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INVESTOR UPDATE
July 2019
2
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
48.05%
7.93%
12.07%
31.94%Others
Introduction to IRPCIntegrated Petrochemical Complex
3
Shareholding Structure*
PTT secures 100% crude procurement for IRPC at the market price
Receive 60 days credit term from PTT
Petroleum Product off-take and swap agreement with PTT group on arm-length basis
Strong support of credit facilities from PTT thruIntercompany Borrowing & Lending (ICBL)program
IRPC are under umbrella of PTT group’s centraltreasury management framework
PTT
Crude Procurement &
Credit Term
Product Swaps and Off-takes
Financial and Risk Control
Systems
Operational & Strategic Relationships with PTT Group
Complex & Facilities
*Note: as of Feb 2019
• Integrated petrochemical complex: Upstream to downstream in a single complex
• Locate in Industrial Area: Eastern Seaboard Area of Thailand, 200 km. from Bangkok and 30 km. from Map Ta Phut Industrial Area
• Facility Support:- Deepest sea port- Tank Farm and Power Plant- Thailand’s main coastal highway
Market Cap. : 102,172 MB (as of June 28, 2019)
Credit Rating
BB+Positive Outlook
Ba1Positive Outlook
A(tha)Stable Outlook
Thai NVDR
Foreign
4
Petroleum and Petrochemical Capacity
Petroleum PetrochemicalIRPC Core Business
Deep Sea PortUtilities5 Depots,
307 MW Power plant
Facilities & Utilities
Refinery• LPG• Naphtha• Gasoline• Diesel• Fuel Oil
Lube Base• Lube Base Oil• Asphalt
Olefins• Ethylene• Propylene• Butadiene
Aromatics• Benzene• Toluene• Mixed Xylene
Styrenics• EBSM
Polyolefins• HDPE• PP
Polystyrenics• ABS• PS• EPS
Petrochemical Capacity• Monomer 1,848 KTA• Polymer 1,267 KTA
3,115 KTA
Crude Refining Capacity
215 KBD
Freehold Land4,750 Acres
(~12,000 Rais)
1,221
367
915
352
920
215
Unit: KTAUnit: KBD
Unit: KTA260
5
IRPC’s Profile
Refinery Capacity : 215 KBD (crude distillation unit)
Petrochemical Capacity : 3,115 KTA (Olefins, Aromatics, Styrenics,
Polyolefins, Polystyrenics)
1
PP 3rd largest in South-East Asia: 775 KTA
HDPE pipe grade 140 KTA
ABS 179 KTA: The Largest producer in Thailand
2
Lube base oil : 320 KTA
Asphalt : 600 KTA
3
51% of specialty petrochemical portfolio
PPC to add more specialty Petrochemical Products
Specialty : 10-20% higher margin vs Commodity
5
Integrated
Petrochemical Complex &
Product Diversification
Remarkable Position
in ASEAN
Polymer Market
The largest lube base oil capacity
in Thailand
Power & Utility business : ~ 1.0 $/bbl to GIM
Additional contribution from utility JV starting from 2018
Stable income from Port and Tank business
4 Sustained earnings
from facility
and utility businesses
Specialty Petrochemical
to capture
higher margin
6
Petroleum and Petrochemical Value Chain Optimized Configuration & Product Diversification
Olefins Plant PropyleneEthyleneAcetylene Butadiene
180 KTA360 KTA6 KTA56 KTA
Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO)
PP
PS
ABS/SAN
EPS
CCM
Acetylene Black
HDPEEthylene
Acetylene
Propylene
Benzene
TolueneMixed Xylene
Butadiene
CD1
Ethylene
EBSM
4 KTA
140 KTA
775 KTA
Ethylene Rich Gas
DCC
Propylene 132 KTA
ADU1 65 KBD
ADU2 150 KBD
215 KBD
Naphtha
Reformate
UHV
Ethylene Propylene 320 KTA
73 KTA
Lube BaseLube Base Oil Asphalt
320 KTA600 KTA
BTX Benzene TolueneMixed Xylene
114 KTA132 KTA121 KTA 31 KTA
57 KTA
179 KTA
125 KTA
48 KTA
260 KTAStyrene Monomer
Acrylonitrile
Feed (Crude Oil / Condensate)Transportation FuelDiesel
Jet
Gasoline
PRP
HS ATB
Propylene 100 KTA
Pyrolysis Gasoline Raffinate
Styrene Monomer
LS ATB
63% 15% 8% 14%
Crude/Condensate Portfolio
Middle east Far east Domestic Others
For sale
HS ATB
7
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
32.05
31.6431.44
31.49
32.15
32.64
33.44
33.2032.80 32.94
33.14
32.87
31.98
31.47
31.89
30
31
32
33
34
35
69.2
65.2 65.9
71.8
76.9
74.3 74.3 72.6
78.9
81.2
64.7
57.4 59.5
64.0 66.1
66.2
62.7 62.7
68.3
74.4 73.6 73.1 72.5
77.2
79.4
65.6
57.3 59.1
64.6
66.9
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Brent Dubai
Key DriversIncreasing crude oil price from year end led to net stock gain VS low products spread
8
Dubai Crude Oil Price (avg.)
Gross Refining Margin (GRM)
Foreign Exchange (avg.)
Product to Feed Margin (PTF)
Unit: $/bbl Unit : THB/USD
5.4 5.9
1.9
1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
7.6 7.1
5.7
1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Unit: $/bbl Unit: $/bblYoY 65%
QoQ 68%
YoY 25%
QoQ 20%
31.71 32.09 33.15 32.98 31.78
QoQ 6%
YoY 1%
QoQ appreciated 4%
YoY depreciated 0.2%
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Brent (Avg) 66.8 74.4 75.3 67.8 63.2
Dubai (Avg) 63.9 72.1 74.3 67.4 63.5
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19
41.353.2
69.4 63.9 67.4 63.5
9
Key Performance
17,430 20,420 18,344
5,389
534 2,355
Net Sales (net excise tax)
Unit: MB
EBITDAUnit: MB
Performance by Business
Net ProfitUnit: MB
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities & Others
Net Sales(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)Unit: $/bbl
168,349 197,594
258,919
60,488 64,233 54,274
Crude Run (KBD) 180 208183
EBITDA
Net Profit
Market GIM ($/bbl) 13.0
Acct. GIM ($/bbl) 12.8 15.5
14.5
Net Stock G/(L)($/bbl) (0.2) 1.0
2018 : Maintained high operating income from higher U-Rate despite crude premium increased
1Q19 : Better performance as higher net stock gain VS weaken products spread
213 208 200
YoY 32%
YoY 10%
YoY 31%
13.1
(0.5)
13.6 14.1
6.6
(7.5)
Operating NINet Income
14.1
14.4
0.3
8.7
1.3
9.9
QoQ 16%
YoY 10%
QoQ 341%
YoY 56%
YoY 94%
QoQ 109%
8,750 8,621 8,859
2,566 2,351
(650)
9,721 11,354
7,735
2,752
(1,627)
153
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
(345%)
384%
62%
1Q19
25%
54%
21%
70%
29%
1%
54,274MB
2,355MB
153MB
-1,627 132
3,846
873
357
118
306 1,048
720 83
3,554
141
752
78141 434
-650
2,351
153
Operating Net Income: 4Q18 vs 1Q19According to lower spread & RDCC planned shutdown led to lower operating income
10
Uncontrolled Controlled
Operating Income 128%
Net Income 109% (1,627) 153
2,351 (650)
Unit: MB
Net Income1Q19
(effective Tax rate = 0%)
Net Income 4Q18
(effective tax rate = 19%)
Volume DecreaseMargin
Decrease
Income Tax
Credit Decrease
OPEX +Selling Exp.
Others(Depre/FX loan/
Take quity)
Stock Loss& Hedging
+LCM
FX. Effect
NonOperating
Items
Operating Income 4Q18
NonOperating
Items
Operating Income 1Q9
Crude Premium
Stock Loss& Hedging
+LCM
Fuel Loss & Internal
UsedControllable
UHV+PPE+PPC
Everest + E4E
Fuel Loss & Internal
Used(Exl. UHV)
(1,627)
(650)
1Q19 Actual
Everest+E4E Project Highlight 1Q19: Everest+E4E contributed 21% of plan
Key Area
EverestEverestEverest
Unit : MB of EBIT
2019 (Plan)
2018 Actual
Operations Area
Commercial Area
Integrated Supply Chain
Procurement Area
Corporate Area - HR
Corporate Area – Non HR$
11
Total Everest
Total Everest + E4E
4,276 892 4,441
1,821 425 2,455
1,444 544 1,822
31 14 -
397 65 406
1 - -
7,970 1,940 9,124
1,397 463 2,085
9,367 2,403 11,209
Everest Forever (E4E)
21% of Plan
12
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
13
UHV project : Major CAPEXImprove product yield and earnings
IRPC’s refined Production Yield
Upstream project for Hygiene & Value-added Products
Objective : Upgrade low value to high valued-added products
Investment : $ 1.1 bn
COD : Jul. 2016
Benefit : GIM 1.5-2.0 $/ bblAssumption : Spread propylene to FO ~ 500-600 $/ton
RDCC unit Feed Cut-in
@ Jun 16 COD @ Jul 16
HYVAHL unit Feed Cut-in
HS-ATB @ Jul 16 COD @ Jul 16
Performance Guarantee Test RDCC run 100%
@ Oct 2016
Plant Acceptance
(PAC)
Jan 2017
43%
80%
99%
2016A 2017A 2018A
Upgrade to High Valued-Added products
131
123
163
367
220
326
74
HSFO
LPG
Ethylene
HYVAHL
Propylene
Naphtha
FO/FG
Middle Distillates
RDCC
C4 Raffinate III
Internal use & Loss
Unit : KTA
16%
5%
23%
9%
9%
26%
12%
Flow Diagram
LSFO
UHV
Designed Yield
23%8% 11%
4% 4%
14%
10%
15%
12% 11%
40%
38%
45%
47% 47%
5%
10%
8%
9% 12%
16%
21%
16%18% 16%
2%
5%3% 5% 5%6%1% 4% 4%
2% 1% 1%
IRPC IRPC+UHV IRPC2015A
IRPC2017A
IRPC2018A
Ethylene
Propylene
LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Diesel/JetFuelLube Oil
Fuel Oil
Designed Yield
Top polypropylene producers in south-east Asia
2016 2017 2018 2019
ExxonMobil Singapore 860 860 860 860
HMC Polymers Thailand 810 810 810 810
IRPC Thailand 475 775 775 775
TPP Thailand 720 720 720 720
Lotte Chem. (M) Malaysia 373 373 373 640
TPC Singapore 625 625 625 625
Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 480 480 480 510
Pengerang PC Malaysia - - - 488
Nghi Son Viet Nam - 185 370 400
Polytama Indonesia 386 386 386 386
JG Summit PC Philippines 185 185 185 185
Unit : KTA
14
PPE&PPC Benefit EnhancementFulfill UHV benefits thru higher margin on PPE & PPC
Random PP• Pipe grade• Hygiene
Super Clear PP• Container box• Medical Device
Block-CO PP• Household Material• Heavy-duty
HOMO PP• Film application• Fiber grade
PP Specialty•Frozen food packaging•Lamination•Health care
PP Compound• Automotive:
pumper, instrument panel, etc
PPE 160 KTA PPC 140 KTA
Total PP 775 KTA in 2017
PP Existing 475 KTA
PP Expansion and PP Compound Project
CompoundingHouse
PP inline compound
Lower cost : PPC production by Inline process technology
Note: Cost Saving • No Packing & Logistic• No 2nd Extruder Process
PP Marketing Strategy : Sales Plan
Y2017
Volume: 600 Ktons
Y2022
Volume: 760 Ktons
PP Expansion Project (PPE) Licensor : Novolen Capacity : 160 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler, EPC : Sinopec
• CAPEX : $ 236 mn• GIM 0.8-1.0 $/bbl• COD : 4Q17
Source : IHS 2019
Random PP4%
Homo PP75%
Block-CO PP
21%
PP Compound11%
Random PP10%
Homo PP58%
Block-CO PP21%
PP Compound & Specialties (PPC) Licensor : JPP Capacity : 140 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler EPC : Sinopec
Project UpdateGasoline Max. : Better than target, Cat. Cooler construction on schedule
15
Gasoline Maximization Project UHV Catalyst Cooler in RDCC plant
CAPEX : 724 MB
IRR : ~ 80%
Benefit : GIM: 0.4$/bbl
COD : Nov.2017
Results:
Gasoline volume increase 40 mn liters per month, higher than target of 25 mn liters
RDCC Plant
ERU
PRU Unit
PNU Unit
Prime G Unit
Ne
w c
olu
mn
GasolineBlending Pool
~ 25 M.Litres/month
C2’s
C3’s
C4’s
Naphtha
Modification
Modification
Poly-gasoline (C8’s)20 t/hr. to gasoline pool
Heavy Oligomerate (C12+’s)5 t/hr. to RDCC
HCN (benzene <0.5 volume%) 27 t/h Gasoline pool
Benzene rich cut 8 t/h
LCN
ERU – Ethylene Recovery Unit PRU – Propane-Propylene Splitting Unit PNU – Naphtha Oligomer Unit Prime G – Naphtha Hydro-treating Unit
CAPEX : ~ 1,320 MB
IRR : ~ 35%
Benefit : GIM: 0.3$/bblConstruction Progress : 99% (As of May 19)
MC Complete in the beginning of June 2019
Progress : Commissioning test run
COD : May 2019 (Phase I-Catalyst Cooler)
COD : July 2019 (Phase II-Generator)
Project Objective : Crude selection more heavy crude More electricity & steam
Gasoline Max. Project
16
Project Update : Benefit Tracking
2017 2019
UHV Project Catalyst Cooler Project
0Benefit to GIMUnit: $ per bbl
UHV2017: 1.35 $/bbl2018: 1.51 $/bbl2019F: 1.70 $/bbl
PP compound & specialties (PPC)
PP Expansion Project (PPE)
Catalyst Cooler
UHV value added
Flexibility of crude selection
Utility from cracking
heavy crude molecule
CAPEX : ~ 1,320 MB
COD : ~ May 2019
GIM 0.3$/bbl
Increase UHV benefit Maximize Gasoline Yield Reduce Thailand import CAPEX : 724 MB Capacity: 40 mn litre/month
GIM 0.4$/bbl
Gasoline Maximization
COD : Nov. 17
PP Compound
Capacity: 140 KTA
CAPEX : 5,323 MB
GIM 0.4$/bbl
COD : Sept. 2017
Capacity:160 KTA
CAPEX : 3,248 MB
GIM 0.4$/bbl
PP expansion
COD : Dec . 2017
PPE 2017: 0.13 $/bbl 2018: 0.43 $/bbl2019F: 0.22 $/bbl
PPC2017: -2018: 0.18 $/bbl2019F: 0.17 $/bbl
Cat. Cooler2018: -2019F: 0.3 $/bbl
MC : Feb 19COD Plan : End 1Q19
UHV & UHV value added &
PPE & PPC
Total Benefit to GIM: $/bbl
2017: 1.54$
2018: 2.56$
2019F: 2.79$
Upgrade low value to high value-added products 2016 U-Rate: 43% CAPEX : ~ $ 1.1 bn
GIM 1.5-2.0 $/bbl
UHV
COD : Jul. 16
Gas Max. 2017: 0.06 $/bbl2018: 0.44 $/bbl2019F: 0.40 $/bbl
2016
17
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
18
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020Power of Growth, Power of Digital & Power of People: “GDP”
Power of GrowthG
Power of DigitalD
Power of PeopleP
Incremental Margin and Organization Health
Capability Building Owner mindset & Performance
Orientation Cultural Changes
Propylene (UHV)
412 KTA 732 KTA
Capacity Before After
PP(PPE&PPC)
475 KTA 775 KTA
Capacity Before After
Fully Integrated PP
Margin Improvement
Operational Excellence Commercial Excellence Procurement & HR Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
Other Projects Completion
Operational Efficiency Improvement Asset Utilization Enhancement Product and Service Improvement Capacity and Products Expansion
CHP I• Electricity• SteamPRPEBSM
108 MW200 T/hr312 KTA200 KTA
307 MW664 T/hr412 KTA260 KTA
Capacity Before After
BIG
Revenue Growth : 5%EBITDA Growth : 10%
1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum
and Petrochemical Industry
STRONG LONG
Member of DJSI Emerging
Markets Universe
2020ROIC 14%
2018
2014
2010
2016
19
GDP: From Aspiration to Execution
Power Three : 3 Pillars for achieve Top Quartile in 2020
Power of Digital
Power of People
Truly embedand live the IRPC DNA
Develop next generation of
Top 30 leaders
Continue to establish lean, fit-for-purpose organization
P
Power of Growth Maximum
aromatics for competitiveness
Growth byM&A
Everest forever for sustainable
growth
Drive R&D excellence
G
100MUSD
100MUSD
OPS 4.0Smart
Operation (AI)
ISC 4.0Integrated
Supply Chain
CCM 4.0Customer
Centric Digital
ERP 4.0ERP
Transformation
PRO 4.0Lean
procurement
100MUSD
D
MARS - Maximum Aromatics
Reformer Benzene
300-500 KTA
Paraxylene
1,000-1,300 KTA
Naphtha PX
Project:
Aromatic
Complex
Internal use
& Export
Export
Naphtha
Treating
unitHCN
Toluene, Xylene, HA
Internal use
& Export
Other Products: LPG, Raffinate, Raw
Hydrogen, Fuel Gas
200 KTA
CAPEX: $1.1 bn - $1.3 bn IRR 14%-16%
Petrochemical Yield 17% Existing + UHV
Petrochemical Yield 27% >>
Key Rational
• Utilize excess Naphtha
/Toluene/Xylene as feedstock to
maximize PX and BZ products
• Cost competitiveness
thru new technology
• Affirmed PX demand growth:
CAGR: 4% - 5%
G
Maximum Aromatics Project : MARSTo increase Petrochemical Yield
COD:1Q23
Feasibility study and Technology selection
Basic Engineer Design Package/FEED
Construction
202320192017 20202018
EPC
BOD acknowledged on project economics
Early 2019 BOD final approval on EPC Bidding by mid 2019
20
21
E4E : Initiatives projectCapture more benefit thru LSFO project
CAPEX : ~3MUSD (modify pipeline)
Production : ~ 40-80 KT per month
Margin improved : ~ 0.45$/bbl or
~40 MUSD per year
MC : End of May 19
COD : 3Q19
Targeted Year : Y2020 & Y2021
Price Assumption to Study IMO effect.Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Project
ADU
VDU
RDCC
Hyvahlin UHV
DCC
SEU/ PDU
DAU/ ABU Asphalt
Extract
VR
Asphaltene
LCO + DO
LCO
ETP PGO
LS-FO
LCO
Sell
G
22
M&A under “Galaxy” projectFocus in Petrochemical Industry
Petrochemical and/ or related petrochemical business with synergy value
Why Galaxy :• Align with aspiration: “Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex in Asia by 2020”
• Growth Ambition: Invest to deliver targeted EBITDA of $100-200 Million
• Expeditious success
G
23
M&A under “Galaxy” projectInvestment in plastic product E-commerce business
Company: Guangzhao Saiju Performance Polymer Ltd (GZSJ), China
Business: E-commerce platform for variety of plastic products under “IPLAS” platform
Website: www.isuwang.com & www.suwen8.com
Investment size: ~ 650 MB
E-commerce Platform – in China
Provide market place for supplier and buyer focusing in SME
Service logistic as option for buyers and be included in prices
Service credit term thru interest charged in prices
Provide Technical service solution by the experts
E-commerce Platform : one stop service provider
Company: iPolymer Company Limited
Business: E-commerce platform in Thailand focusing in plastic and chemical products
Investment size: ~ 120 MB
E-commerce Platform – in Thailand
1
New market and distribution
Big data analyticLeverage know-how
Benefit
GZSJ15%
45%
55%
iPolymer Ltd.
Shareholding Structure
1
2
(IPLAS Platform)
Founder & Others
85%
2
G
24
Power of GrowthABS Expansion: Increasing ABS specialty by 6,000 MTA
Flow DiagramABS Expansion
CompoundingFlocculation
& DryingPolymerization
Project Objective : Increase 6,000 MTA of Specialty
ABS Powder.
Recovery Vapor Butadiene 278 MTA from Flare.
CAPEX : ~ 430 MB
IRR : ~ 17%
Styrene
Butadiene
ACN
Change production technology from conventional emulsion to agglomeration to reduce polymerization time
ABS Pellet
Project Timeline
Acrylonitrile (ACN)
Butadiene Styrene
ABS
Chemical resistance Heat stability Tensile strengthAging resistance
ToughnessImpact strengthLow temperature properties
GlossProcessibilityRigidity
Award EPC
BOD Approval
EPC construction
1Q19
2019 2020
2Q19 2Q20
COD
G
ABS Powder
+6,000 MTA
Power of GrowthFloating Solar Power Project with Electricity 12.5 MW
25
Description
Project Objective :
To produce electricity 12.5 MW
Floating Support material from own HDPE
BOI Privilege
Timeline
Award EPC
BOD Approval
Engineering Procurement and Construction
1Q19
2019 2020
2Q19 2Q20
COD
GArea : Reservoir in Industrial Park
Usage : Internal use at PP Plant
CAPEX : ~ 550 MB
IRR : ~ 17%
1Q20
MC
IRPC 4.0 Developing implementation plan through IRPC supply chain
26
O3 - Utility demand forecasting
O2 - Mass balance reconciliation system
E1 - SAP revisit
I3 - Control tower decision making
O4-O5Rotating Machine PM
O1 - EKON$
P1 - Spend cube analytics
/ SRM
I1 - Crude selection
SupplyProduction/
operationDistribution Customer
Market/Competitor
Digital Organization Data Lake
Robust ERPBackbone
Secured Technology
Agile Way of Work
Collaboration platform
with cross function
team
P2 - Advance material mgmt.
C4 - End-to-end CRM
C1 - Advanced pricing algorithm C6 - Market &
competitors intelligence
C3 - Big data analytics to predict demand
E2 - Tech functionE3a - Data governance /
Reporting & big data analytics
I2 - Collaborative asset tech. platform
P3 - Demand planning (non-HC)
C5 - B2B portal
P4 - Process workflow re-design
C2 - Customer industry platform
O6 - Catalyst lifecycle prediction
O10 - Maintenance advanced scheduler
O8 - Crude blending optimization
O12 - Smart operator app & wearable safety
device
D
81
Digital leader
27
2 510
6
15
6
10
2429
58
3
2018
> 100
2019 2020
50
11.5
PRO 4.0
OPS 4.0
CCM 4.0
ERP 4.0
ISC 4.0
Unit: MUSD
19 initiatives
to be launched in Y2018
Target
Strategic Initiative – IRPC 4.0To reach 100 MUSD benefit within 2 years
24
Digital passive
DAI: Digital Assessment Index >>
‘Improve DAI to be digital leader’
D
IRPC 4.0 : €KON$Online monitoring economics platform
28
Economics visualized real-time in the control room
Management reports on performance against targets
Globally accessible web platform for all IRPC
Objectives:
Margin improvement through real-time
understanding of economic implications
Optimized trade-off decisions across operational
parameters and closer tracking of targets
Benefit : ~ 30 M$/year
Timeline : May 2018 – May 2019
1st Wave: Basic Refinery ~ 5 months (11 Units)
2nd Wave: Basic Petrochemical & Specialist ~ 4 months
(13 Units)
3rd Wave: Derivative Petrochemical ~ 4 months
(13 Units)
A tool optimizes key economics through refinery &
petrochemical operations
D
Improve LP model by using AI to maximize yields
Inventory optimization
Minimize products giveaways
Potential additional initiatives
Key Features
Power of PeopleIRPC New DNA
29
Individual Ownership
Result-Oriented
Promise and Deliver
Continuous Improvement
Do Things Together
No Bias
Actively Solve The Problem
Following orders
Process-oriented
Promise but delay
Business as usual
Silo-based
Biased reward
Too many
commentators
P
30
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
+ The U.S. to end waivers on import of Iranian oil.+ The U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's crude.- OPEC & non-OPEC may decide to gradually ease crude oil supply- High U.S. crude oil production remained at a record of 12.3 M.bbl/d in April.
+ Global refinery turnaround season to reduce overall refined product supply+ Peak demand in U.S. ahead of driving season- Gasoline stocks in the Atlantic Basin are on the high side (primarily in the U.S.)- Lower import from Vietnam after Nghi Son reach full capacity
+ Global refinery turnaround season support gas oil price+ Healthy Asia Pacific demand driven by agricultural sector+ Strong Demand in preparation for the IMO implementation - Higher Chinese export quotas
+ Higher demand for power generation during summer in Middle East.- Demand in Japan may fall as nuclear plants are planned to start-up in 1H19- Less bunker oil demand due to specification change by IMO .
+ Higher project demand growth+ Seasonal peak period amid optimal weather condition for laying of pipes- PE pipe natural move USA flow to SEA as a result of trade war- Slow demand in SEA due to Ramadan in May-June
+ Peak Turnaround during Apr.-May+ Chinese manufacturing season in Q3+ New capacity from Malaysia plant delayed start up- Slow demand in SEA due to Ramadan in May-June
+ The manufacturers of Personal Electronics and Office Automation in Asiahave return to the market.+ VAT reduction will improve China domestic demand- Trade war impact export of Electronics and Electrical and Toys
ULG 95
FO
Driving Determinants : Petrochemical
Crude Oil
ULG 95
GAS Oil
ABS
FO
PP
HDPE (Pipe)
PS
Key ProductsPrice (1Q19)
Spread(1Q19)
Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl)
Dubai 63.5
ULG 95 67.2 3.7
Gas Oil 76.3 12.8
FO 64.1 0.6
Polymer ($/T) ($/T)
PP 1,130 611
HDPE (Pipe) 1,190 671
PS 1,307 788
ABS 1,519 1,000
2Q-3Q Market OutlookDriving Determinants : Petroleum
+ VAT reduction starting 1Apr, will boost Chinese economy.+ Manufacturing season for air-conditioner and refrigerator- Packaging demand slowdown from alternative and environmental concerns
31
Crude Oil Outlook
32
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast (65 – 73 $/bbl)World oil production and consumption balance
Global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million b/d in 2019 EIA revises its crude oil price forecast upward as supply expectations change
U.S. Crude & OPEC’s Crude OPEC+ reach its target of production cut by 1.8 MBD
(150%) in May. 2019
Surging U.S. crude oil production will offset OPEC's output cuts Led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kuwait
Source : Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration Source : Bloomberg, June 2019
Petrochemical OutlookPolypropylene: Market return to balance
33
PP world operation rates return to balance FCC splitter : The lowest cost of propylene production
Addition capacity leading by China aim to reduce importPP demand growth stays healthy above world GDP
Source : 2019 IHS Markit
Petrochemical OutlookHDPE : Utilization rate reach the highest level in 2019
34
Surplus Polyethlyene after 2019
China drives global Polyethylene demand growth
HDPE operating rate hit the highest level in 2019
Global PE demand growth stays above average growth
Source : 2019 IHS Markit
Nort
heast
Asi
a
West
Euro
pe
Nort
h A
merica
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northeast Asia West Europe North America
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f To
ns
Petrochemical OutlookABS : Moderate demand growth with low capacity addition
35
Average ABS plant capacity by region
ABS demand catch up to additional capacity High operating rates required to meet demand
2019 Global market segmentation
Appliance39%
Other (Medical,Toy,Rec) 13%
Building & Const. 8%
Transportation 15%Electronics/Electrical
28%
Source : 2019 IHS Markit
36
Refinery Regulation ConcernIMO regulations to start in 2020 which benefit to LS refinery as IRPC
1.5%
1.0%
4.5%
3.5%
0.5%
Jan-200.1%
IMO implements
new Sulfur spec
Timeline of changes in Sulfur Emission RegulationIMO to cut global SF limits from marine fuels : 3.5% 0.5%
Global Bunker Fuel Demand, MMBD
Source: FGE’s Flash Alert 2 Feb’ 18
Consequence effects
Demand of gasoil for marine bunker blending support gasoil spread,
It is expected gasoil-FO spread will increase from 15-18$/bbl to 35-40$/bbl
Though, lower fuel oil price bring back power generation demand
Higher gasoil price and lower fuel oil price support light crude demand and push Dated/Dubai spread from 2$/bbl to 7$/bbl
3.54
1.25
1.30
2.56
1.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2019 2020
HSFO Gasoil LSFOGlobal Bunker Demand, MMBD
37
Positive impact from IMOStronger diesel/gasoline spread the highest GRM in 2020
Asia crack spreads
$/b
bl
International crude oil pricing
Co
nsta
nt
20
17
do
lla
rs p
er
ba
rrel
Global bunker fuel demand distribution
Consequence effects
Asian product cracks and crude oil differentials will start rising from 2H2019 ahead of IMO implementation
It is expected gasoil-FO spread will increase from 15-18$/bbl to 35-45$/bbl
Though, lower fuel oil price bring back power generation demand
Higher gas oil price and lower fuel oil price support light crude demand and push Dated/Dubai spread from 2$/bbl to 7$/bbl
38
Agenda
Industry Outlook
Performance Highlight
Strategic Direction
Projects Update
• Dividend Payment• CAPEX Plan• Financial Position• Financial Performance• History
Company Profile
Appendix
0.270.31
0.19
-0.04
0.04
-0.26
0.46 0.480.56
0.38
0.18 0.180.12
0.08 0.10 0.08
0.22 0.230.29
0.19
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EPS
Year Dividend
Dividend Policy & PaymentIRPC is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
39
67% 58% 63%
25% 25% 25%
48% 48% 52% 50%
Dividend Yield 4.1% 2.8% 2.9% 1.9% 3.1% 2.6% 5.1% 4.8% 4.1% 3.3%
Share Price 1 4.38 6.50 4.08 4.12 3.26 3.06 4.30 4.80 7.05 5.75
IRPC pay at 48-67% payout ratio with average dividend yield of 3.5%
Dividend Payout
Unit: THB
Div. Policy ≥ 25%
Note: 1 Closing price at the end of period
N.A.N.A.N.A.
40
CAPEX Plan in 2019 – 2023Bt 71 bn committed CAPEX
2,878 2,481 2,912 2,743 4,782
2,821 64
1,924 387 188
4,034 9,532
16,256 10,765
616
389
642
533
4,103
3,314
2,327
2,235
723
108
83
49
5,846
11,316
14,087
23,210
18,944
3,486
2018A 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
General & Maintenance Project
E4E, IRPC 4.0
MARS project
Strategic Investment Projects
Others
Unit: MB
15,739 ,
22%
2,311 , 3%
41,203 ,
58%
8,592 ,
12%
3,198 , 5%
IRPC 5 year CAPEX Plan
General & Maintenance Project
E4E, IRPC 4.0
Others
Total
71,043 MB
Strategic Investment Projects
MARS Project
* Excluding capex for investment opportunities of Bt 34 bn
*
125,965 125,147
9,852 9,971
44,291 47,751
2,338 2,806
87,380 87,538
2,609 2,614
50,665 49,877
41,792 45,646
3,066 6,361 6,440 6,439
10,981 -
1,902 - 1,268
3,169
3,364 -
6,888 -
-
6,430 8,262
13,327
7,707
14,151
2019 2020 2021 2022 >2022
THB Bond
USD Loan
THB Loan
ST Loan18%
LT Loan (USD)10%
LT Loan (THB)55%
Bond (THB)17%
Financial PositionIncreased inventory to served higher U-Rate after resuming operation
41
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Debt ProfileStatements of Financial Position
Cash Flow
Unit : MB
Remark: Long-term debt as at 31 Mar 2019
Unit: MB
PP&E
Other Non-C/A
Cash
Other CurrentLiabilities
LT Liabilities incl. current port.
Shareholders’Equity
Mar. 2019Dec. 2018
Other CA
Other Non-CurrentLiabilities
Beginning Cash
1 Jan 2019
Ending Cash31 Mar 2019
Cash Flow from
Operating
Unit: MB
Cash Flow from
Investing
Cash Flow from
Financing
Net Debt = 57,966 MB
Ex. Rate = 31.98 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
182,446 185,675Interest Rate Currency
Float 83% THB 67%
Fixed 17% USD 33%
0.95 0.96
4Q18 1Q19
2%
0.76 0.96 0.95
2016 2017 2018
42
Petroleum Spread
(50) (31) (46) (55)(20) (40)
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
737 602 518 588
471 482
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
417 498 447 513
375 330
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
(5.0)(2.3) (2.6)
(4.9)
1.4 0.6
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
10.8 12.5 14.6 14.8 14.8 12.8
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
14.9 14.9 10.5
13.7
4.7 3.7
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
$/BBL
$/BBL
$/BBL
Lube Base SpreadRefinery Spread
Gas oil - Dubai
ULG 95 - Dubai
HSFO - Dubai
1.3 0.7
(2.4) (0.5)(6.4) (7.5)
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Naphtha - Dubai
$/BBL
$/TON
$/TON
$/TON
YoY 10%
YoY 14%
YoY 48%
YoY 13%
YoY 17%
YoY 30% QoQ 21%
QoQ 14%
QoQ 57%
QoQ 12%
QoQ 2%
QoQ 100%
52.0 52.4 60.8
15.1 15.4 14.2
7.2 6.4 7.0
1.8 1.7 1.8
59.2 58.8 67.8
16.9 17.2 16.0
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Lube Base
Refinery
1Q19 Market GRM was $1.9/bbl:
QoQ: $4.0/bbl decrease as lower petroleum spread and the planned shutdown of the RDCC plant
YoY: $3.5/bbl decrease as lower petroleum spread 43
Petroleum Business2018: Higher crude run resulted in higher petroleum sales1Q19 : Low products spread & RDCC planned shutdown led to lower GRM
Refinery ProductionCrude Intake
Unit : Mbbl
2.7 3.1 3.5 3.4 4.4 0.8
2.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.6
1.1
4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.9
1.9
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Lube Base
Refinery
Crude intake (Mbbl)
Market GRMSales Volume & Revenue
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Volume
Revenue
67.0 65.576.1
61% 67% 66% 67% 69% 66%
39% 33% 34% 33% 31% 34%
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Sweet Crude
Sour Crude
183 180 208
98,348 119,015 163,724
37,556 40,924 33,337
14,80416,110
19,229
4,645 4,981 4,437
113,152 135,125
182,953
42,201 45,905
37,773
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Lube Base
Refinery
213 208 200 Crude Run (KBD)
85% 84% 97%
2018 MKT GRM was $5.2/bbl: Unchanged YoY due to higher Gas Oil spread versus lower Lube Base Oil spread
5.1 1.9 2.3
30.229.5
35.0
6.36.2
9.93.45.1
3.00.9 1.8
2.36.5 6.4
7.052.3 50.9
59.6
2016 2017 2018
3.0 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.0Premium over Dubai ($/bbl)
YoY 16%
57% 65% 63% 64% 66% 64%
23% 18% 15% 13% 12% 19%10% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6%
10% 10% 14% 14% 14% 11% Others
Domestic
Far East
Middle East
99% 97% 93% % Utilization
YoY 17%
YoY 10%
(price 5%, volume 5%)
QoQ 18%
(price 11%, volume 7%)
YoY 15%
YoY 35%(price 20%, volume 15%)
Unit : Mbbl
Unit : MB
YoY 6%
QoQ 4%
YoY 5%
QoQ 7%
0.4 0.5 0.48.6 8.9 8.4
2.4 2.6 2.00.7 0.9 1.00.6 0.6 0.5
1.8 1.7 1.814.6 15.3 14.1
1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Lube
LPG & Other
Naphtha &Reformate
Gasoline
Diesel & JetOil
Fuel Oil
YoY 3%
QoQ 8%
85% 84% 97% 99% 97% 93% % Utilization
93% 76% 85% 87% 84% 84% Lube Base
43% 80% 99% 105% 110% 70% RDCC
19.2 19.1 18.0
Petrochemical Spread
957
1,334 1,272 1,428
1,032 1,000
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
194 159
123 137 119 93
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
209 235 360 367 389 262
639 596 526 659 306 409
848 831 886 1,026
695 671
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
HDPE-Ethylene Ethylene-NP
250
172 196 182 219
154
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
817947 912 998
807 788
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
306 328 375 406 369 320
350 328 278 287 272 291
656 656 653 693 641 611
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Propylene-NP PP-Propylene
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread
PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread
MX – Naphtha SpreadToluene – Naphtha Spread
PS –Naphtha SpreadABS –Naphtha Spread
Ole
fin
sS
tyre
nic
sA
rom
ati
cs
44
YoY 7%
YoY 23%
YoY 5%
$/TON YoY - Stable
YoY 14%
YoY 4%
$/TON
$/TON $/TON
$/TON $/TON
QoQ 5%
QoQ 2%
QoQ 30%
QoQ 3%
QoQ 22%
QoQ 3%
22,335 24,684 28,760 6,969 6,660 5,642
29,780 35,044 43,980
10,589 10,815 9,987
52,115 59,728
72,740
17,558 17,475 15,629
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Olefins &Polyolefins
Aromatics &Styrenics
45
Petrochemical Group2018: dropped PTF as the decline in petchem. spread vs better product yield after projects completion1Q19 : PTF declined as low products spread
Production
PTF
Sales Volume and Revenue
677 631 728 183 176 181
857 952 1,107
272 278 282
1,534 1,583 1,835
455 454 463
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Olefins &Polyolefins
Aromatics &Styrenics
QoQ 2%
Revenue
YoY 2%
YoY 16% Unit : KMT
2018 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 73 bn
YoY : 22% increase from 6% price increase & 16% vol. increase (major TA in 1Q17)
2018 Market PTF was $7.3/bbl:
YoY : $0.9/bbl decrease as lower products spread
1Q19 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 16 bn QoQ : 11% decrease from 13% price decrease vs 2% vol. increase YoY : 11% decrease from 13% price increase vs 2% vol. increase
1Q19 Market PTF was $5.7/bbl:
QoQ : $1.4/bbl decrease as soften products spread
YoY : $2.0/bbl decrease as lower products spread
Crude intake (Mbbl)
Unit : $/bbl
386 350 400 104 103 107
9 12 19
10 5
310 313 338
78 88 50
296 317 295
79 76 68
535 600 807
194 215 186
1,536 1,591
1,860
465 488 411
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Polyolefins
Olefins
Polystyrenics
Styrenics
Aromatics
Unit : KMT Sales Volume
Unit : MB
YoY 17%
YoY 25%
QoQ 20% YoY 12%
YoY 11%
(price 13%, volume 2%)
QoQ 11%
(price 13%, volume 2%)
YoY 22%(price 6%, volume 16%)
2.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.5
5.1 5.2 4.7 5.0 4.5
4.2
7.1 8.3
7.3 7.6 7.1 5.7
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Olefins &Polyolefins
Aromatics &Styrenics
90% 87% 94% 91% 98% 89% % Utilization
87% 91% 90% 87% 95% 83% Polyolefins
92% 83% 100% 96% 101% 97% Olefins
91% 90% 101% 100% 104% 82% % Utilization
84% 88% 93% 86% 98% 69% Polystyrenics
82% 100% 110% 107% 113% 57% Styrenics
100% 88% 103% 108% 106% 107% Aromatics
YoY 12%
QoQ 16%
67.0 65.576.1 19.2 19.1 18.0
1,822 1,629 1,947
451 507 534
1,059
916
1,034
220 284 277
201
196
245
58 62 61
3,082
2,741
3,226
729853 872
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Other
Steam
Electricity
46
Power & Utility 2018: Increasing revenue of Power & UT resulted from high production vol. after major TA 1Q19 : Higher power & utility revenue due to higher sales volume to E-GAT
Utilization Rate
GIM
Revenue
QoQ 2%
YoY 20%
YoY 18%
2018 U-Rate of Electricity was 79%; 4%
2018 U-Rate of Steam was 79%; 6%
YoY : increase from higher production volume after major TA in 1Q17
2018 : Power & Utility revenue was 3,226 MB
YoY : 18% increase from higher U-Rate
1Q19 U-Rate of Electricity was 67%; 13% QoQ, 11% YoY
1Q19 U-Rate of Steam was 59%; 24% QoQ, 19% YoY
QoQ & YoY : decrease owing to RDCC ,Polyolefins and Polystyrenicsplants’ maintenance shutdown during 1Q19
1Q19 : Power & Utility revenue was 872 MB QoQ : 2% increase mainly from electricity sales vol. increase YoY : 20% increase mainly from higher electricity sales vol.
1.07 1.01 1.08 1.09 1.08 1.10
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Power &Utility
Unit : $/bbl
Unit : MB
75% 75% 79% 79% 80%67%
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Electricity
73% 73% 79% 78%83%
59%
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Steam
YoY 1%
QoQ 2%YoY 10%
YoY 6%
YoY 4%
YoY 19%
QoQ 24%
YoY 11%
QoQ 13%
2.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.5
5.1 5.2 4.7 5.0 4.5 4.2
7.1 8.3 7.3 7.6 7.1 5.7
Aromatics&Styrenics Olefins
13.0 14.5 13.6 14.1 14.1 8.7
1.3 1.7
(0.5)
0.3
(7.4)
1.3
(1.5) (0.7)
0.0 0.0
(0.1)
12.8 15.5 13.1 14.4 6.6
9.9
Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.9 1.9
7.1 8.3 7.3 7.6 7.1 5.7
1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.1
13.0 14.5 13.6 14.1 14.1
8.7
Petroleum Petrochem Power & Utility
2.7 3.1 3.5 3.4 4.4 0.8
2.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.6
1.1
4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.9
1.9
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Refinery Lube Base
11,616 11,663 12,858 3,260 3,732 1,084
16,869 18,443 18,085
4,645 4,469 3,247
2,548 2,264 2,663
664 678 627
31,033 32,370 33,606
8,569 8,879 4,958
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
31,033 32,370 33,607
8,569 8,879 4,958
3,045 3,720
(1,268)
194
(4,650)
719
(3,621) (1,452)
30
10
(78)
1
30,457 34,638 32,369
8,773 4,151 5,678
2016 2017 2018 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: MB
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bblPetrochemical
Petroleum
Unit: MB
47
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)2018: Higher crude premium & stock loss caused lower Acc. GIM1Q19: Better A/C GIM driven by higher of net stock gain though falling mkt GIM
YoY 38%
QoQ 38% YoY 6%
YoY 31% YoY 15% QoQ 50%
Accounting GIM
2018 Acct GIM was $13.1/bbl: $2.4/bbl from 2017 due to $1.5 higher stock loss and $0.9/bbl lower of market GIM
1Q19 Acct GIM was $9.9/bbl
QoQ: $3.4/bbl due to $8.8/bbl higher stock gain VS $5.4/bbl lower market GIM
YoY: $4.5/bbl due to $5.4/bbl lower market GIM VS $0.9/bbl higher stock gain
Market GIM
2018 Market GIM was $13.6/bbl: $0.9/bbl from 2017
Due to higher crude premium and lower products spread offsetting by better product yield after the COD of projects
1Q19 Market GIM was $8.7/bbl,
QoQ & YoY : $5.4/bbl due to the lower products spread & the planned
shutdown of RDCC plant VS lower crude premium
YoY 42%
QoQ 44% YoY 4%
YoY 62%
YoY 7%
QoQ 52%
48
Important Events in History
2009 2011 2013 2015 2016
HISTORY
KEY MILESTONES OF THE DECADE
• Increased refinery capacity from 65 kbd to 215 kbd
• Entered Rehabilitation Plan
Successful Rehabilitation new major shareholders:
Founded by “Leophairatana” Family as TPI
IPO Restructuring Plan was approved
Exited from Rehabilitation
plan and Registered as
IRPC Plc.
Operated first LDPE plant in
SEA
Debt Moratorium
MOF was appointed as plan
administrator
1978 1982 1995 1997 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006
Efficiency improvement#1 under “DELTA” Project
Capacity Increase: ABS/SAN to 179 KTA
Efficiency improvement#2 :
Launched “EVEREST” project
Business Improvement under Phoenix
Project
Commenced operation of
Combined Heat and Power Project
(CHP I)
• Commenced UHV project in July 2016
• PTT 31.5%• Gov’t (Vayupak) Fund
10%• Gov’t Saving Bank 10%• Gov’t Pension Fund
Group 10%
UHV: Upstream Project for Hygiene and Value Add Products
2017
• Commenced PPE project in Sept. 2017
• Commenced PPC project in Dec. 2017
2018
• Launched “GDP” project : Growth, Digital, People
Thank You
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