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Executive Summary• Turkish military forces extend ground operations into northern Dohuk, as nationwide ISIS conflict intensifies across
key battlefields.
• ISF units record further gains in battle to encircle Fallujah and Ramadi cities amid a reduced VBIED threat in the capital Baghdad.
• Frequency of urban protests fall for third consecutive week to early August levels, with popular demonstrations primarily confined to the populated areas of Basra, Najaf and Nasiriyah cities.
National OverviewTurkish military forces extend ground operations into northern Dohuk, as nationwide ISIS conflict intensifies across key battlefields. Although Monday’s incursion is at present understood to have been a lim-ited operation, launched in response to the killing of some 16 Turkish soldiers by Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) forces on Sunday September 6 in south-eastern Turkey, the potential for a further expansion of conflict on the Iraqi border remains high. Recent aviation activity by the Turkish government in the PKK strongholds of Zakhu, Amadiya and Qandil on the Dohuk-Erbil frontier has followed closely with the development of the PKK campaign within the Turkish republic over recent months, with a hardening of rhetoric in Ankara from September 7 anticipated to bring further shelling and military intervention in the coming week in the absence of any meaning-ful deal with the PKK leadership. It is import-ant nonetheless to reiterate that while such activity continues to represent a major cause of displacement and security risk to residents along the northern Iraqi-Turkish border, foreign military activity has not resulted In any wider destabilization of the key Kurdish oil and gas fields or indeed in the administrative centers of Erbil and Sulaimaniyah where local sources recorded an absence of any major security challenges for another consecutive week. Further south, Iraq’s political reform protest movement saw further instances of demon-stration and unrest in the national capital Baghdad along with a number of provincial territories, while in Anbar and Kirkuk, ISIS forces expanded efforts to reclaim the initiative from joint Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)-coalition security operations.
Security AnalysisSeptember 8 - 14, 2015
Reported Violent Incidents September 8 - 14, 2015
DOHUK
BASRAMUTHANNA
DHI QARNAJAF
MAYSANQADISIYA
KARBALA BABILWASIT
BAGHDADANBAR
ERBIL
SULAIMANIYA
DIYALA
SALAHUDDIN
KIRKUK
NINEVEH
Over 30 Incidents
Over 10 Incidents
Over Five Incidents
At Least One Incident
No Incidents
Northern Region Baiji, Kirkuk frontlines experi-ence renewed pressure from ISIS forces, contributing to a wider increase in levels of violence across the north. Although major cities beyond Baiji have remained largely secure over the past two weeks, Islamic state fighters have exhib-ited little signs of reducing activity while the summer fighting season continues, with increased threats across key transit routes and on central oilfields identified in recent days. In Baiji, this counter offen-sive has seen armed groups once again contest ISF positions on the Albu Juwari heights north of the city (alongside mortar fire against the Ajail oilfields), while in Kirkuk, Peshmerga operations in the Daquq area continue to be reported amid a resurgence of mili-tant activity in the Atshana area 30 kilometers west of the capital. While at present the risk of further ISIS assaults on Kirkuk city itself remain low, given the large scale deployment of Peshmerga personnel across all major highways and access points, ISIS raids have typically occurred with little warning in the area and will remain a pressing threat while Kurdish oper-ations remain diverted by the fightback in the south.
Central Region ISF units record further gains in battle to encircle Fallujah and Ramadi cities amid a reduced VBIED threat in the capital Bagh-dad. Initial successes are understood to have occurred following the combined ISF advance into Hitawiyeen, Krush and Albu Huwa in the southern precincts of Fallujah city from September 8 onwards producing a robust counter-response from ISIS mil-itants around the Fallujah University complex. As recently as September 13 heavy clashes were recorded in the vicinity of the university facility itself, while to the north-east in Karma, insurgent forces continue to resist efforts by the security forces to clear the town-ship. While the prospect of a full blockade of Fallujah
is now more likely than at any point following the loss of the city in late 2013, a full-scale clearance of the city will nonetheless remain extremely challenging while military resources are diverted towards Karma. Local sources have also indicated that ISF units are now in possession of the Duwaliyah and Samala vil-lages directly west of Baghdadi in Hit, which if con-firmed would represent the most significant exchange of territory on the far western frontline in over four months. As before, fluctuations across the Anbar battlefront have resulted in only marginal change to conditions in Baghdad, with risk of small arms fire (SAF) and public demonstrations set to remain the principal challenges in the areas of new Baghdad and Rusafa respectively over the coming week.
Southern Region Frequency of urban protests fall for third consecutive week to early August levels, with pop-ular demonstrations primarily confined to the populated areas of Basra, Najaf and Nasiriyah cities. While Triple Canopy continues to advise commercial teams to maintain vigilance against the risk of further demon-strations and road closures across the south’s main highways, the intensity of recent protests has nonethe-less fallen in the majority of southern jurisdictions over the past two weeks, including among those demon-strations targeting unemployment and other perceived grievances vis a vis international oil companies. Where local residents were mobilized against energy sector activity over the reporting period, the principal source of antagonism appears to have been efforts by the government administration in northern Muthanna to move local inhabitants away from the Hay Abd Abas pipeline. As with most demonstrations of this nature, the protest ended peacefully with no injury to security personnel or damage to private property. Tribal conflict has also remained an underlying challenge, primarily within Basra governorate, although at lower levels than witnessed from late August with the growth of the regional protest movement.
Security AnalysisSeptember 8 - 14, 2015
DAHUK
BASRAMUTHANNA
DHI QARNAJAF
MAYSANQADISIYA
KARBALA BABILWASIT
BAGHDAD
ANBAR
ERBIL
SULAIMANIYA
DIYALA
SALAHUDDIN
KIRKUK
NINEVEH
Dohuk
Sinjar
Rabia
Mosul
SulaymaniyahKirkuk
ErbilTal Afar
Hawija
Badkdida
Al Qairm
Baiji
Tikrit
Rutba
Samarra
Baqubah
BaghdadRamadi
Hit
Haditha
Habbaniyah
Ad Diwaniyah NajafAl Amarah
Nasiriyah
Basra
Fallujah
Muqdadiyah
Abu Ghraib
Taji
Khalis
Khanaqin
Sulaiman Beg
Jalawla
Sadia
Tuz Khurmatu
HillahKarbala
Kut
LEGENDKRG Territory
Kurdish Held City
ISF Held City
ISIS Held City
Disputed City
Peshmerga Controlled Areas
Key Security EventsSeptember 8 - 14, 2015
BAghDAD, SEpTEmBER 11: Around 1,500 people demonstrated in Baghdad’s Tahrir square demanding political reforms within the Federal government, ending in the early evening without inci-dent.
ANBAR, SEpTEmBER 10: Iraqi security forces supported by tribal militias regained control of the Albu Aytha bridge area in Ramadi city, amid widespread territorial acquisitions in Hit and south-eastern Fallujah.
DohuK, SEpTEmBER 8: Turkish military forces cross the Iraq-Turkey border in pursuit of PKK fighters as part of limited operations in the Zakhu area. The raid followed a day of heavy shelling across suspected PKK-supported areas of northern Iraq in response to bombings in south-eastern Turkey.
BASRA, SEpTEmBER 8: ISF personnel were deployed to the Al Hartha area of Basra province to prevent the outbreak of skirmishes between two tribes who had gathered in response to a recent series of bombings against clan members in the province. No police personnel were injured, with both sides subsequently with-drawing from the area.
KIRKuK, SEpTEmBER 11: Peshmerga security forces supported by coa-lition airstrikes conducted major counter-ter-rorism operations in the southern Daquq area of Kirkuk province, reportedly regaining control of 13 villages within a 150 kilometer square radius.
Politics and Security• Turkey Sends ground Forces Into Iraq After mili-tant Attacks – BBC News. Turkish ground forces have crossed into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish militants for the first time since a ceasefire two years ago. Government officials said the incursion was a “short-term” measure to hunt down PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) rebels. Turkish war-planes also launched a wave of air strikes on PKK bases in northern Iraq on Tuesday. Meanwhile, at least 14 Turkish police officers died in a bomb attack blamed on Kurdish militants on Tuesday. The attack in eastern Igdir province came a day after suspected PKK bombs killed at least 16 Turkish soldiers in south-eastern Hakkari region. Full Article
• ISIS Assault Defeated by peshmerga in Tal Afar – Rudaw. Islamic State militants launched an assault on a Peshmerga stockade in Gurmz village near Tal Afar, and after three hours of fighting were repelled by Peshmerga forces, according to a Peshmerga official Saturday. “At 6:15 am, ISIS fighters launched an attack on Peshmerga fronts in Tal Afar,” Khawal Khodiayd, the commander of the Peshmerga 1st Battalion in Shingal, told Rudaw. He added the attack did not result in Peshmerga casualties, saying that US-led coalition airstrikes had cooperated with the Peshmerga to combat ISIS in Tal Afar. On Friday, the Kurdistan region’s Peshmerga forces completed an operation that pushed ISIS militants out of areas south of Kirkuk, military sources told Rudaw. Full Article
• Russian Flights over Iraq and Iran Escalate Ten-sion With uS – New York Times. Russia is using an air corridor over Iraq and Iran to fly military equipment and personnel to a new air hub in Syria, openly defying American efforts to block the shipments and significantly increasing tensions with Washington. American offi-cials disclosed Sunday that at least seven giant Russian Condor transport planes had taken off from a base in southern Russia during the past week to ferry equipment to Syria, all passing through Iranian and Iraqi airspace. Their destination was an airfield south of Latakia, Syria, which could become the most significant new Russian military foothold in the Middle East in decades, American officials said. Full Article
Kurds Gain Ground Against Islamic State in Northern Iraq Kurdish forces backed by air strikes from a US-led coalition drove Islamic State militants out of nine villages in northern Iraq on Friday, Kurdish authorities said. The assault began at dawn on two fronts in the northern province of Kirkuk, and by early after-noon, peshmerga forces had taken an area of over 150 square kilometers (60 square miles), the security council of the autonomous Kurdistan region said in a statement.
At least 40 insurgents were killed in the offensive in the Daquq area, some 175 kilometers (110 miles) north of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, the security council said. Of around 1,500 peshmerga who took part, four lost their lives, according to Kurdish fight-ers who took part in the battle. Most of the front line between peshmerga and Islamic State has not moved in months. The Kurds already control much of the territory they claim as their own, and have little incentive to push further into predominantly Arab towns and villages, except where they pose a direct threat to their region. Coalition warplanes targeted dozens of Islamic State positions, providing close air support to the peshmerga the security council said.
Source: Reuters. Full Article
.
News SummarySeptember 8 - 14, 2015
Economics and Business
• Iraq’s Bond Ambitions prompt Demands for Chunky Returns – Reuters. Iraq is gearing up to print its first international bond in almost a decade, with investors warning that the sovereign will have to pay eye-watering yields to raise a sizable amount. Iraq (B-/B-) is meeting investors this week in London for a US dollar-denominated benchmark-sized bond. The roadshow moves to the US next week. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan are the lead man-agers. A successful deal would stand in contrast to Kurdistan’s attempts to raise debt. The semi-autono-mous region in Northern Iraq has yet to price its deal after speaking to investors in July about a five-year bond placement, although it still hopes to do so. Full Article
• Iraq Seen Raising Southern oil Exports Amid War, pay Dispute – Bloomberg. Iraq plans to increase exports of Basrah crude by 26 percent next month, as the country continues to raise output amid fighting with militants and a payment dispute with the northern Kurdish region, according to a loading program obtained by Bloomberg News. The Middle Eastern country plans to export a combined 81 car-goes of Basrah Light and Basrah Heavy grade crudes totaling 114 million barrels in October, according to the program. That’s an increase from the 90.5 million barrels planned for shipment in September. Loading programs are planned schedules for shipments during a given month. Full Article
Key Upcoming DatesSept. 23 - 26 Eid al Adha
(Feast of the Sacrifice) National holiday
Iraq Warns Oil Companies of Spending Cuts
Iraq’s oil ministry has issued a stark warning to the international oil companies running its energy sector that it will slash spending in 2016 as the country feels the full effect of low crude prices and the fight against Islamic State. A September 6 letter from an oil minis-try official is fresh evidence that Iraq is struggling to maintain a swift expansion of its energy sector that has made it the Organization of the Petroleum Export-ing Countries’ second-largest producer with 4 million barrels a day or more this summer.
The letter – addressed to “all contractors” and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal – warned big oil companies in Iraq such as Eni SpA of Italy, Russia’s Lukoil Holdings, Anglo-Dutch firm Royal Dutch Shell PLC and UK giant BP PLC to submit conservative fund-ing requests in 2016. Independent energy companies maintain and expand Iraq’s fields with government money and are reimbursed for production with oil. “Because of the drop in our oil-sales revenues, the Iraqi government has sharply reduced the funds avail-able to the Ministry of Oil,” the official wrote.
Source: WSJ Full Article
News SummarySeptember 8 - 14, 2015
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