International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution New concepts and methods for effect-based strategies on transboundary air

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution

International and National Abatement

Strategies for Transboundary air

Pollution

New concepts and methods for effect-based strategies on transboundary air pollution


ASTA General objectives

• To produce scientific material of importance for international abatement strategies of transboundary air pollution

•Support the revisions of the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC directive

•To develop tools for national strategies within sectors where transboundary air pollution is of importance.


Phase 1: 1999 - 2002

•Source effect relationships

•Dynamic modelling of acidification

•Experimental studies on eutrophication

•Ozone level 2 for crops and forests

•Regional particle composition

•Social science. Interlink between science and policy

•Centre for evaluation and assessment

N E W C O N C E P T S A N D M E T H O D S F O RE F F E C T - B A S E D S T R A T E G I E S O N

T R A N S B O U N D A R Y A I R P O L L U T I O N

T H E M I S T R A P R O G R A M M E :

A S T A

I N T E R N A T I O N A L A N D N A T I O N A LA B A T E M E N T S T R A T E G I E S F O R

T R A N S B O U N D A R Y A I R P O L L U T I O N

S y n t h e s i s R e p o r t , A u g u s t 2 0 0 2

E d i t o r s : J o h n M u n t h e , P e r i n g e G r e n n f e l t , H a r a l dS v e r d r u p a n d G ö r a n S u n d q v i s t

ASTA Synthesis Report

Available in pdf from

http://asta.ivl.se

Or from Jenny Arnell

[email protected]

• Centre activities during phase 1– Saltsjöbaden workshop 2000– Expert group on dynamic modelling, 3

meetings– Workshop on validation of emission

inventories– Workshop on CL for ozone effects to

vegetation– EMEP assessment report


IAM - recovery of lakes, target load function

Critical load and Target Load Functionshowing the combined deposition levels of sulphate and nitrate at which the ANC >80eq/l criteria is not reached by 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050. Example forone lake in central Sweden

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350N-deposition (meq/m2/yr)

S-d

epositio

n (

meq/m

2/y

r)

Dep 1997

Dep 2010

CL 9999

TL 2050

TL 2040

TL 2030

TL 2020


Acidification and recovery - modelling forest soils

Regional dynamic assessment of pH in layer 2 at different years using the Gothenburg protocol as the future deposition scenario, assuming constant deposition between 2010 and 2100


Ground level ozone - relative growth in relation to ozone uptake or concentration

daylight AOT40 (ppm h)

Rel

ativ

e bi

omas

s

0 20 40 60 8070

80

90

100

110

CUO (mmol m-2, proj)

Rel

ativ

e bi

omas

s

0 20 40 60 8070

80

90

100

110

Impact of ozone on the total biomass of young Norway spruce trees in relation to daylight AOT40 and cumulative ozone uptake.The young Norway spruce trees were exposed in open-top chambers during four growing seasons to different ozone concentrations in combination with drought stress and in combination with phosphorous deficiency.

Programme management

Source-effect relations,

Indicators and Target settings

Uncertainty, Transparency and

Communication

Realisation, Costs and Benefits

Support to National Strategies

Nationalreference group

Phase 2 of ASTA. 2003 - 2006


Phase 2 of ASTA. Four main Themes

Theme 1. Source-effect relationships, indicators

and target setting

Theme 2. Realisation, costs and benefits

Theme 3. Uncertainties, transparency and communication

Theme 4. Support to national strategies

Cost Benefit assessment

MappingTest of

indicator

Scenario studies

Source-effect relations.

Choice of indicator

Choice of indicator

Test of indicator

Test of indicator

Uncert.assessment

Dynamic model development

Choice of indicator

BiodiversityParticles/health

AcdificationOzone/veg.

Theme

3

1

1 & 4

2 & 4


Theme 1.

1. Source-effect relationships, indicators and target setting

Activities

1. Dynamic models for recovery from acidification

2. Implementing level II for ozone

3. Source-receptor relationships for long range transported particles

4. Model development for assessing biodiversity changes in terrestrial ecosystems and for combined ecosystem effects


Theme 2.

2. Realisation, Costs and Benefits

Activities1. Realisation of international agreements EMEP Assessment report2. Valuation of effects

AcidificationOzone effects to trees and crops

3. Scenarios and control measures


Realisation, costs and benefits. Deliverables (preliminary)

Assessment of costs and benefits of reduced emissions and their economic value for

1. acidification, 2. ozone effects to crops and forests

Tentatively 3. nitrogen deposition, 4. atmospheric concentrations of

pollutants.

Reports on linearity relations between emission reductions, their costs and benefits.


Theme 3.

3. Uncertainties, transparency and communication

Activities1. Scientific credibility in a complex society 2. Uncertainties in source effects relationships and their influence on abatement strategies3. Communication4. Overall evaluation of regional air pollution strategies


Uncertainties, transparency and communication. Deliverables

A conceptual model for how legitimacy is achieved in the international negotiations on air pollution including the roles of basic science, integrated assessment models and the different levels in the policy work.

An analysis of the relations between uncertainties in data, compartment models and integrated assessment models, and the robustness in control scenarios.


Uncertainties, transparency and communication. Deliverables

Model tool and assessments on uncertainties within the area of ecosystem effects. Integrate uncertainties in analyses of robustness in various strategies.

A workshop on scientific production and assessments in relation to the policy needs in CAFE and CLRTAP - “Saltsjöbaden 2”.

Additional workshops


Support to national strategies. Deliverables

Support to the revision of the Swedish national environmental quality objectives

Assessment of particle emissions (amounts and composition) from biomass-based energy production in comparison to other major sources.

Toolbox for regional assessment of sustainable potential for harvest of biomass from forests considering interactions with air pollution


Support to national strategies. Deliverables

Model development and assessment of interactions between air pollutants (nitrogen, acidification, ozone), forestry and carbon sinks in the forest ecosystem.

Assessment of long term effects of whole tree harvesting on the recovery from acidification and eutrophication in forest soils in Sweden.

Documents

International and National Abatement Strategies for Transboundary air Pollution New concepts and methods for effect-based strategies on transboundary air