International Migrant Stock:

estimates and dissemination

Chisinau, Moldova, 8-9 September 2014

Pablo Lattes

Migration Section, Population Division - DESA

United Nations, New York

The international migrant stock

continues to grow

International migrant stock, 1990-2013 (millions)

Proportion of international migrants in total population

154

175

221 232

0

50

100

150

200

250

2.9%

2.8%

3.2% 3.2%

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

1990 2000 2010 2013

Data availability from

2000 census round onwards

Percentage # of countries with data

Coverage of migrants (percentage)

Total Age Origin Total Age Origin

Africa (58) 62 69

Asia (50) 78 84

Europe (48) 90 100

Latin America and the Caribbean (48) 88 99

Northern America (5) 100 100

Oceania (23) 91 100

World (232) 80 93

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

Data availability from

2000 census round onwards

Percentage # of countries with data

Coverage of migrants (percentage)

Total Age Origin Total Age Origin

Africa (58) 62 41 59 69 44 74

Asia (50) 78 64 66 84 73 67

Europe (48) 90 90 90 100 100 100

Latin America and the Caribbean (48) 88 77 83 99 97 98

Northern America (5) 100 100 100 100 100 100

Oceania (23) 91 65 78 100 99 99

World (232) 80 67 75 93 87 88

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

International migrant stock

modelling

Countries with 2 or more data points • Extrapolation procedures • Adjust to estimated totals

Countries with 1 data point • a) data + regional variation + current events • b) constant distribution

Countries with no data • Based on a selection of similar countries (GCC,

ICS) – grouped into other South / North

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Age modelling of migrants

Some of the stock stays and ages

Some of the stock is recycled (replaced by new migrants with a model age distribution)

For each country - stock arrives or departs with model age distribution

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Origin and destination

Most international migrants come from

Asia and Europe…

73

62

3530

41

International migrant stock by major area of origin, 2010 (millions)

Africa Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean

Northern America

Oceania

…1.8%

…8.4%

…5.9%

…2.9%

…1.1%

…3.8%

Proportion of migrants in total population at origin

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Numbers of international migrants by

origin and destination, 1990-2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

South-North

South-South

North-North

North-South

1990 2000 2010 2013

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Migration impacts

Young people constitute a major

proportion of those migrating

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Age

Distribution of migrant inflows by age to selected countries in Europe, 2008 - 2009

Source: International migration flows to and from selected countries: The 2010 Revision

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Mostly young people are leaving Moldova

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Annual emigration from Moldova by age group, 2001-2011

Different impacts of migration on

population change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950-

1960

1960-

1970

1970-

1980

1980-

1990

1990-

2000

2000-

2010

2010-

2020

2020-

2030

2030-

2040

2040-

2050

mil

lio

ns

-10

40

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

1950-

1960

1960-

1970

1970-

1980

1980-

1990

1990-

2000

2000-

2010

2010-

2020

2020-

2030

2030-

2040

2040-

2050

mil

lio

ns

Total net change

Immigration-emigration

Births-deaths

Europe Slowing population

decline

Africa Reducing

population growth (but little impact)

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Migration impacts on the dependency

ratio of old people

17.4

41.2

16.6

26.9

36.4

30.7

21.8

36.539.5

21.8

38.944.3

2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050

USA Moldova

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Dependency ratio of old people (65+) over working age population (20-65), (percentage)

with migration

without migration

Remittances:

the main recipient countries

71

60

2622 21

48

31

25 25 24

India China Philip-

pines

Tajikistan Kyrgyz

Republic

Top 5 recipients as a

share of GDP (2012)

Top 5 recipients (2013)

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

US

$ b

illio

n

% o

f G

DP

Mexico Nigeria

Lesotho

Moldova

Source: World Bank

Nepal

Total:

414 billion USD

154 175

221 232

0

100

200

300

400

500

2.9% 2.8%

3.2% 3.2%

Proportion of migrants in total population

443 513

4.6%

5.4%

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants

continues to increase (millions)

2050

19

90

-20

00

gro

wth

rate

20

00

-20

10

gro

wth

rate

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Dissemination efforts

Online data

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

United Nations Global Migration Database http://unmigration.org

• Empirical databases online

• Estimates online

• Migration profiles (country specific)

• Fact sheets (theme specific)

• Wall charts

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

UNPopulation.org /publications /Population Facts

Dissemination through the use of maps

- Moldovan population abroad

50,000 to 300,000

10,000 to 50,000 1,000 to 10,000

1 to 1,000

Moldovan migrant stock by destination countries, 2010

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Europe out

Europe in Oceania

Latin Am out

Latin Am in

Africa out

Africa in

N. A. out

N. A. in

Asia out

Asia in

www.unmigration.org

Questions?