Pacific RegionPacific Region WFO Guam, WFO Honolulu WFO Guam, WFO Honolulu

andandCentral Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Operational use of Ocean SurfaceOperational use of Ocean Surface Vector Winds (SVW) Vector Winds (SVW)

Roger EdsonRoger EdsonScience and Operations Officer, WFO GuamScience and Operations Officer, WFO Guam

Wes BrowningWes Browning Science and Operations Officer, WFO Honolulu Science and Operations Officer, WFO Honolulu

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• Operational missions of WFOs in the Operational missions of WFOs in the Pacific Region (extensive ocean area)Pacific Region (extensive ocean area)

• Access to QuikSCAT dataAccess to QuikSCAT data• Examples of uses over the OceansExamples of uses over the Oceans• Uses of Scatterometer data with Uses of Scatterometer data with

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones• Fixing ‘problem’ areasFixing ‘problem’ areas• Combining the scatterometer winds Combining the scatterometer winds

with other datawith other data– Satellite Imagery (visual, infrared and microwave)Satellite Imagery (visual, infrared and microwave)– Surface Reports (station, ship, aircraft Surface Reports (station, ship, aircraft

reconnaissance and buoy data)reconnaissance and buoy data)

Weather Forecast Office Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu, HI(WFO) Honolulu, HIServices Services (Local and National Programs)(Local and National Programs)

• Public (Hawaiian Islands)Public (Hawaiian Islands)• Marine (Coastal and Offshore waters)Marine (Coastal and Offshore waters)• Aviation Terminal forecasts, en-route significant Aviation Terminal forecasts, en-route significant

weather)weather)• Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air

“balloon”)“balloon”)• Central Pacific Hurricane Center/CPHC (140W-180)Central Pacific Hurricane Center/CPHC (140W-180)• Marine Waters/Ocean Prediction Center (High Seas)Marine Waters/Ocean Prediction Center (High Seas)• Aviation/Aviation Weather Center (SIGMETS)Aviation/Aviation Weather Center (SIGMETS)

Regional Areas of Responsibility - Regional Areas of Responsibility - HonoluluHonoluluCentral Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)…RedCentral Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)…RedMarine Warnings/OPC (High Seas)…BlueMarine Warnings/OPC (High Seas)…BlueAviation Warnings (SIGMETS)…YellowAviation Warnings (SIGMETS)…Yellow

140W180 (CPHC)

(Marine area)

(Aviation)

25S

120W157E

EQ

130E

20N

Weather Forecast Office Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Tiyan, Guam (WFO) Tiyan, Guam

ServicesServices• Public (Marianas, Micronesian main islands)Public (Marianas, Micronesian main islands)• Marine (coastal waters to 45 miles)Marine (coastal waters to 45 miles)• Aviation (terminal forecasts, en-route Aviation (terminal forecasts, en-route

significant weather)significant weather)• Tropical Cyclone (local warnings for 37 Tropical Cyclone (local warnings for 37

islands/atolls), Issue Public Advisories*.islands/atolls), Issue Public Advisories*.• Hazardous/Severe Weather (flood, wind, surf)Hazardous/Severe Weather (flood, wind, surf)• Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air

“balloon”)“balloon”)• Fire WeatherFire Weather

Area of Responsibility Area of Responsibility

Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Tiyan, GuamWeather Forecast Office (WFO) Tiyan, Guam • United States: GU, CNMI (Saipan)United States: GU, CNMI (Saipan)• International: Palau, FSM (Chuuk,Pohnpei), MarshallsInternational: Palau, FSM (Chuuk,Pohnpei), Marshalls

4.7 million sq mi

Number of Typhoons within 180, 120 and 60 Number of Typhoons within 180, 120 and 60 Nautical Miles of (Saipan)-by Month, 1945-2002Nautical Miles of (Saipan)-by Month, 1945-2002

Within 180 NM: 61 typhoons in 54 years = 1.1 Within 180 NM: 61 typhoons in 54 years = 1.1 per yearper year

Within 120 NM: 39 typhoons in 54 years = 0.7 Within 120 NM: 39 typhoons in 54 years = 0.7 per yearper year

Within 60 NM: 19 typhoons in 54 years = 0.35 Within 60 NM: 19 typhoons in 54 years = 0.35 per yearper year

NOTE: Includes Super Typhoons

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

F M A M J J A S O N D J

Occ

urre

nces

180 NM 120 NM 60 NM

Which Ocean Surface Vector Winds (SVW) do we use?

- Scatterometer - Windsat? - SSMI? - Cloud vector winds?

QuikSCAT WindSAT QuikSCAT WindSAT TRMMTRMM TD 02E TD 02EWindsat

ACCESS to

Scatterometer DATA

OPC - QuikSCAT

Winds available in N-AWIPS1.5 to 2.5 hours after pass time

25 km resolution winds in AWIPS

12.5 km winds on in N-AWIPS

Use most recent passes in surface analysis and warning process

Highest winds observed – 95 knots

North Atlantic – January 20, 2002

(previously observed 80 knots)

From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

Use of Scatterometer winds from Use of Scatterometer winds from NMAP on N-NMAP on N-AWIPsAWIPs

WFO Honolulu only (analysis tool)WFO Honolulu only (analysis tool)

Hand Analysis of Scatterometer winds at WFO GuamHand Analysis of Scatterometer winds at WFO Guam (Analysis ability not available on Guam AWIPS) (Analysis ability not available on Guam AWIPS)

QuikSCAT (SeaWinds) QuikSCAT (SeaWinds) SCATTEROMERSCATTEROMER

DAILY COVERAGEDAILY COVERAGE(90%/day)(90%/day)

QUIKSCAT (Ascending ~ 6AM)

From:NOAA/NESDIS

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

Guam Guam

QUIKSCAT (Descending ~ 6PM)

Available Approx +2 ½ hr after overhead

~8:30 AM/PM

NAVY: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil (PUBLIC ACCESS)

(FNMOC –GFS/NOGAPS solutions)

X up to 72 hours

Model Comparisons: (AVN versus NOGAPS)Model Comparisons: (AVN versus NOGAPS)Search strategySearch strategy: Bogus versus no-Bogus center?: Bogus versus no-Bogus center?

FNMOC (NRT-AVN) vs. FNMOC (NOGAPS) Wind Solutions

No CirculationCirculationCenter

FNMOC- FNMOC-

‘Finaled’

-AVN

NOAA/NESDIS Storm Page (3-NOAA/NESDIS Storm Page (3-views)views)

Wind Vectors

Ambiguity Solutions

o V-pol forward

NRCS

(2 deg grid)

New Views from FNMOC TC New Views from FNMOC TC PagePageQuikSCAT AQuikSCAT Additions: AVN-NRT, NOGAPS, AMBdditions: AVN-NRT, NOGAPS, AMB

QuikSCAT on the WFO Guam Web Page

Analyses Requiring

Ocean SVW DATA

Streamline Analysis - Greater detail possible with QUIKSCAT data

Pacific Surface Analysis using QuikSCAT Winds

From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

Hurricane Force Winds

Obtaining Gale and Hurricane-force Winds from Scatterometer

From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

(NOAA/NESDIS View)Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean

Scat ambiguities within monsoon trough axis

Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean

-Contribution to theOcean wave model

Typhoon Sonca

Dispersion

Fetch and Period

Amplitude/Period

TyphoonSwell Calculation

Guam

WFO Guam Watches and Warnings WFO Guam Watches and Warnings CriteriaCriteria

• Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.winds are possible within 48 hours.

• A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. mph or more) are possible within 48 hours.

Determining light wind regions with the NRCS DATA

QuikSCAT as a forensic tool

USCG requested assistance for accident investigation

Ferry sinking in Red Sea

QuikSCAT played substantial role

Winds available in data sparse areas

Confidence in data

Easily accessible archive

From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

Satellite winds in knots valid

2 Feb 2006 at 1531 UTC

Uses with Tropical Cyclone Analysis (primarily done manually) (requires extensive ‘training’)

-Positioning-Movement-Intensity (obtaining a ‘min’ maximum)-Wind radii-Extratropical Transition-Genesis

(NAVY View)

Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean

Yap

Palau

Typhoon Sudal (03W)April 5, 2004

“Key” 2- and 3- way solutions near center

Hand Analysis of tropical cyclone region using Hand Analysis of tropical cyclone region using Scatterometer ambiguities at WFO GuamScatterometer ambiguities at WFO Guam

Overlays from NRL TC PageOverlays from NRL TC PageFNMOC (AVN) QuikSCAT Data OverlaysFNMOC (AVN) QuikSCAT Data Overlays

(Vis/IR/MI)(Vis/IR/MI) - Winds - Ambiguities - NRCS- Winds - Ambiguities - NRCS

Eye

Along-scan winds

Create dark bandToward-scan

wind

NORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTIONNORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTION

Reasons for delayed intensification (multi-circulation interaction)

QuikSCAT NRCS

Scat winds overlay over NRCS and 37Ghz data

--Look for low wind and low rain region

Determination of TC Wind radii

OverlayOverlay QuikSCAT winds and QuikSCAT winds and ambiguities over MI - 37Ghz ambiguities over MI - 37Ghz

imageryimagery

X

35kt

35kt

50kt

65kt+

Wind Radii along edge of swathWind Radii along edge of swath

Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean- Wind radii (with microwave imagery) Typhoon Nabi

Palau

Yap

TD 01W

X – False Location

Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean--Helping find difficult tropical cyclone positions/genesis

Monsoon Trough

Tropical Storm 01W

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

130.0 131.0 132.0 133.0 134.0 135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.0 143.0 144.0 145.0

Longitude

Latit

ude

Koror

Sonsorol

Kayangel

Break-out TCBreak-out TC(failed)(failed)

TD 01WTD 01W Monsoon Dep 01WMonsoon Dep 01WJTWC Best TrackJTWC Best Track

HURRICANE CINDYHURRICANE CINDY——Extratropical TransitionExtratropical TransitionQuikSCAT WindsQuikSCAT Winds

Tropical Tropical Extratropical TransitionExtratropical Transition Extratropical Extratropical28/09Z 31/21Z 04/08Z28/09Z 31/21Z 04/08Z115kt 50kt115kt 50kt

Purple/Black > 40kt Red > 30kt Yellow > 20ktPurple/Black > 40kt Red > 30kt Yellow > 20kt

Extratropical Transition Extratropical Transition IntensityIntensity

Large Eye/Eyewall CycleLarge Eye/Eyewall Cycle

Scatterometer Analysis over Scatterometer Analysis over Tropical Cyclone: Tropical Cyclone:

ConclusionsConclusions• Coverage is excellent, virtually catching entire life Coverage is excellent, virtually catching entire life cycles of Tropical Cyclones cycles of Tropical Cyclones

• Excellent verification for wind speeds outside of rain-Excellent verification for wind speeds outside of rain-affected light wind regionsaffected light wind regions

• Wind signal appears (is) ‘good’ in excess of 60-80kt Wind signal appears (is) ‘good’ in excess of 60-80kt in NRT in NRT

• Rain flag procedure clearly overestimated in the Rain flag procedure clearly overestimated in the current NRT (MUDH) approach! USE the ambiguity current NRT (MUDH) approach! USE the ambiguity solutions to determine the ‘true’ rain effect on the solutions to determine the ‘true’ rain effect on the wind vector cell wind vector cell

• Tropical cyclone center positions, a ‘min’ wind Tropical cyclone center positions, a ‘min’ wind intensity, and the outer wind structure can all be intensity, and the outer wind structure can all be obtained with knowledge of the ambiguity selection obtained with knowledge of the ambiguity selection procedure and understanding the ‘true’ effect on procedure and understanding the ‘true’ effect on rain. rain.

• Always try to combine with other data/ Always try to combine with other data/ reconnaissance tools!reconnaissance tools!

Comments/Comments/Discussion?Discussion?