Investing in a More Flexible, Mobile Future

Land SyStemS

In contrast to the West, the majority of Asian states have actually increased their spending on security and defence. The financial crisis of 2008, which sparked a sharp

economic recession, has forced many states in Europe and North America to cut government spending (including defence spending) in order to deal with budgetary deficits and sovereign debt problems.2 The picture in Asia however, is very different, with defence spending rising steadily since 2000, a trend that continued even during the recent recession.3

While a significant proportion of defence spending goes on naval procurement4 given the strategic geography of the region, ground forces and their associated equipment are still seen as an important part of a state’s armed forces. This article looks at what is driving the current trends in land systems procurement, the policy implications of these trends and what implications they will have for future force structures.

Investing In A More Flexible, Mobile FutureAs border disputes, geostrAtegic threAts, humAnitArion missions And terrorist Activity fuels the need for mobile, rApidly deployAble forces, peter Antill 1, centre for defence Acquisition, crAnfield university, defence AcAdemy of the uK, sAys light Armoured vehicles Are becoming increAsingly populAr with Armies in the AsiA pAcific region.

A LeopArd MBT(AusTrALiAn dod, CopyrighT CoMMonweALTh of AusTrALiA)

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Geostrategic Imperatives – At the centre of this lies the uncertainty as to where exactly the regional distribution of power will be in the coming years. This suspicion, allied to other security concerns (some of which are listed below), has caused a gradual increase in tension. To make things worse, two additional factors have come into play. The first is the expanding power and ambition of China, an example of which was the declaration in late November 2013 of an air defence identification zone over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.5 Such a move could be repeated over other disputed territories, such as the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.6 The second is the renewed interest of the United States, which since 2011, has refocused its strategic gaze on the region, partly as a result of Chinese moves.7

Territorial and Border Disputes – The region is rife with territorial and border disputes, many of which go back

Land SyStemS

decades. Examples include the already mentioned Senkaku8, Spratly and Paracel9 Islands, but also the Kurile Islands in Russia’s Sakhalin Oblast region; the Arunachal Pradesh / Tibet border; Aksai Chin, one of the two main disputed border areas between China and India; the Takeshima Islands in the Japan Sea; Kashmir; North Borneo; the Korean peninsula; and Scarborough Shoal, located between the Macclesfield Bank and Luzon island in the Philippines in the South China Sea.10 While these disputes have provided much of the impetus behind the steady upward pressure on defence spending, it is also very likely that some of this is related to the fact that an upgrade of much of the region’s land systems is overdue, with a number of states continuing to hold ageing equipment stocks.11

Protection of Offshore Territory or Installations – Closely linked to the above, the geography of much of the region means that many states have territory, claim territory and / or have offshore installations (such as oil and natural gas) that are geographically separate from the mainland or the main islands. While the distances involved mean that the protection of this territory or these facilities are predominantly the task of naval and air forces, ground forces are still central to the conduct of not only amphibious operations (which explains the drive by several regional powers to build up their expeditionary and naval aviation capabilities) but also to provide “in-situ” garrisons.

Regional Arms Race – The increases in tension noted above have led to evidence of “action-reaction dynamics taking hold and influencing regional states’ military programmes.”12 This has led to increasing materiel

proliferation and “an arms race has emerged in a number of fields as Asia-Pacific states seek to achieve parity with near neighbours.”13

Criminal and Terrorist Activity – With around 90% of the world’s trade transported by sea, there is continued concern over the threat posed by piracy (something that has occurred in the area over countless generations) and its link to the so-called “ungoverned maritime space”.14 While the guarding of shipping and interception of sea-borne criminals and terrorists is primarily the realm of naval and air forces, ground troops are still required to conduct boarding actions or amphibious operations against their bases. Several countries also have ongoing insurgencies, such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.15

Humanitarian Aid / Disaster Relief – While many would correctly argue that both air and maritime forces are “uniquely equipped to provide international aid and rapid response to natural and man-made disasters”16, once points of entry into the disaster zone (such as airports and sea ports) are established, ground forces can prove invaluable in working with local officials and non-governmental organisations to help distribute aid in-country.

POLICY IMPLICATIONSInteroperability – With the rebalancing of US strategic

priorities towards the Pacific and the likelihood of increasing US combat power being based in the region, one important factor for states to consider will be their degree of interoperability with not only US forces, but other regional forces too. This latter point is important in light of the build-up

A M113 ArMoured personneL CArrier froM The AusTrALiAn ArMoured CAvALry

regiMenT (phoTo By LAC oLiver CArTer)


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Land SyStemS

of Chinese combat power, something that no regional actor can hope to counter individually.

Network-centric Warfare – Linked to both the above concepts is the idea of network-centric warfare, which involves the use of information technology (IT), high-speed data links and networking software to link widely separate personnel, assets and combat units into integrated local- and wide-area networks. This enables all those who are linked to the network to share critical information on a continuous basis in real time and leads to improvements in both combat capability and efficiency.17

Logistic Support – Any military force, as part of its overall capability needs to have an effective, sustainable and resilient logistic support system in place so it can carry out its operational tasks. This includes a supply chain anchored in the home base but that is flexible enough to be projected across the sea using underway replenishment. An alternative to this would be to establish foreign basing rights.

Mobility and Flexibility – Ground forces, which have traditionally relied on equipment such as Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), Self-Propelled Artillery and Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), are at a disadvantage. There are limits to how quickly and in what quantity these can be deployed away from the home base and such deployment is dependent upon having a suitable air and sea transport capability. Hence, the growing emphasis on lighter armoured vehicles such as Protected Patrol Vehicles (PPVs) that can be moved quickly, and in quantity. For example, the C-17 Globemaster can carry one M1 Abrams MBT, three Strykers (or Boxer MRAVs) or six M1117 Armoured Security Vehicles.18

FORCE STRUCTURE IMPLICATIONSThis move towards force projection (not only for states

in Asia but right across the globe) has not only impacted procurement and logistics programmes but has meant that ground forces have been forced to adapt to new realities by becoming more flexible and have greater mobility (in terms of both operational deployment to and from a theatre, as well as in theatre) than ever before. As a result, the emphasis in vehicle fleets has moved towards agility, rather than higher levels of armoured protection, so light armoured vehicles have found increasing favour with the region’s militaries. As the NATO forces in Afghanistan have discovered, such vehicles “not only provide highly flexible solutions for ground operations, they are less expensive to acquire and maintain than heavier armoured vehicles, making them more cost-effective and attractive to governments with pressing budgetary constraints to consider.”19

CURRENT AND FUTURE PROGRAMMESThe move towards wheeled vehicles, especially in the

amphibious vehicle market, can be seen in the proportion of the market such vehicles represent. Globally, out of a total military vehicle market worth US$449 billion, the amphibious market is valued at around $63 billion, with Asia accounting for around $26.8 billion. Of the global total, wheeled vehicles account for $30.8 billion (48%), whereas tracked vehicles only account for $23.4 billion (37%). On top of that, over the next 10 years, new production of military vehicles is forecast to be in the region of $43.8 billion while modification and upgrading is forecast to be $5.2 billion. But given that it’s cheaper to modify / upgrade existing vehicles compared to building

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(dod phoTo By MAss CoMMuniCATion speCiALisT 1sT CLAss ChAd MCneeLey)

“THE BUILD-UP OF CHINESE COMBAT POWER IS SOMETHING THAT NO REGIONAL ACTOR CAN

HOPE TO COUNTER INDIVIDUALLY”

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new vehicles, a better measure is the overall breakdown of production units, which in this case totals 19,407 new vehicles and 8,079 modified vehicles over the period. The only downside of this emphasis on wheeled (amphibious) vehicles is that they are not as suited to landing on a contested beach as their tracked brethren.20

LAND SYSTEMS PROCUREMENT PROGRAMMES IN ASIA PACIFIC INCLUDE:21

• Australia is still in the process of receiving 1,052 Bushmaster PPVs from Thales Australia, which also had some export success with 86 Bushmasters being bought by the Netherlands, 24 by the UK and 12 ordered by Jamaica for delivery in 2015. The company is also developing the Hawkei (4x4) light protected vehicle (LPV) to meet the requirements of the Australian Army’s Project Land 121, Phase 4, while Rheinmetall won the US$1.48 billion contract

indiAn ArMy T-90 MBTs in ACTion (phoTo CrediT: foTer.CoM CC By 2.0)

to supply 2,500 logistics vehicles as part of Land 121 Phase 3B. Six prototypes in three configurations have already been delivered for trials, and as many as 1,300 vehicles could be ordered. BAE Systems Australia has upgraded over 400 M113 APCs with new power packs and spall liners to extend their service lives.

• China has a long and well-established AFV design, development and production capability. China North Industries Corporation (Norinco) has marketed many Chinese land systems abroad, including the Type 59, Type 69, Type 80 and Type 85 MBTs. The latest MBTs to enter Chinese service are the Type 98 and Type 99 MBTs, which feature the Type 85’s 125mm gun and improved armour, but have yet to be offered for export. Norinco also offers the MBT-2000, MBT-3000 and VT-2 tanks, the most advanced of which is the MBT-3000, but at 52 tonnes, makes it a little heavy for some customers, with

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the VT-2 (at 42.8 tonnes) making it a better prospect. China also makes a range of APCs and IFVs, with the ZBD-04 IFV now being marketed as the VN11 and the WZ551 / WMZ551 (6x6) APC being sold to Ethiopia, Oman, Sri Lanka and Sudan, while it pursues development of an exportable 8x8 APV based on the ZBD-09.• India – AFV production in India has had a chequered

history, with the Combat Vehicle Research and Development Establishment beginning development of the Arjun MBT in 1974. The Arjun Mk I entered service in 2004 while the Mk II (featuring improved armour, a remote station and an advanced defensive aids suite) began trials in 2012. To fill the gap while the Arjun was being developed, the Indian Army bought firstly T-72 and then T-90S MBTs from Russia, with production beginning locally at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi, Chennai. A procurement oversight meant that the T-90S MBTs were not fitted with air conditioning causing problems with onboard systems and crews operating in 55°C temperatures. India also manufactured a local version of the BMP-2 IFV (“Sareth”) with several variants and is looking to upgrade them to extend their service lives. India is also developing an indigenous IFV, named “Abhay”, which is expected to number some 2,170 vehicles as well as upgrading its BMP-1 IFVs, and starting in 2017, its BMP-2 IFVs.22

• Indonesia is still in the process of receiving 103 Leopard 2A4 MBTs and 42 Marder 1A3 IFVs from Rheinmetall but has upgraded AFVs for a long time. PT Pindad developed the Anoa (6x6) APC, which is similar to the French Véhicule de l’Avant Blindé. The Indonesian Army bought around 150 vehicles, but it is also offered for export. PT Pindad also recently signed an agreement with Turkish company, FNSS Savunma Sistemleri, to develop a series of 105mm-armed medium tanks to meet an Indonesian Army requirement.• Japan is developing a 105mm armed Mobile Combat

Vehicle, which follows the overall trend towards wheeled platforms that have an amphibious capability, but announced the acquisition of another 68 Type 10 MBTs.• Malaysia will replace its obsolete SIBMAS (6x6) and

Condor (4x4) AFVs with up to 500 AV8 AFVs, designed by FNSS Savunma Sistemleri, a development of its Pars (8x8) APC. The Malaysian company, Deftech, will locally produce at least 257 vehicles in two variants—the IFV and the AIFV. The IFV will have a one-man turret armed with a 25mm cannon and 7.62mm machine gun, while the AIFV will have a two-man turret from Denel Land Systems, armed with a 30mm cannon and 7.62mm machine gun. Malaysia has also received the first of 48 PT-91M MBTs from Poland, along with six WZT-91M armoured recovery vehicles, three MID-91 armoured engineer vehicles and five PMC-90M armoured vehicle launched bridges. • Pakistan has an agreement between Norinco and local

company, Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) dating back to 1 October 198823, to jointly design, develop, produce and upgrade MBTs. This includes the Type 59 MBT but also production of the Type 69, Type 85 and the MBT-2000, which is called the “Al Khalid” in-country. Pakistan also acquired 350 T-80UD MBTs from Ukraine. HIT also produced the M113A2 APC for the Pakistan Army as well as two locally produced variants—the Saad and Talha APCs.• The Philippines24 has an ongoing need to upgrade much of

its equipment. It is due to receive 142 M113A2 APCs from the United States (some of which will be upgraded by Elbit), night vision equipment from Nightline, manpack and vehicle radios from Harris, 190 KM450 (4x4) and 250 KM250A (6x6) trucks from Kia and is looking for man-portable air defence systems, multiple rocket launchers and 155mm artillery systems.• South Korea – Like China, South Korea can design,

develop and produce most types of AFV. They have acquired around 1,500 K1 and K1A1 MBTs from Hyundai-Rotem along

indiA’s Arjun MBT (phoTo CrediT: foTer.CoM CC By 2.0)

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with specialist ARVs with the help of Rheinmetall, and an AVLB with the help of what was Vickers Defence Systems. The K2 MBT is now entering production, which features a new two-man turret with a 120mm L/55 smoothbore gun, advanced armour and a defensive aids system. The South Koreans also operate their own IFV produced by Doosan Infracore, and have just started to bring into service the K21 IFV, which features a two-man turret armed with a 40mm cannon and 7.62mm machine gun, as well as an anti-tank guided weapon launcher on the left side of the turret. Doosan, Hyundai-Rotem and Samsung Techwin are all developing families of 6x6 and 8x8 AFVs.• Singapore – Singapore Technologies Kinetics have

overhauled and upgraded Singapore’s AMX-13 light tanks and M113 APCs, as well as designed, developed and produced the Bionix IFV, which is in service with the Singapore Armed Forces. It is armed with a two-man turret and a 25mm or 30mm cannon and a cupola with a 40mm grenade launcher and .50cal machine gun. It also produced the Bronco AFV, which was acquired by the UK under the name “Warthog’” as well as the Terrex (8x8) APC, which is now in volume production. STK teamed up with SAIC (an American company) to offer the Terrex to the US Marine Corps for their US Marine Personnel Carrier programme. Singapore has also bought 270 AV8 APCs, and may buy another 540.

• Taiwan25 began production of the indigenous CM-32 (8x8) APC, following the trend of other modular vehicle families and it is expected to number between 500 and 1,400 vehicles.• Thailand26 – While the defence budget rose 7% in 2013,

much of the Royal Thai Army’s equipment is old and a modernisation programme is in hand. Ukraine has benefited with orders for 96 BTR-3E1 (8x8) APC in 2008, 121 in 2011 and another 21 in August 2013, with 49 T-84 Oplot MBTs being ordered in 2011, the first of which arrived in February 2014. The Thais also ordered the Tavor assault rifle from IWI to replace older M16s and two different 155mm truck-based Howitzer systems while trying to develop their indigenous defence industrial base with Chaiseri receiving an order for 21 of its First Win (4x4) AFV in May 2011.

CONCLUSIONLand systems procurement in South and Southeast Asia

has seen steadily increasing levels of expenditure as the economies of the region grow. The current and future size of these budgets and how these budgets have been and will be spent, hinge on a number of complex, yet interdependent variables. These include geographic concerns, evolving foreign and defence policies, strategic considerations, international relations, territorial / border disputes, as well as local, regional and global security concerns tied in with

A deveLopMenT of fnss sAvunMA sisTeMLeri’s pArs 8x8 ApC (piCTured) wiLL Be fieLded By MALAysiA (phoTo: fnss sAvunMA sisTeMLeri)

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such activity as insurgencies, terrorism, piracy, as well as the trafficking of people and drugs. What complicates an already complex picture will be the interaction of the region’s three major players, China, India and the United States. n

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Peter Antill rejoined Cranfield University in June 2009 to

undertake research in order to create a defence acquisition body of knowledge as well as several projects aimed at producing a continuous stream of publications over the longer term. This has included various books, journal articles, case studies, conference papers, monographs and chapters in edited publications as well as updating teaching material used by the Centre for Defence Acquisition. Peter graduated from Staffordshire University in 1993 with a BA (Hons) International Relations and followed that with an MSc Strategic Studies from Aberystwyth in 1995 and a PGCE (Post-Compulsory Education) from Oxford Brookes in 2005.

FOOTNOTES1 My thanks to Jeremy Smith for his help in putting this article together.

2 International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2013) The Military Balance

2013, Routledge: London, 14 March 2013, located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1

080/04597222.2013.756999, pp. 59-66 and 92-94, as of 19 March 2014.

3 Hofbauer, J., Hermann, P. and Raghavan, S. (2012) Asian Defence

Spending 2000-2011, October 2012, Centre for Strategic & International

Studies, currently located at http://csis.org/files/publication/121005_

Berteau_AsianDefenseSpending_Web.pdf, as of 26 March 2014; Op Cit.

IISS, 2013, p. 249.

4 See Antill, P. and Young, S. (2013) ‘Powering Up Naval Procurement’ in

Defence Procurement International, Winter 2013-14, pp. 28-35.

5 Branigan, T. (2013) ‘Airlines ‘Must Warn China’ of Flight Plans Over

Disputed Islands’ in The Guardian, posted 25 November 2013, at http://

www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/25/china-air-defence-zone-japan-

islands-diaoyu-senkaku, as of 20 March 2014.

6 Lewis, P. and Ackerman, S. (2013) ‘US Calls on China to Rescind Air

Defence Zone to Avoid Japanese Confrontation’ in The Guardian, posted

3 December 2013 at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/us-

china-rescind-air-defence-zone-confrontation-japan, as of 22 March 2014.

7 Sutter, R. et al. (2013) Balancing Acts: The US Rebalance and Asia-

Pacific Stability, August 2013, at http://www.gwu.edu/~sigur/assets/docs/

BalancingActs_Compiled1.pdf, as of 23 March 2014.

8 BBC. (2013) ‘Q&A: China-Japan Islands Row’ webpage, dated 27

November 2013, located at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-

pacific-11341139, as of 23 March 2014.

9 BBC. (2013) ‘Q&A: South China Sea Dispute’ webpage, dated 15 May

2013, located at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349,

as of 23 March 2014.

10 Le Mière, C. and Raine, S. (2013) ‘Water Pollution – South China Sea

Dispute Taints the Region’ in Jane’s Intelligence Review, posted 17

January 2013, at www.janes.ihs.com, as of 24 March 2014; Moss, T.

(2013) ‘History’s Long Wars: A Long View of Asia’s Territorial Disputes’ at

thediplomat.com, dated 15 September 2013, located at http://thediplomat.

com/2013/09/history-wars-a-long-view-of-asias-territorial-disputes/, as

of 21 March 2014; Dolvin, B., Kan, S. and Manyin, M. (2013) Maritime

Territorial Disputes in East Asia – Issues for Congress, Congressional

Research Service, 30 January 2013, located at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/

row/R42930.pdf, as of 20 March 2014.

11 Grevatt, J. (2013) ‘Briefing: Powering Up’ in Jane’s Defence Weekly,

posted 16 July 2013 at www.janes.ihs.com, as of 22 March 2014.

12 Op Cit. IISS, 2013, p. 245.

13 Anderson, G. (2012) ‘Briefing: Asia-Pacific Emerging Markets – Growing

and Evolving’ in Jane’s Defence Weekly, posted 3 July 2012 at www.janes.

ihs.com, as of 26 March 2012.

14 Le Mière, C. (2013) ‘All at Sea – Illicit Activity Thrives in Ungoverned

Maritime Areas’ in Jane’s Intelligence Review, posted 9 October 2013, at

www.janes.ihs.com, as of 24 March 2014; DeHart, J. (2013) ‘Pirates of the

Southeast Asian Seas’ at thediplomat.com, dated 23 July 2013, located at

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/pirates-of-the-southeast-asian-seas/, as of

25 March 2014.

15 Arthur, G. (2014) ‘Asian Ambition’ in Land Warfare International, Volume

5, Number 2 (April / May 2014), pp. 8-11, currently located at http://mags.

shephardmedia.com//LWI/2014/LWI_AprMay14_webmag42985/pubData/

source/LWI_AprMay14_webmag.pdf, as of 16 April 2014.

16 Bellamy, C. (2013) ‘Naval Power: Strategic Relevance in the 21st Century’

in Jane’s Navy International, posted 2 December 2013, at www.janes.ihs.

com, as of 27 March 2014.

17 Folks II, Lt Col R. (2011) Network Centric Warfare in the Age of

Cyberspace Operations, 22 May 2011, Strategy Research Project, US

Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA, located at http://www.hsdl.

org/?view&did=744280‎, as of 2 April 2014; Wikipedia. (2013) ‘Network

Centric Warfare’ webpage, located at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network-

centric_warfare as of 2 April 2014.

18 Antill, P. (2014) ‘European Collaborative Procurement – The Multi-Role

Armoured Vehicle Programme’ in Moore, D and Antill, P. (2014) Case

Studies in Defence Procurement and Logistics – Volume II, Cambridge:

Cambridge Academic Press. (forthcoming)

19 Apthorp, C. (2011) ‘Light Armoured Vehicle Procurement in Asia’ in

Defence Review Asia, located at http://www.defencereviewasia.com/

articles/133/Light-armoured-vehicle-procurement-in-Asia, as of 19 March

2014.

20 Wasserbly, D. (2014) ‘IHS Jane’s Insight Report – March 2014’ in Defence

Insight Reports, posted 17 March 2014 at www.janes.ihs.com as of 1 April

2014.

21 Foss, C. (2014) ‘Forging Ahead: Asian Armour Update’ in Jane’s Defence

Weekly, posted 27 March 2014 at www.janes.ihs.com, as of 27 March

2014; Hardy, J. (2013) ‘Annual Defence Report 2013: Asia Pacific’ in

Jane’s Defence Weekly, posted 4 December 2013 at www.janes.ihs.com,

as of 2 April 2014; Op Cit. Apthorp, 2011.

22 Op Cit. Wasserbly, 2014.

23 Army Guide website. (2008) ‘Al Khalid’ webpage, located at http://www.

army-guide.com/eng/product41.html as of 1 April 2014.

24 Op Cit. Arthur, April / May 2014.

25 Op Cit. Wasserbly, 2014.

26 Op Cit. Arthur, April / May 2014.

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Investing in a More Flexible, Mobile Future