Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia

Jun MatsumotoDepartment of Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/ Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC)

Chairman of the Post-GAME Planning Working Group

Flood in Assam, India, August, 2004 　　　　　　　　　

Status of the postStatus of the post--GAME planningGAME planning

• Aug. 28, 2005: 1-st International Planning Workshop at Kyoto, Japan

• Sept. 26, 2005: First proposal in the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) meeting, at Melbourne, Australia

• Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop at Tokyo, Japan

Still in the build-up stage, until September 2006

Project title (candidates proposed in the Project title (candidates proposed in the final GAME Conference etc.)final GAME Conference etc.)

• COPAM: Coordinated Observation & Prediction of Asian Monsoon (Proposed in the Final GAME Science Conference in December 2004)

• COMAP: Coordinated Monsoon Asian Program • GMAP: GEOSS Monsoon Asian Program • ICECREAM: International Cooperative Experiments for

Climatic Research on Asian Monsoon• PHACE-AM: Project on Hydro-Atmospheric

Collaborative Experiment in Asian Monsoon• COPE-AM: Coordinated Observation and Prediction

Experiment in (for) Asian Monsoon• AM-CoRE: Asian Monsoon Coordinated Research and

Experiment

Project title (tentative)Project title (tentative)MAHASRI

Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative

orMonsoon Asia Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative

orMonsoon Asia Hydrospheric-Atmospheric System Research and Prediction Initiative

Bodhisattva Stupa-mahasri卒都波大吉祥菩萨 also known as the Vajra of Joyous Benefit. Stupa refers to the 5 Elements that constitutes all sentient beings. This deity manifests the joy of liberation in the midst of the endless cycles of birth & death that sentient beings experience.

ObjectiveObjective

"To establish hydro-meteorological prediction system, particularly up to seasonal time-scale, through better scientific understanding of Asian monsoon variability".

Key Science Issues (1)Key Science Issues (1)• Atmosphere-ocean-land interactions in the

Asian monsoon system• Scale-interactions among diurnal, synoptic,

intraseasonal and seasonal variability of Asian monsoon

• Interactions of surface and boundary layer processes with convective cloud system

• Comparisons of hydro-meteorological characteristics among regional monsoon sub-systems

Key Science Issues (2)Key Science Issues (2)• Effect of human influences (i.e., aerosols, land-

use change, and greenhouse-gas increase) on hydro-meteorological variations in Asian monsoon regions

• Down-scaling and up-scaling for/with regional hydro-meteorological modeling and forecast

• Transferability of land-surface hydrological models and parameters for prediction of ungauged basins

• Incorporation of new technologies for observation and computation

Linear trend of summer precipitationLinear trend of summer precipitation（（JJAJJA））:1961:1961--20002000

(Endo et al., 2005)

increasing

decreasing

Analysis based ondaily rainfall data ofmore than 700 stationsfor 1950s-2000

Changes in the Pacific Ocean?Changes in the Tibetan Plateau?Global warming?Aerosol increase?Deforestation over Indochinaetc….??

What will we achieve?What will we achieve?• Determine predictability and key phenomena of

Asian monsoon variability up-to seasonal time-scale for the use of hydro-meteorological prediction system

• Develop real-time monitoring and/or modeling system for hydro-meteorological prediction and water management in specific river basins in Asian monsoon regions

• Develop integrated hydrometeorologicaldatabase of Asian monsoon regions with data rescue

International cooperation strategiesInternational cooperation strategies• Facilitate and/or improve hydro-meteorological

observations in Asian monsoon countries in conjunction with GEOSS

• Cooperate with CEOP-II by observations, data and hydrometeorelogical studies in Asian monsoon

• Contribute IPY by conducting intensive observations in Asian monsoon region

• Capacity building for observation, analysis, data-integration and modeling

• Data exchange to establish an integrated database

Differences from GAMEDifferences from GAME？？• More concrete collaboration with Asian

hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes　→ Present proto-type model for the

hydrometeorological prediction system• Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction

but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community

• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, (Pakistan?), while retreat from Siberia → “MAHASRI” is beyond “GAME”!

Data Management

Water and Energy Budget Studies

Water Resource Applications Project

Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group

Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes

Transferability

CEOP IAEA

Northeast Asia

Tropics

Tibet/HimalayaEast Asia

MAHASRI

Differences from GAMEDifferences from GAME？？• More concrete collaboration with Asian

hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes　→ Present proto-type model for the

hydrometeorological prediction system• Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction

but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community

• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while retreat from Siberia

• Targeting also winter monsoon• Main time-scale: weekly to seasonal for prediction,

year-to-year variability for research including long-term data rescue

Structure of (MAHASRI)

Core Centers:• Program promotion office (PPO) for

coordination of Observations and Modeling activities

• Coordinated Modeling Center (CMC)• Data Archive & Management Center (DAMC)• Regional Centers (RC)Affiliated (coordinated) Projects:• National projects• International or mutli-national projects

Structure of (MAHASRI)

PPC

DAMC CMC

Core Structure

Project A

Project B

Project C

Project D

Project X

Project E

2005. 11. 1 version

Each Project may beNational, multi-national orInternational.

APHWAOGS

Structure of (MAHASRI)

PPC

DAMC CMC

Core Structure

Project A

Project B

Project C

Project D

Project X

Project E

2005. 11. 1 version

Each Project may beNational, multi-national orInternational.

APHWAOGS

RC-1

RC-3

RC-2

RC-4

Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP)

Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-1: Observation Network in Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Indian-Ocean Mooring Array

K. Mizuno (IORGC)

Maritime-Continent Radar Network

M. D. Yamanaka (IORGC)

Buoy Observation

Y. Kuroda(IORGC/MARITEC)

K. Ando (IORGC)Y.Yamaguchi,Y.Ishihara

K.Matsumoto (MARITEC)

Data Analysis

Y. Masumoto(IORGC/UTokyo)

H.Hase, I.Ueki (IORGC)

Radar Observation

H. Hashiguchi(KyotoU)

Y.Shibagaki (OsakaECU) T.Shimomai (ShimaneU)M.K.Yamamoto(KyotoU)

M.Kawashima, Y.Fujiyoshi(Hokkaido U)

R. Shirooka, M.Katsumata (IORGC)

Data Analysis

M. D. Yamanaka(IORGC/KobeU)

S. Mori, P.M. Wu, Hamada J.I., S. Ogino, K.Ichiyanagi, T.Sasaki

(IORGC)Y.Tachibana (IORGC/TokaiU)

80°70°

80°70°

10°

0°

-10°

Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-2: Observation research and technology development on water

cycle and climatic changes in Asian monsoon regionDevelopment of rainfall observation system in Southeast Asia Jun Matsumoto (University of Tokyo ・ JAMSTEC/ IORGC)

(1)Rainfall distribution

Rainfall observation system study（Matsumoto: UT）

Rainfall system and water cycle study （Kuraji: UT）

Rainfall database（Agata:UT）

Rainfall estimation by micro wave remote sensing（Sato: NICT）

Rainfall estimation using radar（Hayashi:KU.,Terao:OGU ）

Application of rainfall data to the flood prediction system （Kanae:RIHN）

(2)Flood prediction

Real-time rainfall map and its application to flood prediction

Time Schedule Time Schedule Research phases:• September, 2005-September, 2006: Planning

and preparation phase• September, 2006-March, 2011(?): Research

phase (2006-07: Build-up new observation systems)

• 2008: IOP-year in conjunction with IPY (?)• 2009-2010: Major analysis phase• March, 2011-March, 2012: Concluding phase

ShortShort--term scheduleterm schedule• Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop • Nov. 2-4, 2005: Water Cycle Symposium in Asia • Nov. 4-6, 2005: Workshop on Hydro-informatics and

atmospheric sciences, Thailand• Mid-November: Proposal of Science Plan Draft to GEWEX-SSG

members• Jan. 2006: Proposal in the GEWEX-SSG• Mar. 2006: Proposal in the WCRP-JSC• April 2006: Scientific workshop on winter monsoon in conjunction

with the WMONEX meeting, at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia• Late April, 2006: Scientific workshop on summer monsoon at

Hue, Vietnam• Oct. 16-18, 2006: APHW Meeting

1-st ISP meeting will be held along with scientific meeting in thespecial session