stoking demand for the power-plant fuel to run air conditioners. Preliminary pipeline data shows that stockpiles may increase by about 5c feet this week, “way lower” than the year-earlier gain of 84 billion. A gas surplus to the five-year average has narrowed for two straight wer-year high on an unexpectedly chilly start to April. Futures extended gains after the government’s midday Global Forecast System showeher late next week in the Midwest to the East followed by an unusually warm start to May in the South, adding both heating and cooling drding to Commodity Weather Group LLC. Gas inventories totaled 2.484 trillion cubic feet on April 15, 48.5 percent above the five-year rding to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

OMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2800 SL 2680 TGT 2950-3080. BUY NATURAL GAS @ 138 SL 130 TGT 145-152

BULLION

BASE METALS

ENERGY

291April,2016


6/10

4 -

mmodity Corner

USD/INR

6-

rex Corner

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

rket Eye Week ahead :

USDINR ended below the primary trend line for the second consecutive week. Prices tested the flat suppopegged at 66.15 and ended with a hammer like candle. Sustainable rise above the resistance line wpegged at 66.90 can trigger some pullback in the counter. However, big upside seems to be unlikely from evels as weekly MACD and price structure both are indicating for further downside and pullbackhould be used to initiate short positions on rise at 66.80 with SL 67.15 and target 65.20.

Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl

SD/INR 65.86 66.2 66.49 66.83 67.12 66.79 66.16 66


PY/INR 58.96 59.55 60.7 61.29 62.44 61.85 60.11 60


BP/INR 93.84 94.79 95.31 96.26 96.78 95.83 94.36 95


UR/INR 74.38 74.71 75.12 75.45 75.86 75.54 74.8 75

rket Recap :

The Indian rupee plunged lower in early trades onMonday, 25 April 2016 on sustained demand for theUS currency from importers.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 66.68 againsthe dollar and registered an intraday high and low of

66.65 and 66.73 respectively so far during the day.

n the spot market, the Indian unit was last seenrading at 66.65.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measureshe greenback's strength against a trade-weighted

basket of six major currencies, fell 0.22% to 94.90.

291April,2016


7/10

Nifty last week opened at 7908.15, attained a low at 7842.45 and moved up to 7978.45. Nifty finally closed the w899.30 thereby showed a net rise of 48.85 on week to week basis. If a minor correction or retracement of the ris516 to 7978 is witnessed then traders look for retracement levels of the rise for accumulation. Retracement levlaced 7800-7747-7695. Accumulate at retracement levels with a stop loss of 7500, In the event of a breakout anbove 7979 expect the rally to be witnessed towards the next supply zone of 8217-8336 and In the event of a lose below 7500, the slide can be seen towards 7231 and 6768.

7-

treet Recommendations Report Card

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP Target AbsoluteReturn @

CMPSta

na Auto 22/02/2016 133 140 181 5% B

Educare 1/2/2016 164 173 230 5% B

ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 366 550 -14% B

spun syntax 23/11/2015 121 106 223 -12% B

co Pharma 2/11/2015 509 478 636 -6% B

F 21/09/2015 1140 1357 1374 19% B

uwalia contracts 24/08/2015 235 292 368 24% B

nite Computer Sol. 20/07/2015 190 216 255 14% B

bika Cotton Mil ls 18/05/2015 880 867 1149 -1% B

bhav Engineering 4/5/2015 298 283 430 -5% B

kar speciality 16/03/2015 152 184 251 21% B

FL 16/02/2015 252 200 368 -21% Accum

Today Network 27/01/2015 222 316 337 42% B

M 12/1/2015 1238 1327 1452 7% B

ells India 27/10/2014 274 342 346 25% B

C India Fin. Ser. 7/7/2014 39 39 45 1% B

ni Port 5/7/2014 280 232 347 -17% Accum

d-Tek Packaging 04/04/2016 138 150 179 8% B

nderla Holidays 25/04/2016 387 387 498 0% Accum

s not important whether you are right or wrong, It’s about how much money you make when you're right and h

ch you

lose

when

you're

wrong.”

291April,2016


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7-

treet Short Term Call Status

291April,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE RANGE TRIGGER PRICE

TGT SL STATUS RE

2‐Mar‐16 TATAELAXSI BUY 1785 1825 1805.00 1870.00 1750 TA

3‐Mar‐16 MARUTI SELL 3650 3580 3615.00 3500.00 3690 TA

4‐Mar‐16 TATASTEEL SELL 283 290 286.50 276.00 300 SL

8‐Mar‐16 SRTTRANSFIN BUY 905 923 914.00 945.00 885 TA

9‐Mar

‐16

BANKBARODA

SELL

140

144

142.00

137.00

148

TA

10‐Mar‐16 RELCAPITAL BUY 374 382 378.00 390.00 360 SL

11‐Mar‐16 AXISBANK SELL 411 418 414.50 404.00 430 SL

14‐Mar‐16 HINDUNILVR BUY 845 858 851.50 875.00 825 TA

15‐Mar‐16 TATAMOTOR BUY 362 368 365.00 376.00 348 TA

16‐Mar‐16 HDFC SELL 1106 1128 1117.00 1080.00 1150 SL

17‐Mar‐16 ICICIBANK BUY 223 233 228.00 240.00 210 TA

18‐Mar‐16 INDUSINDBK SELL 900 920 910.00 880.00 942 SL

21‐Mar‐16 VOLTAS BUY 265 270 267.50 276.00 256 TA

22‐Mar‐16 INDIACEM BUY 83 86 84.50 88.00 80 TA

23‐Mar‐16 BHEL BUY 115 118 116.50 120.00 112 SL

28‐Mar‐16 TATASTEEL BUY 314 320 317.00 328.00 304 TA

29‐Mar

‐16

AXISBANK

SELL

421

428

424.50

411.00

440

SL

30‐Mar‐16 CIPLA SELL 500 510 505.00 490.00 520 SL

31‐Mar‐16 BAJAJFINANCE BUY 6750 6860 6805.00 7120.00 6600 TA

4‐Apr‐16 HEROMO‐ BUY 2930 2990 2960.00 3140.00 2850 TA

5‐Apr‐16 ORIENTAL‐ SELL 94 97 95.50 90.00 100 TA

6‐Apr‐16 SBIN SELL 182 186 184.00 174.00 191 SL

7‐Apr

‐16

UNIONBANK

SELL

126

129

127.50

120.00

133

SL


9/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

291April,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE TRIGGER PRICE

TGT SL STATUS CMP RE

8‐Apr‐16 LT SELL 1176 1198 1187.00 1132.00 1230 SL

11‐Apr‐16 TCS SELL 2415 2463 2439.00 2375.00 2520 SL

12‐Apr‐16 MOTHERSUMI BUY 250 255 252.50 260.00 244 TA

13‐Apr‐16 ASHOKLEY BUY 110 113 111.50 115.00 107 SL

18‐Apr

‐16

DHFL

BUY

200

205

202.50

210.00

194

OPEN

20‐Apr‐16 SRTTRANSFIN BUY 990 1010 1035.00 1055.00 960 OPEN

21‐Apr‐16 HINDUNILVR BUY 894 914 904.00 935.00 860 OPEN

22‐Apr‐16 ICICIBANK BUY 251 255 253.00 261.00 243 OPEN

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB 18 58.06

SL+EXIT 13 41.94

TOTAL 31 100

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.

This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)


10/10

291April,2016

Documents

J Street Volume 291