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A 2009 research paper by Andrew Scobell, on the apparent gap between China's civilian and military leadership.
Citation preview
4 Parameters
Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?
ANDREW SCOBELL
© 2009 Andrew Scobell
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Summer 2009 5
Mixed Messages
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A Gap in Attitudes and Perspectives?
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-China’s Use of Military Force
China’s Search for Security
Summer 2009 7
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Is there a worrisome laxity in civilian control of China’s military? Are there serious
gaps in China’s civil-military relations?
8 Parameters
Four Explanations
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What one hears and sees is a carefully scripted and well-acted drama
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The differences between soldiers and statesmen are real and unscripted
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The
Soldiers are talking and acting as rogues
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Summer 2009 9
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Soldiers are talking and acting as saboteurs
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A Chinese Calculus of Deterrence
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Summer 2009 11
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There also appears to be a gap in China’s civilian control of the military.
Summer 2009 13
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But even if gaps exist between soldiers and civilians in China, does it matter?
Summer 2009 19
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The evidence suggests that the hawkish words of PLA generals are part of a deliberate
and calculated Chinese deterrence effort directed at the United States.
Summer 2009 21
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