ISMOR 22ISMOR 22

Paul StoddartPaul Stoddart

Operational AnalysisOperational Analysis

Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare Centre

Dstl

I ..

.

..

AI

R F

ER

ERA

A RI FLRMIUDICARE CONSI

LIUAR ..

.

..

Measuring Progress in Measuring Progress in Air OperationsAir Operations

Measuring the E in EBOMeasuring the E in EBO

Famous Person QuoteFamous Person Quote

““We only fully understand We only fully understand something when we can something when we can

measure it”measure it”

Lord Kelvin

Measuring the E in EBOMeasuring the E in EBO

Measure of EffectivenessMeasure of Effectiveness

answers the Commander’s questionanswers the Commander’s question

““How well are we doing?”How well are we doing?”

Why bother with MoEs?Why bother with MoEs?

After all, we win and we win quicklyAfter all, we win and we win quickly Gulf 91Gulf 91 40 days40 days BosniaBosnia 12 days12 days KosovoKosovo 78 days78 days Gulf 03Gulf 03 28 days28 days

Measuring the E in EBOMeasuring the E in EBO

The Operational CycleThe Operational Cycle

OOBSERVEBSERVE

OORIENTRIENT

DDECIDEECIDE

AACTCT

The Operational CycleThe Operational Cycle

OOBSERVEBSERVE

OOVER-REACTVER-REACT

DDENYENY

AAPOLOGISEPOLOGISE

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

DECIDE

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS PREP

DECIDE

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

Practical

Cognitive

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

Practical

Cognitive

The operational loopThe operational loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

Practical

Cognitive

Slow

Fast

Inside our own OODA loopInside our own OODA loop

ASSESS

EXECUTE

PREP

DECIDE

Practical

Cognitive

Slow

Fast

Inside our own OODA loopInside our own OODA loop

Misplaced focusMisplaced focus

““Airmen have become driven by Airmen have become driven by process not strategy”process not strategy”

Strategic Objective

Strategy to Task

Strategic Objective

Operational Objective 1

Strategy to Task

Tactical Objective 1.1

Strategic Objective

Operational Objective 1

Strategy to Task

Tactical Objective 1.1

Tactical Task 1.1.1

Strategic Objective

Operational Objective 1

Strategy to Task

Tactical Objective 1.1

Tactical Task 1.1.1

Action 1.1.1.1

Strategic Objective

Operational Objective 1

Strategy to Task

Tactical Objective 1.1

Tactical Task 1.1.1

Action 1.1.1.1

Strategic Objective

Operational Objective 1

Strategy to Task

Measure of Effect 1

Measure of Effect

Measure of Effect

Measure of Effect

Measure of Effect 2

Measure of Effect

Air Campaign - breakdownAir Campaign - breakdown

Operational ObjectivesOperational Objectives xxTactical ObjectivesTactical Objectives yyTactical TasksTactical Tasks zzTargets/actionsTargets/actions several per several per

TTTT

Total analysis taskTotal analysis task HugeHuge

Scoring methodScoring method

Score for any level = Score for any level =

sum of scoressum of scores

for the next level downfor the next level down

Element 7

Element 6

Element 3

Element 4

Element 5

Element 1

Element 8

Element 2

System level modelling

Element 7

Element 6

Element 3

Element 4

Element 5

Element 1

Element 8

Weight

Weight

Weight

Weight

Weight

Weight

Element 2

System level modelling

Element 7

Element 6

Element 3

Element 4

Element 5

Element 1

Element 8

IADS Effectiveness

Weight

Weight

Summing

Weight

Weight

Weight

Weight

SummingSumming

Element 2

System level modelling

Measuring the E in EBOMeasuring the E in EBO

Know your enemyKnow your enemy

Study Study

ORBAT ORBAT andand

ORSYSORSYS

Outcome SpectrumOutcome Spectrum

Effectrequired

Red Air unable to inhibit Blue

TargetSystem 1

Red Integrated Air Defence System

Outcome SpectrumMostLikely

BestCase

WorstCase

DurationImplication

Option 1 aaa bbb ccc dddOption 2 xxx yyy zzz uuu

TargetSystem 2

Potential solutionsPotential solutions

Historical Analysis of operations and Historical Analysis of operations and campaigns from an EB perspectivecampaigns from an EB perspective

Build database of Historical Analysis Build database of Historical Analysis findingsfindings

HA DatabaseHA Database

What effects were sought?What effects were sought?What actions were taken?What actions were taken?What MoEs were used?What MoEs were used?What effects actually resulted?What effects actually resulted?What effects should have been sought?What effects should have been sought?What actions should have been taken?What actions should have been taken?What MoEs should have been used?What MoEs should have been used?

Education, education, educationEducation, education, education

Educate airmen in EB-perspective Air Educate airmen in EB-perspective Air Power historyPower history

Educate airmen to have same Educate airmen to have same understanding of air power actions, understanding of air power actions, effects and MoEs as they do of effects and MoEs as they do of platforms and systemsplatforms and systems

““Culinary” EBCulinary” EB

We have the books on nutrition: i.e. the We have the books on nutrition: i.e. the doctrinedoctrine

We have the place setting: i.e. the We have the place setting: i.e. the presentation of resultspresentation of results

We do not have the cook book: i.e. the We do not have the cook book: i.e. the recipes, the ‘how to do it’recipes, the ‘how to do it’

Balance of KnowledgeBalance of Knowledge

ActionAction EffectEffect

ORBATORBAT ORSYSORSYS

DoctrineDoctrine EB examplesEB examples

WeaponsWeapons EB MoEsEB MoEs

AI

R F

ER

ERA

A RI FLRMIUDICARE CONSI

LIUAR ..

.

..

Scoring methodScoring method

Element result x weighting Element result x weighting

= score= score

Aggregation of sub-level scores Aggregation of sub-level scores

== result for ‘parent’ element result for ‘parent’ element

at next higher levelat next higher level