IRI I dIRI Index · 10/11/2007 · Sindhi 14% Seraiki 10% Hindko 3% Graduate 7% MA/Prof’l 2% Balochi 2% Other 2%. ISSUES. ... The Taliban and Al Qaida operating in Waziristan is

IRI I dIRI IndexPakistan Public Opinion SurveyAugust 29 – September 13, 2007

Survey Methodology

• In-person, in-home interview

i l i l f d l • National representative sample of adult resident of Pakistan.

• n = 4,009

• Conducted between August 29, and g 9,September 13, 2007

• Margin of error ±1 58% overall• Margin of error ±1.58% overall

• Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO)Development Consultants (SEDCO)

Survey Methodology• A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four

provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage each district was further stratified by Union Councils.

• The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.

• The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. g y g , y y

• The response rate was just over 90 percent.

• The interview teams comprised both of male and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewersfemale interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers.

• Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

Male 58% Female 42%

Urban 36% Rural 64%

Monthly Household IncomeUp to Rs 3,000 7%

Urban 36% Rural 64%

Age

Up to 25: 28%

Rs 3,001 – 10,000 50%Rs 10,001 – 15,000 21%Rs 15,001 – 25,000 10%

26-35: 40%

36-50: 26%

50+: 6%

> Rs 25,000 3%

Language

U d %Education

Illiterate 16%Primary 14%

Urdu 10%

Punjabi 45%

Pashto 14%Primary 14%Middle 18%Matric 29%Intermediate 14%

Sindhi 14%Seraiki 10%

Hindko 3%4Graduate 7%MA/Prof’l 2%

Balochi 2%

Other 2%

ISSUESISSUES

When it come to casting your vote in the next election, which of these one issues determine which party you vote for?

(O E d d)(Open Ended)

20%

37%

Unemployment

Inflation

1%

3%

11%

20%

El t i it

Terrorism

Poverty

p y

3%

1%

1%

Education

Water

Electricity

2%

10%

1%

Democratic reforms

Law and Order

Corruption

1%

2%

Development

Islamization

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Agree or Disagree?Religious extremism is a serious problem in PakistanReligious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan

74% 21% 5%Sept-07

64% 21% 16%June-07

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree Disagree DK/NR

Agree or Disagree?

57% 33% 10%The Taliban and Al Qaidaoperating in Waziristan is

a serious problem

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Agree or disagree? The Army should have no role in civilian

government

62% 30% 7%Sept-07

55% 40% 5%June-07

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Agree or disagree?Musharraf should resign as Army Chief of Staff

20% Di76% Agree 20% Disagree

70% 6% 5% 15% 3%Sept-07

62% A 33% Di62% Agree 33% Disagree

41% 21% 13% 20% 5%June-07

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree DK/NA

Agree or Disagree?Musharraf should remain as Army Chief of

ff i d biliStaff in order to promote stability

17%7%

Agree

Disagreeg

DK/NR

76%

Would you support or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Musharraf to remain as

both President and Army Chief of Staff?both President and Army Chief of Staff?

68% Oppose23% Support pppp

8% 15% 12% 56% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NA

Agree or Disagree?The government should declare an emergencyThe government should declare an emergency.

8%9%

Agree

Disagree

83%

g

DK/NR

83%

M h f d Musharraf and Bhutto Deal

Should Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf make a deal?Musharraf make a deal?

60%

43%

36%

49%

37%

47%

40%

50%

36%

%

35%

30%

40%

Feb-07

June-07

Sept 0721%

16%16%

10%

20%

Sept-07

0%

10%

Yes No DK/NR

Should Bhutto and Musharraf make a deal?PPPP voters (n=1 123) and PML-Q voters (n=641)PPPP voters (n 1,123) and PML Q voters (n 641)

8%

63%58%

70%

58%53%

5

50%

60%

31%

37%31% 29%

30%

40%Yes-June

No-June

Yes-Sept

20%

30%No-Sept

0%

10%

PPPP Voters PML-Q Voters

What would you prefer Benazir Bhutto and the PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with

h f dMusharraf and PML-Q ?

8%

60%

48%

40%

50%

29%

17%20%

30%

7%

17%

10%

20%

0%

Join APDM Make a dealwith Musharraf

Neither DK/NR

and PML-Q

What would you prefer Bhutto and PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with Musharraf and PML-Q ?

( )PPPP voters (n=1,123)

41%

47%

45%

50%

41%

35%

40%

45%

%

25%

30% Join APDM

Make a deal

Neither

7%10%

15%

20% DK/NR

3%7%

0%

5%

PPPP Voters

Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with President Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or

improve her personal situation ?improve her personal situation ?47%

45%

50%

27% 26%30%

35%

40%

27% 26%

%

20%

25%

30%

5%

10%

15%

0%

Bring democracy toPakistan

Improve personalsituation

DK/NR

Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or improve her

personal situation? PPPP voters (n=1 123)personal situation? PPPP voters (n=1,123)

47%

%

50%

35%

40%

45%

27% 26%

20%

25%

30%

10%

15%

20%

0%

5%

Bring democracy to Improve personal DK/NRg yPakistan

p psituation

/

Would you like Benazir Bhutto more or less than you do now if she made a deal with President Musharraf?

65% More 14% Less

31% 34% 14% 7% 7% 7%PPP voters n=1123

38% More 34% Less

16% 22% 13% 21% 12%16%All voters

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Like much more Like little more No changeLike little less Like much less DK/NR

N ti l M dNational Mood

Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

73%%

80%

g

59%

73%

%50%

60%

70%

33%

43% 43%38%

44% 44%46%

30%

40%

50%

33

19%

10%

20%

30%

0%

10%

June-06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll

Right Direction Wrong Direction

In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?

56%

60%

p , y

56%

35%%40%

50%

29%24%

33% 34%30%

35%34%

30%

24%

19%10%

20%

4% 3% 1%0%

Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll

Better Worse Same DK/NR

Thinking about next year do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the

%40%

45%

g , g ysame?

34%

8%30% 30% 31%

34%

41%

30%

31%30%

35%

40%

27%

22%

28%

20%21%

3 330%

18%15%

28%

20%

25%

13% 18%18%14%

5

%

10%

15%

0%

5%


Better Worse Same DK/NR

Agree or Disagree?I feel more secure this year than I did last yearI feel more secure this year than I did last year

12%

23%

65%

12%

Sept 07

23%

6%

39%

56%

6%

June 07

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


In your opinion how has the government performed on the issues that are important to you?

3%

Very good Good Poor Very poor DK/NR

11%

38%

3%

22% Good

11%

38%

75% Poor

37%

In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you?

75%

%

80%

p y

61% 58%

50%

60%

70%

38%34%30%

40%

50%

22%

10%

20%

30%

5% 4% 3%0%

10%

Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll

Good Poor DK/NR

Would you say that the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election?

73%%

80%

g g j

73%

58%50%

60%

70%

34%37%

%

37%

58%

36%42%

35%30%

40%

50%

19%

28% 28%25%

%

33%36%

10%

20%

30%

9% 8%0%

10%


Yes No DK/NR

RATINGSRATINGS

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing?

62%63%60%

70%

g

49%

62%3

54%

60%

50%

60%

34%

26%%30%

40%

21%22% 26%23%

10%

20%

0%

June 06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll

Approve Disapprove

In 1999, President Musharraf laid out a Seven Point Agenda for the country, which outlined the areas he would focus on d i hi id H ld t th P id t’ during his presidency. How would you rate the President’s

achievements on the following points?

% 6%

48% 18%

Devolution of power to the

Ensuring swift and across theboard accountability

48% 18%

47% 23%

50% 46%

Ensuring law and order and

Depoliticizing stateinstitutions

Devolution of power to thegrassroots level

45% 21%

47% 41%

48% 18%

Strengthening the Federation

Reviving the econom y andrestoring investor confidence

gdispensing speedy justice

53% 33%

45% 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rebuilding nationalconfidence and m orale

Strengthening the Federation

Good June-07 Good Sept-07

Some people have called for the resignation of President Musharraf. Do you think he should resign?

70%80%

63%

60%

70%

%

40%

50%

Jun-07

Sept-07

19%

8%8%

25%

20%

30%

8%4%

5%8%

0%

10%

Yes No Maybe DK/NR

Who do you believe can best steer the country out of the present crisis Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto?present crisis, Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto?

45%

42%35%

40%

45

33%

%30%

42%

27%20%

25%

30%

Jun-07

Sept-07

19%23%

7

10%

15%

20% Sept-07

0%

5%

M h f Bh tt DK/NRMusharraf Bhutto DK/NR

Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan?

36%35%

40%

p g

32%28%27%

3

26%23% 24%

32%28%

25%

30%

35%

17%15%

21%21%23% 24%

16% 14%15%

20%

3% 3% 4% 3%3%

6% 5%4% 3% %

16% 14%

3%4%5%

10%

3% 3% 3%

0% 0%

3%3% 2% 1%3%

0%


Bhutto Musharraf Nawaz Fazal-ur Rehman

Qazi Hussain Imran Khan Altaf Hussein

Best Leader by Provincey65%

55%60%

70%

30%40%

50%

60%

30%

17%14% 13%

19%

11%

20%

27%

10%

15% 16%

%

20%

30%

10%5%

4%4%4%1%

4%1%3%

7%2%1% 1%0%

4%0%

0%

10%

Punjab Sindh NWFP BalochistanPunjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

Bhutto Musharraf Nawaz Sharif

Imran Khan Qazi Hussain Fazal-ur-Rehman

Altaf Hussein

How would you rate each of the following political personalities? personalities?

Benazir Bhutto Altaf Hussain Nawaz Sharif

Qazi Hussain Pervez Musharraf Imran Khan

Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman

45%50%

53%

45%

51% 46%

54%

6%

38%

45%

36%31%

40%45%

40%46%

35%3

22%18%

16%19% 15% 21%

27%

%16%

17% 18%18%

22%

%

6%7%9%11% 9%16%

13%16%11%14%

Jun-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07

Agree or Disagree?I would like President Musharraf more than I do

if h i d f hnow if he resigned from the Army

39% Agree 48% Disagreeg 48% Disagree

18% 21% 15% 33% 14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%4

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree DK/NR

How would you rate each of the following institutions?

% % % %%

64

%

65

%

0%

68

%

%

80

%

67%

64

%

80

%

62

%

82

%

70%

77% 80

%

82

%

%

60

55

%

49

%

57 %

55

%

48

% 51%

49

%

47%

41%

49

%

6

50

%

49

%

42

% 46

%

41% 42

%

34

%2

8%

28

%

24

%

3%

13

al ly nt n

my ce ts al s ia n

Na

tio

na

Ass

em

bl

Go

ve

rnm

en

Op

po

siti

on

Arm

Po

lic

Co

urt

Po

liti

caP

art

ies

Me

di

Ele

ctio

nC

om

mis

sio

n

G C

Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07

ELECTIONSELECTIONS

Do you support the re-election of President Musharraf to another term?

50% Support 40% Oppose

27% 23% 11% 29% 10%Feb-07 poll



21% 12% 15% 49% 3%June-07 poll


16% 7% 12% 62% 3%Sept-07 poll

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NAStrongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NA

Musharraf Re-election by Province

22% 76%Punjab

27% 68%Sindh

22% 77%NWFP

17% 77%Balochistan

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Support Oppose

Agree or disagree?President Musharraf should stand for re-election

before the current assembliesbefore the current assemblies

48% Disagree43% Agree

20% 23% 19% 29% 9%Feb 07 Poll

34% Agree 62% Disagree

16% 18% 22% 40% 4%June 07 Poll

13% 7% 12% 62% 6%Sept 07 Poll

74% Disagree20% Agree

13% 7% 12% 62% 6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Sept 07 o

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

Thinking about President Musharraf, would you support his re-election if ?would you support his re election if…..?

% 8% %

Musharraf stands for re-election before the

bli d 20% 78% 4%

Musharraf stands for re

current assemblies anddoes not resign from the

Army

23% 72% 5%

Musharraf stands for re-election before the

current assemblies butresigns from the Army

first

39% 50% 11%

Musharraf resigns fromthe Army, first holds

parlimentary elections,then stands for re-

election before the new

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

election before the newassemblies

Support Oppose DK/NR

Are you registered to vote?

17%

5%Yes

No

78%

DK/NR

78%

If not, why are you not registered to vote? (n=200)(n 200)

35%Not on voter list

26%Do not have ID card

12%Not interested in politics

7%Other

20%NR

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

If elections for national assembly were held this weekend how likely is it that you would vote? weekend how likely is it that you would vote?

13% %

5% 6%6% 5% 8%1%1%

90%

100%

17% 13% 11%

70%

80%

90%

78% 82% 82%94% 93%

40%

50%

60%

10%

20%

30%

0%

10%

Jun-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07

Very/Somewhat Not very/Not at all DK/NR

If unlikely, why wouldn’t you vote? (n=241)(n 241)

22%

N bl l d

No use casting vote

33%

6%

Women not allowed to

Do not have ID card

No capable leader orparty

%

5%

5%

Not interested in politics

Women not allowed tovote

1%

5%

10%

DK

Other

Not on voters list

14%

1%

NR

DK

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

If the elections for National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?

36%35%

40%

, p y y

28%22%

32%26%27%

23%24%%

25%

30%

16%14% 15%

19%

10%

419%22%

10%

15%

20%

5%1%3%

1%

10%5%5% 5% 5%

2%4%3%2%

5%0%

5%

10%

Sept 06 Poll Feb 07 Poll June 07 Poll Sept 07 Poll

PPPP PML-Q

PML-N Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)

DK/NR

Party Vote By Province-PUNJAB

Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07

PPPP 13% 17% 22% 14%

PML-Q 39% 30% 27% 21%

PML-N 18% 23% 30% 54%

MMA 1% 4% 4% 4%

PTI 1% 2% 5% 4%

Party Vote By Province-SINDH


PPPP 6% % 6 % 6 %PPPP 46% 57% 60% 64%

PML-Q 14% 9% 14% 8%

PML-N 6% 3% 4% 4%

MMA 5% 4% 2% 1%

MQM 13% 11% 6% 5%

Party Vote By Province-NWFP


PPPP 18% 12% 25% 17%

PML-Q 8% 18% 20% 17%

PML-N 12% 9% 11% 27%

MMA 13% 10% 9% 10%

PTI 2% 5% 9% 13%

ANP 6% 7% 7% 3%

Party Vote By Province-BALOCHISTAN


PPPP 24% 22% 34% 29%

PML Q % % % %PML-Q 11% 44% 27% 12%

PML-N 1% 1% 1% 9%

MMA 30% 9% 20% 15%

PKMAP 15% 5% 7% 9%

ANP 1% 1% 3% 7%

BNP 5% 7% 3% 5%

Recently some opposition parties decided to form the All-Parties Democratic Movement. Do you

h APDM?support the APDM?

5%14%

%

Yes

No

Maybe55%

26%DK/NR

If the elections were held next week and the following were the parties that formed coalitions,

hi h f h ld f ?which of these would you vote for?

40% 39%40%

45%

30%

35%

40%

20%

25%

30%APDM

PML-Q/PPPP

Neither

7%

15%

10%

15%

20% Neither

DK/NR

7%

0%

5%

10%

0%

If Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan, would you be more likely or less likely to support PML-N?more likely or less likely to support PML N?

55% 19% 20% 6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%4

More likely No change Less likely DK/NR

Do you believe that elections under president Musharraf in uniform will be free and fair?Musharraf in uniform will be free and fair?

24%19%

Yes

No

DK/NR

58%

President Musharraf recently stated that exiled leaders would NOT be allowed to participate in the next election.

di i h hi d i i ?Do you agree or disagree with this decision?

8%

5%DK/NR

66%

78%Disagree

Sept-07

Jun-07

26%Agree

17%Agree

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Documents

IRI I dIRI Index · 10/11/2007 · Sindhi 14% Seraiki 10% Hindko 3% Graduate 7% MA/Prof’l 2% Balochi 2% Other 2%. ISSUES. ... The Taliban and Al Qaida operating in Waziristan is