iPolitics Election in Review

8/7/2019 iPolitics Election in Review

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CON167 NDP102 LIB 34 BQ 4 GRN1

Because Canadians chose hope, we can now begin to cometogether again, as we must, as Canadians, as fellow citizens,friends and neighbours.

Pm Mst Stph Hp ccpts hs mjt mdt Cg M 2.

MAJORIY RULES

Designed by Jessie Willms.


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Choosing historic change over status quo,Canadian voters have handed the Conser-

vatives a majority government and giventhe NDP its rst crack at Ocial Opposi-tion.

Canadas electorate dramatically alteredthe parliamentary landscape by sideliningthe Liberals, kicking out all but our mem-bers o the Bloc Quebecois, and sendingthe very rst Green Party MP to the Houseo Commons.

Michael Behiels, a proessor o politicalhistory at the University o Ottawa, calledthe outcome a major transormation. Butthe unprecedented victory or Jack Lay-tons NDP may wield little inuence overPrime Minister Stephen Harpers agendain the end.

Now that he has a majority, it doesnt re-ally matter whether theyre NDPs or Lib-erals in opposition, Behiels told iPolitics.He has control over the Senate, so the op-position will be screaming and hollering,but theres not a lot they can do. With a

majority, he will push his agenda and leg-islation without any need to compromiseon anything.

One major change Behiels epects willcome with a Harper majority governmentis a decentraliation that will give moreunding and decision-making powers tothe provinces.

Harper achieved his majority mandatewith a big breakthrough in Ontario, pick-ing up 11 more seats than in 2008 andmaking critical penetration in the ormerortress o oronto. Behiels said Conserva-

tive inroads in key parts o Ontario meansHarper will be orced to shue a bit to themiddle to keep his caucus happy.

Now that Ontario is so heavily inthere, I think the so-cons (social conser-

vatives) will be held at bay, he said. Alot o those winning seats in the urbanareas will be more moderate conserva-tives. his may move him slightly moreto the centre now that he has more mem-bers coming rom Atlantic Canada and

Ontario. Compromises will be made incaucus and cabinet to accommodate a loto the social issues.

In Calgary, Harper was humble in ac-cepting his majority mandate, praisinghis opponents and promising to representall o Canadas regions and citiens nomatter how they cast their ballots.

At the end o it all, Canadians made thiscritically important decision today theychose hope, unity o purpose and a strongCanada, he told the cheering throngs osupporters as tears streamed down the ace

o his wie Laureen. And because Canadi-ans chose hope, we can now begin to cometogether again, as we must, as Canadians,as ellow citiens, riends and neighbours.For our part, we are intensely aware thatwe are, and we must be, the government oall Canadians including those who didnot vote or us.

Conservative Sen. Marjory LeBreton,who travelled on Harpers tour, said secur-ing a majority wil l allow the government tocarry out long-term planning without theguillotine o an election threat hanging

overhead. Key priorities will be passing thebudget and leover criminal justice legislation, she said.

Te NDP wave in Quebec means doenso rookie parliamentarians will occupyseats in the Commons. And while the NDPsurge putting the boot to the Bloc Quebe-cois is a good thing or Canada, LeBretonnoted it also reduced the Conservativecount in the province to si ve less thanin 2008.

Tats a disappointment, but in noway will it afect the way the governmenthandles issues in Quebec. Well have goodcabinet representation, she said.

Harper promised to get back to worksoon, and while the new dynamics takeshape inside the resh Parliament, partypolitics will also be at play outside theCommons. Gilles Duceppe quit as Blocleader last night and Liberal Leader Mi-chael Ignatief, who ofered to stay on tohelp rebuild the party aer leading it tocrushing deeat, may be net to go.

Layton, who had limped out o the cam-paign gate but sprinted to a record-settingnish, etended an olive branch to Harperofering to work together in the best interests o Canadian amilies and to ostera respectul, positive House o CommonsBut he vowed to press or the priorities othe NDP: reducing poverty, tackling cli-mate change and repositioning Canada asa peacemaker around the world.

Ive always avoured proposition overopposition, but we will oppose the government when its of track, he said.

Canadianschoose changefor 41st

Parliamentu, M 3, 2011KaHleen HarriS


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ake a look at the net Parliament andwho wont be walking the halls o the Hill.No Michael Ignatief, no Gilles Duceppe.Gone too are our Conservative cabinetministers, hockey legend Ken Dryden and

vocal opposition critics Mark Holland andUjjal Dosanjh.

Tey are among about a doen well-

known incumbents who lost their seatsMonday night, victims o the massive shito the NDP, the collapse o the Bloc Que-becois, and the dramatic drop in Liberalortunes.

iPolitics.ca has compiled a list o high-prole ormer Parliamentarians whom

voters rejected, some to nobodys surpriseand others to everbodys shock:

Liberal leader Michael Ignatief: Tis isa story that none o the political pundits

or seat projectors saw coming. Te Lib-eral leader was one o the many casua ltiesas the partys ortress oronto sufered acritical blow. Consultant Bernard rottierclaimed Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding inthe oronto suburbs, stealing it rom theLiberal leader aer he won handy victoriesin 2006 and 2008.

Bloc Qubcois leader Gilles Duceppe:Te party leader was one o the doens oincumbents who ell victim to the Blocsdecimation in Quebec, losing to New

Democrat Hlene Laverdiere. Duceppewas rst elected in Laurier-St.-Marie in a1990 by-election. His deeat 21 years laterollowed a victory by a massive margin o15,000 votes in 2008. Pundits, who startedto speculate about Duceppes ouster in thewaning hours o the election campaign,say that he ran a lacklustre campaign inhis Montreal constituency.

Cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon: Inthe Pontiac riding just across the riverrom Ottawa, the dramatic ascent o NDP

ortunes in Quebec claimed Canadas or-eign afairs minister. Te Conservativeheavyweight was deeated by come-latelyNew Democrat Mathieu Ravignat, a ka-rate teacher and social science researcherwho was nominated just two weeks ago.Cannon, who took a mid-campaign breakto attend Libya talks oversees, had held

this largely rural riding since 2006. How-ever, NDP support in the neighbouringridings o Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau hada spillover efect.

Cabinet minister Jose Verner: Te in-tergovernmental afairs minister in theHarper cabinet, Verner lost her QuebecCity seat o Louis-Saint-Laurent to Al-eandrine Latendresse, a young and un-known New Democrat. Tere was specu-lation in the late days o the campaign

that Verner was vulnerable and she ailedto survive the massive swing to the le.Verners deeat came aer she won her rid-ing by 10,000 votes in 2008.

Cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn:Te veterans afairs minister in the Harp-er cabinet ought a losing three-way battlewith the Bloc and the NDP. In the end, helost his Jonquiere-Alma seat to New Dem-ocrat Claude Patry, a union boss and 35-year veteran o the Alcan plant. Te ridingwas once held by ormer Bloc leader Luc-

ien Bouchard and Blackburn seied it by anarrow margin in 2006, winning a bigger

victory in 2008.

Liberal Mark Holland: Te Liberal criticon public saety and one o the most vo-cal MPs on the opposition benches wasbumped of by Conservative star candi-date Chris Aleander, a ormer ambassa-dor to Aghanistan. Dubbed the Liberalattack dog on all things law and order,Holland took on the Harper governmenton everything rom prison building to G8

security spending. Te act that he was ahome-town boy was not enough to savethis scrappy 36-year-old in the orontoeurb riding o Aja-Pickering.

Liberal Ken Dryden: Te NHL hockeylegend saw 50 years o consecutive Lib-eral victories in the oronto riding o York

Centre slip away, losing the seat to Conservative Mark Adler. Dryden, a cabineminister in the Paul Martin cabinet, hadbeen attacked by his opponents or be-ing absent in the riding between electionsand skipping too many votes in the Houseo Commons in recent years. He saw his

vote share diminish steadily in each o thelast our elections. Te constituency has alarge Jewish population, and the Harpergovernments strong support o Israel wasconsidered to be a actor against Dryden.

Liberal Joe Volpe: Te ormer immigration minister in the Paul Martin govern-ment, Volpe held the Liberal strongholdo Eglinton-Lawrence since 1988. Volpewas deeated by Joe Oliver, a lawyer andbusinessman whom Volpe beat by a barelycomortable 2,000 votes in 2008. Te o-ronto constituency was one o several 416seats to all to Conservative challengersgiven the party its rst breakthrough inoronto since 1988. Volpe, while creditedwith being a workhorse or his constitu

ency, was a casualty o a deection o tra-ditional Liberal voters, mainly Jewish andItalian, to the Conservatives.

Independent Helena Guergis: Tis eistyormer Conservative cabinet, runningas an independent aer Prime MinisterStephen Harper kicked her out o caucusdidnt come anywhere near her Conservative challenger Kellie Leitch, a physicianand ormer Order o Canada recipientIn act, Guergis didnt even nish secondin Simcoe-Grey, aer winning handily in

Stars whowont be backon the Hill

u, M 3, 2011JaniCe ibbeS


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2008. In the end, the Conservative nameprevailed and the party did not pay a priceor ousting Guergis, or what turned out to

be unounded criminal al legations.

Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh: Another vocal crit-ic who relentlessly took the Harper gov-ernment to task over what it knew aboutAghanistan torture, among other things.B.C.s ormer NDP premier, Dosanjh losthis Vancouver South riding in a tight raceagainst Conservative Wei Young, whomhe beat by only 22 votes in 2008. Te Con-servatives have paid a lot o attention tothis ethnically diverse constituency, inpart because the election outcome is con-

sidered to be an indication o the partyssupport among Chinese Canadians.

Cabinet minister Gary Lunn: Anothercabinet minister in the Harper govern-ment, Lunn was unseated by EliabethMay, giving the Green party its rst MPin Canadian history. A longtimer rom theReorm days, Lunn ell aer winning theriding by 2,000 votes in 2008. Many pun-dits were predicting Lunns return to Ot-tawa, in the ace o dwindling Green sup-port nationwide. However, May managedto capture enough votes rom traditionalNDP and Liberal supporters to comort-ably secure the seat.

Liberal Ruby Dhalla: Her riding oBrampton-Springdale became a ercebattleground between the Liberals and

Conservatives in their bids to dominatenew and rapidly growing constituenciesin the oronto suburbs. Harper kickedof his campaign in Brampton andIgnatief stopped in to help try to deendthe constituency rom Parm Gill, theConservative victor.

Dhalla rst captured the riding in 2004and she was a well-known MP who madeheadlines two years ago when a ormernanny alleged she was eploited in theamily household. A court case remainsunsettled.


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Te much-anticipated NDP wave washedover Quebec Monday night, creating adramatic sea change in the politics in thatprovince.

A party which had only ever elected oneMP rom Quebec in a general election inits history, swept across Quebec winning58 o the provinces 75 seats. Te Liberalswere reduced to seven seats and the Con-servatives si. Te once dominant BlocQubcois was almost wiped of the elec-

toral map, managing to salvage only ourridings.A desire by Quebecers or change coupled

with NDP Leader Jack Laytons personalpopularity and the NDPs careul position-ing o itsel as an attractive alternative orQuebecs so nationalist voters appears tobe at the heart o the historic result.

However, it may be too soon to knowwhether Mondays election results signal arealignment o the ederalist-sovereignistdivide that has dominated ederal politicsin Quebec or the past 20 years.

Te results are a devastating blow or theBloc at least in the short term. It lost itsleader aer Gilles Duceppe lost his seat andresigned. It also lost its ocial party statusin the House o Commons along with thebudgets and resources that come with it.

Duceppe has so dominated the partysince he became leader that there is no ob-

vious successor.In the longer term, however, a majority

right wing Conservative government withlittle representation rom Quebec coupledwith an ocial opposition ull o rookie

Quebec MPs could potentially provide thesovereignist movement with the winningconditions it has been seeking or years.

While the Bloc has been decimated, themore important goal or the sovereignistmovement has always been orming thegovernment in Quebec and setting thestage or a reerendum. A recent LgerMarketing poll showed Pauline MaroisParti Qubcois with a comortable leadover Premier Jean Charests Liberals by 38

per cent to 31 per cent.A key challenge or NDP Leader JackLayton and his Quebec lieutenant TomasMulcair in coming weeks will be dealingwith a very large, and in many cases veryyoung, contingent o new NDP MPs romQuebec.

For eample, the NDP wave was so strongthat it even swept into oce an NDP can-didate who took of on a Las Vegas vaca-tion in the middle o the campaign.

Ruth Ellen Brosseau, an assistant man-ager o a Carleton University pub who has

diculty speaking French, is the new MPor the riding o the very French-speakingriding o Berthier-Maskinong east oMontreal.

In some cases, people who only a ewweeks ago were writing nal eams oruniversity will now be members o Parlia-ment with salaries o $157,731.

Only two members o the NDPs Quebeccaucus have any eperience as MPs Mul-cair and Franoise Boivin, a ormer LiberalMP who won the riding o Gatineau. Ahandul o others such as Romeo Saganash

o the Grand Council o the Cree have hadeperience in political arenas.

What remains o the Conservatives Que-bec caucus has more eperience and threehave served as cabinet ministers Chris-tian Paradis, Denis Lebel and Maime Bernier. However, it will be dicult or si MPsto carry much weight in a 167-membercaucus dominated by Ontario and Alberta.

Te Liberals, already diminished in previous elections have been reduced to seven

seats all o them in very anglophone andallophone areas o Montreal. But not eventhe Liberal partys last Quebec bastiono Montreal was sae. Key players in theLiberal partys Quebec caucus like Mar-lene Jennings and Pablo Rodrigue werewashed away in the NDP wave.

Former astronaut Marc Garneausqueaked through in Westmount-VilleMarie by a ew hundred votes aer a see-saw battle throughout the evening with theNDP.

Among those le, two are potential can

didates or the uture leadership o theparty Denis Coderre and Justin rudeauwho actually increased his margin o victory.

While many Liberals were still in shockMonday night, rudeau took heart in theact that Quebecers had opted or a partythat was both progressive and ederalist.

rudeau said the challenge or Liberalsnow is to rebuild.

I think the party has to ocus one o thethings that worked well here which is lead-ership rom the ground up.

NDP tsunamidevastates Bloc

Wd, ap 6, 2011

elizabeH HoMPSon


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#Elxn41: Fromcampaign stop

to photo op...


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It wasnt eactly a stellar night or Cana-das pollsters and seat projectors.

Te main polling rms underestimatedConservative strength, with none pro-

jecting Prime Minister Stephen Harperwould handily secure his coveted major-ity government.

While pollsters accurately tapped intothe dramatic rise o the NDP, they ailedto correctly measure Conservative sup-port o 40 per cent. Tose who took theetra step o venturing into seat projec-tions, missed the mark.

I totally blew the nal CPC strengthand missed the majority, acknowledgedEKOS president Frank Graves.

Well, that didnt go well, Eric Grenier,o the seat projection site threehundre-deight.com, wrote on his website. He wassignicantly of base in his predictions,

low-balling the Conservatives and NewDemocrats and signicantly over-esti-mating the Bloc Qubcois and Liberals.

Graves attributed his miscalculations also eperienced by several other poll-sters to a late deection o liberal vot-ers rom the centre and right in ear o theNDP.

Another story that political polling in-dustry missed was the near obliterationo the Bloc Qubois. Although they werewidely epected to plummet, the mainpolling rms and seat projectors did not

come close to projecting they could loseparty status by securing only our seats.

Te pollsters blurred crystal bal l ollowsmonths o internal dispute within the in-dustry. Some pollsters notably AllanGregg o Harris-Decima have bleaklyassessed the business as one plagued by

methodology problems in both telephoneand online surveys, which are skewing re-sults.

Te concern is that telephone surveys at-tract older Canadians, namely those whorely on land lines rather than cell phones.Online surveys, on the other hand, aresaid to attract younger voters.

Also, the industry has pointed a ngerat the media or over-hyping results. An-other identied problem is that responserates in general are declining as pollsterscompete with telemarketers.

Graves disputes that response rates areafecting results he said that credibleresearch shows it makes no diference.

Nonetheless, he said its time or poll-sters to do some soul-searching and lookat lessons that can be learned rom the2011 ederal election campaign, includingwildly uctuating pools through the earlyand middle weeks.

One possibility, he said, would be orthe notoriously competitive industry toset aside diferences and jointly devise agold-sealed election poll that is impec-

cable rom Day One.One pollster who was not talking about

lessons learned was Nik Nanos o NanosResearch. He came the closest o all thetop pollsters in assessing party supportincluding the Conservatives, whom hepegged at almost 39 per cent, based on

Sunday polling.Nanos numbers looking good, hewrote on witter as the election resultscame in.

Nanos was among the pollsters who didnot venture into seat projections.

In the end, the popular vote break-down was 39.62 per cent or the Conser-

vatives and 30.62 or the NDP. Te Liberals captured 18.91 per cent, while theBloc Qubcois took si per cent and theGreens almost our per cent.

A 2009 article by in Vue, the magaine

o the Market Research and IntelligenceAssociation, the umbrella group or theindustry, asserted that pollsters generallyhave perormed well in elections.

Tey have been particularly successuin telling the right story when it comesto trending which the article says is a

vital component o the job.Nonetheless, the article, by Leger Mar

keting pollsters, concluded that the in-dustry should start asking itsel questionsrather than just asking questions o po-tential voters.

It it timefor pollstersto question

themselves?

us., M 3, 2011JaniCe ibbeS


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Eliabeth May unseated Conservative cab-inet minister Gary Lunn with a resound-ing 48 per cent o the vote Monday night,becoming the rst elected Green in Cana-dian history. Te third time was the charmor May, who ran unsuccessully in Lon-don, Ont., and against Conservative starPeter MacKay in Nova Scotia.

Te eisty Green leader beamed Mon-day night when she delivered her victoryspeech to a large crowd o supporters onVancouver Island.

Were on V, guys! May said with alaugh upon taking the stage. Earlier in thenight, she had again epressed her anger atbeing le out o the televised national lead-ers debate.

oday, weve proved that Canadianswant change in politics, May said with anenormous smile. We ran a very non-parti-san campaign. We ran a co-operative cam-paign. She pledged to always speak truthto power as Saanich-Gul Islands electedMember o Parliament.

Te 2011 campaign marked the rst time

the Green Party embarked on a specicmission to elect its leader. Saanich-Gul Is-lands was identied as a riding with Greenleanings, and May moved to Sidney soonaer losing her 2008 bid to unseat MacKayin Central Nova.

Te Green team ocused heavily on theriding, with May spending three-quarterso her time there even beore the writ wasdropped. An August 2010 poll gave her 32per cent o the ridings support, slightlytrailing Lunn, who commanded 34 percent.

When the election was called, it was allhands on deck. Te party transerred near-ly $67,000 to its Saanich-Gul Islands rid-ing association in 2009, on top o a $25,500transer rom Central Nova. It opened twoconstituency oces, though one was tem-porarily closed aer a driver crashed intoit.

In contrast to 2008, when May launchedan etensive national tour, the party lead-er stayed close to home in 2011, spendingmany mornings on the side o the road,

waving to commuters.May inspired an eciting race, and11,000 voters came out to the advance pollsin Saanich-Gul Islands more than any-where else in British Columbia.

Te advance polls were considered key toa Green win, in order to capture votes romthe 4,000 University o Victoria studentswho live in the riding during the schoolyear, but were set to nish up their eamsbeore the Easter weekend. Te Greenscourted the early vote, including a stunt onthe Tursday night in which Young Greens

drew lines with sidewalk chalk to point theway to polling stations. Te efort paid of and the returning ocer even reportedmany young people had taken advantage othe special ballot option that allows peopleto vote even beore the advance polls. Maywent on to win by riding by 2,000 votes.

But the 2011 campaign was tougher orMay than the 2008 version. I wasnt e-pecting that, she told iPolitics.

Te greatest challenge was her ght to beincluded in the national leaders debates. Itwas a ght or democracy, she argued.

Te public outpouring o support orMay did not sway the consortium, and soshe took on a legal battle. She led a Char-ter challenge against the consortiums de-cision in ederal court, but this push wasderailed aer the judge reused her requestto have the case epedited in time or thedebates.

May became concerned that, in the ur-ry o coverage around the debate issuethe Green Partys status had actually beenhurt. I want issue coverage, she said

Weve been trivialied, as i Im a pushyoutsider trying to get in a door marked NoGreens.

But when Parliament reconvenes, therewill be a seat marked with Mays nameNo longer will she watch question periodrom the raers. Shell be the one ask-ing the questions, more than likely o herlongtime rival Prime Minister StephenHarper.

A gracious Harper congratulated Mayon her historic win when he deliveredhis own victory speech in Calgary Monday

night. She also received a congratulatoryphone call rom Lunn.

In 2008, Lunn won the riding with abou1,500 more votes than the Liberal candidate. But Harper knew the riding was vulnerable he made two trips to the ridingsince the writ dropped, the rst in Marchand the second during the Easter weekend

May said this election is a testament toCanadian democracy.

Its an election that proves that punditsarent very useul. Te electorate makes thedecision.

Green MPcelebrateshistoric victory:

Weve provedCanadians wantchange

u, M 3, 2011Sonya bell


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Te once-mighty Liberal Party has beenreduced to a rump.

A dismal electoral showing bleed-ing to the le and the right to nish witha record-low number o seats le manylong-time supporters soul-searching and

some openly weeping. Leader Michael Ig-natief accepted historic responsibility orhistoric deeat and instructed the party tolook in the mirror to determine what wentwrong and how to move orward.

Tere was a longing or change, a yearn-ing or change. We can be proud o the rolewe played in triggering that longing anddesire or change, unortunately we couldnot be the beneciaries o that longingor change, he said during a concessionspeech in oronto.

Making the already devastating blowworse, Ignatief lost his own seat in Etobi-coke-Lakeshore.

Liberals across the country have alreadybegun a post-mortem on what went wrong and when. Akaash Maharaj, a senior resi-dent at the University o orontos MasseyCollege and past Liberal national policychair, said its tough to pinpoint the prob-lems. With Canadians despairing over acrisis in democratic institutions, the par-ty should have been ghting an easy target.

Why, at a time when Canadians eel

there is such a serious problem in the polit-ical system, have Canadians not entrustedthe Liberal party to be the solution? heasked. Te Liberal Party will be engagedin a great deal o soul-searching or thenet ew months, asking the question, ithe Liberal Party can not deeat a Con-servative government that in the mindso Canadians has crippled democracy andmismanaged public nances, I think itsreasonable to ask itsel, in its current orm,who could it deeat?

Te Liberal Party brand took a beating

with the sponsorship scandal. But Maharajbelieves the party has also lost touch withits grassroots by adopting a presidential-style, leader-centric approach that ails toengage masses o liberal Canadians. Fortoo long, members have been living under

an illusion that a messiah will arrive tolead the party out o the wilderness.

I think the greater issue is that the partyhas been allowed, under a succession oleaders, to atrophy as a national politi-cal movement and increasingly become acampaigning vehicle or the leader o theday. And that is not a sustainable model,he said. I think Liberals have to conrontthe act that the leader has not been theproblem, nor is he the solution. It requiresa wholesale rejuvenation o the Liberal

Party as a national institution.Maharaj said Ignatief was damagedearly and badly by Conservative attack adsthat cast him as a visiting proessor. TeLiberals didnt ght back ast enough.

In politics, as in lie, you never get asecond chance to make a rst impression,he said. No political leader wants to ndhimsel in a position where he is being de-ned by his enemies instead o himsel.

Te Conservatives managed to take whatshould have been a great strength an in-ternationally respected intellectual and

turned it into a slur. In the end, the Liberalcampaign compounded its mistake by re-sponding late to the criticisms by repack-aging Ignatief.

Former Liberal cabinet minister JimPeterson said while there will be varyingopinions on what could have been donediferently, there is general agreement thatIgnatief delivered a strong perormanceand solid platorm. Some o the partysproblems that must be addressed are moresystemic, such as building strong undrais-ing and riding association networks.

I dont think we need radical reorm. Idont think we need bloodletting, he said

One veteran Liberal said insiders beganto get nervous aer the debates, whenNDP Leader Jack Layton scored powerupunches. Aer a strong start to the cam

paign, it was becoming clear Ignatief wasnot connecting outside core supporters.

Tat basically solidied in peoplesminds that the Liberals were over-condent, cocky, eeling they had some sort oright to govern, he said. It worked. Peoplealready had this view created by the Conservatives o the Liberals being elitist, andLayton was able, with his lines, to denethat in peoples minds.

Te unepected rise o the NDP presented a strategic conundrum, as the Libera

game plan has been to win over NDP sup-port to stop the Conservatives.When the NDP gets so strong that they

are tied or ahead o you, that strategy be-gins to backre on you, he said.

Post-election analysis wi ll no doubt pointo other problems including the partysailure to resonate outside big cities. Yetdespite the deeat, Liberals do not appearto be in a rush to embrace a unite-the-le movement an endeavor some believewould risk disenranchising even urtherthose in the centre-right o the party.

Maharaj said considering that kind oseismic shi in Canadian politics due toone election result would be a gross overreaction. Instead, the Liberals must workto rebuild and strengthen their support and learn rom strategic mistakes.

I suspect the NDP has ared well in thiscampaign because with the Conservativesand the Liberals attacking one another, theNDP has been able to come up the middleBy the time those two parties trained theirguns on the NDP, the campaign was virtu-ally over.

Liberal post-mortem beginsin wake of record defeat

us., M 3, 2011KaHleen HarriS


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Whether it was viral videos o Rick Mer-

cer urging youth to vote, a youth ashmobduring Stephen Harpers visit to Guelph, ora University o Western Ontario studentkicked out o a Conservative rally or hav-ing a picture with Michael Ignatief on herFacebook page the youth vote received alot o attention this election.

Oen, when youth come up during anelection its in reerence to their generallydismal turnout aer all, only 37.4 per cento 18 to 24 year olds voted in 2008.

While young voters are oen reerred toas a homogenous unit, its one o the most

diverse voter groups. Te youth vote rangesrom recent high school grads to young pro-essionals o all backgrounds in bothrural and urban ridings.

Near the end o the campaign, iPolitics.caand Postmedia News hosted Youth Debate2011 where young ederal party activistsused policy, platorm, and partisan jabs inan efort to win over the elusive youth vote.

Nearly 100 young people were in the au-dience, with more tuning in online, to hearConservative Alykhan Velshi, Liberal Eli-abeth Dubois, New Democrat Isaac Cock-

burn, and Green Jonathan Halas sound ofabout post-secondary education, job cre-ation, and electoral reorm.

Te debate was more civilied than thenational leaders debate, according to young

people in the audience.Tere was more actual discussion,Natalie remblay, 19, said. Te candidateswerent so polaried.

But the participants did stick close to theirparty lines including lines o attack.

Less than 20 minutes into the debate,Conservative representative Velshi brokeout a avourite Conservative buword, re-erring to his opponents as the oppositioncoalition. He also worked in two attackson Michael Ignatiefs years abroad, sayingit must have been in the United States that

the Liberal leader learned polarity and at-tack politics.

Liberal candidate Eliabeth Dubois redback that Ignatief embraces open andtransparent government, in contrast toHarper, who was ound in contempt o Par-liament and has banned young people romhis rallies on the basis o their Facebook ac-counts.

NDP representative Cockburn broke in tosay that this was the sort o partisan backand orth that Jack Layton would in Ot-tawa. He then decried Ignatiefs attendance

record in the House o Commons.Halas, the Green representative, brough

it ull circle when he ngered the Conservative Party as the rst to bring Americanstyle attack ads to Canada. He pointed out

that, in contrast, the Green Partys rst andonly attack ad this election was against at-tack ads.

During the 90-minute debate, the participants took questions rom the audience andover email and witter. Te queries werelargely youth-centred, such as where theparties stood on lowering the voting ageonline voting, tuition ees, and political representation o women and minorities.

Katherine DeClerq, 21, said it was a nicechange to hear about topics that are moreimportant to youth, such as electoral re-

orm.But Curtis Fraser, 28, said there was

no need to ocus on childish issues. Hewanted to see the pre-determined topics epanded to include international trade anddeence.

We make adult decisions about adult is-sues.

Tere are 3 million Canadians under age25 who are eligible to vote on May 2. Teyouth debate was organied and webcasby iPolitics and canada.com to encouragethem to cast their ballot.

Adult decisions about adult issues

Wd, apr 27, 2011

Sonya bell anD MeG WilCoX


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In the end, perhaps it was not that com-plicated.

For many observers, the rise o theNDP was the biggest surprise o the 2011

campaign. It raised many questions. Forstarters, how did the nations perennialalso-ran the ourth party o so manyParliaments manage to galvanie theelectorate?

Te NDPs rise in Quebec has beenbuilding progressively during the past de-cade since Jack Layton rst took control.Te maniesto craed in 2005 Qu-becs Voice and a Choice or a DiferentCanada pledged that the party wouldencourage support in the province by the

social democratic values o co-operation,recognition, equality, respect, eibility,transparency, and honesty.

It was a positive message directed at aprovince that had or decades sided witha separatist ederal party. Layton hit theroad to sell the message outside o Quebec.

Back to the beginning

On the rst day o the 2011 campaign, JackLayton gathered a medium-sied crowd osupporters to the Chateau Laurier in Ot-

tawa.On V screens, the NDP aithul

watched the prime minister eplain howan unnecessary election would jeop-ardie Canadian stability and saety awarning that would dene the narrative ohis campaign.

When Harper was done, Layton steppedup with a slightly diferent message. Ste-phen Harper sees co-operation as a weak-ness, he told the crowd. I view it as a veryCanadian strength.

Tere were questions about Laytons

own strength. He was living with cancerand just back rom hip surgery. Observerswanted to know i the vivacious campaign-er was up or the campaign. He spoke that

day with his arm tucked through the hal-circle loop o his by then-amiliar orearmcrutch. Shortly beore his surged in thepolls, he would graduate to a cane.

In the early days o the campaign, Laytonpushed aside questions about his health. Itwas business as usual, he insisted, thoughperhaps not or others.

Mr. Ignatiefs words dont match hisactions, Layton told the crowd on open-ing day. And hes betting you dont no-tice.

Just watch me, Layton seemed to be tell-ing the crowd.

Te peasants are restless

Political tides have shied during the pastyear or so. In Calgary and oronto, oreample, new mayors stand in contrast tothe cities they were elected to lead. Cana-dians have grown skeptical o politicians,political parties, and even o the system.

Going into an election campaign as anincumbent, you have to inoculate yoursel

against that anger or youll become the o-cus o that anger, says ormer NDP cam-paign director Robin Sears.

Sears says its a point that should haveoccurred to Stephen Harper.

You can run a ear-driven campaignand you have enormous credibility andyou have the agreed and obvious icon owhatever it is you think people should beearul o, Sears says. Unortunately orHarper, he is that icon to many people.

On Monday evening, the Conservativespulled of their majority.

As the results rolled in, it was clear NDPsuccess was not built on Conservative ail-ings, but rather something else. Te partys success in Quebec was almost total. In

crippling the Bloc, it succeeded in doingwhat some in Canada have been trying todo or years.

But how?

Layton perormed well in the debates. Ithelped that Ignatief did not. He appearedon out le monde en parle, a popular Que-bec television show, which gave him a ma-

jor bump in a province that had never re-ally considered him beore.

Te NDP plan or Quebec was part oit, but there was more. In an election tharom the beginning struggled or a tangible theme or narrative, more and more iwas to be about something else a choicebetween images.

Lewis H. Lapham once noted that inplace o an energetic politic, we substitutea renied spectacle. Te one attributethat can be known and seen comes tostand or all the other attributes that re-main invisible.

In a weird way, at their core, Harper and

Ignatief had the same message as LaytonTrough them, Canada could be a betterplace a country sett ing course or betterdays. A stronger nation. Only the messaging, the imaging, was diferent and Layton himsel no doubt played a part.

While Harper made the case or economic stewardship, his campaign wasbuilt on repeated warnings about the dan-ger lapping at Canadas shores. Harperasked or Conservative stability, but talkedabout the opposite.

For his part, Ignatief talked about Lib-

Behind theorange door?Opposition

leader JackLayton

u, M 3, 2011Colin HorGan


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eral stability, but asked instead or a crip-pled Conservative Party.

Layton, on the mend himsel, talkedabout stability and strength and deantlywaved his cane in the air.

Working it

On the second-to-last day Saturday o thecampaign, Layton appealed to a capacitycrowd in Montreal. Lets work together,

he urged almost a thousand people at theLOlympia theatre in downtown Montreal,the heart o Bloc leader Gilles Duceppesriding.

Lets roll up our sleeves and start thework right now!

Layton thanked the crowd, then glad-handed his admirers, the message o thecollective efort hung in the air.

It was an etension o his rst speechin March the one that scolded StephenHarper or not being open to co-operation.

It resonated with oronto student Giulia

Ciarelli.[Laytons] diferent policies and plat-

orms, its all people-ocused, she told iP-olitics on election day. Its very ocused onstarting rom the community and workingyour way up. And I guess i youre startingwith the community and you have some-one ghting or you at the top, too, some-where in between, youre going to meet.

During the campaign, it became lessabout what Layton was ghting against,and more about what he was ghting or.By the time he stepped of his podium in

Montreal, he was no longer acing ques-tions about his health or the sie o thecrowds.

Instead, Layton was responding to ques-tions about his partys platorm.

And as much as it showed the shi inmedia ocus, Layton was sprinting away.NDP popularity numbers jumped almostovernight.

At that point, questions about the nerpoints o the policy might not have mat-

tered, says Sears. By that time, he says, peo-ple are voting on the basis o characterand overall perception o the leader o theparty.

Tey dont care about individual policyitems, he says. Tat dissection or ananalysis process that you go through atthe ront end, not at the back end, he says.

On election day in a downtown orontocofee shop, at least one Liberal-turned-NDP supporter agreed.

Jack Laytons messages I always see arevery positive, he has a very warm persona,

said Allison Costa. Every time I see himin the public, he seems like a very person-able person.

In 2005, Layton promised to give Que-bec voters a voice. In 2011, he promised thesame to the rest o Canada.

Ten, Monday.

Orange Crush

As the projections began to jump on thebig screens at the Metro oronto Conven-tion Centre, the NDP aithul poured into

the epansive room, and cheered their newMPs as the seat count climbed higher.

By the time it was over, the NDP hadearned more than 100 seats.

Despite the NDPs success, the Conser vative numbers grew aster quickly. Watch-ing the numbers, the crowd remained hap-py but subdued. Te organiers pumpeddance music through the speakers at ul

volume, and New Democrats stood in bit-tersweet irony. Teir massive victory has

been tempered by Stephen Harpers rsmajority government.In the end, the Conservatives had man-

aged to win again.Ive always avoured proposition over

opposition, Layton told the crowd omore than 3,000 just aer midnight. Youcan count on New Democrats to bringpeople together across political divides,he said.

He listed the things or which Canadians voted on Monday: universal health carebetter pensions, and help to make ends

meet.For the most part, the crowd was respon-

sive to the victory that would have beencomplete i it werent or the almost.

I we stick together, there is no challengewe cannot overcome, Layton said. Tecrowd roared. Happy, at least, to nallyhave a voice.

Layton then quoted NDP stalwart om-my Douglas.

Dream no little dreams, he told thethrong, beore leaving the stage cane inone hand but almost at ull strength.


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21/22

In a whirlwind election campaign, therewas one thing Canadian voters couldcount on: Stephen Harpers choice o ap-parel. From Vancouver to Cape BretonIsland, the Conservative leader proudlysported his quilted lightweight eam Can-ada Olympic jacket.

Retail price: $100. Adding a patriot twistto his soened image: priceless.

Te jacket was this elections powderblue sweater vest and cuddly kitten rolled

into one patriotic slam-dunk, according toashion consultants.

I think hes hitting the right note, Ed-monton-based ashion consultant ShirleyBorrelli told iPolitics. We were all proudo the Olympics, whether we lived in west-ern Canada or eastern Canada.

I hes going aer the hockey vote, hesdoing very well, agreed Leah Morrigan,an image consultant in oronto. Hes oneo the guys.

Harper has been photographed in the jacket Easter egg hunting in Royal Oak,

B.C., serving udge in Sydney, N.S., and ty-ing a childs skates at an arena in St. Johns,NFLD. He also ipped it up at the North-western Ontario Sports Hall o Fame inTunder Bay, and at a Vancouver Canuckssporting goods store in Vancouver.

Te jacket is a great choice or these casu-al venues, Borrelli said. It sends a personaland patriotic message to voters.

I love it. I think it really warms him up.I think it helps him relate. And I think its

going to work in his avour, Borrelli said.Tis campaign, its all about being the

homegrown boy. Conservative Party adshave consistently targeted Michael Ignati-efs years abroad as a Harvard proessor asevidence that he is not committed to Can-ada. In the amous words o the attack ads:He didnt come back or you.

But Vancouver-based image special-ist Mihaela Ciocan warned Harper not tooveruse the Canada jacket.

For most situations during the cam-paign it is best to err on the conserva-

tive side with tailored and soly tailoredstyles, she said. Plus these styles are whatHarper appears most comortable in, andthat is essential because what eels besusually looks best.

Te Hudsons Bay Company introducedthe jacket ahead o the Olympics, and isold out in stores beore the Games endedIt was available on eBay or as little as $50by March 2010.

Nevertheless, the look is not outdated

Borrelli said. She speculated Harpers en-dorsement could drive up sales at HBCstores, where Olympic merchandise is stilor sale.

A newly created Facebook page asks: AreYou Getting ired o Tat Canada JacketYet? In its rst our days, it grew slowly to

just more than 50 likes.I doubt that in the wake o the historic

Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Gamespatriotic Canadians will turn their backson such a symbolic jacket or political rea-sons, Clocan said.

Tu, ap 28, 2011Sonya bell

Sweater vest+ cuddly kitten= Te eam

Harper jacket


22/22

@meghw: MEG WILCOxHarper: will go to GG tomorrow to ask ordissolution o Parliament. Says only pos-sible option. #ipca #cdnpoli

@OttawaReporter KAHLEEN HARRISPhotographers position to shoot Family

Photo o leaders politely shaking hands beore

they take the gloves of or debate #ipca #db8

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSONDuceppe congratulates Harper or answering

rst citiens question o the campaign. zinger.

#ipca #eln41

@emily_senger EMILY SENGERReads like April Fools Day story but its

real: French election debate date switched

because o Habs game http://bit.ly/g7UsN4

#ipca#eln41

@devonblackDEVON BLACK

Ill say it: this ormat sucks. No one reallywants to watch Iggy and Duceppe agree that

crime is bad. #ipcadb8

@devonblackDEVON BLACKIggys losing his temper on the democracy

issue. Is it enough to make Canadian voters

care? #debat

@devonblackDEVON BLACKHow do you cut at without cutting pro-

grams? Is Harper saying bureaucrats should

@so_bell SONYA BELLHow long does this go on or? Hys crowd

ready or the V to be turned down again.

#ipca #db8

@so_bell SONYA BELLGroup o committed debate watchers at Hys

shrinking. New arrivals not paying attention.

Is this the apathy we speak o? #ipca

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSONIgnatief says Harpers reluctance to do open

town halls etc also an Americaniation o Ca-

nadian politics. New narrative. #ipca #eln41

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSON

Interesting tactic by Harper. Let Ignatief and

Duceppe bicker then wades in asking peopleto imagine them trying to run minority govt

#ipca

@meghwMEG WILCOxOH: the calibre o the debate depends on

the calibre o the candidates... So its not too

surprising #ipca

@meghwMEG WILCOxMost o the people at this party are saying

the leaders are missing the major issues Its

@cforgan COLIN HORGANCanada is an island o stability says Harper.

And hey, the crowd loves it! #CPC #eln41

@cforgan COLIN HORGAN

Crowd wanted to boo at one point, as Jack

listed bad things happening in Ottawa, then

held of... Jack you can react. Boos ensued.

#eln41#ipca

@so_bell SONYA BELLMay gives a di greeting and speech at every

whistle-stop. I understand this isnt the way all

leaders do it. Dorval bound. #eln41#ipca

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSON@GeorgeTeCar Candidates or MP get lots

o eercise on the campaign trail but leaderstend to spend the day sitting in planes, buses,

cars.

@emily_senger EMILY SENGERA crying preschooler in ront o Harper proves

using humans as announcement backdrop can

go wrong: http://bit.ly/hAGUdY #ipca#eln41

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSONPoster girl or the Conservatives and the Bloc

doesnt actually support either Great sleuthing

Debate:

Coalition:

@Liz1 ELIzABEH HOMPSONwo Canadian PMs have tried to orm coali-

tions - MacDonald and Borden. Guess what

party they came rom? http://bit.ly/haCl

#eln41 #ipca

@cforgan COLIN HORGANi there were ever an argmnt or better elemen-

tary civics classes, this is it. wed understand

coalitions & avoid this silliness. #eln41

Leaders:

#Elxn41 in tweets

Parliament dissolves:

Documents

iPolitics Election in Review