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Regional Climate Change over Southeast Asia Region. Mohan Kumar Sammathuria, Ling Leong Kwok & Wan Azli Wan Hassan Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation, Malaysia. International Seminar On Climate Variability, Change and Extreme Weather Events - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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International Seminar On Climate Variability, Change and Extreme Weather Events
26-27 February 2008, Bangi, MALAYSIA
Regional Climate Change over Southeast Asia Region
Mohan Kumar Sammathuria, Ling Leong Kwok & Wan Azli Wan Hassan
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation, Malaysia
SCOPE
• Introduction
• Present Climate (1961-1990)
• Future Climate (2071-2100)– Mean Temp (annual & seasonal) Anomaly– Mean Precip (annual & seasonal) Anomaly– Seasonal Mean Wind Anomaly
• Concluding Remarks
PRECIS 50 kmPRECIS 50 km
GCMs to
Regional Adaptive Responses:
Modelling Path
GCMs to
Regional Adaptive Responses:
Modelling Path
Projected climate change depend on illustrative scenarios (storylines) of greenhouse gases
emissions: Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
Based on different plausible pathways of future:
development of the world
population growth and consumption patterns
standards and life style of living
energy consumption & energy sources (e.g. fossil fuel usage)
technology change
land use change
Four Marker IPCC’s SRES Future Emission Four Marker IPCC’s SRES Future Emission ScenariosScenarios
A qualitative description of the SRES scenarios
The driving model HadCM3 has predict climate change (global temperature rise) arising from each of the four IPCC’s SRES future emissions scenarios
The driving model HadCM3 has predict climate change (global temperature rise) arising from each of the four IPCC’s SRES future emissions scenarios
~5.0oC
~2.0oC
IPCC AR4
B1: 1.8oC (1.1-2.9)
B2: 2.4oC (1.4-3.8)
A2: 3.4oC (2.0-5.4)
A1FI: 4.0oC (2.4-6.4)
~5.0oC
~2.0oC
IPCC AR4
B1: 1.8oC (1.1-2.9)
B2: 2.4oC (1.4-3.8)
A2: 3.4oC (2.0-5.4)
A1FI: 4.0oC (2.4-6.4)
PRECIS• Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies• High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-
surface boundaries by output from HadCM• PRECIS runs on Linux PC (horizontal resolutions: 50 x 50 & 25 x 25
km).• Needs data for the selected domain on lateral boundary conditions
(LBC) from the driving GCM (e.g., HadCM3/ HadAM3) and the associated ancillary files (e.g., sea surface temp, vegetation, topography, etc).
• Hadley Centre, UK has been providing PRECIS as well as the driving data to several regional groups.
• Baseline (1961-90), A2 & B2 scenarios (2071-2100). Reanalysis-driven runs provide comprehensive regional data sets representing current conditions, which can assist model evaluation as well as assessment of vulnerability to current climate variability.
• Ensembles to estimate model-related uncertainties.
PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44°
HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75°
Orography Resolution
PRECIS Runs at MMD• LBCs derived from HadAM3P. HadCM3 provided SST as boundary
conditions for HadAM3P.• A2 & B2 scenarios runs of PRECIS performed consecutively on a PC.• PRECIS runs on Linux PC (horizontal resolutions: 0.44° x 0.44°)• The LBCs have a length of 31 years, and are available for Baseline
(1961-90), A2 & B2 scenarios (2071-2100), with the sulphur cycle.• The basic parameters analyzed are the mean surface (1.5 m) temp and
total precip.• The precip & temp obs data (CRU20, 1961-90) is used to validate
model performance in simulating current climate.• The analysis comprised of both annual mean and seasonal mean for
DJF, MAM, JJA and SON.• To detect possible atmospheric circulation change during monsoon
periods (DJF & JJA) in future climate, the seasonal mean 850 hPa wind for the lower emission scenario (B2) was analysed.
PRECIS captures important regional
information on summer monsoon rainfall missing
in its parent GCM simulations
PRECIS performs reasonably well too on
winter monsoon rainfall compared to its parent
GCM simulations
PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990)Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/d
ay
)
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
27
27.5
28
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Observed ppt (1961-90)
Baseline ppt (1961-90)
Observed temp (1961-90)
Baseline temp (1961-90)
PRECIS Simulations of Future Climate (2071-2100)Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/d
ay
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Baseline ppt (1961-90)A2 ppt (2071-2100)B2 ppt (2071-2100)Baseline temp (1961-90)A2 temp (2071-2100)B2 temp (2071-2100)
Mean Annual Temp Anomaly
Continental –– larger +ve anomaly (A2, 3.0-4.5 °C; B2, 1.5-3.0 °C)
Larger anomaly over SCS vs western Pacific in A2
c-S P. Malaysia, Sabah & Sarawak –– Larger +ve anomaly
N-E P. Malaysia –– Smaller +ve anomaly
Maritime –– smaller +ve anomaly (A2, 2.0-3.5 °C; B2, 0.5-1.5 °C)
(A2-Baseline) Mean Seasonal Temperature AnomalyMAM
SON
DJF
JJA
(B2-Baseline) Mean Seasonal Temperature Anomaly
SONJJA
DJF MAM
-7% -12%Precip deficit over maritime SEA
Mean Annual Precip Anomaly
Northern P. Malaysia (A2, 17%; B2, 6%)
Southern P. Malaysia (A2, -3%; B2, -20%) Sabah (A2, -15%; B2, -18%)
Sarawak (A2, 5%; B2, -8%)
A2 (%) B2 (%)
DJF -5 -21
MAM -21 -24
JJA -8 -13
SON 1 -9
SEA Mean Seasonal Precip
Anomaly
Deficit in most seasons
Larger deficit in B2
(A2-Baseline) Mean Precip (%)
JJA -8%
MAM -21%DJF -5%
SON +1%
(B2-Baseline) Mean Precip (%)
JJA -13%
DJF -21%
SON -9%
MAM -24%
Reg DJF MAM JJA SON ANNUAL
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
PM -15 -31 -9 -18 14 -1 19 9 5 -7
SBH -34 -35 -36 -32 2 -3 2 -9 -15 -18
SRWK -14 -25 9 -2 18 1 11 -4 5 -8
NPM -17 -25 1 -11 38 21 27 18 17 6
EPM -7 -30 -17 -24 17 4 20 9 6 -7
CPM -29 -39 -5 -10 12 5 16 14 1 -5
SPM -19 -37 -6 -20 -7 -25 15 -1 -3 -20
SEA -5 -21 -21 -24 -8 -13 1 -9 -7 -12
Malaysia – NEGATIVE ANOMALY mean precip in DJF
Mean Seasonal Precip
Anomaly
Reg DJF MAM JJA SON ANNUAL
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
PM -15 -31 -9 -18 14 -1 19 9 5 -7
SBH -34 -35 -36 -32 2 -3 2 -9 -15 -18
SRWK -14 -25 9 -2 18 1 11 -4 5 -8
NPM -17 -25 1 -11 38 21 27 18 17 6
EPM -7 -30 -17 -24 17 4 20 9 6 -7
CPM -29 -39 -5 -10 12 5 16 14 1 -5
SPM -19 -37 -6 -20 -7 -25 15 -1 -3 -20
SEA -5 -21 -21 -24 -8 -13 1 -9 -7 -12
Mean Seasonal Precip
Anomaly
Northern P. Malaysia – POSITIVE ANOMALY mean precip in JJA & SON, deficit in DJF & MAM
Reg DJF MAM JJA SON ANNUAL
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
PM -15 -31 -9 -18 14 -1 19 9 5 -7
SBH -34 -35 -36 -32 2 -3 2 -9 -15 -18
SRWK -14 -25 9 -2 18 1 11 -4 5 -8
NPM -17 -25 1 -11 38 21 27 18 17 6
EPM -7 -30 -17 -24 17 4 20 9 6 -7
CPM -29 -39 -5 -10 12 5 16 14 1 -5
SPM -19 -37 -6 -20 -7 -25 15 -1 -3 -20
SEA -5 -21 -21 -24 -8 -13 1 -9 -7 -12
Mean Seasonal Precip
Anomaly
Southern P. Malaysia – deficit mean precip in DJF, MAM & JJA, +ve anomaly in SON
Reg DJF MAM JJA SON ANNUAL
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
A2 (%)
B2 (%)
PM -15 -31 -9 -18 14 -1 19 9 5 -7
SBH -34 -35 -36 -32 2 -3 2 -9 -15 -18SRWK -14 -25 9 -2 18 1 11 -4 5 -8NPM -17 -25 1 -11 38 21 27 18 17 6
EPM -7 -30 -17 -24 17 4 20 9 6 -7
CPM -29 -39 -5 -10 12 5 16 14 1 -5
SPM -19 -37 -6 -20 -7 -25 15 -1 -3 -20
SEA -5 -21 -21 -24 -8 -13 1 -9 -7 -12
Sabah – largest deficit in DJF & MAM
Sarawak – DJF only
Mean Seasonal Precip
Anomaly
Baseline
Weakening easterly (2.0-3.5 m/s)
Mean Seasonal 850 hPa Wind Anomaly (DJF)
Rainfall Anomaly
Anomaly
Mean Seasonal 850 hPa Wind Anomaly (JJA)
Rainfall Anomaly
Baseline Anomaly
Anomalous easterly comp. (1.5-2.5 m/s)
Concluding Remarks• PRECIS was found able to capture important
regional information on seasonal rainfall which is missing in GCM simulation
• Both A2 & B2 scenarios show an increase in the annual mean temp over SEA during 2071-2100, with A2 shows larger increase in temp
• The SEA land surface annual mean warming is in the range of 1.5-3.0 °C with B2 and 3.0-4.5 °C with A2
• The SEA maritime surface annual mean warming is 0.5-1.5 °C with B2 and 2.0-3.5 °C with A2
Concluding Remarks (cont.)
• Both scenarios show a +ve anomaly of mean annual precip over SEA continent while a -ve anomaly over maritime region
• SEA, at large will experience a deficit in mean annual precipitation for both A2 and B2 scenarios, with B2 giving the larger deficit
• Weakening of the easterly during the winter months (DJF) over the western Pacific region in B2 scenarios indicates a weakening of the NE monsoon in SEA region
• In summer (JJA), the anomalous easterly component winds over the Indian Ocean will tend to enhance the +ve IOD phenomenon
Concluding Remarks (cont.)
This is our preliminary results.More works are needed to obtain
credible climate change scenarios with better certainty…..
Concluding Remarks (cont.)
This is our preliminary results.More works are needed to obtain
credible climate change scenarios with better certainty…..
IPCC’s AR4 employed multi-model means of surface warming for the SRES marker scenarios. Numbers indicate the number of models which have been run for a given scenario. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the SRES marker scenarios.RCM (e.g. PRECIS), too, should be driven by multi-model in order to know
the uncertainty range of climate change
IPCC’s AR4 employed multi-model means of surface warming for the SRES marker scenarios. Numbers indicate the number of models which have been run for a given scenario. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the SRES marker scenarios.RCM (e.g. PRECIS), too, should be driven by multi-model in order to know
the uncertainty range of climate change
Note:
Multi-Model IPCC AR4
Uncertainty Ranges
B1: 1.8oC (1.1 - 2.9)
A1T: 2.4oC (1.4 - 3.8)
B2: 2.4oC (1.4 - 3.8)
A1B: 2.8oC (1.7 - 4.4)
A2: 3.4oC (2.0 - 5.4)
A1F1: 4.0oC (2.4 - 6.4)
Note:
Multi-Model IPCC AR4
Uncertainty Ranges
B1: 1.8oC (1.1 - 2.9)
A1T: 2.4oC (1.4 - 3.8)
B2: 2.4oC (1.4 - 3.8)
A1B: 2.8oC (1.7 - 4.4)
A2: 3.4oC (2.0 - 5.4)
A1F1: 4.0oC (2.4 - 6.4)
Thank You