Introduction to the discussion of the presentation by Y. L’Horty

ASIRPA International WS13 June 2012

ASIRPASocio-economic analysis of the diversity of Impacts of Public Research for Agriculture

• Main Sources– Recent Advances in Impact Analysis Methods for

Ex-post Impact Assessments of Agricultural Technology: Options for the CGIAR (Independent Science & Partnership Council, CGIAR, April 2011)

– « Impact Evaluation: A tool for Accountability? Lessons from experience at AFD » (J.D. Naudet et al., Evaluation and its discontents, Paris, March 26th 2012, AFD-EUDN Conference)

Experience of AFD (Naudet 2012)

New generation of Impact Evaluation methods used in the area of development aid:

(Paris Declaration for Aid Effectiveness -2005) – Based on the model of EBM– Comparisons of treatment and control groups

(Randomized Control Trial – RCT), in order to reliably estimate causal relationships between interventions and their outcomes

– Mainly used by development agencies– Purpose of accountability rather than learning

Two large scale randomized control trials related to micro-credit in Morocco, and health insurance in Cambodia. Methodological problems:• On whom is the impact measured

Problem of rate of participation / externalities

• The impact of « what »?Conditions of the study may themselves affect the impact(e.g. the effect of “being (almost) offered an insurance” and not the effect of “taking an insurance”)

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Conditions of validity of Randomized Control Trials (After Agence Française de Développement –AFD)

– Homogeneous inputs– A simple causal chain– Large participation and stable behaviours– Short term effects, simple dynamics of effects

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Economic

Environmental

Social

PolicyTerritorial

Biodiversity

Health

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Impact of Genetic breeding against scrapie