Institute for Energy Systems Matching Renewable …...Page 2 Institute for Energy Systems Matching Renewable Electricity Generation with Demand UNESP Presentation Nov 2006 Comments

Page 1

Institute for Energy

Systems

Matching Renewable Electricity Generation

with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006


with DemandGareth Harrison

November 2006

Page 2


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Comments• “One of the most obfuscating

pieces of research.” - Prof. James Lovelock (“Gaia” theory)

• “Misleading and effectively meaningless. Not worth the paper it is written on.” - Prof. David Simpson (“Tilting at windmills”)

• “It’s appalling. They are trying to fudge [the target].” - Bob Graham (Highlands Against Windfarms)

Page 3


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

The Scottish Challenge

Demand

Time

Supply

Time

Network

MEC Load

41 TWh demand7.3 GW peak

1.5 GW hydro1.5 GW wind (existing, consented)

0.5 GW biomass (estimated)Wave & tidal current?

2020

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Constraints GIS Mapped

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 5


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

StudyArea

N = 500 kmE = 0 km

N = 500 kmE = 500 km

500 km

750 km

Source: Ordnance Survey

• Spatial resolution: 1 km2

• Use of British National Grid coordinates

N = 1250 kmE = 500 km

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Political

• International limit (200 nmi, 12 nmi)

• National limit• Fishing limit

(6 nmi)• Planning

authorities• Local

regulations

Sources: OS, UKHO

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Physical

• Water depth• Slope• Lakes• Rivers• etc.

Sources: OS, BGS, BODC, SRTM

Example:Average slope > 15% in a 1 km by 1 km square.

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

• Recreation interests (high sensitivity)

• Biodiversity interests (high sensitivity)

• Medium sensitivity areas

Sources: OS, SNH, SEGIS

National Scenic AreaNational ParkRegional park

AGLV, LNR, ...

Natura 2000, SSSI, ...

Environment

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Aviation Interests

• Civil radars

• Military radars• Met Office radars• Low Flying System

Sources: OS, DTI, CAA, BWEA

15 km exclusion zone30 km consultation zoneNATS high impactNATS lower impact

Tactical Training Area

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

• Urban areas

• Navigational risk

• Seismological measurements

• Ammunition dumping

• Distances, etc.

Sources: OS, DTI, CAA, BWEA

Cities, towns, villages

Eskdalemuir

Further Constraints

very highmediumvery low

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Onshore wind

absoluteconsultation (10% used)

Example:

Constraints

Page 12


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Long-Term Resource

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 13


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Average wind speed at 80 m height agl.

Abbreviations:Au – AultbeaAv – AviemoreD – DunstaffnageK – KinlossSa – SalsburghSk – Skye, LusaSt – StrathallanT – Tulloch Bridge

Kirkwall

Wick

Lerwick

Sella Ness

Dyce

Leuchars

Charterhall

Eskdalemuir

West Freugh

Tiree Airport

Port Ellen

South Uist

Stornoway

Dundrennan

Machrihanish

Altnaharra

AvSk

StD

Sa

Au

K

T

OnshoreWindResource

Meteorological station (21 + 3)

4 10 16 m/s

Sources: OS, Met Office

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Average wind speed at 80 m height asl.

OffshoreWindResource

4 10 16 m/s

Sources: OS, DTI, Met Office

Met Office Simulation Point(11)

Water depth, 5 km offshore

0 ... 30 m30 ... 40 m40 ... 50 m

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Wave power per metre crest length

WaveResource

5 30 55 kW/m

Sources: OS, DTI, Met Office

Met Office Simulation Point(84 + 11)

Water depth, 5 km offshore

50 ... 100 m

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Tidal CurrentResource

Sources: OS, DTI, Robert Gordon Univ.

Average spring tide velocity (surface)

0.5 1.5 2.5 m/s

Water depth30 ... 50 m

South-West

OrkneyIslands

Pentland Firth

Shetland

Mull of Galloway

Page 17


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Future Generator Locations

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 18


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Estimated onshorewind project costsexcluding connection to existing network

low costmedium costhigh cost

Example:

“no go” zone

• 3 x 2.5 MW per km2

• 80 m hub height• 20 years, 8 % discount rate

Assumptions:

including

Project Costs

Page 19


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Creating Power Time Series

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 20


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Energy ConvertersOn/Offshore Wind Waves Tidal Currents

Source: Nordex, OPD, MCT

• 3-bladed horizontal axis turbine with pitchableblades

• 80 / 120 m diameter• 2.5 / 5 MW• 80 m hub height• Offshore: < 40 m water

depth

• Semi-submerged articulated structure

• 180 m long• 1.5 MW• 50 ... 150 m water depth

• Twin-rotor horizontal axis turbine with pitchable blades

• 20 m rotor diameter• 2 x 500 kW• 30 ... 50 m water depth

Poweroutput

Wind speedcut-outcut-in

nominal

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Generation vs. Demand

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 22


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0 h 4 h 8 h 12 h 16 h 20 h 0 h

Demand - DailyS

yste

m D

eman

d (M

W)

Time

ScottishPower

ScottishandSouthernEnergy

max.

min.

avg.

Source: SP and SSE 2003 Seven Year Statements

24 h

Example:2002/03

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 20060

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Demand - AnnualS

yste

m D

eman

d (M

W)

Time

ScottishPower

weekly max.

weekly min.

weekly avg.

Source: SP 2002 and 2003 Seven Year Statements

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Example:2002

Page 24


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

0

25

50

75

100

21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul

0

25

50

75

100

20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan

Orkney with existing & new generationDemand Matching January, July 2003

(MW)

(MW)Onshore wind(a) new(b) existing

Tidal current

Wave

40%

, 100

% d

eman

d

27 Jan

28 Jul

Page 25


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Key Figures and Results

Resourcetime series

Long-termresource

Generatorlocations

Converter

Constraints

Macro

Renewablegeneration

GIS

Projectcosts

Selectioncriteria

MacroScenarios

Demand

Contents

Networ

kKeyfiguresResults

Page 26


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Simulation Scenarios

• Resource: 2001-2003 hourly data• Generation: Renewable expansion

by 2020• Demand: 2001-2003 hourly

demand scaled for 2020• Network: ideal

Page 27


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Findings

• After application of constraints it could be possible to develop at least – 6 GW of onshore wind,– 3 GW of offshore wind,– 3 GW of wave, and – 1 GW for tidal current,

• or any combination of these technologies.

Page 28


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Plant Capacity Factors

60%

30%

0 6 GW

Winter

Summer

• Exceeding 30%for wind, wave and tidal current

• Seasonal values for wind and wave are significantly higher in winter than in summer.

Incl. 1.5 GW optimallydispatched hydro

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

60%

40%

0 6 GW

Winter

Summer20%

Long-Term Matching

• 3 GW of onshore wind, offshore wind or wave would on average meet 20% of Scottish demand.

• A renewable mixof about 6 GWcould meet, on average, 40% of Scottish demand.

Incl. 1.5 GW optimallydispatched hydro

Page 30


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Conclusions

• Scotland could, in 2020, meet on average 40% of its demand for electricity from renewable resources with a total renewable capacity of around 6 GW.

• It does not mean that the aspirationaldemand target is reached during each hour of a year.

• There will be periods of shortfall and periods of excess.

Page 31


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

100%

40%

0 6 GW

Time = 1%

25%

50%75%

3 GW

Exceeding 40% of Demand

• Time when 40% of demand is exceeded was estimated.

• 3 GW renewable mix would achieve this for about 15% of the time.

• 6 GW renewable mixwould achieve this for about 45% of the time.

48% incl. 1.5 GW optimallydispatched hydro,

58% with 750 MW pumped storage

Page 32


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Coincident hours for demand > 90% and production < 10% (h/year)

3 GW 6 GW

Onshore-wind

75-10-10-5% mix

Tidal-current (750 MW)

Wave

Offshore-wind

29

-(22)

-19

-14

29

2018

Demand

Gener

atio

n

Hours of Coincidence

• Coincident hours describe hourly matchbetween generation and demand.

• Hours in a year with shortfall (import, balancing) and excess (export, curtailment) of renewable energy can be estimated.

7 h incl. 1.5 GW optimallydispatched hydro,

19 h with 750 MW pumped storage

Page 33


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Conclusions

• Sufficient renewable resources exist to meet governmental target (of supplying 40% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020).

• 6 GW of mixed renewables are on average required.

• Diversification and dispersion improve matching.

• Balancing is needed (dispatchableplant, storage, interconnectors).

Page 34


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study

• Apply renewable time series in AC power flow analysis.

• Examine marine/wind energy deliveryto the demand centres with changes in– weather patterns– demand– network

Page 35


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study - Area• Orkney and

Northern Highlands

• Wind, wave and tidal current resources.

• Existing wind farms, EMEC test centres.

100

80

60

20

40

60

80

6080

100

100

60

60

Westray

Sanday

Stronsay

Eday

Shapinsay

SouthRonaldsay

Hoy

Wick

Thurso

Halkirk

KirkwallStromness

SuleSkerry

Rousay

H i g h l a n d

OrkneyMainland

ScapaFlow

PentlandFirth

EMECtest site

EMECtest site

20 km0

Burray

Bu Farm

Spurness

Burgar Hill

Gruff

Stroupster

Forss

Scoolary

Burn ofWhilk

Causeymire

Spittal Hill

BroubsterForest

Strathy South

Strathy North

MelvichAckron

Bardnaheigh

South Shebster

Boulfruich,Dunbeath

Wind farmsoperational

consented or planned

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Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study - Constraints• Development

constraintsinfluence the selection of renewable generation sites.

• Same parameters as for “matching study” used. Wick

Airport 20 km0

KirkwallAirport

15 kmradius

30 kmradius

Navigational risk

notassessed

verylow

low

medium

high

National Scenic Area

High environmental

sensitivity

Medium environmental

sensitivity

Average slope > 15%

Page 37


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study - Power System• Existing and

new generation mapped.

• Time seriesof power (hourly, one year) created.

• Network modelled.

Limit

Page 38


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

0

25

50

75

100


0

25

50

75

100


Orkney with existing & new generationDemand Matching January 2003

(MW)

(MW)Onshore wind(a) new(b) existing

Tidal current

Wave

40%

, 100

% d

eman

d

27 Jan

27 Jan

Outage of one undersea cable

Unconstrained

Page 39


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study - Line LoadingOrkney – Mainland

undersea cableSelected Orkney undersea cables

Selected overhead line

Scenarios: 1 Orkney - Mainland undersea cable, 1E = existing generation, 1N = existing + new generation

Page 40


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Case Study - Results

• Power flows (in PSS/E) can be run with 26,280 time steps instead of just 2 annual simulations.

• Line loading, voltage levels, reactor usage and required diesel backup can be examined.

• RE generation curtailment due to network issues can be estimated.

Page 41


Systems


with Demand

UNESPPresentation

Nov 2006

Comments (cntd.)

“Fucking brilliant piece of work!”Dr. Robin Wallace (co-author)

Documents

Institute for Energy Systems Matching Renewable …...Page 2 Institute for Energy Systems Matching Renewable Electricity Generation with Demand UNESP Presentation Nov 2006 Comments