International Energy Outlook 2016global delivered energy in 2040. • Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2016

For

Schlumberger

June 23, 2016 | Cambridge, MA

By

Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case

• World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 629

quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48%

increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account

for more than half of the increase.

• The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered

energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of

global delivered energy in 2040.

• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing

by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global

total in 2012 to 6% in 2040. Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-

fourths of world energy use in 2040.

Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger

June 23, 20162

Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case (continued)

• Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in

the mid-term as China’s economic shifts to services and worldwide policies

to limit coal use intensify. By 2030, natural gas surpasses coal as the world’s

second largest energy source.

• In 2012, coal provided 40% of the world’s total net electricity generation. By

2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources (including hydro)

provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation.

• With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon

dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons (mt) in 2012 to 36

billion mt in 2020, 39 billion mt in 2030, and 43 billion mt in 2040, a 34%

increase relative to 2012.

3Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger

June 23, 2016

Many global issues increase uncertainty…

• Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others)

• Implementation and strength of climate policies

• Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand)

• Future of nuclear generating capacity

• Geopolitical events


June 23, 2016

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

U.S. OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

China India Brazil MiddleEast

Africa Russia

Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population

average annual percent change (2012–40)

percent per year


June 23, 2016

Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy

intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal

Petroleum and other liquid fuels

Natural gas Renewables

Nuclear

Coal with U.S. CPP

Renewables with

U.S. CPP

Share of

total energy

world energy consumption

quadrillion Btu


June 23, 2016

Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal

by 2030, and oil maintains its leading share

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)

6

History Projections2012

33%

30%

28%

22%

23%

26%

12%

17%

4%

6%

22%

16%

0

125

250

375

500

625

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector

quadrillion Btu


June 23, 2016

As total energy consumption grows, shares by end-use sector remain

relatively unchanged


7

Industrial

Buildings

Transportation

Share of total

delivered energy

20%21%

54%

53%

25%

26%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Electricity generation

Gross domestic product

world GDP and net electricity generation

percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)


June 23, 2016

Economic growth drives electricity demand; electricity use grows at a

faster rate than other delivered energy, but slower than GDP


8


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

Share of

total energy 57%

43%

65%

35%


quadrillion Btu


June 23, 2016

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in total energy use


9


Special Focus on

Electricity Markets and Renewables


June 23, 201610

-1

1

3

5

7

9

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD electricity

Non-OECD GDP

OECD GDP

OECD electricity

world GDP and net electricity generation

percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)


June 23, 2016

GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate

compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time


11


0

10

20

30

40

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world net electricity generation by source

trillion kilowatthours


June 23, 2016

Renewables (with hydro), natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly

the same amount of global net electricity generation in 2040


12

Liquids

Other renewables

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydropower

world net electricity generation from renewable energy by source

trillion kilowatthours


June 23, 2016

Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in

renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year)


13

Biomass, waste, and

tide/wave/ocean

Hydropower

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China

renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 2040

billion kilowatthours


June 23, 2016

Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 2040

varies widely


14

Biomass, waste, and

tide/wave/ocean

Hydropower

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions


June 23, 201615

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Liquid fuels

Coal

Natural gas

36%36%

20%

43%

26%

38%

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

billion metric tons


June 23, 2016

Coal remains the world’s largest source of energy-related CO2

emissions, but by 2040 its share declines to 38%


16


Share of

total

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2012 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

billion metric tons


June 23, 2016

Non-OECD Asia will account for about 60% of the world increase in

energy-related CO2 emissions


17

History Projections

For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1


June 23, 2016

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1

Appendix A:

U.S. solar and wind


June 23, 201619

• wind and solar electricity capacity, the latter including both utility-scale solar and distributed photovoltaic (PV), has experienced rapid growth in recent years, increasing by more than 100% and slightly over 900%, respectively, between 2009 and 2015

• given the recent growth rates in wind and solar capacity and generation, EIA follows these technologies closely and is committed to assuring the quality of its data and projections for these sources through regular internal and external reviews

Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/supplement/renewable/

EIA reviews renewable energy costs and historical capacity

to improve projections for U.S. Annual Energy Outlook


June 23, 201620

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/supplement/renewable/


June 23, 2016

Extension of federal investment and business tax credits helps to

drive solar and wind generation capacity in the U.S.

Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26492

21

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26492

Appendix B:

International liquid fuels markets


June 23, 201622

0 10 20 30 40

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

OECD Americas

Africa

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Non-OECD Americas

Middle East

Non-OECD Asia

2012

2020

2040

world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption

million barrels per day


June 23, 2016

Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-OECD

regions — especially Asia


23

passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for

selected country groupings 2010–40


June 23, 2016

Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel

growth is largely outside the OECD


24

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

OECD

China

Other

non-OECD Asia

Africa

India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate

OPEC crude and lease condensate

Other liquids

world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels



June 23, 2016

Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers

increase through 2040


25


0

10

20

30

40

Middle East North Africa West Africa South America

2012 2020 2040

OPEC crude and lease condensate production



June 23, 2016

Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East


26

0

3

6

9

12

15

Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe

2012 2020 2040

non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupings



June 23, 2016

Increases to non-OPEC oil supplies outside the United States are

primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan


27

0 5 10 15

Gas-to-liquids

Coal-to-liquids

Biofuels

Refinery gain

Natural gas plant liquids

2012

2020

2040


The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain,

and biofuels



June 23, 2016

Appendix C:

International natural gas markets


June 23, 201629

world natural gas consumption

trillion cubic feet


June 23, 2016

Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas

consumption


30

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD Non-OECD

0 5 10 15 20

Other OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Other non-OECD

OECD Americas

Middle East

Non-OECD Asia

China Other

Other

Other

Other

Iran Saudi Arabia

United States

Russia

world change in natural gas production, 2012–40

trillion cubic feet


June 23, 2016

Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the

largest increases in natural gas production


31

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2040 2012 2040 2012 2040

natural gas production by type

trillion cubic feet


June 23, 2016

Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly

important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada

Note: Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as

‘conventional’ production.


32

China Canada

Shale gas

Other gas

United States

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

LNG capacity additions

billion cubic feet per day


June 23, 2016

Liquefaction capacity additions over the 2015-19 time period will

increase global capacity by over 30%

Note: Capacity additions in 2015-19 include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity,

not adjusted for ramp-up

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press

33

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States

Appendix D:

Miscellaneous international


June 23, 201634

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

China

United States with CPP

IndiaUnited States

coal consumption in the US, China, and India

quadrillion Btu


June 23, 2016

Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to

continue to increase throughout the projection

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)

35


0 40 80 120 160

Rest of world

Other non-OECD Asia

India

China

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

OECD Asia

OECD Americas

OECD Europe

2012

2040

world installed nuclear capacity by region

gigawatts


June 23, 2016

Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-OECD

regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth


36

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

2012 2020 2030 2040


quadrillion Btu


June 23, 2016

Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use


37

Other non-OECD

Non-OECD Asia

OECD OECD

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

carbon intensity of energy consumption, 1990-2040

kilograms CO2 per million Btu


June 23, 2016

Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 2040

in both OECD and non-OECD; non-OECD CO2/E rose over 2000–12


38


Documents

International Energy Outlook 2016global delivered energy in 2040. • Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows