Upload
betty
View
35
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
BioChain – First Project partners workshop Lise Skovsgaard Economic Ph.d. within WP1 Title : Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation DTU Management Engineering January, 2014. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
BioChain – First Project partners workshop
Lise SkovsgaardEconomic Ph.d. within WP1Title: Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation
DTU Management EngineeringJanuary, 2014
2 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Lise Skovsgaard – "Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation" – my Ph.d. project within WP1
3 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Lise Skovsgaard – "Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation" – my Ph.d. project within WP1
Input markets
Output markets
Regulation
Risk
4 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Lise Skovsgaard – "Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation" – my Ph.d. project within WP1
Areas of concern from study plan:• Risk: Which risk issues are more determining for the investment decision,
and can tools be found to reduce this risk?• Mix of market- and ownership structures: How does this mix
influence the biogas production and could a change in structure change the chances for profit?
• Regulation: How does the existing regulation in the energy- and agricultural sectors affect the biogas production? And can changed regulation improve chances for profit?
Input markets
Output markets
Regulation
Risk
Regulation: How does the existing regulation in the energy- and agricultural sectors affect the biogas production? And can changed regulation improve chances for profit?
5 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
In international competition, high environmental regulation – high risk need for high risk premium
Examples, for my choice of focus, General example Regulation: Risk, ownership structures, regulation on natural monopoly, regulation on subsidies, regulation on input- Until November 2013, support for biogas came through the Combined Heat and Power production clear limitations on scale
Local farmer Biogas production
Local CHP
Monopoly regulated and low risk regulated input price low biogas priceNot always allowed to own biogas plant
Who should produce the biogas?- who can?- who will?
6 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Capital was too expensive closed potential for ownership
Examples, for my choice of focus, Måbjerg Bioenergy Regulation and risk: Capital - ownership structures, environmental/planning regulation long delays/further insecurity/risk
Local farmer Biogas production
Local CHP
Probably too small, not interested or not allowed by regulatorWho should own the
biogas facility?- The local municipality
7 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Owned by the local municipality- Regulated as natural monopoly – low risk
Examples, where the areas of concern are relevant, Fredericia Waste water Regulation and risk: Regulation, costs, synergy
Biogas production
Own CHP
Ownership and investments are minor problems
Waste water treatment
Monopoly regulated and low risk regulated input price low biogas priceNot always allowed to own biogas plant
Upgradet biogas – private owner
Busses for the
municipality
- What happens when new investments and synergy opportunities appear….???
8 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Examples, where the areas of concern are relevant, Foulum Input mix and costs
Already now some inputs are not tested, as they are too expensive as input ® ® the significance of
prices in our workManureBiomass..?
Local farmer Biogas production
Other input- Maize, beats….- Fish waste- Waste from dairy or
slaughterhouses- Glycerin
9 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Lise Skovsgaard – "Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation" – my Ph.d. project within WP1
Plant level model optimising at plant level
• National level model optimising at national level
• Linking to Balmorel – Energy Systems Model
Soon – input to Ida
Price methodsLater – but focus
already
10 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
WP12013 Aug-13 2014 Aug-14 2015 Aug-15 2016 Aug-16
q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4
WP2WP3 D
WP4 M D
WP5 DLise
2013 Aug-13 2014 Aug-14 2015 Aug-15 2016 Aug-16q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4
Economic analysis D + Input for VCModel
Price methods M Finishing PhD
Attending Data collection M VCModel development, National level
Linking to Balmorel
Gas production and organinc pool modelCarbon storage simulations
Cost of Logistics
Value Chain D Description
Value Chain Model, D National level
Linking to D Balmorel
Value Chain Model, D Plant level
Price methods M
Data collection D Decision support model D
Lise Skovsgaard – "Biogas Value Chain – Microeconomic Incentives and Policy regulation" – Time schedule
11 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Price methods
Manure
Biogas production
Other input- Mais, beats….- Fish waste- Waste from dairy or
slaughterhouses
Treated manure- fertilizer- improved environment
- phosphorus, NH4, CO2, Nitrate…?
- more animals?...
Waste water
Waste?...
What is focus? – What will determine the price(s)?- Demand? (which?)
- Renewable energy?- Treated manure
improved environment- Supply?
- Waste treatment?- Excess biomass?
Energy- Heat (and power?)- Biogas
- for CHP- for industry- for transport
Relevant issues- Supply/demand
- regulation- Logistics- Substitutability
Relevant issues- Regulation
- Environment- Agriculture- CO2/RES
- Competing markets/substitution
- Gas- Heat- Power
12 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
What I would like from you!! Input on
- Regulation – particularly agriculture- Costs- Relevant chemical/physical issue, needed to be taken into account…
- Data on potential biogas plants