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8/9/2019 Is Greece European?
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ece European? | Stratfor
www.stratfor.com/weekly/greece-european[21/9/2013 8:06:18 ]
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s Greece European?
lobal Affairs WEDNESDAY, JUNE 6, 2012 - 04:00 Print Text Size
By Robert D. Kaplan
Chief Geopolitical Analyst
Greece is where the West both begins and
ends. The West -- as a humanist ideal --
began in ancient Athens where
compassion for the individual began to
replace the crushing brutality of the nearbycivilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia.
The war that Herodotus chronicles
between Greece and Persia in the 5th
century B.C. established a contrast
between West and East that has persisted
for millennia. Greece is Christian, but it is
so Eastern Orthodox, as spiritually close to Russia as it is to the West, and geographically equidistant between
russels and Moscow. Greece may have invented the West with the democratic innovations of the Age of Pericles, but
r more than a thousand years it was a child of Byzantine and Turkish despotism. And while Greece was the
orthwestern bastion of the anciently civilized Near East, ever since history moved north into colder climates following
e collapse of Rome, the inhabitants of Peninsular Greece have found themselves at the poor, southeastern extremity
Europe.
odern Greece in particular has struggled against this bifurcated legacy. In an early 20th century replay of the Greco-
ersian Wars, Greece's post-World War I military struggle with Turkey led to a signal Greek defeat and as a
onsequence, more than a million ethnic Greeks from Asia Minor escaped to Greece proper, further impoverishing the
ountry. (This Greek diaspora in Asia Minor was a massive source of revenue until the Greeks were expelled.) Not only
d World War I have a bloody and epic coda in Greece, so did World War II, which was followed by a civil war between
ghtists and communists. Greece's ultimate escape from the Warsaw Pact was a rather close-run affair: again, the
fect of Greece's unstable geographical location between East and West.
reece struggled on. As recently as the mid-1970s it was governed by a particularly brutal military dictatorship (led by
olonels from the backwater of the Peloponnese), which lasted for seven years, and fear of another coup persisted
uring the initial stage of its reborn democracy. Even though the Olympic tradition began in Greece in antiquity and the
st modern Olympics were held in Greece in 1896, Greece was denied the right to host the centenary modern
ympics in 1996 owing to the country's lack of preparedness in organization and infrastructure. Greece did host the
004 Olympics, but the financial strain that the games put on Greece contributed to the country's economic fragility in
e run-up to the current debt crisis.
s not entirely an accident that Greece is the most economically troubled country in the European Union. The fact that
s located at Europe's southeastern back door also has something to do with it. For Greece's economic and politicalevelopment bear marks of a legacy not wholly in the modern West.
oughly three-quarters of Greek businesses are family-owned and rely on family labor, making meritocratic promotion
fficult for those outside the family. Tax cheating is rampant. The economy suffers from a profound lack of
ompetitiveness, even as Greece is mainly a service economy, relying on tourism, in which manufacturing constitutes a
eak sector. Of course, these features have much to do with bad policies enacted over the years and decades, but
ey are also products of history and culture, which are, in turn, products of geography. Indeed, Greece lacks enough
oductive land to be an agricultural power.
hen there is political underdevelopment. Long into the 20th century, Greek political parties had a paternalistic,
offeehouse quality, centered on big personalities -- chieftains in all but name -- with little formal organizational support.
eorge Papandreou, the grandfather of the recent prime minister of the same name, actually headed a party called the
George Papandreou Party." Political parties have been family businesses to a greater extent in Greece than in other
Stratfor
View Full Tim
Europe's Economic CrisiTimeline
NEWER
JUN 12, 2012
Spain, Debt and Sovereignty
JUN 7, 2012
Europe's Banking Union Solutio
(Portfolio)
JUN 6, 2012
Is Greece European?
JUN 1, 2012
Irish Voters Approve the EU Fisc
Compact
MAY 31, 2012
The Shifting Berlin-Paris-Moscow
Al liance
MAY 31, 2012
Portugal: Local Governments an
Obstacle to Budget Deficit Goals
MAY 25, 2012
Growth Measures Divide EU
MAY 24, 2012
A Cyc le of European Cr is is
Management
MAY 21, 2012
Spain's Budget Fight Threatens
Deficit Targets
MAY 17, 2012
Germany's Eurozone Dilemma
(Portfolio)
MAY 15, 2012
Europe's Demographic Decline
MAY 15, 2012
Greece Pushes Eurozone Cris is
Further
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Is Greece European?
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ece European? | Stratfor
www.stratfor.com/weekly/greece-european[21/9/2013 8:06:18 ]
estern democracies. The party in power not only dominated the highest echelons of the bureaucracy, as is normal
nd proper in a democracy, but the middle- and lower-echelons, too. State institutions from top to bottom were often
verly politicized.
oreover, rather than having a moderate left-wing party and a modern conservative one, as is common throughout
estern Europe, in Greece through the early 1990s there was a hard-left party, the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement
ASOK), which during the Cold War openly sympathized with radical Arab regimes like Hafez al Assad's Syria and
oammar Gadhafi's Libya, and a somewhat reactionary right-wing party, New Democracy. The drift of both those
ading parties toward the center is a relatively recent affair.
nd so the creation of late of a hard -left party, SYRIZA, and a hard-right neo-Nazi movement, Golden Dawn (vaguely
miniscent of the military junta that ruled Greece from 1967 to 1974), both harbor distant echoes of Greece's mid-20th
entury past. Ironically, while Greece's extreme economic crisis created these radical groupings in the first place, ifese new parties fare badly in the upcoming poll it might indicate a firm rejection of extremism by Greek voters and a
ermanent turn toward the center -- toward political modernity, that is.
here is a tendency in all of this to throw one's hands up at the specter of the Greeks and declare them too much
ouble than they're worth, at least for Europe. But such an attitude reeks of hypocrisy, even as it denies Western self-
terest. When Greece joined the European Union in 1981, its economy was manifestly not ready; Brussels had made a
nk political decision, not an economic one -- just as it would in admitting Greece to the eurozone in 2002. In both
ases, the ground-level, domestic reality of the Greek economy was swept aside in favor of an abstract quasi-historical
sion of Europe stretching from Iberia to the eastern Mediterranean.
f course, Greece, during the 1980s -- when I lived there for seven years -- might have used the influx of cash from the
uropean Union in order to discipline and reform its economy. Instead, then PASOK Prime Minister Andreas
apandreou used the money to swell the ranks of the bureaucracy. Thus, did Greece remain underdeveloped, and the
eam-gamble of Brussels failed. The saddest irony is that the sins of the hard-left Andreas Papandreou were visited
pon his well-meaning, center-left son, George, who had his short tenure as prime minister from 2009 to 2011oisoned by his father's economic legacy.
ut Western self-interest now demands that even if Greece leaves the eurozone -- and that is a big "if" -- it
evertheless remains anchored in the European Union and NATO. For whether Greece drops the euro or not, it faces
ears of severe economic hardship. That means, given its geographic location, Greece's political orientation should
ever be taken for granted. For example, the Chinese have invested heavily in developing part of the port of Piraeus,
djacent to Athens, even as Russia's economic and intelligence ties to the Greek area of Cyprus are extremely close. It
as been speculated in the media that with Greece short of cash and Russia enjoying a surplus, were the Russians
ected from ports in Syria in the wake of a regime change there, Moscow would find a way to eventually make use of
reek naval facilities. Remember that Greece and Cyprus both have modern European histories mainly because they
ere claimed by Western powers for strategic reasons.
other words, from the point of geography and geopolitics, Greece will be in play for years to come.
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U.S. Credibility in th
Wake of a Deal on
Syria
The PC16: Identify in
China's Successors
Understanding Wha
Went Wrong in
Benghazi
Greece Pushes
Eurozone CrisisFurther
The Eurozone Crisis
the Coming Months
The Social Effects o
the European Crisis
ARTICLE AUTHOR
Robert D. Kaplan
Robert D. Kaplan is the author
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean a
the Future of American Power
which was published by Rando
House in October 2010, and
released in paperback in September 2011.
newest book, The Revenge of Geography:
What the Map Tells Us about Coming Confl
and the Battle Against Fate, was published
Random House in 2012.
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ece European? | Stratfor
www.stratfor.com/weekly/greece-european[21/9/2013 8:06:18 ]
REPORTS
Austria: Chancellor Calls For Europea
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SEP 4, 2012 | 14:07 GMT
Spain, France: Leaders Agree To Mo
Forward On Eurozone Crisis
OCT 10, 2012 | 12:16 GMT
Finland: Leaving Eurozone Not A
Solution To Crisis - President
AUG 21, 2012 | 08:54 GMT
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