International SecurityHas Globalization tried to kill you today?

By: Jason Krause, Alexandria White, and Jonathan D’Angelo

Is Globalization related to Security?U.S. post Cold War Interventions and Firefox 3

Correlation?

As stated in class, one sign of globalization is free access to information, mainly via the Internet.

Firefox is a popular free open source Internet Browser alternative to Microsoft Internet Explorer.

Firefox is installed on all ECU Campus PCs

Firefox 3 was released for download June 17th 2008

Downloads of Firefox 3(Red=highest volume, Gray/Blue=lowest volume)

Map of U.S. Forces Deployed 1990-2003 (Exercises and Humanitarian Operations excluded)

Inside the dotted line (known as the Non-integrating Gap) is 1/3rd of World Population and 95% of the Terrorism, Genocide, and

Child Soldiers

U.S. Forces Deployments and Firefox 3 Downloads maps combined…Does Globalization = Stability?

Map from Eaves.ca, 3 days older than 1st download map, hence the difference in volume.

Is Globalization good or bad for International Security?

Short Term: Bad, why?•Exploitation of Labor•Struggle for resources•Corruption•Cultural issues (Religion)•Increased struggle between Have vs Have-Not (Somali Pirates attacking cargo ships, more on this later…)•Terrorism

Long Term: Good, why?•Increased stability•Growth of a Middle-Class•Increased demand for good/services•Increased demand for government accountability•Democracy•Massive incentive not to screw it up (China)

Example from history of two “crazy” countries…

Berlin, Germany 1945

Tokyo, Japan 1945

Berlin, Germany 2009

Tokyo, Japan 2009

Can history repeat?Baghdad, Iraq

2009

Kabul, Afghanistan 2009

?

?

Elephants in the RoomRussia China

U.S. Air Force F/A-22 Raptor escorting a Russian

Air Force Tu-95 Bomber near Alaska in the Fall of

2007

Chinese People’s Liberation Army

Conflict that Could Derail Globalization?

US v. Russia over Georgia?US v. China over Taiwan?

Motives: Economic & militarily driven Projection of Power Test Western Societies

Emerging Trends of Military Significance

The Global Village PhenomenaCultural Change With Security ImplicationsEconomic DeterminismPolitical DeconflictionSocietal ConcernsRegional RenegadesEthno-Linguistic Pan-NationalismCritical Uncertainties

Conditions which Threaten U.S. National Interests

Adverse Ideology to democracy Democratic Peace Theory

Denial of access to resources and markets What are you hiding?

Regional instability Susceptibility to conflict

Military threats/weapons proliferation Non-compliant Competitors

EX: China?Renegade Adversaries

EX: Iran, N. Korea

China: Rising World Hegemonic Power?China-US RelationsChinese military

growing defense spending. force projection, logistics, training, command and control Total People’s Liberation Army Members 2.3 million (2003)

Weapons Development Purchasing modern military equipment

SA-10 systems, SU-27 Fighters and Kilo submarines from Russia

Nuclear Proliferation Selling nuclear technology and Information to Renegade

advisoriesCould China Assume the Role & Responsibility as Global

Hegemony?

New Era of Threat:Technological/Electronic Intelligence

Nuclearization Information and Cybernetic WarfareElectromagnetic warfare Applied Automation Precision Munitions Medium and long range missiles Weaponized chemical capability Advanced barrier technologies Electrochemical weaponsAnti-missile technologies and Denial (C3D2) Anti-aircraft technologies Hyperspectral Sensors Techno-terrorism Brilliant sensors and all-source fusion Technology-aided espionage

Effects of Terrorism on a Global Economy

The direct effects of the attack on September 11 the US: $34 billion in uninsured damage from the World Trade Centers, $576 million in damage to the Pentagon $7 was billion paid out in victim compensation

279,000 jobs were lost as a result of a slowing economy due to 9/11US has spent $53 billion in homeland security and counterterrorism

efforts within our bordersWorld economy lost $300 billion potential growth in 2001 and 2002

due toThe global economy went from a 4.1% growth rate in 2000 to a 1.4%

growth rate in 2001The US national average for insurance rates increased 5%, and about

30% in Europe International shipping and travel costs increasedTourism industry heavily impacted

Pakistan and it’s Nuclear WeaponsPakistan's motive for a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat

posed by its rival IndiaCurrently India has superior conventional forces and nuclear weaponsPakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine President Musharraf said that Pakistan does not want a conflict with India,

but…Pakistan refuses to sign the Non-Proliferation TreatyConsequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities are under IAEA

regulation or subject to inspection It is estimated that Pakistan has built 24-55 uranium based nuclear weaponsPakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade

plutonium

History of Pakistan’s Nuclear ProgramPakistan's nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar

Ali BhuttoBhutto founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and

Natural Resources, he later became President and Prime Minister of Pakistan

After the loss of East Pakistan in 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972

The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced Pakistans development of the nuclear bomb

By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan Known as the “father of the Islamic bomb” Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist Worked at the classified URENCO uranium

enrichment plant in the Netherlands Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen

uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. He and was put in charge of building, equipping and

operating Pakistan's Kahuta facility Under Khan's direction, Pakistan had an extensive

clandestine network In 1986 Pakistan was thought to have produced

enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon According to Pakistan the nation acquired the ability

to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987 Currently Dr. Khan is considered a proliferation risk

for selling nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya and Iran

What if?What if terrorists acquired a Nuclear weapon

would see the same effects on the global economy we saw on 9/11?

A little bit of good newsPakistan has relatively “small” nuclear weaponsPakistan claims to have tested a 25-36 kiloton bomb in

1998, outside sources say it was closer to 9-12 kilotons1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT1 Mega ton equals 1,000,000 tonsNagasaki was 20 kilotons Largest bombs are 50 megatonsOnly tested uranium based bombs, never detonated a

larger plutonium bombOutside sources claim Pakistan's weapons are relatively

secureTakes after the US model of layered security

Possible bright spot for cooperation?Somali Privacy and the global response

Somali Pirates are responsible for numerous attacks on private and commercial ships off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden.

In response to this and other regional maritime security concerns the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet formed Combined Task Force 151.

CTF 151 is an international naval task force which is responsible for maritime security from the horn of Africa and Gulf of Aden.

Participating countries include Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Pakistan, Portugal, Spain, Singapore, Turkey, the UK, the US.

The current Commander of CTF 151 is Turkish Navy Rear Admiral Caner Bener

Russia and China (major shift in PLA’s focus) also have ships in the area however are operating independently.

Turkish

Special Forces part of CTF15

1

Thomas P.M. Barnett video…Ph.D Harvard in Political Science Center for Naval Analysis

Contributed to the U.S. Navy’s major post-Cold War doctrine white paper “…From the Sea”

Professor at the Naval War College New Rule Sets Project (Wall Street CEOs and Military Flag Officers looking into Y2K’s

possible ripple effects on IPE, findings were almost identical 9/11’s ripple effects a few years later).

Assistant for Strategic Futures, Office of Force Transformation, Dept of Defense (hired to come up with an “unofficial” Grand Strategy post-9/11).

Author of three books: The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating Great Powers: America & The World After Bush

Barnett’s 2008 article in Esquire led the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Fallon to resign over comments made about Bush’s Iran policy.

Opinion of his research ranges between absolutely brilliant to absolutely insane, you decide…

Thomas P.M. Barnett’s A-Z rule set for Politically Bankrupt States2005 TED TALK Clip (Barnett’s full presentation at the National Defense

University is 3 hours long and available on C-SPAN or Youtube)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbmseFaZb9Q