Initiating Coverage Packaging Mold-Tek Packaging … advanced technology like in ... FMCG products and MTPL has been in talks with many companies like Cadbury, Amul ... Packaging Mold-Tek

Established in 1986, Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India. It is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for lubes, paints, food and other products. MTPL has seven processing plants and three stock points spread across India to ensure faster supplies. It has a huge injection molding capacity of around ~30,000 TPA.

MTPL entered the food & FMCG industry in FY16 and thus has insignificant revenue from the particular segment, as majority of the food & FMCG manufacturers' use flexible packaging. However, rigid packaging is now increasingly being used for food and FMCG products and MTPL has been in talks with many companies like Patanjali, HUL, Dabur, ITC, etc. It is already making some products for Cadbury, P&G, Amul, etc.

MTPL is setting up two new plants at Vizag (Andhra Pradesh) and Mysore (Karnataka) for Asian Paints to cater to its rising demand for paint pails. It has already procured the land and construction activity is expected to start in Q2FY18E. Both the plants will have an initial capacity of 3,000 tonnes each and are expected to become operational in H2FY19E. With commercial operations expected to start in H2FY19E, we expect the plants to generate healthy revenue from FY20E.

In November 2016, MTPL started a new facility in RAK (Dubai) to expand its geographical presence and cater to the Middle East and North African markets. The annual capacity of RAK plant is close to 3,000 tonnes. The company is aiming to utilize 70-75% of its capacity in FY18E, which would provide higher realisation at higher capacity utilisation. It is already receiving orders from paint, lube and dairy industries in the Middle East and is talks with various companies for further orders.

Mold-Tek Packaging is an integrated company which has introduced certain world class packaging products in India for paints, oil, lubricants, food and FMCG industries through continuous innovation. Over the years, it has been able to innovate and develop advanced technology like in house robots, which are half the cost of imported robots.

As per FICCI, the Indian Packaging Industry is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 18% over FY15-20E, with flexible packaging estimated to grow by 25% and rigid packaging by 15%. Mold-Tek Packaging manufactures and supplies pails for paint and lube industries and packaging containers for food and FMCG industries. The company has been focusing on the new growth sector i.e. Food and FMCG segment. We believe growth will come from these segments, while Paint and Lube will continue to remain steady. With the strong growth trajectory of the Indian economy, we expect the company to report Revenue and Net profit CAGR of 20% and 24% respectively over FY17-19E. Considering strong balance sheet, robust return ratios, low debt and proactive management, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target of Rs. 340.

Financial Summary

Religare Investment Call

June 7, 2017

Packaging

CMP (Rs)

Target Price (Rs)

Potential Upside

Sensex

Nifty

Key Stock data

BSE Code

NSE Code

Bloomberg

Shares o/s, Cr (FV 5)

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

3M Avg Volume

52 week H/L

Shareholding Pattern

(%)

Promoter

FII

DII

Others

1 Year relative price performance

274

340

24.1%

31,191

9,637

533080

MOLDTKPAC

MTEP:IN

2.8

767

61,000

315.0/154.5

Sep-16

34.8

2.6

15.2

47.4

Dec-16

35.3

2.5

15.2

47.0

Mar-17

35.8

2.4

16.0

45.8

Research Analyst

Ajay Pasari, [email protected]

Investment rationale

Outlook & Valuation

Initiating Coverage Mold-Tek Packaging Limited

Packaged for growth...BUY

Particulars, Rs cr FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Net revenue

EBITDA

OPM (%)

Adj PAT

PATM (%)

EPS, Rs

RoE (%)

P/E (x)

285

40

14.0

17

5.9

6.1

20.1

45.0

276

46

16.6

24

8.7

8.7

19.7

31.5

308

51

16.5

27

8.6

9.6

19.5

28.5

370

62

16.7

32

8.7

11.6

20.9

23.6

444

76

17.2

41

9.2

14.8

23.0

18.5 Source : Company; RSL Research

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Mold Tek Packaging Ni�y

Jun

-17

Initiating Coverage Packaging


Mold-Tek Packaging Limited

Investment rationale

Focus on Food and FMCG segment to aid revenue growth

Mold-Tek Packaging derives its revenue from segments including paints, lubricants, food and FMCG products. It manufactures and supplies pails for paint and lube industries and packaging containers for food and FMCG industries. For FY17, the segmental revenue was paint contributing 62%, lube 33%, while food and FMCG contributed 5% to the total topline.

The company entered the food and FMCG industry in FY16 and thus has insignificant revenue from the particular segment, as majority of the food and FMCG manufacturers use flexible packaging. However, rigid packaging is now increasingly being used for food and FMCG products and MTPL has been in talks with many companies like Cadbury, Amul, Patanjali, HUL, Britannia, Dabur, ITC, Haldiram, etc. It is already making some products for Cadbury, P&G, Amul, etc. The management is aiming to increase the revenue share from food and FMCG segment to 15-18% of the total sales in the next few years (from 5% in FY17).

The size of the Indian food and FMCG industry is enormous, which offers immense potential to MTPL for significant growth in the coming years. The demand for ready to eat and take away food is on the rise and companies are readily paying a bit more to improve its shelf life and packaging, which also improves brand image of the companies. With rising consumer income, changing lifestyle and increasing number of working women, we expect the demand for packaged food and FMCG products to remain strong. We expect MTPL to generate healthy revenue from food and FMCG space with increasing use of rigid packaging in the packaged food industry.

Entry in Food and FMCG segment to drive healthy revenue growth in the coming years

Revenue share from Food and FMCG segment is expected to increase from 5% in FY17 to 15-18% in the next few years

Source : Company; RSL Research

Segmental revenue : FY17 Segmental revenue : FY19-20E

62%

33%

5%

Paint Lube Food and FMCG

56%26%

18%

Paint Lube Food and FMCG

Rigid packaging industry to grow at 15% in the coming years

As per FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry), the Indian Packaging Industry is estimated to reach $72.6bn by FY20 (CAGR of 18% over FY15-20), with flexible packaging estimated to grow by 25% and rigid packaging by 15%. India's low per capita packaging consumption (at 4.3 kgs) compared to developed countries like Germany (42 kgs) and Taiwan (19 kgs) leaves significant headroom for growth in the coming years.

As per industry data, paint industry is expected to grow at 1.5-2x of GDP in the next 5 years. We expect Indian paint industry to grow at a healthy rate, in tandem with GDP growth. Increasing urbanization, growth in real estate, thrust on affordable housing will be key growth drivers for the paint industry. MTPL derives ~62% revenue from making pails for the paint industry. Its major clients include Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Kansai Nerolac, Akzo Nobel, etc. We expect the company to report revenue growth of 12-15% from the paint industry.

MTPL also manufactures lube pails for Castrol, Shell, Gulf Oil, etc., which contributes 33% to its topline. The company supplies majority of Castrol India and BP’s pail requirements. Recently it bagged contracts of exclusive supply to Shell and Exxon Mobil for a period of 5 years. Growth in lubricant volumes is directly co-related to growth in auto volumes and IIP. The Indian lubricant market underperformed over FY12-15, impacted by showdown in the GDP, automotive, infrastructure and industrial segments, however gradual recovery was seen in FY16 and FY17 until demonetization hit the auto industry in H2FY17. We feel that the lubricant industry is set to witness a turnaround over the next two to three years on the back of an anticipated revival in the autos and GDP/IIP cycle. We expect the Auto sector to witness a healthy growth, led by a decline in interest rates, cooling inflation, revival in the Capex cycle, and resuming of mining activities. We expect MTPL to report revenue growth of 5-8% from lube paint segment.

$31.7 bn $72.6 bn0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY15 FY20E

Packaging Industry to grow at CAGR of 18% over FY15-20E


Initiating Coverage


Revenue from paint and lube segments t o g r o w a t 1 2 - 1 5 % a n d 5 - 8 % respectively in the coming years

Indian packaging industry is expected to grow at CAGR of 18% over FY15-20E, with rigid packaging to grow at 15%

Mold-Tek Packaging Limited Packaging

CAGR 18%

New plants addition for Asian Paints will increase revenue from paints segment

MTPL manufactures and supplies paint lubes to paint companies namely; Asian paints, Berger Paints, Akzo Nobel and Kansai Nerolac. The paint lubes are its major revenue generating product accounting for ~62% of its total revenue. The company caters to ~20% of the total pail requirements of Asian Paints, 30-35% of Kansai Nerolac and 60-65% of Akzo Nobel.

MTPL is setting up two new plants at Vizag (Andhra Pradesh) and Mysore (Karnataka) for Asian Paints to cater to its rising demand for paint pails. It has already procured the land and construction activity is expected to start in Q2FY18E. Both the plants will have an initial capacity of 3,000 tonnes each and are expected to become operational in H2FY19E. The total investment for both plants would be close to Rs. 30-35 cr including the cost of land. With commercial operations expected to start in H2FY19E, we expect the plants to generate healthy revenue from FY20E.

Also in phase II, the capacity of the said plants can be doubled depending on the demand scenario from Asian Paints. The two plants have the potential to generate revenue of ~Rs. 300 cr over FY19-22E. Currently the company meets 20% of Asian Paints total requirements. However with two new plants, it can increase its share to 23-25% in the coming years.

Higher realizations from RAK facility at optimum capacity utilisation

In November 2016, MTPL started a new facility in RAK (Dubai) to expand its geographical presence and cater to the Middle East and North African markets. The annual capacity of RAK plant is close to 3,000 tonnes. The company is aiming to utilize 70-75% of its capacity in FY18E, which would provide higher realisation at higher capacity utilisation. It is already receiving orders from paint, lube and dairy industries in the Middle East and is talks with various companies for further orders. For instance, it is in talks with a company for hair cream and other containers.

RAK facility offers higher margins compared to Indian facilities due to lower material cost, better realizations and no income tax on earnings being a SEZ. Thus the overall profitability is expected to improve marginally (~0.5% operational margin) with revenue generation from RAK plant. We expect the company to benefit from increasing clientele and geographic presence, which can also aid its exports to other markets from its RAK facility. Apart from this, MTPL is also planning to set up a new plant in Gwalior to cater to the North Indian region.

285.0 275.7 308.3 369.9 443.9

12.3%

-3.3%

11.8%

20.0% 20.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Revenue- Rs. Cr (LHS) Growth % (YoY) - (RHS)

Initiating Coverage


MTPL is setting up two new plants for Asian Paints, which are likely to get operational in FY19E

New facility in Dubai to increase revenue and margins in the coming years


Revenue to grow at CAGR of 20% over FY17-19E led by healhty growth from Food and FMCG segment


Integrated facilities with advanced technology and constant innovation

Mold-Tek Packaging is an integrated company which has introduced certain world class packaging products in India for paints, oil, lubricants, food and FMCG industries through continuous innovation. The company decorates products using screen printing, heat transfer labeling and in-mold labeling, which is one of the modern and premium container decoration techniques globally. In late 2011, the company started developmental work on IML manufacturing through imported labels and robots. Later it developed technology to manufacture 'Inmold Lables' (IML) and 'Robots' on its own.

Being an early adopter of IML technology, MTPL quickly realized the benefits of in-mold labeling extending across multiple areas of the business, from enhanced design options and message durability to manufacturing efficiency and improved supply chain management. In-mold technology enabled a significant shift in the labeling and decoration of plastic products as parts were now removed from the injection mold fully decorated, manufacturers eliminated additional costly and time consuming post process decoration. Not only did this technology remove the necessity for a separate process, but it allowed the company to move this entire process to their injection molder, thus saving time and cost. As a result, MTPL's percentage of IML sales has gone up from 29% in FY15 to 50% in FY17, which we expect to increase further in the coming years.

The company is developing various products centric IML packaging for various food and FMCG clients. Its plants are strategically located near its customers manufacturing facilities, which reduces transportation cost and helps in maintaining low inventory levels. Over the years, it has been able to innovate and develop advanced technology like in house robots, which are half the cost of imported robots. As it design, maintain & manufacture its own molds as well as robots, it gives it an edge over its competitors. MTPL is now creating 3D robots for oxygen and moisture barrier IML, which will further add to its product categories of value added products.

Initiating Coverage


Revenue from RAK facility to improve operational margin by ~0.5% due to better realisations, lower material cost and no income tax, being a SEZ

Return ratios to increase and remain healthy due to increasing profitability

MTPL is a pioneer in innovation and adopting latest technology, which has enabled the company to develop in-house inmold labels and robots


Revenue growth from RAK facility to improve OPM%

Increasing profitability to improve ROC%


Higher revenue & capacity utilisation to improve PAT%

Increasing profitability to increase ROE%

40.0 45.8 50.7 61.6 76.3

14.0%

16.6% 16.5% 16.7%17.2%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


EBITDA- Rs. Cr (LHS) EBITDA % (RHS)

16.9 24.1 26.6 32.2 41.0

5.9%

8.7% 8.6% 8.7%

9.2%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

36.0

42.0


PAT- Rs. Cr (LHS) PAT % (RHS)

25.3%

25.8%

24.7%

26.0%

29.1%

23.0%

24.0%

25.0%

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

29.0%

30.0%


ROC %

20.1%19.7% 19.5%

20.9%

23.0%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

20.5%

21.0%

21.5%

22.0%

22.5%

23.0%

23.5%


ROE %

Initiating Coverage


Established in 1986, Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India. Mold-Tek Packaging Limited is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for lubes, paints, food and other products. MTPL has seven processing plants and three stock points spread across India to ensure faster supplies. It has a huge injection molding capacity of around ~30,000 TPA.

As a pioneer and innovator of pail packaging in India - Mold-Tek has introduced spouts and In-Mold spout concepts for the paint and lubes pails. It offers range of decorating processes and product sizes to cater to the needs of clients. Mold-Tek has a state of the art “In House Tool Room” with sophisticated Swiss and German machinery to design & produce complex molds and capable of making in house Robots. It was the first company to develop IML decorated packaging in India.

MTPL's clientele includes some of the most prominent names in paints, lube, food and FMCG industries. It also exports its products to UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Nepal and Bangladesh.

Company background


Paint Industry clientele

Lubricant Industry clientele

Food and FMCG Industry clientele

Initiating Coverage


Plastic packaging industry

The Indian packaging industry, which constituted ~4% of the global packaging industry, was valued at over $31.7bn in FY15. The industry is characterized by a few large manufacturers with a nationwide presence along with a large number of small players in the unorganized sector with a regional presence (>50% of the packaging market is unorganized). While rigid packaging constitutes nearly 75-80% of the total packaging in India, flexible packaging comprises 20-25%.

The Industry grew at a CAGR of 15.7% over FY10-15, largely driven by sectors like food processing (largest user of flexible packaging, accounting for more than 50% of the total demand) and pharmaceutical. The large and growing Indian middle class, along with the growth in organized retailing in the country continue to fuel the growth in the Indian packaging industry.

As per FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry), the Indian Packaging Industry is estimated to reach $72.6bn by FY20 (CAGR of 18% over FY15-20), with flexible packaging estimated to grow by 25% and rigid packaging by 15%. India's low per capita packaging consumption (at 4.3 kgs) compared to developed countries like Germany (42 kgs) and Taiwan (19 kgs) leaves significant headroom for growth in the coming years.

Mold-Tek Packaging is primarily engaged in rigid packaging. Thus rising pace of flexible packaging and customers shift from rigid to flexible packaging can impact its revenue and earnings.

The company has planned to set up two facilities in the next calendar year to cater to the rising demand from its major client Asian Paints. Any material changes in its client's operations or planning can adversely impact MTPL's operations and potential revenue from these plants.

MTPL has started a new facility in RAK (Dubai) to target Middle East and North African customers. It also exports its products to countries namely; UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Nepal and Bangladesh. Thus it will be impacted by adverse forex movement as well as demand scenario from these countries.


Risks

Net revenue

Expenditure

Raw material consumed

Employee cost

Other expenses

Total expenditure

EBITDA

OPM (%)

Other income

Depreciation

PBIT

Interest expenses

PBT

Exceptional items

Tax

Tax rate %

PAT

PATM (%)

EPS

Particulars, Rs cr FY16

FY18E FY15 FY19E

FY17


275.7

167.0

24.0

38.9

229.9

45.8

16.6

0.7

8.5

38.0

1.0

37.0

-0.3

12.7

34.5

24.1

8.7

8.7

369.9

223.9

33.0

51.4

308.3

61.6

16.7

2.0

11.6

52.1

3.6

48.4

0.0

16.2

33.5

32.2

8.7

11.6

285.0

185.4

21.3

38.4

245.1

40.0

14.0

0.8

8.2

32.5

7.3

25.3

0.0

8.5

33.5

16.8

5.9

6.1

443.9

267.3

39.0

61.4

367.6

76.3

17.2

2.1

13.1

65.2

3.6

61.6

0.0

20.6

33.5

41.0

9.2

14.8

308.3

185.9

28.1

43.5

257.5

50.7

16.5

1.8

9.4

43.1

2.8

40.3

0.1

13.8

34.3

26.6

8.6

9.6

P&L Account


Initiating Coverage Mold-Tek Packaging Limited Packaging


Initiating Coverage

Share Capital

Reserves & Surplus

Total Shareholder's Fund

Non-Current Liabilities

Long term borrowing

Deferred tax liability

Other long term liabilities

Long term provision

Current Liabilities

Short term borrowing

Trade payables

Short term provisions

Other current liabilities

Total liabilities

Fixed Assets

Non Current investment

Long Term loans & advances

Other non-current assets

Current Assets

Inventories

Trade receivables

Cash & Cash equivalents

Short term loans and advances

Other current assets

Total assets


FY18E FY15 FY19E

FY17P


13.9

115.1

129.0

14.1

6.6

5.4

0.3

1.7

61.0

18.6

14.3

16.6

11.4

204.0

89.5

3.5

4.3

0.7

106.0

24.1

54.8

0.8

25.2

1.1

204.0

13.9

150.8

164.7

13.5

4.8

6.1

0.2

2.4

96.9

35.5

17.4

32.0

11.9

275.0

112.4

13.2

10.9

1.2

137.4

42.8

69.5

1.2

21.5

2.4

275.0

13.8

101.8

115.7

17.0

11.0

4.4

0.3

1.3

36.7

3.5

10.0

12.2

10.9

169.3

74.3

3.2

3.6

0.5

87.7

27.7

44.2

1.0

13.6

1.2

169.3

13.9

177.0

190.9

14.3

4.8

6.7

0.3

2.6

105.0

35.5

20.5

36.7

12.2

310.1

117.2

13.2

11.4

1.2

167.1

49.6

80.6

11.8

22.6

2.5

310.1

13.9

130.2

144.1

13.0

4.8

5.8

0.2

2.2

84.9

35.5

14.7

26.5

8.2

242.0

97.0

13.2

10.3

1.2

120.3

36.2

60.4

0.9

20.5

2.3

242.0

Balance sheet



Initiating Coverage

Profit Before Tax

Add: Depreciation

Add: Interest cost

Op profit before working capital changes

Changes In working Capital

Direct taxes

Cash Flow From Operating Activities

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

Purchase of Fixed assets

Sale of Fixed assets

Net proceeds from Investment

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

Cash from Financing Activities

Proceeds from issuance of shares

Net proceeds from borrowing

Dividend (incl dividend tax)

Interest cost

Others

Cash Flow from Financing Activities

Net Cash Inflow / Outflow

Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents

Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent


FY18E FY15 FY19E

FY17P


37.1

8.7

1.0

46.8

-8.9

0.0

37.9

-24.5

0.6

-0.4

-24.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

-1.0

-12.9

-13.8

-0.2

1.0

0.8

48.4

11.6

3.6

63.6

-9.8

-16.2

37.6

-27.0

0.0

0.0

-27.0

0.0

0.0

-11.6

-3.6

5.0

-10.2

0.4

0.9

1.2

25.3

8.4

7.3

40.9

-8.6

0.0

32.4

-9.4

0.4

0.0

-9.1

54.1

0.0

0.0

-7.3

-69.7

-22.9

0.4

0.6

1.0

61.6

13.1

3.6

78.4

-10.9

-20.6

46.9

-18.0

0.0

0.0

-18.0

0.0

0.0

-14.8

-3.6

0.0

-18.4

10.5

1.2

11.8

40.5

9.4

2.8

52.7

-12.5

-13.8

26.3

-16.9

0.0

0.0

-16.9

0.0

15.1

-11.2

-2.8

-10.5

-9.4

0.1

0.8

0.9

Cash Flow statement



Initiating Coverage

Dividend per share Rs

Dividend Yield (%)

Payout %

EPS Rs

Book Value per share Rs

Profitability Ratios

EBITDA / Total income (%)

PBT/Total income (%)

NPM / Total income (%)

ROCE (%)

ROE (%)

Liquidity ratios

Debt-Equity Ratio

Current Ratio

Interest Cover Ratio

Turnover ratios

Total Asset Ratio

Fixed Assets Ratio

Debtors Velocity Overall (Days)

Inventory (Days)

Creditors Velocity (Days)

Cash Conversion cycle

GROWTH YOY%

Sales Growth %

Operating Profit %

Net Profit Growth %

VALUATION

P / E Ratio

P / BV Ratio

EV / EBITDA

Particulars FY16

FY18E FY15 FY19E

FY17P


3.2

0.6

37.3

8.7

46.6

16.6

13.4

8.7

25.8

19.7

0.2

1.7

38.8

1.5

3.6

65.5

34.3

16.1

83.7

-3.3

14.6

42.9

31.5

5.9

17.3

3.5

0.6

30.0

11.6

59.4

16.7

13.1

8.7

26.0

20.9

0.2

1.5

14.4

1.4

3.8

64.1

39.0

15.8

87.2

20.0

21.5

20.9

23.6

4.6

13.1

4.0

1.5

32.8

6.1

41.8

14.0

8.9

5.9

25.3

20.1

0.1

2.4

4.5

1.7

4.0

55.3

35.8

17.6

73.6

12.3

35.4

86.0

45.0

6.6

19.5

4.4

0.8

30.0

14.8

68.9

17.2

13.9

9.2

29.1

23.0

0.2

1.7

18.0

1.5

4.1

61.7

38.0

15.6

84.1

20.0

23.8

27.2

18.5

4.0

10.4

3.4

0.6

35.0

9.6

52.0

16.5

13.1

8.6

24.7

19.5

0.3

1.4

15.5

1.4

3.6

68.2

35.7

17.2

86.8

11.8

10.8

10.5

28.5

5.3

15.9

Key Financial ratios



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NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

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NO

NO

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