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Integrated Energy Systems
the importance of
technology, markets & policy
Mark O’Malley
IEEE DLP Lecture
NTNU, Trondheim, March 4th 2016
Outline
• Background
• About UCD, ERC and Energy Institute
• Integrated Energy Systems o Technology o Markets o Policy
• International activities
• Conclusion
University College Dublin
• 28,000 students
• Founded in 1854
• Has educated half of Ireland’s prime ministers (Taoiseach)
• Largest urban campus in Europe (350 acres)
• Unique capability in electrical energy research at global level
UCD Energy Institute, http://energyinstitute.ucd.ie, launched in 2013 by Taoiseach Enda Kenny, Institute Board Chairman Dave O’Reilly.
Led by Prof. Mark O’Malley, and building on the foundation of the Electricity Research Centre http://erc.ucd.ie, founded in 1991.
Based in UCD; partnered with 6 Irish universities and 22 industry collaborators, and internationally networked
Vision: A leading partner in major global energy systems research & innovation initiatives.
Mission: Doing energy systems research that impacts and serves society, nationally & internationally, by being rigorous, strategic and objective
Institute Overview
Industry Collaboration
What is an Integrated Energy System ?
What is Energy Systems Integration (ESI) ?
Energy System Integration (ESI) is the process of coordinating the operation and planning of energy systems across multiple pathways and geographical scales in order to deliver reliable, cost effective energy services with less impact
on the environment.
Energy Systems Integration (ESI)
Electricity
Thermal
Fuels
Data
Single Technologies and Locations
Campus, City Community
Regional, National, Continental
Fossil Nuclear Renewable
Energy Source
Residential Commercial Industry Mobility
Energy Use Sector
• optimization of energy systems across multiple pathways and scales • increase reliability and performance, and minimise cost and environmental impacts • most valuable at the interfaces where the coupling and interactions are strong and
represent a challenge and an opportunity • control variables are technical economic and regulatory
Water
Multidisciplinary
ESIPP • Energy Systems Integration
Partnership Programme (ESIPP)
• 23 academics from 7 institutions
• 5 Industry Partners, 17 Industry Collaborators
• Three strands: • Modelling & Data • End Use • Markets & Strategic Planning
• Funding €11.0M (SFI, philanthropic
donation & industry funding)
• Officially launched, 24th November 2015
Examples of Integrated Energy System
RealValue
Electric Heat Demand is Flexible
HUB
RF Mesh Multidirectional
Home Area Network
GPRS
IP
Smart Thermal Electric Storage Heaters as a Load Shifting Resource
Smart Thermal Electric Storage Heaters as a Load Shifting Resource
SNSP Limit & Curtailment 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1001
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
increasing SETS penetration, (%)
win
d c
urt
ailm
ent,
(%
)
SNSP Limit 50%
SNSP Limit 60%
SNSP Limit 70%
Modest ability of Smart Electric Heat Demand (SETS) to reduce wind curtailment is consistent across the SNSP limit constraint sensitivities
Wind curtailment in China
• In 2011 wind curtailment in China was 16.9 % that is of the wind that is
connected to the grid i.e. approx. 75 % of the 80 GW installed.
• May well be just a legacy issue i.e. in China as the load grows the new
thermal plant can be made more flexible and system will be designed
around the needs.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Chinas-Wind-Market-Growing-but-Challenged-by-Grid-
Real
Combined heat and power (CHP) can be made flexible
Chen, X., Kang, C., O’Malley, M.J., Xia, Q., Bai, J., Liu, C., Sun, R., Wang, W. and Hui, L., “Increasing the Flexibility of Combined Heat and Power for Wind Power Integration in China: Modeling and Implications”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 30, pp.1848-1857, 2015.
Flexible CHP can reduce wind curtailment
Chen, X., Kang, C., O’Malley, M.J., Xia, Q., Bai, J., Liu, C., Sun, R., Wang, W. and Hui, L., “Increasing the Flexibility of Combined Heat and Power for Wind Power Integration in China: Modeling and Implications”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 30, pp.1848-1857, 2015.
Demonstration projects
• Established in Inner
Mongolia, 2014, with 20
electric boilers
• 500,000 m2 heat supply
• 75 GWh wind power
annually, equivalent to
19,000t coal
• Decrease CO2 emission by
68,000t
Source: Chongqing Kang, Tsinghua University
100 % Wind we will have to change how we live
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
Month
Load 100% Wind
22
Key Take Away
Coupling electricity and heat (and other vectors) across scales can help integrate variable renewable energy
To make a real impact it probably requires changes at the planning stage
Grid Flexibility
With Variable Renewables More Flexibility is Needed
16x103
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
MW
13401320130012801260124012201200
Hours
Load
Net Load Wind
Steeper ramps Lower turn-down
Source: Michael Milligan , NREL
Sources: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), IHS Technology (2014 figure)
PV Installed Worldwide 25
1,615 2,069 2,635 3,723 5,112 6,660 9,183 15,844
23,185
40,336
70,469
100,480
138,833
182,500
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MW
Global PV Cumulative Installed Capacity
Data from http://www.wwindea.org/home/index.php
Wind Installed Worldwide 26
24,322 31,181 39,925
47,681 59,012
74,112
93,919
120,894
159,742
196,944
236,749
282,275
318,529
370,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MW
Wind installed Worldwide
Electric Vehicles & Role in integration of wind
Shortt, A. and O’Malley, M.J., “Quantifying Long-Term Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Generation Portfolio”, IEEE Trans. on Smart Grid, Vol. 5, pp. 71-83, 2014.
Increasing EVs bring flexibility but also encourage more base load efficient plant so reducing flexibility
Flexibility Metric
Lannoye, E., Flynn, D. and O'Malley, M.J. "Transmission, variable generation and power system flexibility”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 30, pp. 57 – 64, 2014. Lannoye, E., Flynn, D., O’Malley, M., “Evaluation of Power System Flexibility” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 27, pp. 922 – 931, 2012.
Transmission playing its part Note the sag on the line
If you love wind/solar you
have to at least like
Transmission
Aggregation of wind with transmission 31
Krewitt, W. et al. Integration of Renewable Energy into Present and Future Energy Systems. In IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2011.
Enter the “consumer”
‘Engineers and economists are ignoring people and miscasting decision making and action’, Sovacool, B.K. (2014) Nature 511, 529-530
Trilemma plus the “consumer”
34
Key Take Away
Society impacts on the integrated energy system are very significant
Policy and markets very important
Markets and policy
Wind Installed in Republic of Ireland 36
0 57 62 70
116 125 137 212
343
495
745
850
1,002
1,260
1,425
1,577 1,637
1,844
2,211
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
MW
Source: EirGrid http://www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/all-islandwindandfuelmixreport/
28th & 29th January (Ireland)
System Services
Performance Monitoring
Grid Code
DS3 Programme (Delivering a Secure Sustainable Electricity System (DS3))
Frequency
WSAT
DSM
Control Centre Tools
Model Dev. & Studies
Voltage
Renewable Data
ROCOF
38
System services: Incentivising the
Portfolio
• 60 €m
• 7 Services
• 235 €m
• 14 Services
Ancillary Services
Capacity Payments
Energy Payments
Ancillary Services /
System Services
Capacity Payments
Energy Payments
Today Tomorrow 39
DSM – A New Service Provider…
…and the U.S. has similar experience
Public Service of Colorado (PSCo) reached record levels of wind penetration in October 2011
Hourly Record: 55.6% October 9, 2011 HE4
Daily Record: 37.0% October 8, 2011
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
MW
HE4 = 55.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
Win
d P
en
etr
ati
on
Public Service of Colorado - October 4-10, 2011
41
Source: Michael Milligan
42
…and Portugal
Portuguese load and generation profiles for May 15, 2011
Söder, L., Abildgaard, H., Estanqueiro, A., Hamon, C., Holttinen, H, Lannoye, E, Gómez Lázaro, E., O’Malley, M.J. and Zimmermann, U. “Experience and challenges with short-term balancing in European systems with large share of wind power", IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Vol. 3, pp. 853 – 861, 2012.
43 … and South Australia
Figure 6: Four days of wind and demand South Australia. Instantaneous penetration (excluding exports) (%) also shown (http://aemo.com.au).
AEMO, Australian Energy Market Operator, “Wind Integration In Electricity Grids: International Practice And Experience” Work Package 1, 2011. http://www.aemo.com.au/planning/0400-0049.pdf
Merit Order Effect
Merit Order Effect
O'Mahoney, A., Denny, E. 30th IAEE/USAEE North American Conference, Washington DC, USA, October 2011.
45
Munksgaard, J., and P. E. Morthorst, 2008: Wind power in the Danish liberalized power market - Policy measures, price impact and investor incentives, Energy Policy, 36:3940-3947.
46
Having the right generation set 47
48
Having enough generation
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-Perils-of-Electricity-
Capacity-Markets
Reliability
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_ele
ctricity/studies/doc/electricity/20131
0_loop-flows_study.pdf
Unannounced Wind Power in the Northern Germany Scheduled Power Exchanges
B NL
D
CENTREL
RWE
ELIA TENNET CEPS
CZ
MVM
H
SEPS
SK
PSE
PL
A APG
CH
ETRANS
I
GRTN
ELES
SLO
HEP
HR BiH
F RTE
E
REE
P
REN
PSE
ELES
North
South
- 1017 - 2967
- 504
+3903 +3126
+677
+2614
- 5380 - 452
646
2169
2150
798
1815
4669
11
8
3022
1704
575
481
120
40
1
1525 GB
DC link 752
- 3068 - 980
- 426
+3846
+2560
Source: Ronnie Belmans, ELIA
51
Unannounced Wind Power in the Northern Germany Scheduled Power Exchanges vs Physical Power Flows
4553
342
2875
1267
28
1485
505
846 11
89
1421
B NL
D
CENTREL
RWE
ELIA TENNET CEPS
CZ
MVM
H
SEPS
SK
PSE
PL
A APG
CH
ETRANS
I
GRTN
ELES
SLO
HEP
HR BiH
F RTE
E
REE
P
REN
PSE
ELES
North
South
- 1017 - 2967
- 504
+3903 +3126
+677
+2614
- 5380 - 452
646
2169
2150
798
1815
4669
11
8
3022
1704
575
481
120
401
1525 GB
DC link 752
- 3068 - 980
- 426
+3846
+2560
Source: Ronnie Belmans, ELIA
52
Emissions
54
http://www.agora-energiewende.org/fileadmin/downloads/publikationen/Analysen/Jahresauswertung_2014/Agora_Energiewende_Review_2014_EN.pdf
55
56
Germany leads world in solar photovoltaic BUT
http://phys.org/news/2014-05-germany-eu-worst-polluter-co2.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/rising-german-coal-use-imperils-european-emissions-deal.html
EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) • Goal: provide an incentive to reduce carbon emissions by creating
a carbon market • Cap and Trade scheme covering around 45% of the EU's
greenhouse gas emissions since 2005 • Within the cap, companies receive or buy
emission allowances which they can trade with one another as needed to cover their emissions, otherwise heavy fines are imposed
• Limits emissions from: – More than 11,000 heavy energy-using installations in power generation and
manufacturing industry – Aircraft operators performing aviation activities in the EU and EFTA states
• Video on EU ETS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yfNgsKrPKsg
“A sufficiently high carbon price also promotes investment in clean, low-carbon technologies.” European Commission. Discuss!
ETS Carbon price is too low
How did they get it so wrong
What are the drivers
What went wrong
What can be done about it
http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/sites/strategie.gouv.fr/files/ar
chives/CGSP_Report_European_Electricity_System_030
220141.pdf
61
Coordination is the key
Mackay, M., Bird, L., Cochran, J., Milligan, M., Bazilian, M., Neuhoff, K., Denny, E., Dillon, J., Bialek, J. and
O’Malley, M.J., “RES-E-NEXT, Next Generation of RES-E Policy Instruments”, IEA RETD, July 2013.
http://iea-retd.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/RES-E-NEXT_IEA-RETD_2013.pdf
62
Different market designs should all work
Mackay, M., Bird, L., Cochran, J., Milligan, M., Bazilian, M., Neuhoff, K., Denny, E., Dillon, J., Bialek, J. and
O’Malley, M.J., “RES-E-NEXT, Next Generation of RES-E Policy Instruments”, IEA RETD, July 2013.
http://iea-retd.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/RES-E-NEXT_IEA-RETD_2013.pdf
Spiral of death
Key Take Aways
Falling marginal energy price is undermining long term investments
Capacity from thermal generation may need to be incentivised
Whole system thinking and proper market signals required
Coordination in policies and market design is necessary
Remember it is an “integrated” energy system so everything impact son everything else !
But do the policy makers understand ?
65
http://www.nrel.gov/esi/esif.html
International Context
https://es.catapult.org.uk/ https://setis.ec.europa.eu/system/files/Towards%20an%20Integrated%20Roadmap_0.pdf
iiESI.org
www.eera-set.eu
EERA is an official part of the EU SET-Plan. http://setis.ec.europa.eu/
Joint Programme on Energy System Integration (ESI)
EERA Summer Strategy Meeting Amsterdam
24th & 25th June, 2015
Fuels
Electricity
Heating / cooling Water / transport
Data SP1:
Modelling
SP2: Forecasting, aggregation
& control
SP3: Technology
SP4: Consumer
SP5: Finance & regulation
ESI
DESCRIPTION OF WORK
Conclusions
• Energy Systems Integration (ESI) is an increasingly important research area
• It is fundamental to successful integration of large volumes of variable renewable energy
• It has technological, societal, policy and market aspects that are all important
• ESI is well suited to international collaboration
