Is Scotland Set to Separate?

John Curticewhatscotlandthinks.org

@whatscotsthink

Turnout Prospects

Feb May Sept Dec Feb0

102030405060708090

73 74 7379 78

65 64 6369 68

54 5752

56 54

Referendum Holyrood Westminster

% ce

rtai

n to

vot

e

Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

A Little Movement in the Polls?

Feb-May July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Mar0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

38 39 3942

62 61 6158

YesNo

Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

The Post Christmas Sequence% Yes Change since Pre-WP

TNS BMRB 41 +5

ICM 46 +6

YouGov 39 +1

Survation 38 -

TNS BMRB 41 +5

Panelbase 43 -2

YouGov 39 +1

Survation 45 -

ICM 43 +3

Panelbase 44 -1

Ipsos MORI 36 +2

YouGov 40 +2

Survation 45 -

The Don’t Knows

TNS Others YouGov - AV ICM - AV0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3530

15

33

27

%

Squeezing the Don’t Knows

Ipsos MORI ICM I ICM 20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

39

2420

29

2125

YesNo

Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI

Feb. May Sept Dec Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

26

34

24

31

1821

28

23 23

YesNo

Source: Ipsos MORI

Possible Changers - ICM

Sept Jan Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

29

2321

16

22

17 YesNo

Source: ICM Research

The Cross-Party Transfer

Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2

0

45

15

11

15

18

1413

109

11

14

12

10ConLabLDSNP

% sa

ying

will

vot

e ag

ains

t par

ty's

re

com

men

datio

n

The Gender Gap

ICM Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4853

4144

52

3934

31 29

38

MenWomen

Partly a Question of Identity

Sc not Br More Sc Equal More Br Br not Sc0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9077

45

136 3

69

43

10 11 14

68

40

16 14 12

82

56

84 7

80

56

134 3

Feb. 13 May Sept Dec Feb

% su

ppor

t ind

epen

denc

e

Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

Scotland’s Future - Economy?

Sept Jan Feb0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3135 35

6 7 7

4842

46

Better No Difference Worse

Source: ICM Research

Scotland Future’s - Equality

Sept Jan Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2731

333431 32

20 2119

Less No Difference More

Source: ICM Research

Economy Matters (Much) More

Better No Difference Worse0

20

40

60

80

100

120

97

45

4

63

3627

% Yes

EconomyEquality

Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

The Gender Gap on the Economy

Sept Jan Feb

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-14

-5-4

-19

-10

-17

MenWomen

% g

ood

- % b

ad

Source: ICM Research

Conclusion

• Be ready for a high turnout!• The referendum race has narrowed a bit• But Yes side still face a substantial challenge

– Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over

– Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones

– Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union

– Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women