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24/06/2014
1
ICE South West
20 June 2014
John Young
ISIS 1D Hydraulic Model
Hanham Avon
Hydraulic ModellingISIS model of the Floating Harbour Rivers Frome & Avon
Frenchay, FromeAvonmouth Northern Stormwater
Interceptor
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Location
Avon CrescentNova Dam
Junction Lock & Underfall Yard
Barthurst Dam
Mylne’s Culvert
Frome Culverts
Foss
Castle Park
Castle Ditch
Totterdown Dam& Victor Street
Forgotten Lock
NethamWeir, Sluices & Sheet Piles
1D / 2D ISIS – TUFLOW Modelling
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Tidal Inundation (2012)
Existing Defence Configuration
Return Periods1 in 200 : Tidal / Surge
1 in 10 : Avon1 in 10 : Frome
Tidal Inundation (2035)
Existing Defence Configuration
Return Periods1 in 200 : Tidal / Surge
1 in 10 : Avon1 in 10 : Frome
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Tidal Inundation (2060)
Existing Defence Configuration
Return Periods1 in 200 : Tidal / Surge
1 in 10 : Avon1 in 10 : Frome
Tidal Inundation (2115)
Existing Defence Configuration
Return Periods1 in 200 : Tidal / Surge
1 in 10 : Avon1 in 10 : Frome
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Number of Flooded Properties (2012)
T= varies, A =10, F=10
Number of Flooded Properties (2012 ‐ 2112)
T= 200, A =10, F=10
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Condition Prognosis, Operation & Flooding
Avon Crescent, Underfall Yard / Nova Dam & Junction Lock
Junction Lock
Flood Gate
Underfall Yard Sluices Culverts
& Outfall
Avon Crescent
Nova Dam
Avon CrescentNova Dam
Junction Lock & Underfall Yard
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Junction Lock8.20m AOD 8.751m AOD
Dockside Level
210020602011
Flood Gate
1.1m 1.6m
Avon Crescent
T= 50, A =10, F=10
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Cumberland Road8.30m AOD
Cumberland Road
210020602011
9.15m AOD
Electricity Sub-Station
6.80m AOD
1.0m 1.5m
Bathurst Dam & Lock
Dam Constructed in 1953
Barthurst Dam
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Bathurst Basin
T= 50, A =10, F=10
Totterdown Lock and Dam
1750 1828
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St Phillips
T= 50, A =10, F=10
Fluvial Flows
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Climate Change AdaptationYear(s) Climate Change Adaptation Example of adaptation
2012 Prepare Flooding Project Appraisal Study for Floating Harbour
2012 Develop & implement Flood Management Plan (via Project Appraisal Study)
Lowering water levels in the harbour based on reaction to flood forecasting
2012 Preparation of Flood Resilience Plan & Strategy (via Project Appraisal Study)
Evaluate flood resilience of MEICA systems at Underfall Yard & Cumberland basin
2013‐2015 Implement Flood Resilience Strategy Improve security of power supply to Underfall Yard Sluices
2015 Construct flood defences Cumberland Road & Avon Crescent
2015 Install additional pumping capacity to address surface water flooding
2012‐ 2025 Planning for the implementation of a barrage scheme
2025‐2035 Construct storm surge barrier on the Avon
1 Dimensional ISIS Modelling
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ISIS 1D Hydraulic Model
Frenchay, FromeAvonmouth Northern Stormwater
Interceptor
AV4
Blackrock
Avon Barrier ‐ Section Locations
AV4
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Avonmouth – Tides & Surge
Avonmouth Htbdy.xlxs
Surge Profile
1 in 200 Factored Surge Profile
Tidal Profile
1 in 200 year HT bdy = Factored Surge Profile + Tidal Profile9.11m AOD
Avonmouth – Tides & Surge
Close Barrierto tidal Inundation (close to low tide to maximise storage volume in Avon)
Open Barrier to allow fluvial water temporally stored in Avon upstream of barrier to drain
Close Barrierto tidal Inundation (close to low tide to maximise storage volume in Avon)
Open Barrier to allow fluvial water temporally stored in Avon upstream of barrier to drain
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The EVY calibre program used the genetic algorithm to gradually improve the ISIS models towards a set of predefined criteria (peak water levels) by varying the timing and of gate operations over a range of tidal cycles.
Barrier Operation
Calibre ‐ Shapes
Decide Input Shapes to Genetic
AlgorithmWater Level in River Avon
Assign a level of importance to each shape by applying a weighting
Water Level in Floating Harbour
Water Level in River Frome
combined into a single “model quality”
number
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Calibre Events
Avon & Chew Frome Tide Climate Change
1:2 (2yr) 1:10 (10yr)1:200 (200yr)
25 years time
1:2 (2yr) 1:10 (10yr)
1:10 (10yr) 1:5 (5yr)1:20 (20yr)
1:20 (20yr) 1:50 (50yr)
1:100 (100yr) 1:100 (100yr) 1:2 (2yr)
1:2 (2yr) 1:2 (2yr)1:200 (200yr)
100 years time
1:10 (10yr) 1:10 (10yr)
1:10 (10yr) 1:5 (5yr)1:20 (20yr)
1:20 (20yr) 1:50 (50yr)
1:100 (100yr) 1:100 (100yr) 1:2 (2yr)
Calibre – The fun starts
The ISIS model is run for a range of events/ Return Periods
Preliminary operating regime is defined for the Barrier
i.e. timing of barrier
operation opening &
closing
Calibre randomly adjusts, by a small amount, the operating
regime of the barrier to create 8 “child” models.
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Calibre – The fun carries on
The ISIS model is run for a range of events on the Avon, Frome, Chew
and Tidal/Surge
Model Quality Numbers Extracted and 4 Parent Models Selected
The “next generation” operational rules are then jiggled twice by applying a
random mutation to create 8 child models within this generation
Calibre The results for each gauge/event are compared to the specified levels and flows. These are weighted and the results combined into a single “model quality” number.
The best four models are selected and these are averaged and combined in pairs to create four new “next generation” operational rules.
The “next generation” operational rules are then jiggled twice by applying a random mutation to create 8 child models within this generation.
The model iterates until it is aborted by the user.
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Impact of Barrier Optimisation
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