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Interpretation of indicators in industry. Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata. Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero , 2014, San José, Costa Rica. Overall trends Analysis by branch Effect of structural changes . Contents. Overall trends - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Interpretation of indicators in industry
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
Out
line
1. Overall trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes
Contents
1. Overall trendsa. Energy consumption, value added and production index , (2000-2010)
selection of period of analysisb. Energy intensity of industry and manufacturing (annual variation by period)
c. Breakdown of consumption by industrial branch (2000 - 2010) (for the 5 main branches)
Trends in energy consumption and value added in industry: case of Chile
Trends in energy consumption and value added (2000=100)
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Indi
ce 2
000=
100
Consumo Energía Industria Valor agregado Industria Valor Agregado Manufactura
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
industry= manufacturing + mining + construction
Trends in energy intensity of industry: identification of homogeneous periods for analysis: case of Chile
Energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
koe/
k$20
03
Intensidad Industria Intensidad Manufactura Intensidad Minería
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2000-2005 2005-2010 2000-2011
Intensidad Industria Intensidad Manufactura Intensidad Minería
Trends in energy intensity of industry: analysis by period : case of Chile
Annual variation in energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining (%/year)
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
1990-1999 1999-2001 2001-2007 2007-2009 2009-2012 1990-2012
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.6%
-0.8%
1.2%
-1.7%
1.4%0.9%
1990-1999: inflation control and economic development in Brazil 1999-2001: significant decrease (electricity crisis and rationing) 2001-2007: recovery period and new projects in industry 2007-2009: impacts of the global economic crisis) 2009-2012: large projects for steel, bauxite, alumina and pulp production
Source: EPE
Choice of period for analysis: case of Brazil
Trends in energy intensity of manufacturing industry: analysis by period : case of Brazil
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
8
28%
1%12%
9%6%6%
30%
9%
2012Food
Textile
Paper
Chemicals
Cement
Ceramics
Primary metals includ-ing iron-alloys
Other manufacturing
21%2%
11%11%
6%5%
35%
9%
2000
Energy consumption of manufacturing by sub-sector in Brazil
Increasing relative share of food industry: sugar, processed and frozen products; Decreasing share of primary metals and chemicals (less investments and more imports)
Source: BIEE EPE
Breakdown of the energy consumption by industrial branch: case of Brazil
Out
line
1. Main trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes
10
Objective:o Show trends in energy efficiency by focusing on main
energy intensive products (cement, steel, paper, copper,etc..)
o Show trends in energy intensities by sub-sector (textiles, chemicals, food,etc..).
Contento Specific consumption of energy-intensive products
(cement, steel, paper) o Energy intensity by branch (2000 and 2010);
Content
Specific energy consumption of energy intensive products: case of Chile
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Toe/
ton
Intensidad Papel y celulosa Intensidad Acero Intensidad Cemento Intensidad Cobre
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
Specific energy consumption (toe/ton)
Copper is very intensive in Chile and its specific energy consumption is increasing due to less concentrated oresUsing a double scale or showing each product separately enables to better see the trends by product
Steel0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
1990 2000 2010 2012
toe/
tonn
eSpecific energy consumption of steel in Brazil
Decreasing specific energy consumption of steel
12
Source: EPESource: BIEE/EPE
13
Decreasing specific energy consumption of cement until 2010
Cement 0.0000.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.100
1990 2000 2010 2012
toe/
tonn
e
Source: BIEE/EPE
Specific energy consumption of cement in Brazil
14Medener
Food Textile Wood PaperChemicals
Non metallic mineralsMachinery
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
2000 2010
Energy intensity by branch (unit koe per € 2000) (Uruguay)
Increases in the energy intensity of all branches in Uruguay
Source: BIEE, MIEM/ DNE
Trends in the energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Uruguay
Out
line
1. Main trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes
16
Objectives: Analyze the effect of changes in industrial specialization on
the energy intensity (role of structural effects), first at the manufacturing level and for industry as whole
Content:o Change in industrial structure: breakdown of value
added by branch (2000 and 2010);o Relative levels of energy intensity of the brancheso Intensity at constant structure
Content
Structural changes in manufacturing industry: case of Chile
Value added structure by industrial branch in Chile
29%
6%
7%
10%
27%
8%
13%
2000
32%
4%
6%
12%
25%
8%
13%
2011Alimentos, bebidas y
tabaco
Textil, prendas de vestir y cuero
Maderas y muebles
Papel e imprentas
Química, petróleo, caucho y plástico
Minerales no metálicos y metálica básica
Productos metálicos, maquinaria y equipos y otros
Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile
18Medener
Paper
Non metallic minerals WoodChemicals Food Textile
Machinery02468
101214161820
2010
Energy intensity by branch (relative value: machinery=1) (Uruguay)
Paper and non metallic minerals are 15 to 20 times more energy intensive than machinery in UruguayFood, textile and chemicals very similar ~ 4 times more energy intensive than machinery
Relative levels of energy intensity by branch
Calculation of an intensity at constant structure to measure the impact of structural changes in industry or manufacturing
19
To quantify the impact of structural changes on the energy intensity of manufacturing industry, the usual approach is to calculate a fictive energy intensity at constant structure, i.e. assuming that the structure did not change compared to a base year (e.g. 2000).
This intensity at constant structure is calculated at year t with the sectoral intensities of year t and the value added structure of manufacturing (i.e. the share of each sub-sector i in the total value added of manufacturing of the base year 0):
IEs = (VAi/VA)o * (Ei/VAi)t with : IEs : intensity at constant structure VAi: value added of sub-sector i; VA: total value added of manufacturing; Ei: energy consumption of sub-sector i; o :base year (e.g. 2000) and t: current year
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20110.0040
0.0060
0.0080
0.0100
0.0120
0.0140
0.0160
0.0180
ManufacturingManufacturing at constant structure
Energy intensity of manufacturing: observed and at constant structure in Uruguay
Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after2007, strong impact
Source: MIEM/DNE
Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay
effects of structural changes
1997-2007 2007-2011-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
ManufacturingManufacturing at constant structureEffect of structural changes
Energy intensity of manufacturing
Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after2007, around 40% of the increase is due to structural changes (ie 6/16%)
Source: MIEM/DNE
Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay : summary by period
40%
2000 20120%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
27% 32%
33% 29%
13% 14%8% 12%
9% 6%
Food products, beverages and tobacco Chemicals, Chemical products and man-made fibres Non-metallic mineral products Basic metals (steel+non ferrous) + ferroalloys Textile and textile products Pulp, Paper and Paper products; publishing and printing
Share of industry value added by branch
Source: EPE
Change in industry value added structure : structural changes : case of Brazil Decreasing share of chemicals and paper but increasing share of food and to a lesser extent of non metallic minerals and basis metals
Food Textile PaperChemicals
Non metallic mineralsPrimary metals
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
2000 2010
ktoe
/€$
[200
0]
Energy intensity by branch
The branch “primary metals” has the highest energy intensity; it is 13 times more intensive
than textiles , followed by paper and pulp ( factor 9 compared to textiles), food and non
metallic minerals (factor 4)
Source: EPE
Energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Brazil
24
-0.40%0.00%0.40%0.80%
2000-2010
2000-2010
Structural changes towards less intensive branches contributed to limit around 50% of the intensity increase
Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Brazil