INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING AS A SYSTEMIC INSTRUMENT FOR POLICY DESIGN Ahlqvist, Toni, Valovirta, Ville & Loikkanen, Torsti VTT Technical Research Centre

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING AS A SYSTEMIC INSTRUMENT FOR POLICY DESIGN

Ahlqvist, Toni, Valovirta, Ville & Loikkanen, Torsti

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...

Background

Systemicity, foresight and policy rationales

• Systemicity– Organizations participating in the emergence, diffusion and embedding innovations, e.g. universities, public and private R&D organisations, enterprises, intermediate organisations (e.g. Smits et al . 2010)–Technological systems, referring to networks of agents interacting in a specific economic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure or a set of infrastructures (e.g. Carlsson & Stankiewicz 1991)– Systemic interactions of technologies and innovations, e.g. socio-technological landscapes, socio-technical regimes, niche-level innovations (Geels 2004)

• Systemicity and foresight– Different functions of foresight (e.g. Da Costa et al. 2008; Weber et al. 2009)– Policy rationales (e.g. Georghiou & Keenan 2006)

• Transition management– Multi-level perspective of transition management (e.g. Rotmans et al. 2001)


Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping

Integrating perspectives of the case studies

• Varied cases paved to road towards the emergence of innovation policy roadmapping

• Three examples, similar needs

1) Cases dealt with local needs for strategic intervention in a situation of potential lock-in and limited information

2) Cases were realised in systemic settings that highlighted interrelations, feedback loops, multidirectional causalities etc.

3) A need to form policy-type, synthesising statements and directions on the basis of the information produced by the projects


Using roadmaps in strategy processes

Markets

State-of-the-art Short-term (1–5 years) Long-term (5–15 years)

ME

TA

RO

AD

MA

PIN

VIS

IO

Tech-nologies

Productsand

solutions

Drivers

TH

EM

AT

IC V

ISIO

N: N

ET

WO

RK

ED

BU

ILD

ING

SE

RV

ICE

S

Repairs: technicalsolutions for non-

disruptive installation

Sensors connectingbuilding functions

Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products

Need for inter-equipment communication

Sensor networks, power-supply-

free

Sensor solutions: e.g. RFID, pressure

detector

Integratedsystems

Markets for "insecurity"

Location services

Customizated / multi-sensory

user interfaces

Collectingroom

information

Standardizationof ICT

Smarthome /

buildingmachine

Self-controllingsystems

Remote readingand monitoring,

two-waycommunication

Getting the correct data – RFID, sensors, event logs

Interactive userinterface

Adapting building system (controlled byusage)

Sensors e.g. for measuringtemperatureand humidity

Motiondetectors

Built-in sensorsin structures

RFID

Sensor networks

Several automation system deliveriesand automation bus standards

Fragmented markets; not advancedbusiness models

Building operatingsystem

Demand for quality indoor conditions

Model-basedlife-cycle

desing and visualization

Plug-and-play-equipment

User-specificpersonification

Emphasizing of individual requirements

Building services solutions for different bus standards

Utilisation of self-made "de facto"-standard solutions

Tailored single ICT-solutions

Markets

State-of-the-art Short-term (1–5 years) Long-term (5–15 years)

ME

TA

RO

AD

MA

PIN

VIS

IO

Tech-nologies

Productsand

solutions

Drivers

TH

EM

AT

IC V

ISIO

N: N

ET

WO

RK

ED

BU

ILD

ING

SE

RV

ICE

S

Repairs: technicalsolutions for non-

disruptive installation

Sensors connectingbuilding functions

Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products

Need for inter-equipment communication

Sensor networks, power-supply-

free

Sensor solutions: e.g. RFID, pressure

detector

Integratedsystems

Markets for "insecurity"

Location services

Customizated / multi-sensory

user interfaces

Collectingroom

information

Standardizationof ICT

Smarthome /

buildingmachine

Self-controllingsystems

Remote readingand monitoring,

two-waycommunication

Getting the correct data – RFID, sensors, event logs

Interactive userinterface

Adapting building system (controlled byusage)

Sensors e.g. for measuringtemperatureand humidity

Motiondetectors

Built-in sensorsin structures

RFID

Sensor networks

Several automation system deliveriesand automation bus standards

Fragmented markets; not advancedbusiness models

Building operatingsystem

Demand for quality indoor conditions

Model-basedlife-cycle

desing and visualization

Plug-and-play-equipment

User-specificpersonification

Emphasizing of individual requirements

Building services solutions for different bus standards

Utilisation of self-made "de facto"-standard solutions

Tailored single ICT-solutions

5. Identifying single strategic elements in roadmap structure

1. Creation of a common vision

4. Visionary strategizing: aligning societal drivers, markets, solutions

and technologies in a timeframe

6. Identifying logical temporal sequences on a

topic, e.g. technologies

2. Identifying societal needs

that should guide the technological

development

3. Demand articulation: description of common

understanding about future societal and

market needs



Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP)

• Focus in material and environmental technologies– Identification of key niches in these technology fields– Building capabilities for market creation in these technology fields

• Project tried to come to terms with spatial relations and regional specificities of the economy, the uneven distribution of resources and the future-oriented activities that would be required to re-direct the regional capacities

• This project also initiated an expert-based assessment process for evaluating emerging technologies, markets and technology risk



Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Energian hallinta

Valoa tuottavat pinnat

Monitoroivat pinnat

Introduction to Markets

Business Potential= size of the ball

Larger

TechnologyRisk

Smaller

VTT Expert assessment of three technology areas

Technology area 1

Technology area 2

Technology area 3Each circle represents emerging technology, such as:

• New surface technologies and sensory coatings

• Intelligent and functional coatings

• Biomaterials and bio-active materials

• Etc.

Logos



Case II: Roadmap for Spanish natural gas company

• A technology roadmap study on in the field of gas transportation and distribution for the company distributing natural gas primarily for the households in the Northern Spain

• Future oriented analysis of drivers, products and markets, and technologies in the area of gas transportation and distribution

• In collaboration with the local business consulting company having a long cooperation background with the natural gas company

• Various relevant aspects of different technology fields related, for example to coating of gas pipelines, smart grids, gas transportation techniques, energy markets and life cycle perspectives



Case III: Victoria Technology Roadmap

• The purpose of the Victoria Technology Roadmap was to identify key technological trends which can provide sustainable competitive advantage for the region in the future

• The overall aim was to build a synthesising picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, until the year 2020

• The project utilised roadmapping methodology to assess the impacts of emerging technologies and their convergence on the industrial structures in the Victoria region

• A specific outcome was policy recommendations, conclusions and related actions on the basis of the roadmapping process

• Nine economic sectors were analysed in detail and roadmapped in the project


Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM)

Brief outline

• Aims at systematic analysis of new and future-oriented topics and ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development

• Method could also be used for the identification and framing of radical innovations

• IPRM integrates the approach of technology foresight with system theoretical thinking, and is built for exploration of links between technological and societal developments

• There are two levels of inspection in IPRM:– the level of systemic transformation (transformation roadmap)– the level technologies and enablers (technology roadmaps)



Systemic transformation roadmap (STRM)

Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4

Landscapedrivers:

state, federal, global

PresentPresent Medium Medium termterm Long Long termterm

Vis

ion

be

yon

dth

e lo

ng

term

Ta

rge

t



Technology Roadmap 1 (see next slide)

Ta

rge

tT

arg

et

Ta

rge

t

Policy and regulatory

changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:

convergence, disruptions

Key technological

opportunities: enablers, emerging

technologies



ThemeTheme / / sectorsector


Landscapedrivers:



Vis

ion

be

yon

dth

e lo

ng

term

Ta

rge

t




Ta

rge

tT

arg

et

Ta

rge

t


changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:


Key technological


technologies






Technology roadmap (TRM)

TechnologyTechnology RoadmapRoadmap TopicTopic NN

Present stageTechnology

developments 2Technology


developments 4Core technology

evolution


Vis

ion

be

yon

dth

e lo

ng

term

Ta

rge

t




developments 4

Present stageNeeds and

marketdevelopments 2

Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Ta

rge

tT

arg

et

Ta

rge

t

Linkedtechnologies, convergence

Needs and markets:

segments, geography

Capabilities, resources,

actors (CRA): global,

European, Finnish, sectoral

CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Vis

ion

be

yon

dth

e lo

ng

term

Ta

rge

t




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Ta

rge

tT

arg

et

Ta

rge

t


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4



Connections between STRM and TRMs


Landscapedrivers:



Visio

n b

eyo

nd

the lo

ng

term

Targ

et




Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:


Key technological


technologies





Landscapedrivers:



Visio

n b

eyo

nd

the lo

ng

term

Targ

et




Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:


Key technological


technologies









evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4


Landscapedrivers:



Visio

n b

eyo

nd

the lo

ng

term

Targ

et




Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:


Key technological


technologies





Landscapedrivers:



Visio

n b

eyo

nd

the lo

ng

term

Targ

et




Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


changes and related

instruments

Sectoralchanges:


Key technological


technologies









evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4






evolution


Visio

n b

eyon

dth

e lon

g term

Targ

et




developments 4



Needs andmarket

developments 3

Needs andmarket

developments 4

Present stage

Targ

etT

arget

Targ

et


Needs and markets:

segments, geography




CRAdevelopments 2

CRAdevelopments 3

CRAdevelopments 4


Conclusions: policy instruments and roadmapping

Roadmap element

Policies

Vision - Facilitating joint vision setting through strategy processes and foresighting

Drivers - Policies to articulate future demand

Markets - Policies aiming to facilitate creation of new markets through o regulation o taxes

- Creating demand for new products through public procurement - Support for adoption of new technologies (e.g. through subsidies for IT investments) - Support for export activities and inward investments

Products and solutions

- Policies aiming to facilitate commercialization of public research and technology development- Policies providing validation and feasibility assessment of new technologies - Creating demonstration and piloting environments for new technologies - Setting product certification and labelling schemes and requirements

Technologies - Public funding for R&D and innovation - Supporting collaborative R&D- Support for technical standardization - IPR regulation - Provision of public technical infrastructure


Conclusions: roadmaps and systemic rationale of foresight

• Innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing systemic benefits of foresight in an innovation system

– Our conclusions support the views of Georghiou and Keenan (2006) who emphasise the systemic rationale of foresight

• Potential benefits of innovation policy roadmapping– Case studies show that roadmapping is useful in various issues of strategic intervention, e.g. potential lock-ins, systemic interdependencies and provision of policy conclusions– The success of innovations is often dependent on the emergence of other complementary technologies, products and services– Diffusion of innovations often depends on changes in infrastructure, information systems, organisational practices and social institutions– Visionary perspective: strategic guidance for identifying the steps towards a vision– Nuanced perspective of temporal sequencing of the evolution of technology and innovation– Selection of policy instruments according to the level of maturity of the markets

Documents

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING AS A SYSTEMIC INSTRUMENT FOR POLICY DESIGN Ahlqvist, Toni, Valovirta, Ville & Loikkanen, Torsti VTT Technical Research Centre