INVESTMENT MARKETIN POLANDH 2 2 0 1 8 M a r k e t V i e w

C B R E R e s e a r c h

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ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

Source: Oxford Economics, Q4 2018, *estimations

Figure 2. Ten-year government bond yields (2012 – 2021)

Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE House View, 2018

0% 2% 4% 6%

Italy

UK

France

Germany

Eurozone

Spain

Czech Republic

Romania

Hungary

Poland

Ireland

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USA UK Germany France Poland

Source: Oxford Economics, Q4 2018

Figure 3. Economic forecasts for Poland

Summary 2018 2019 2020

GDP Growth 5.3% 3.6% 2.7%

Unemployment 6.0% 5.5% 5.1%

CPI 1.8% 1.9% 2.2%

Short-term Interest Rates (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Figure 1. GDP growth 2018*

CBRE RESEARCH© CBRE Poland 2018 H2 2018 MARKETVIEW

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24%

40%

15%

14%

3%2% 3% America

Western Europe

Africa

Asia

CEE

Poland

Unknown

Figure 3. Sector breakdown of total investment activity in 2018 (%)

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INVESTMENT MARKET SUMMARY

Source: CBRE, 2018

Figure 4. The origin of capital within the Polish Investment market 2018

Source: CBRE, 2018

CBRE RESEARCH© CBRE Poland 2018 H2 2018 MARKETVIEW

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Figure 5. Share of portfolio deals in the retail sector (%)

Source: CBRE, 2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

€ 2,000

€ 2,400

€ 2,800

€ 3,200

€ 3,600

€ 4,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: CBRE, 2018

Figure 6. CBRE Capital Value Index in the retail sector (EUR/sq m)

RETAIL MARKET

CBRE RESEARCH© CBRE Poland 2018 H2 2018 MARKETVIEW

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€ 1,000

€ 1,500

€ 2,000

€ 2,500

€ 3,000

€ 3,500

€ 4,000

€ 4,500

€ 5,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Office Warsaw

Office Warsaw Central

Office Warsaw Non-Central

Office Regional

67%

33%

Warsaw Regional

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Figure 7. Regional breakdown in office sector

Source: CBRE, 2018

Figure 8. CBRE Capital Value Index in the office sector (EUR/sq m)

Source: CBRE, 2018

OFFICE MARKET

CBRE RESEARCH© CBRE Poland 2018 H2 2018 MARKETVIEW

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€ 0

€ 100

€ 200

€ 300

€ 400

€ 500

€ 600

€ 700

€ 800

€ 900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Figure 9. CBRE Capital Value Index in the industrial sector (EUR/sq m)

INDUSTRIAL AND HOTEL MARKETS

Source: CBRE, 2018

© CBRE sp. z o.o. 2018

RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY

CBRE SERVICES FOR INVESTMENT PROPERTIES

VALUATION ADVISORY

DEBT & STRUCTURED FINANCE

OFFICE SECTOR SERVICES RETAIL SECTOR SERVICES INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SERVICES

INVESTMENT PROPERTIES