INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

World Energy Outlook World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and 2004: Key Trends and

ChallengesChallengesMarco Baroni

Energy AnalystEconomic Analysis Division

INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN DAY

Berlin, 24th February 2005

World Energy Outlook Series

World Energy Outlook – 2000World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights:

Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth

World Energy Outlook – 2002World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: World

Energy Investment OutlookWorld Energy Outlook 2004World Energy Outlook – 2005 Insights:

Middle East and North Africa Energy Outlook: Implications for the World

The context

Global Energy Trends

Energy Market Outlook Oil, gas, coal, electricity, renewables

Regional Outlooks

Russia: an in-depth study

Energy and Development

World Alternative Policy Scenario

WEO 2004 Structure

Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,

while oil remains the leading fuel

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Hydro power

Other renewables

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand

Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia

38%

52%

10%

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

43%

9%

48%

2002 2030

10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe

38%

52%

10%

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

43%

9%

48%

2002 2030

10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe

Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits”

The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints

expand

CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030

CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of C

O2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Electricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity

Alternative Policy Scenario

Alternative Policy Scenario

Analyses impact of new environmental & energy-security policies worldwide OECD: Policies currently under consideration Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in

energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient technology.

Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

World Primary Energy Demand in Reference & Alternative Scenarios

Coal demand falls most, partially offset by more use of renewables

2 000

1 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

16 000

17 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Alternative Scenario

Reference Scenario

0

-

-

≈

Percentage of Global Electricity Generation from Fuel Cells in the OECD regions, 2030

Electricity production from fuel cells will grow from 2% to 4% of global production, mainly concentrated in the OECD

countries

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

341 TWh 498 TWh

35%

40%

25%

OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific

38%

43%

19%

Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative Scenario in 2030,

a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO2

Alternative Scenario

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of C

O2

Reference Scenario

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of C

O2

EU CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

With new policies, EU CO2 emissions stabilise by 2010 and fall after 2020

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of

CO

2

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of

CO

2

Kyoto Target

Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use

for 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

21%

12%

8%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

5%4%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

20%

Increased renewables in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

Summary & Conclusions

IEA H2/FC Activities

IEA Secretariat: Policy Analysis

Policy studies (WEO, others) International cooperation

Implementing Agreements: R,D&D H2 production & storage, stationary and mobile

fuel cells, CO2 capture & storage, system

integration …

Hydrogen Co-ordination Group: Policy Policy advice, strategies, cooperation

Summary & Conclusions

On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than now

Energy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyond

Vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase as oil & gas trade through key chokepoints expands

But projected market trends raise serious concerns: Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Rising CO2 emissions Huge energy-investment needs Persistent energy poverty

Policies under consideration of technology could substantially reduce energy demand and emissions

But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment (e.g. CCS, Hydrogen, Advanced Nuclear)