InvestorsEye-Apr22_15

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Index

Stock Update >> Yes Bank

Stock Update >> Persistent Systems

2Sharekhan Home NextApril 22, 2015

Company details

Price chart

Shareholding pattern

Price performance

(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m

Absolute -5.8 -8.4 25.7 82.2

Relative -3.9 -4.5 20.4 47.6to Sensex

Yes Bank Reco: Buy

Stock Update

Growth momentum continues, asset quality stable CMP: Rs796

Price target: Rs930

Market cap: Rs33,241 cr

52 week high/low: Rs910/429

NSE volume: 27.1 lakh(no. of shares)

BSE code: 532648

NSE code: YESBANK

Sharekhan code: YESBANK

Free float: 32.6 cr(no. of shares)

Key points

Operating performance improves: For Q4FY2015, Yes Bank reported a stronggrowth in profits (up 28% YoY to Rs551 crore) contributed by a robust growth inthe net interest income (up 36% YoY). Advances growth remained strong (up36% YoY), while the net interest margin was stable at 3.2% QoQ. The CASA ratioimproved to 23.1% from 22.6% in Q3FY2015.

Asset quality stays healthy: The asset quality remained stable thoughrestructured loans (0.5% of advances vs 0.26% in Q3FY2015) increased inQ4FY2015. Provisions showed a jump of 75% YoY largely due to counter-cyclicalprovision of Rs50.7 crore (with a total counter-cyclical provision of Rs105 crorein FY2015). The management has guided for credit cost of 60-80BPS for FY2016.

Maintain Buy with PT of Rs930: Given the bank’s thrust on growth, we expectYes Bank to grow its advances by 23% CAGR over FY2015-17 resulting in a 22%growth in earnings. The bank is embarking on its version 3 phase which shouldresult in further improvement in qualitative parameters. We maintain our Buyrating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs930 (2.4x FY2017 BV).

Results Rs cr

Particulars Q4FY15 Q4FY14 YoY % Q3FY15 QoQ %Interest income 3,088.4 2,568.1 20.3 2,971.7 3.9Interest expense 2,111.3 1,848.5 14.2 2,062.6 2.4Net interest income 977.1 719.6 35.8 909.0 7.5Non-interest income 590.4 445.5 32.5 536.8 10.0Net total income 1,567.5 1,165.1 34.5 1,445.8 8.4Operating expenses 630.0 484.7 30.0 583.1 8.0

Employee expenses 261.9 203.8 28.5 254.1 3.1Other operating expenses 368.2 280.8 31.1 329.0 11.9

Pre-provisioning profit 937.5 680.4 37.8 862.7 8.7Provisions 126.4 72.3 74.8 69.9 80.9Profit before tax 811.1 608.1 33.4 792.9 2.3Tax 260.2 177.9 46.2 252.6 3.0Profit after tax 551.0 430.2 28.1 540.3 2.0Asset qualityGross NPAs 313.4 174.9 79.2 278.7 12.5

Gross NPAs (%) 0.41 0.31 10 BPS 0.42 -1 BPSNet NPAs 87.7 26.1 236.5 64.5 36.0

Net NPAs (%) 0.12 0.05 7 BPS 0.10 2 BPSCapital adequacy (%)CAR 15.60 14.40 120 BPS 16.70 -110 BPSTier I 11.50 9.80 170 BPS 11.90 -40 BPSKey reported ratios (%)NIM 3.20 3.00 20 BPS 3.20 0 BPSCASA 23.12 22.03 109 BPS 22.61 51 BPS

investor’s eye stock update


Strong growth in advances drives NII growth

Yes Bank’s net interest income (NII) for Q4FY2015 grewby 36% year on year (YoY) to Rs977 crore (higher than ourestimates) largely driven by a pick-up in advances growth(up 36% YoY). The incremental growth in advances mainlycame in from commercial banking (up 38% YoY) andbranch-banking activities (partly due to priority sectorrelated lending). The corporate banking which constitutes64.7 % of the book showed a growth of 39% YoY. We expectthe bank to sustain above industry growth (23%compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] over FY2015-17)over the next two years with an increase in proportion ofsmall and medium enterprises (SME) and retail loans.


Asset quality remains stable, restructured loans rise

The asset quality was largely maintained during thequarter as the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs)declined by 1BPS to 0.41 while net non-performing assets(NNPAs) were marginally up by 2BPS to 0.12 on a quarterlybasis. The bank has not sold any non-performing assets(NPAs) during the quarter. However, the restructured booksurged to Rs381 crore (0.5% of advances) from Rs170 crorein Q3FY2015 (but remains significantly low as comparedwith its peer banks). The overall asset quality still remainslargely stable. The provisions during the quarter surgedby 74% YoY mainly due to excess standard asset provision(counter-cyclical provision) of around Rs50.7 crore.

Asset quality

Break-up of non-interest income (Rs cr)

NIM (%)

Advances growth (%)

NIM remains stable and is likely to improve

The net interest margin (NIM) during Q4FY2015 remainedstable at 3.2% quarter on quarter (QoQ) despite a 15-20-basis point (BPS) drag due to liquidity coverage ratiorequirements. The cost of funds declined by 30BPS QoQwhich was largely offset by a 20-BPS quarter-on-quarter(Q-o-Q) drop in the yield on loans. The current accountand savings account (CASA) ratio showed an improvementof 51BPS QoQ to 23% led by a 35% year-on-year (Y-o-Y)growth in the savings deposits. The granularity of depositscontinues to improve as the share of retail depositsincreased to 48% from 42% YoY.

Non-interest income jumps up by 32%

The non-interest income surged by 32% YoY, mainly drivenby a 116% growth in the financial market income (includinga Rs21-crore gain on the bond book) and a strong 33.6%growth in the retail fee income. The transaction bankingand financial advisory which together constitute 62% ofthe non-interest income grew by 17% and 18% respectively.The cost to income ratio was stable at 40.2%.


Profit and loss statement Rs cr

Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net interest income 2,219 2,716 3,488 4,228 5,284

Non-interest income 1,257 1,722 2,046 2,568 3,144

Net total income 3,476 4,438 5,534 6,796 8,428

Operating expenses 1,335 1,750 2,285 2,840 3,356

Pre-provisioning profit 2,142 2,688 3,250 3,956 5,072

Provision & contingency 216 362 339 526 664

Profit before tax 1,926 2,326 2,910 3,429 4,408

Tax 625 709 905 1,091 1,403

Profit after tax 1,301 1,618 2,005 2,338 3,005

Balance sheet Rs cr

Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

LiabilitiesNetworth 5,808 7,122 11,680 13,524 15,893

Deposits 66,956 74,192 91,176 111,235 135,150

Borrowings 20,922 21,314 26,220 29,477 35,815

Other liabilities& provisions 5,419 6,388 7,094 5,799 6,882

Total liabilities 99,104 109,016 136,170 160,034 193,740AssetsCash & balanceswith RBI 3,339 4,542 5,241 5,339 6,014

Balances with banks& money at call 727 1,350 2,317 1,669 2,027

Investments 42,976 40,950 46,605 53,949 64,196

Advances 47,000 55,633 75,550 92,549 113,835

Fixed assets 230 293 319 367 422

Other assets 4,833 6,247 6,139 6,162 7,246

Total assets 99,104 109,016 136,170 160,034 193,740

Key ratios

Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17EPer share data (Rs)Earnings 36.3 44.9 48.0 56.0 71.9Dividend 6.0 8.0 9.0 10.1 12.9Book value 161.7 197.2 279.4 323.5 380.2Adj book value 161.5 196.5 272.5 316.0 371.3Spreads (%)Yield on advances 12.7 12.7 12.2 12.0 12.0Cost of deposits 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6Net interest margins 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1Operating ratios (%)Credit to deposit 70.2 75.0 82.9 83.2 84.2Cost to income 38.4 39.4 41.3 41.8 39.8CASA 18.9 22.0 23.1 25.0 27.3Non-interest income/total income 36.2 38.8 37.0 37.8 37.3Return ratios (%)RoE 24.8 25.0 21.3 18.6 20.4RoA 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7Assets/Equity (x) 16.5 16.1 13.0 11.8 12.0Asset quality ratios (%)Gross NPA 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6Net NPA 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3Growth ratios (%)Net interest income 37.3 22.4 28.4 21.2 25.0Pre-provisioning profit 39.1 25.5 20.9 21.7 28.2Profit after tax 33.1 24.4 24.0 16.6 28.5Advances 23.7 18.4 35.8 22.5 23.0Deposits 36.2 10.8 22.9 22.0 21.5Valuation ratios (x)P/E 21.9 17.7 16.6 14.2 11.1P/BV 4.9 4.0 2.8 2.5 2.1P/ABV 4.9 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.1Capital adequacy (%)CAR 18.3 14.4 14.6 16.3 15.5Tier I 9.5 9.8 11.4 10.9 10.2


Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

Capital raising on anvil

The bank has a Tier I capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of11.5% (total CAR of 15.6%) and the management expectsto sustain the same over the next 12-18 months. However,the bank’s board had approved a proposal to raise $1billion of capital in one or tranches via qualifiedinstitutional placement (QIP) or American depositoryreceipts (ADR) and may look to raise capital dependingupon suitable opportunities. The capital raising couldpotentially dilute the return ratios and may affect thestock’s performance.

Valuation and outlook

Given the management’s thrust on growth, we expectYes Bank to grow its advances by 23% CAGR over FY2015-17, resulting in a 22% growth in earnings. The bank isembarking on a version 3 phase which should result in

One-year forward P/BV band

further improvement in qualitative parameters. Wemaintain our Buy rating on the stock with an unchangedprice target of Rs930 (2.4x FY2017 book value).



Company details

Price chart

Shareholding pattern

Price performance

(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m

Absolute -3.3 -22.9 8.8 36.7

Relative -1.3 -19.6 4.2 10.8to Sensex

Persistent Systems Reco: Buy

Stock Update

In-line performance; Buy maintained with revised PT of Rs880 CMP: Rs718

Price target: Rs880

Market cap: Rs5,744 cr

52 week high/low: Rs961/444

NSE volume: 1.1 lakh(no. of shares)

BSE code: 533179

NSE code: PERSISTENT

Sharekhan code: PERSISTENT

Free float: 4.9 cr(no. of shares)

Key points

In-line performance, net income beats estimate led by lower tax rate: For Q4FY2015,Persistent Systems Ltd (PSL)’s performance was in line on both revenues and margin fronts.Led by lower tax rate and higher than expected other income, the net income was aheadof estimates. The revenues in terms of dollar were up by 0.6% QoQ to $80 million. The ITservices’ revenues were up by 1.7% QoQ to $65.5 million (led by 0.7% volume and 1%improvement in realisation), while the IP-led revenues were down by 4% QoQ. The EBITDAmargin remained stable QoQ at 20.2%. The company’s other income for the quarter wasup by 13% QoQ to Rs13 crore and foreign exchange gains were at Rs5 crore against a profitof Rs13 crore in Q3FY2015. The tax rate has declined to 20.6% as compared with 25.1% inQ3FY2015, attributed to a tax break in the loss-making US subsidiary. The net income forthe quarter was up by 2.2% QoQ to Rs76 crore.

Enterprise story playing out well, concerns persist on ISV side: PSL’s enterprise digitaltransformation (EDT) story is playing out well and has already registered a few goodwins in the recent quarters. Also, the revenues from the enterprise side have graduallyincreased from 19.7% in Q1FY2015 to 24% in Q4FY2015 (34.7% CAGR). The managementremains confident in delivering a strong growth on the enterprise side in FY2016. Whereas,ISVs (57.8% of the revenues) continue to remain under pressure owing to change inbusiness preference in the clients’ accounts. PSL’s revenues from top-clients’ were downby 4.4% CAGR in the last four quarters. Overall, the management remains optimisticabout delivering a better growth in FY2016 as compared with FY2015, led by animprovement in the overall deals funnel and traction in the enterprise side. Also,acquisitions in the IP space will aid to the overall revenues trajectory.

Attractive risk-reward ratio, maintain buy with a revised price target of Rs880: Wehave lowered our earnings estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 by 4.3% and 7.0% respectively,attributed to a change in the revenues and margins estimates. We have also reset ourcurrency estimates to Rs62 and Rs61 for FY2016 and FY2017 respectively. Nevertheless,given PSL being a pure play on the digital spend, strong balance sheet (cash of Rs816crore at 46% of the balance sheet size) and good corporate governance still make it agood investment bet for the long-term investors. In the last three months, the stock ofPSL has corrected around 21% which offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. We maintainour Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs880.

Results Rs cr

Particulars Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15 YoY % QoQ %Revenues ($ mn) 80.0 72.6 79.5 10.2 0.6Derived exch rate (Rs/$) 62.2 61.5 62.2 1.1 -0.1Net sales 497.5 446.7 494.6 11.4 0.6Direct costs 297.5 255.4 295.9 16.5 0.5SG&A 99.5 70.7 99.2 40.7 0.3EBITDA 100.5 120.7 99.5 -16.7 1.0Depreciation & amortisation 22.7 26.4 24.6 -14.0 -7.8EBIT 77.8 94.2 74.9 -17.5 3.8Forex gain/(loss) 5.1 -8.7 13.0 NA -61.1Other income 13.0 6.8 11.5 92.5 13.2PBT 95.82 92.3 99.4 3.8 -3.6Tax provision 19.8 25.1 24.9 -21.3 -20.6PAT 76.1 67.2 74.5 13.2 2.1Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0Net profit 76.1 67.2 74.5 13.2 2.1Equity capital (FV Rs10/-) 80.0 80.0 80.0EPS (Rs) 9.5 8.4 9.3 13.2 2.1Margin (%)EBITDA 20.2 27.0 20.1 -8EBIT 15.6 21.1 15.1NPM 15.3 15.0 15.1Tax rate 20.6 27.2 25.1



Valuations

Particulars FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net sales (Rs cr) 1,669.2 1,891.3 2,185.6 2,538.7

Net profit (Rs cr) 249.3 290.6 331.3 390.0

EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 20.7 20.9 21.8

EPS (Rs) 31.2 36.3 41.4 48.7

Y-o-Y change % 32.8% 16.6% 14.0% 17.7%

PER 23.1 19.8 17.4 14.8

EV/EBITDA 12.2 12.9 10.5 8.1

Price/BV 2.4 4.0 3.4 2.9

RoCE (%) 29.2 28.6 28.6 28.7

RoE (%) 22.3 21.8 21.1 21.1

Other result highlights

• The cash and cash equivalents for the company stoodat Rs816.5 crore as against Rs816.6 crore reported inQ3FY2015.

Operating metrics

Particulars Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15 YoY % QoQ %

Geography

North Americas (%) 85.4 85.4 84.7 10.2 1.5

$ mn 68.3 62.0 67.4

Europe (%) 6.8 6.1 7.1 22.8 -3.6

$ mn 5.4 4.4 5.6

RoW (%) 7.8 8.5 8.2 1.1 -4.3

$ mn 6.2 6.2 6.5

Industry verticals*

ISV (%) 57.8 57.9 NA 0.5

$ mn 46.3 46.0

Enterprise (%) 24.1 23.1 NA 5.0

$ mn 19.3 18.4

IP Led (%) 18.1 19.6 19.0 1.7 -4.1

$ mn 14.5 14.2 15.1

Mix

Onsite (%) 26.2 21.4 25.1 34.9 5.1

$ mn 21.0 15.5 20.0

Offshore (%) 55.7 59.0 55.9 4.0 0.3

$ mn 44.6 42.9 44.5

The business from Europe declined by 3.6% QoQ owing to

cross-currency headwinds.

Remarks

Cont...

• The company had hedges worth $130 million at therate of Rs65.61.

• The days sales outstanding (DSO) days decreased byone day quarter on quarter (QoQ) at 64 days.

• The company added 210 people sequentially on a netbasis during the quarter taking the total headcount to8,506 employees. The company’s technical workforceincreased by 197 people to 7,861 employees whereasthe sales and business development employeesincreased by 16 people to 224 employees.

• Attrition for the quarter was up to 15.5% as comparedwith 14.7% in Q3FY2015. The utilisation ratio (blended)increased by 40 basis points (BPS) to 74.7% for the quarter.

• The capital expenditure for FY2016 is expected to beabout Rs100 crore.

The enterprise vertical grew by 5.0% QoQ. It is expected to

remain strong in FY2016.

This is the fifth consecutive quarter of a shift in the business

mix towards onsite delivery.



Operating metrics

Particulars Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15 YoY % QoQ %

Clients contribution

Top clients (%) 16.5 21.1 17.5 -13.8 -5.1

$ mn 13.2 15.3 13.9

Top 5 clients (%) 34.1 39.4 35.0 -4.6 -1.9

$ mn 27.3 28.6 27.8

Top 10 clients (%) 43.2 48.5 44.2 -1.9 -1.6

$ mn 34.6 35.2 35.1

Other than Top 10 clients (%) 56.8 51.5 55.8 21.5 2.4

$ mn 45.5 37.4 44.4

Headcount 8506 7857 8296 649 210

Attrition (%) 15.5 13.4 14.7

Utilisation 74.7 69.2 74.3

DSO 64 63 65

*Industry classification disclosure started from Q4FY2015.

The revenues from the top clients were down by 5% QoQ

owing to a change in business preference.

Remarks

The company made net addition of 210 employees during

the quarter, taking the total headcount to 8,506 employees.

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.


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