Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
International Negotiation on International Negotiation on ggClimate Change: Climate Change:
Current Status and FutureCurrent Status and Future
13 February 2012
International WS on Co‐benefit @IGES, Hayama@ , y
Michihiro OIOffice of International Strategy on Climate ChangeOffice of International Strategy on Climate Change
Ministry of the Environment1
UNFCCC COP17UNFCCC COP17
From 28 Nov. to 11 Dec. 2011 (extended one and a half days)Ministerial meeting from 6 to 11 December
Held at Durban, South Africa
Participated more than 15,000 people from 193 countries, international organizations and NGOs
2
C O P C M P（COP/MOP）
Background (1) Climate Change NegotiationBackground (1) Climate Change NegotiationC O P
（UNFCCC）
AWG LCA （Ad hoc Working SBI (SB for Implementation) AWG KP （Ad hoc Working
C M P（COP/MOP）（Kyoto Protocol）
AWG‐LCA （Ad‐hoc Working Group on Long‐term
Cooperative Action under the Convention）
SBI (SB for Implementation)SBSTA (SB for Scientific and
Technological Advice)
AWG‐KP （Ad‐hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the
Kyoto Protocol）
year COP Venue UNFCCC KP
1992 Rio de Janeirro signed UNFCCC at the UNCED
1995 COP1 Berlin Adoption of the Berlin Mandate1995 COP1 Berlin Adoption of the Berlin Mandate
1997 COP3 Kyoto Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol Adoption
2005.2 Entry into force
COP11/ M lAWG-KP
2005.12COP11/CMP1
Montreal, Canada
Dialogue AWG‐KP establishment
2007COP13/CMP3
Bali, IndonesiaBali Action Plan（AWG‐LCA establishment）
（AWG‐KP extension）
AWG-LCA
（ ）
2009COP15/CMP5
Copenhagen, Denmark
Copenhagen Accord (taken note)（AWG‐LCA extension）
（AWG‐KP further extension）
2010COP16/
Cancun MexicoCancun Agreement
3
2010CMP6
Cancun, Mexico(AWG‐LCA extention)
2011COP17/CMP7
Durban, SouthAfrica
? ?3
Global Average Temperature rise above the Pre‐Industrial Levels
Background (2) The Global GoalBackground (2) The Global Goal
2 degree is the current globally agreed target (by Copenhagen and Cancun)
Global Emissions reduction by 2050, peaking??
No globally agreed target.
G8 agreed: 50% reduction globally, with 80 % cut by developed country by 2050
and global peaking out ASAPand global peaking out ASAP.
C
CO2-equivalent concentration (ppm)
at stabilization Peaking year for CO2Change in global CO2
i i i 2050
Global average temperature increase above pre-industrialCategory at stabilization
including GHGs and aerosols
(2005=375ppm)
Peaking year for CO2 emissions
emissions in 2050(percent of 2000 emissions)
increase above pre industrial at equilibrium, using best
estimate climate sensitivity
Ⅰ 445 490 2000 2015 85 t 50 2 0 2 4Ⅰ 445-490 2000-2015 -85 to -50 2.0 – 2.4
Ⅱ 490-535 2000-2020 -60 to -30 2.4 – 2.8
Ⅲ 535 590 2010 2030 30 t 5 2 8 3 2Ⅲ 535-590 2010-2030 -30 to +5 2.8 – 3.2
Ⅳ 590-710 2020-2060 +10 to +60 3.2 – 4.0
Ⅴ 710 855 2050 2080 +25 t +85 4 0 4 9Ⅴ 710-855 2050-2080 +25 to +85 4.0 – 4.9
Ⅵ 855-1130 2060-2090 +90 to +140 4.9 – 6.1
4Excerpt from IPCC AR4
Background (3) Major emitters Background (3) Major emitters
Emission from developed countries was more than 65% in 1990 (those under the KP 42%) But it decreases to 26% in 2009(those under the KP 42%) But it decreases to 26% in 2009.
1990 2009
EU15
Under the KP ：26%
EU15
Under the KP ：42%
10% Russia 5%
Japan 4%
Oth
Others27%
EU1514.7%
Russia
Others20.8%
Other developed 7%
India 5%
10.4%
JPN5.1%
China10.7%
India2.8%
US 18%
China 24%
Other developed12.4%US
23.2%
10.7%
529 billion ton-CO221 billion ton-CO2
Cancun Agreements (2010)Cancun Agreements (2010)
Targets and actions toward 2020 by major Parties* are officially noted in the COP decision. y
(*about 140 parties, covering over 80% of global CO2 emissions))
MRV scheme (biennial reports by both ( p ydeveloped and developing countries/ International review process on BRs))
Green Climate Fund for assisting developing g gcountries.
6 Continue discussion on 2nd Commitment Period
of the KP.
Major Issues in Major Issues in COP17COP17
1. Future Framework with participation of all major emittersemitters
2. 2nd Commitment Period for the KP3. Operationalization of Cancun Agreements:
• MRV (Measurement Reporting andMRV (Measurement, Reporting and Verification) of actions by both developed- and developing countriesdeveloping countries
• Adaptation• Finance (Green Climate Funds)• Technology transfer and Capacity buildingTechnology transfer and Capacity building
7
Outcomes Outcomes of COP17of COP17• Agreed the path toward post‐2020 Climate Regime applicable to all
Parties.• Several decisions to operationalize Cancun Agreement• Several decisions to operationalize Cancun Agreement• Agreement on the 2nd CP of the KP that become a basis of activities in
the period until the establishment of future framework
T t l E h
Operationalization of Cancun Agreement CP2 of the KP
Establishing a new “Ad Hoc
Path to future Climate Regime
Adopt Guidelines on MRV
Agreed work program of
Target value: Each
developed country
(excluding JPN, CAN,
g
Working Group on Durban
Platform for Enhanced
Actions”Adaptation Committee
Design of GCF
Design of Climate Technology
RUS) will submit its
target by 1 May 2012.
Period: 5 or 8 years
Actions
To adopt “a protocol, legal
instrument or agreed Design of Climate Technology
Center and Network, a new
forum for information
y
(to be decided at next
session)
Agreed on rules to be
outcome with legal force”
as early as possible by
2015. This future regime exchange on capacity building Agreed on rules to be
applied in the CP2
g
will come into effect in
2020. 8
Future Climate RegimeFuture Climate Regime
a protocol , another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with a protocol , another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force…applicable to all Partieslegal force…applicable to all Parties
“Applicable to all Parties”
With NO mention to CBDR and equity (but still “under the Convention”?)
“ d i h l l f ” ? “agreed outcome with legal force” ?
How the regime be effective to achieve long term (2 degree) goal?
New AWG: Durban PlatformNew AWG: Durban Platform
To launch in the first half 2012, with agreeing its Work Programme
Will be comprehensive, including Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance, T h l f C i b ildi d T f iTechnology transfer, Capacity building, and Transparency of actions
Work for enhancing mitigation ambition (raise targets of each country)
9
country)
Path towards future Climate RegimePath towards future Climate Regime
2012 2013 20202014 2015Ad l hAdopt not later than2015
Start in 1st half 2012 EnforceAWG Durban Platform
20152015Post 2020
CC
ment of
• Ratification, and establishment of domestic
Will be terminated at
5th IPCCAssessment report
OP21
OP18
the new
of domestic measures by each Party
Review of long term goal（in 2013‐2015）
C AWG-LCA
COP18
2118
w Future
‐Steady measures by countries based on Pledged Targets and actions, with keeping transparency by MRV
Implementation of Cancun AgreementBy 2020 ll bWill be
terminated at
A
framew
actions, with keeping transparency by MRV‐ Adaptation, Finance, Technology transfer and Capacity building
AWG-KP
COP18COP18
KP 1st CP1st CP ork2nd CP (2013～2017 or 2020)P
( 2012)1st CP
(～2012)
10
CP2 for the KPCP2 for the KP
【Draft Amendment of the KP】 Develop a draft amendment of KP (will be adopted in next session in 2012.) Taking into consideration the position of Japan Canada and Russia No Taking into consideration the position of Japan, Canada and Russia. No
space for these three countries to fill in their target values in the amended Annex B (list of targets).
【Target】 Each country will submit its target value by 1 May 2012. The submitted target will be examined in the next AWG‐KP and wil be
decided in next CMP.
【Commitment Period】 Two options: 5 years or 8 years from 2013. To be decided in next AWG‐KP.
【Rules for CP2】 Accounting rules for absorption by land use change and forestry, gases for
the reporting of emissions (Addition of NF3 etc )
11
the reporting of emissions (Addition of NF3 etc.) No significant change in the Kyoto Mechanisms (CDM, JI)
11
Operationalization of C.A.Operationalization of C.A.Mitigation／MRV
• A process to enhance understanding of each country’s target or action (submission of detailed information + Workshop in 2012)
MRV(Measureable Reportable and Verifiable)MRV(Measureable, Reportable and Verifiable)• Guidelines for Biennial Report for developed and developing countries• First BR to be submitted by Jan. 2014 for developed countries and Dec. 2014 for
developing countriesdeveloping countries• Modalities and procedures of international assessment of BRsNew Market Mechanisms• Procedures for a mechanism under the UN• Start discussion on other approaches (including the Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism)
• Work items of Adaptation Committee, Guideline for developing National Adaptation Adaptation
Plan, work programme for loss and damage caused CC
Finance, Technology transfer, Capacity building
• Modalities of Green Climate Fund• Function and structure of Standing committee on finance, continue discussion on
financial source etc for the long term goal on finance （100 billion US$ by 2020)financial source etc. for the long term goal on finance （100 billion US$ by 2020) • Role of Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) , procedure of deciding CTC host • Durban Forum for information sharing on capacity building
12
MRVMRV for developing countriesfor developing countries
Biennial Update Report (BUR)
Every two yearsEvery two years Technical analysis byEvery two yearsEvery two years(First BUR by Dec. 2014)(First BUR by Dec. 2014)
Technical analysis by Experts team
FacilitativeSh i f i
Summary reportd d Sharing of views
under the SB*
y pby review teamTo update NC regarding;
‐ GHG Inventory‐Mitigation ActionsN d f t‐ Needs for support
and support received Record of the sharingof views
National Comminication (NCs) Every Every four four yearsyears International Consultation & Analysis
*Facilitative Sharing of Views In session Workshop at the SB meeting with 1 to 3 hours session for each Party or group of
13
In‐session Workshop at the SB meeting with 1 to 3 hours session for each Party or group of Parties. Presentation by Party concerned, followed by oral Q&A. All Parties can join the session and can submit written questions in advance.
Purposes of the BOCM
Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism Purposes of the BOCM Contribute to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC through promotion of
mitigation activities globally. Facilitate the bilateral cooperation in the field of climate change in such a Facilitate the bilateral cooperation in the field of climate change in such a
way that best suits each country’s national circumstances. Contribute to the sustainable development of developing countries. A i t l l t th t ib ti t GHG i i d ti Appropriately evaluate the contribution to GHG emission reductions or
removals. Facilitate diffusion of low carbon technologies, products and services and
JAPANPartner CountryL C b T h l i
enhance capabilities to utilize them.
Methodologies will be d l d
JAPAN CountryLow Carbon Technologies, Products, Services
Joint Projectdeveloped
cooperatively by both Japan and Partner Country
Project
Used to achieve GHG emission reduction/limi
tation
Offset CreditsUsed to achieve Japan’s
emission reduction target 14
BOCM Feasibility StudiesBOCM Feasibility Studies
Mongolia:△ Multi-Application of EE at Coal Thermal Power Plants△ Energy Saving at Buildings (Geothermal Heat Pump)
China :△ Energy Saving through Water-Saving Toilet
Systems △ Energy Management and Control Systems at
Factories
Category●--Waste Management○--Biomass Utilisation★--Transportation▲--Renewable Energy (RE)△--Energy Efficiency
Mexico :△ EE Improvement at
Households
India:△ Utilisation of LED Lights at Office Buildings△ High-Performance Industrial Furnaces to
Aluminium Industry
Factories X- CMM Electric Generation and Integrated EE
Improvement
Thailand :● Waste Management Activities in Thailand★ Development of MRT Network
△ Energy Efficiency ■--REDD+X--Others
Householdsy
Sri Lanka :○ Development of Castor Seed Industry
Cluster▲ B t G id El t i it Mi F i
★ Development of MRT Network▲ Wind Power Generation in Low Wind Speed Condition△ Institutional Development of BEMS with Certificated
Carbon CreditsX Utilisation of Off-Peak Power from Storage Batteries &
Introduction of Electric Vehicles●
●
▲ Best Grid Electricity Mix Focusing on REs Viet Nam
■ REDD+ through Revegetation at Denuded Lands & Woody Biomass-based Power Generation in Son La Province
X Utilisation of Blast Furnace Slags as Blending MaterialLao PDR :
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
X Utilisation of Blast Furnace Slags as Blending Material for Cement
★ Development of MRT Systems in Hanoi & Ho Chi Minh
Cambodia :■ REDD+ in Prey Long Area
★ Urban Transport Management
Malaysia :● Energy Generation by Waste
Management Activities
● ●
●
● Colombia:▲ Geothermal Power
Generation
Brazil :■ REDD+ in Acre StateSouth Africa :
△ Integrated EE Activities at Beer/Beverage Factories
Indonesia :● Energy Application of Wastes & Wastewater Originated in
Processing of Agricultural Products■ REDD+ in Central Kalimantan Province■ REDD+ and Bio-Fuel Production & Utilisation
■ REDD in Prey Long Area
NOTE :
15
Angola :■ REDD+ through
Revegetation & Fuelisationof Woody Biomass Chiips
■ REDD+ and Bio-Fuel Production & Utilisation■ Avoidance of Peat Aerobic Digestion & Rice Husk-based
Power Generation★ Development of MRT Systems in Jakarta
NOTE : EE= Energy EfficiencyMRT= Mass Rapid TransitBEMS= Building & Energy
Management Systems
Summary and Key MessagesSummary and Key Messages
As a result of COP17, • International negotiation goes to the post‐2020 ClimateInternational negotiation goes to the post 2020 Climate Regime applicable to all Parties. • Actions by developing countries will also become subject to international MRV. • Schemes and Institutions for supporting developing countries’ actions were set up (GCF CTCN)countries’ actions were set up. (GCF, CTCN)•Market mechanisms for global cooperative actions continue to be discussed. Japan promotes BOCM.to be discussed. Japan promotes BOCM.
Mitigation actions in developing countries are the key for the l b l ff
Co-benefit approach becomes much more effective and
global efforts.
16
ppimportant, to achieve both low carbon and sustainable development in developing countries together.
