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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. Growing with technology…… February 10, 2016 BUY Analyst Omkar Tanksale +91-22- 6614 2692 [email protected] Institutional Research 1 Initiating Coverage CMP (`) Target (`) 271 352 Potential Upside Absolute Rating 29% BUY Market Info (as on February 09, 2016) BSE Sensex 24,020 Nifty S&P 7,298 Stock Detail BSE Group B BSE Code 533080 NSE Code MOLDTKPAC Bloomberg Code MTEP IN Market Cap (`bn) 3.73 Free Float (%) 65% 52wk Hi/Lo 333 / 165 Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 21415 Face Value / Div. per share (`) 10.00 / 2.00 Shares Outstanding (mn) 13.8 Shareholding Pattern (in %) Promoters Public 33.91 66.09 Financial Snapshot (`mn) Y/E Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 2,537 2,851 2,993 3,591 EBITDA 293 399 509 610 PAT 88 169 248 319 EPS 6.39 12.26 17.95 23.10 ROE (%) 17% 15% 20% 22% ROCE (%) 44% 28% 34% 37% P/E 6.26 3.26 2.23 1.73 EV/EBITDA 2.73 1.78 1.37 1.18 Share Price Performance Rel. Perf. 1Mth 3 Mths 6Mths 1Yr Mold-Tek (%) (9.2) 21.4 15.2 23.0 Sensex (%) (2.6) (7.0) (13.6) (14.0) Source: Company data, Institutional Research Company Snapshot Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India. It is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for Lubes, Paints, Food, FMCG and other industries. It is the leader in rigid plastic Packaging in India with 20% market share. It has introduced spouts and IN-Mold spouts concepts for the paint and lube pails. MTPL is pioneer in the field of IN-Mold label decoration in India. Company has seven manufacturing units in India and recently set up a plant in RAK, UAE thus taking the total capacity to 32,000 tonnes by June 2016. Investment Rationale India’s plastic packaging industry to touch $73 bn by FY20E According to a joint report by FICCI and Tata strategic management group on plastic industry, India’s plastic packaging industry is expected to grow at 18% CAGR to $73 bn by FY20E. The per capita packaging consumption in India is quite low at 4.3kg compared to 42kg and 19kg consumed in countries like Germany and Taiwan respectively. India is a growing market for plastics and consumes about 12.8 mn tonnes of plastics annually against the global consumption of 285 mn tonnes per year. Massive Opportunity in the Edible Oil Segment Company has recently entered into the Edible Oil segment with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs. All the leading brands like Godavat, Healthy Hearts, Saraiwala Oils and ConAgra foods have given full commercial orders from recent quarters after having satisfactory response from the trial orders. Edible Oil segment is a massive `10bn to `12 bn industry with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs put together. Recent correction in crude oil prices has narrowed the gap between the tin and the plastic containers. RAK plant and Indian plants expansion will take Capacity to 32,000 tonnes by June 2016E Company has recently expanded its capacities across all the Indian plants from 22,000 tonnes in FY15 to 29,000 tonnes by Mar 2016. Also recently company has set up a 3,000 tonne capacity in RAK, UAE to tap the export market. All the licenses and necessary approvals from the UAE authorities have been achieved. The capacity will be on stream by June 2016. Valuation At the CMP of `271, MTPL is trading at 15.3x, and 11.8x its FY16E, and FY17E EPS of `17.9 and `23.1. Compared to its peers; MTPL is trading at a discount P/E multiple, although its margins are better than or comparable to peers. We initiate coverage on MTPL with a BUY rating and attach a multiple of 15.2 xs to MTPL’ FY17E earnings (EPS) to arrive at the target price of `352, indicating a potential upside of 28.6%. 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd BSE SENSEX

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Page 1: Equity | India | Plastics Packaging Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd ... · PDF fileFinancial Snapshot ... Company data, Institutional Research ... MTPL has been an expert partner of the dairy

Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd.

Growing with technology…… February 10, 2016

BUY

Analyst Omkar Tanksale

+91-22- 6614 2692 [email protected] Institutional Research 1

Initiating Coverage

CMP (`) Target (`)

271 352

Potential Upside Absolute Rating

29% BUY

Market Info (as on February 09, 2016)

BSE Sensex 24,020

Nifty S&P 7,298

Stock Detail

BSE Group B

BSE Code 533080

NSE Code MOLDTKPAC

Bloomberg Code MTEP IN

Market Cap (`bn) 3.73

Free Float (%) 65%

52wk Hi/Lo 333 / 165

Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 21415

Face Value / Div. per share (`) 10.00 / 2.00

Shares Outstanding (mn) 13.8

Shareholding Pattern (in %)

Promoters Public

33.91 66.09

Financial Snapshot (`mn)

Y/E Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net Sales 2,537 2,851 2,993 3,591

EBITDA 293 399 509 610

PAT 88 169 248 319

EPS 6.39 12.26 17.95 23.10

ROE (%) 17% 15% 20% 22%

ROCE (%) 44% 28% 34% 37%

P/E 6.26 3.26 2.23 1.73

EV/EBITDA 2.73 1.78 1.37 1.18 Share Price Performance

Rel. Perf. 1Mth 3 Mths 6Mths 1Yr

Mold-Tek (%) (9.2) 21.4 15.2 23.0

Sensex (%) (2.6) (7.0) (13.6) (14.0)

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

Company Snapshot

Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India. It is involved

in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for Lubes, Paints, Food, FMCG and other industries. It is the leader in rigid plastic Packaging in India with 20% market share. It has

introduced spouts and IN-Mold spouts concepts for the paint and lube pails. MTPL is pioneer in

the field of IN-Mold label decoration in India. Company has seven manufacturing units in India

and recently set up a plant in RAK, UAE thus taking the total capacity to 32,000 tonnes by June 2016.

Investment Rationale

India’s plastic packaging industry to touch $73 bn by FY20E

According to a joint report by FICCI and Tata strategic management group on plastic industry,

India’s plastic packaging industry is expected to grow at 18% CAGR to $73 bn by FY20E. The per capita packaging consumption in India is quite low at 4.3kg compared to 42kg and 19kg

consumed in countries like Germany and Taiwan respectively. India is a growing market for

plastics and consumes about 12.8 mn tonnes of plastics annually against the global consumption of 285 mn tonnes per year.

Massive Opportunity in the Edible Oil Segment

Company has recently entered into the Edible Oil segment with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs. All the leading brands like Godavat, Healthy Hearts, Saraiwala Oils and ConAgra foods have given full

commercial orders from recent quarters after having satisfactory response from the trial orders.

Edible Oil segment is a massive `10bn to `12 bn industry with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs put

together. Recent correction in crude oil prices has narrowed the gap between the tin and the plastic containers.

RAK plant and Indian plants expansion will take Capacity to 32,000 tonnes by June 2016E Company has recently expanded its capacities across all the Indian plants from 22,000 tonnes in

FY15 to 29,000 tonnes by Mar 2016. Also recently company has set up a 3,000 tonne capacity in

RAK, UAE to tap the export market. All the licenses and necessary approvals from the UAE authorities have been achieved. The capacity will be on stream by June 2016.

Valuation

At the CMP of `271, MTPL is trading at 15.3x, and 11.8x its FY16E, and FY17E EPS of `17.9 and

`23.1. Compared to its peers; MTPL is trading at a discount P/E multiple, although its margins

are better than or comparable to peers. We initiate coverage on MTPL with a BUY rating and

attach a multiple of 15.2 xs to MTPL’ FY17E earnings (EPS) to arrive at the target price of `352,

indicating a potential upside of 28.6%.

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Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd BSE SENSEX

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 2

Index & Content

Sr. No. Topic Page No.

1 Company Background......................................... 3

2 Key Management Personnel.................................. 4

3 Business Model.................................. 5

4 Investment Rationale......................................... 7

5 Financial Overview........................................... 11

6 Key Risks........................................................ 14

7 SWOT Analysis.................................................. 14

9 Valuation & Outlook........................................... 15

10 Financials........................................................ 16

11 Disclaimer....................................................... 17

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 3

Company Background

Established in 1986, Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India. Mold-Tek Packaging Limited is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded

containers for lubes, paints, food and other products.

MTPL has seven processing plants and three stock points spread across India to ensure faster

supplies. It has a huge injection molding capacity of around 20000 TPA. As a pioneer and innovator of pail packaging in India - Mold-Tek has introduced spouts and In-Mold spout concepts

for the paint and lube pails. With in-house manufacturing capability in place, they are not

dependant on imports. MTPL uses hot runners and Beryllium - Copper inserts to make world class molds at a fraction of costs. This enables them to innovate and manufacture products with

better features making them stand above all competitors. MTPL also have more than 70

Injection Molding machinery up to 650 ton including Cincinnati, Engel, Demag, Krauss-Maffei,

and Niigata.

MTPL is the pioneers in the field of In-Mold label decoration in India. Their position as market leaders in Indian plastic packaging industry is a result of various competitive advantages.

The company also has in house packaging and labeling facility which also gives edge over the other peer companies. The company has different technologies like In mold labeling (IML), Heat

transfer labeling, sleeving and screen printing. These technologies have different use as per the

client requirement. These in house technologies also made MTPL efficient. MTPL also has strong

innovation which makes more robust business structure so protecting the contents of a packaged product has become the need of the hour. At MTPL, they ensure that our packs are protected

from counterfeiting using our advanced technologies.

Page 4: Equity | India | Plastics Packaging Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd ... · PDF fileFinancial Snapshot ... Company data, Institutional Research ... MTPL has been an expert partner of the dairy

Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 4

Key Management Personnel

MTPL is blessed with credible management that takes MTPL on the path of the growth.

Management

Janumahanti Lakshmana Rao is the Chairman and Managing Director of the Company. He holds

a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh. He also holds a post graduate diploma in management from Indian Institute of

Management, Bangalore, specializing in marketing and finance areas.

A Subramanyam, Deputy Managing Director of the company holds a bachelor’s degree from Regional Engineering College, Suratkal.

P. Venkateswara Rao holds a PG Diploma in Material Management. He is the Deputy Managing Director at Mold-Tek.

Seshu Kumari is the Financial Controller at Mold-Tek. She has over 25 years of experience in Financial and Accounting matters.

M Srinivas is the Chief General Manager and manages all seven manufacturing plants. With over

25 years of association with Mold-Tek packaging limited, he handles the Planning, Production,

Maintenance, Delivery and Product Development.

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 5

Business Model

Mold Tek Packaging operates under for business verticals such as Lube Packaging, paint

packaging, Food packaging and Bulk packaging.

The Lube packaging industry

MTPL is involved in the manufacturing of injection-molded containers for lubes. These

containers are completely leak proof since they are made as a single unit. These lubes are tamper evident due to our patented locking system.

The Paint packaging industry They have extremely attractive aesthetics with exquisite decoration to project the product. Due

to compact size and mold design, these containers are easy to store and stack. There are also

many end user benefits because of secondary uses of pails and plastic containers. Mold-Tek is India’s leading packaging specialist for paints. Their outstandingly wide range

includes numerous sizes in all shapes. Mold-Tek’s containers are stackable, rest securely on the

pallet and can be used in a shaker.

Be it classic oval, rectangular or square in shape: The broad front of MTPL’s paint buckets

provides the perfect advertising space. MTPL’s decoration processes such as In Mold Labeling

will improve client's brand recall value and have a positive effect on sales. These pails are provided with tamper proof lids so as to ensure complete safety against adulteration. The

plastic pails are available as straight walled and tapered wall in industrial and food grade

quality. Numerous optional accessories, such as paint roller screens, tinting plugs and recessed

lids – for example, to accommodate a sponge – make your product even more attractive for the consumer. Promotion covers increase the success of sales campaigns

The Food packaging industry

MTPL has latest technology and experience in manufacturing food packaging for automatic

filling. Their packaging program for food covers all volumes and satisfies the wishes of both bulk

consumers and end consumers. All Mold-Tek plants comply with a strict quality and hygiene management system that is monitored and evaluated by independent auditors. Mold-Tek is ISO

9001:2008 and ISO 22000:2005 Standards certified company.

Ice Cream

MTPL ice cream packs have photo-realistic labels on the lid and container walls that promise a

lavish ice cream experience. Optional transparent material reveals the delicious contents inside

the container. MTPL offer various highly convenient shapes and sizes for ice cream with an eye-catching appearance through IML technology. They are naturally suitable for the freezer and

have a good impact resistance.

Drink Powders

In terms of decoration, Mold-Tek’s capability to execute the in mold labeling process allows a

spectacular visual brand presentation. In the re-closable roto lock packaging, powders of any type stays fresh and clean longer. They cannot break, be dented or rust. They can be stacked

for transport and are quiet in the production run.

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 6

Dairy Products MTPL has been an expert partner of the dairy industry by serving clients like Amul and Mother

Dairy. Every day we supply thousands of containers to dairies across India. Both end consumers

and downstream users use their buckets and tubs for dairy produce. Tamper-evident closures

and sealing options provide the product with additional protection. All these features along with the IML decoration make the packaging extremely attractive.

Bulk packaging MTPL also provides Bulk containers for bulk drugs, chemicals and food. The range of products

comes in various shapes for their clients to choose from.

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 7

Investment Rationale Strong Technology and Innovation gives edge to MTPL over other packaging companies

Technology

1. In Mold Labeling - IML

MTPL is the only company in India which is having completely integrated facilities ranging from label making, mold adaptation to making in house robots.

Mold-Tek Packaging Limited introduced IML decorated packaging for the first time in India. IML uses Robots that place preprinted labels in the molds before molding the plastic flow into the mold below the label thereby fusing the label while molding itself. The technique produces

outstanding picture quality and everlasting decoration that cannot be removed.

In an ever growing sector like packaging, IML decoration would be the first choice to project the brand image of products. IML decorated thin wall containers are suitable for storage conditions,

deep freezing, and microwave and are used for food and FMCG products world over.

Advantages of IML

IML offers outstanding quality decoration, and picture quality. Photographic quality and complete container coverage. Label becomes an integral part of the pail and offers a no-label

look with high scratch resistance.

• IML operations are hands free as all handling is done by ROBOTS. Packaging is hygienic and suitable for D2F (Direct to fill) operations.

• Improves barrier properties -helps extend the shelf life of the filled goods.

• Label has better heat, moisture and chemical resistance than other types of decoration.

• Affordability – eliminates costly and messy secondary processes.

Integrated & Cost effective IML solutions from Mold-Tek

Mold-Tek has set up in house robot manufacturing, mold and label manufacturing and die-cutting machines to enable quick production of IML containers. This gives Mold-Tek flexibility

and complete cost control.

• Lower prices for IML decoration complying with international standards;

• Quick delivery, customizability and maintenance;

• No dependency on imports- in-house labels, robots & mold manufacture and maintenance.

2. Heat Transfer Labeling

Heat transfer labeling is a process where the design is printed on the release layer of a label. Upon application of heat, it is transferred on to the container.

Advantages of Heat Transfer Labeling

• Post molding operation involves different machines

• Heat Transfer labeling gives 80% coverage of print on the product

Mold-Tek has in-house heat transfer labeling facilities and also label printing facilities.

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 8

3. Shrink Sleeving

Shrink sleeving is a technique where the label is slipped onto the container and upon heating; the label shrinks and fits the container snugly. The aesthetics and picture resolutions are better

than screen printing. Shrink sleeves have a maximum decoration area that wraps around an entire product. Mold-Tek has in-house capability to manufacture shrink sleeves and offers the

best decoration that caters to clients’ needs and budgets.

Advantages of Shrink sleeves

• Durability: Shrink sleeve labels are reverse printed on transparent shrink film, sealing the inks safely. This protects the graphics from the marring and tearing.

• Visual Branding: Shrink sleeves can be custom printed with full color photographic images that wrap 360 degrees around the entire container. Unlike conventional labels, there are no space limitations and shrink sleeve labels allow for better innovation in presenting brand

identity, specialty promotions and product information.

• Tamper Free: Shrink sleeves also provide tamper free evidence by protecting lids and tops. A full body shrink sleeve can perform as a tamper evident security seal on a product

container.

4. Screen Printing

Screen printing is a process where ink is squeezed through exposed screen to the surface of the product. Screen printing is very economical when compared to other decoration options. Mold-

Tek has automatic screen printing which ensures better alignment of different colors. It is

suitable for paints and lubricant pails but is not preferred for food and FMCG product

containers. This is a very flexible printing technology, with no limitations on the thickness and nature of the material on which the printing will be carried out.

Advantages of Screen Printing

• It is an effective and economical printing methodology.

• Screen printing process is useful in applying long-lasting images to virtually any printable surface like foam board, metal, glass, fabric, vinyl, rigid plastic and many others.

• Screen printing process can apply very heavy ink coverage, resulting in a long-lasting design. This method, if used on certain coatings and additives ensures that the ink is

resistant to harsh environment for years without fading.

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 9

Innovation

1. Anticounterfeiting

The packaging industry is facing constant challenges from segments who market counterfeit or fake goods. This can adversely affect the brand image and thereby the salability of the product.

So protecting the contents of a packaged product has become the need of the hour. At Mold-

Tek, they ensure that their packs are protected from counterfeiting using their advanced technologies.

2. Square Container

Square plastic containers are equipped with handles and have square or rectangle-shaped lids. These containers are more preferable because they optimize space better than round pails.

Made of heavy-duty durable plastic, these pails are useful for dry or liquid storage.

Photographic IML decoration

• World class In-mold label decoration using ROBOTS for scratch resistant permanent branding

• Attractive display in modern trade - better brand visibility

• Tamper Proof and Stackable

• Tamper proof spout and cap to safe guard contents and your brand image

• Stackable and space saving – Saves transport costs

• Multi Utility Container

• Unique square container- More advertising space on all sides

• Airtight container with pull up spout and handle

• Extendable Spout Resistant for Easy pouring

• Extendable spout allowing easy pouring of oils

• 7 ISO plants across India with more than 70 injection molding machines to ensure timely delivery

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 10

India’s plastic packaging industry to touch $73 bn by FY20E

According to a joint report by FICCI and Tata strategic management group on plastic industry, Plastic industry is making significant contribution to economic development and growth of the various key sectors such as automotive, FMCG, Paint industry, food industry etc.

Packaging industry in India has seen a strong penetration of plastics as compared to global standards. However agricultural sector still hasn’t explored the benefits of plastics to a large

extent. Global average for plastics demand in agriculture is 8% while India

Indian plastic packaging exports has grown to double from $1.2 bn in FY07 to $2.7 bn in FY12. But fierce competition from countries likes China, Indonesia, and Taiwan can restrict the growth. Export from these value added plastic products could be a huge growth opportunity if

Indian manufacturers can increase/ maintain their manufacturing competitiveness while

ensuring high quality.

India’s plastic packaging industry is expected to grow at 18% CAGR to $73 bn by FY20E. The per capita packaging consumption in India is quite low at 4.3kg compared to 42kg and 19kg consumed in countries like Germany and Taiwan respectively. India is a growing market for

plastics and consumes about 12.8 mn tonnes of plastics annually against the global consumption

of 285 mn tonnes per year.  

 

 

 

Strong Business Strategy to attain high business growth

Massive Opportunity in the Edible Oil Segment

Company has recently entered into the Edible Oil segment with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs. All the leading brands like Godavat, Healthy Hearts, Saraiwala Oils and ConAgra foods have given full

commercial orders from recent quarters after having satisfactory response from the trial orders.

Edible Oil segment is a massive `10bn to `12 bn industry with 5 ltr and 15 ltr packs put

together. Recent correction in crude oil prices has narrowed the gap between the tin and the

plastic containers.

IML – Strong Technological edge against competitors

MTPL has developed in house IML (In Mold Labeling) technology and is the first to introduce such

technique in India in 2011. IML helps in better margins than the traditional screen printing, thereby increasing the profitability for the company. Currently the sale of IML products has risen

to 40% in Q2FY16. Company expects this to rise to 50% by FY17E.

RAK plant and Indian plants expansion will take Capacity to 32,000 tonnes by June 2016E

Company has recently expanded its capacities across all the Indian plants from 22,000 tonnes in FY15 to 29,000 tonnes by Mar 2016. Also recently company has set up a 3,000 tonne capacity in

RAK, UAE to tap the export market. All the licenses and necessary approvals from the UAE authorities have been achieved. The capacity will be on stream by June 2016.  

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 11

Financial Overview Pretax Margin

Consistent rise in top line The MTPL has shown consistent growth in the top line ensures the rising business efficiency and

and market share. As we can see from the chart given MTPL has shown phenomenal growth in

the top line. This ensures the rising business efficiency and market share is also rising.

Top line growth (Net Sales)

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

EBITDA Margins As shown in the graph below, MTPL has shown consistent EBITDA growth over the past few

quarters. This shows that MTPL has been successful in managing the operating expenses

efficiently with the rise in the top line. In the upcoming period we believe that EBITDA margin will likely to continue in the upcoming period.

EBITDA Margins

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 12

Operating Margins As shown in the graph below, MTPL has become successful in increasing the operating margins

over past few years. Consistent rise in the operating profit indicates that, MTPL has become

successful in transferring the operating cost to its customers. This also indicates rising efficiency in the business. We believe that MTPL will deliver better operating margins as they focus more

on the segments where they have higher realizations.

Operating Margins

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

Net Profit Margin

MTPL has become successful in delivering consistent and high growth in the net profit and also margins are showing consistent growth. This shows that the business of the company has

become more robust over the period of time. Large multiyear contracts, strong client addition

makes company more lucrative. We believe that MTPL will likely to report higher bottom line

growth in the upcoming future. This also makes MTPL a safer bet.

Net Profit Margin

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 13

Return Margin

ROE performance

As shown in the diagram below, we can see that ROE of the company has decline in the FY13 due to higher capital expenditure. The ROE has shown a sharp recovery after FY2013. We

believe that in the upcoming period the ROE will keep a sustainable benchmark.

ROE performance

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

Net Profit to Payout Ratio

As shown in the diagram below, we can see that ROCE of the company has decline in the FY13 due to higher capital expenditure. The ROCE has also shown a sharp recovery after FY2013. We

believe that in the upcoming period the ROCE will keep a sustainable benchmark. As marginal

debt burden and higher reserve will likely to help company to maintain the higher ROCE.

Net Profit to Payout Ratio

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 14

Key Risks

Investment Risk :

Volatility in the crude oil prices will affect the profitability of the business as

petrochemicals are the raw material of the product of material.

The company has high dependency on the particular clients as company has exposure to

limited clients.

Loss of one client can affect larger portion of the revenue.

As an OEM manufacturer company have less pricing parity. So margin improvement is a difficult task for the company.

SWOT Analysis

Source: Institutional Research

Mold-TekPackaging

Ltd.

Strengths• Strong domain focus

• Diversification of business.

• Strong management and

technology backup.

Opportunities• Further penetration in retail

sector

• Mining the existing and the new

clients

Weaknesses• High client concentration

• Single domain dependence

Threats• Slowdown in the consumer

spending

• Loss of top client

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 15

Valuation & Outlook

At the CMP of `271, MTPL is trading at 15.3x, and 11.8x its FY16E, and FY17E EPS of `17.9 and

`23.1. Compared to its peers; MTPL is trading at a discount P/E multiple, although its margins

are better than or comparable to peers. We initiate coverage on MTPL with a BUY rating and

attach a multiple of 15.2 xs to MTPL’ FY17E earnings (EPS) to arrive at the target price of `352,

indicating a potential upside of 28.6%.

1 year forward P/ E Chart

Source: Capitaline, Institutional Research

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 16

Income Statement

Y/E Mar (`mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net revenues 1,918 2,537 2,851 2,993 3,591

Operating cost 1,720 2,244 2,452 2,484 2,981

EBITDA 198 293 399 509 610

EBITDA Margin (%) 10% 12% 14% 17% 17%

Depreciation 55 69 82 90 90

Other Income 3 5 8 10 10

Interest (Net) 58 84 72 75 75

PBT 88 137 253 354 455

PBT Margin (%) 5% 5% 9% 12% 13%

Tax 30 49 84 106 137

Adjusted PAT 30 49 84 106 137

Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0

Reported PAT 58 88 169 248 319

Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (`mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Equity capital 113 113 138 138 138

Reserves & Surplus 378 412 1,018 1,127 1,315

Net worth 491 525 1,156 1,265 1,453

Total debt 218 195 109 100 115

Deferred Tax Liability 12 44 44 40 40

Total Liabilities & Equity 733 778 1,325 1,417 1,625

Net block 700 718 714 750 800

Capital WIP 26 25 27 30 30

Total fixed assets 726 743 741 780 830

Investments 32 32 32 30 30

Other Fixed Assets 5 4 5 5 5

Total Non-Current Assets 785 806 816 857 912

Debtors 350 422 442 440 450

Cash & bank 4 6 9 5 5

Loans & advances 71 74 136 190 348

Other Current Assets 3 65 12 30 30

Total Current Assets 664 850 875 940 1,108

Creditors 447 460 35 40 50

Provisions 53 85 122 115 120

Current Liab. & Prov. 716 878 366 380 395

Total Assets 733 778 1,325 1,417 1,625

Key Ratio

Y/E Mar (`mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Per Share Ratios

Fully diluted E P S 4.22 6.39 12.26 17.95 23.10

Book Value 35.58 38.04 83.77 91.68 105.28

Valuation Ratio

P/E 42.00 39.86 22.10 15.10 11.73

P/BV 1.08 2.74 3.24 2.96 2.57

EV/EBITDA 3.89 5.75 9.77 7.64 6.40

EV/Sales 0.39 0.66 1.37 1.30 1.09

Growth Ratios

Sales Growth 10% 32% 12% 5% 20%

EBITDA Growth (6)% 48% 36% 27% 20%

Net Profit Growth (38)% 52% 92% 46% 29%

EPS Growth (38)% 52% 92% 46% 29%

Common size Ratios

EBITDA Margin 10% 12% 14% 17% 17%

EBIT margin 8% 9% 11% 14% 15%

PAT margin 3% 3% 6% 8% 9%

Return ratios

RoNW 12% 17% 15% 20% 22%

RoCE 30% 44% 28% 34% 37%

Turnover ratios (days)

Debtors ( Days) 67 61 57 54 46

Creditors ( Days) 22 25 13 15 13

Net WC (Days) 3 3 5 6 7

Solvency Ratios

Total Debt/Equity 0.49 0.48 0.15 0.12 0.12

Source: Company data, Institutional Research

Cash Flow

Y/E Mar (`mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

PBT 90 147 253 354 455

Add: Depreciation 57 72 83 90 90

Other Adjustments 58 84 73 75 75

Chg. in working capital (19) (42) (86) - -

Interest paid 58 84 73 75 75

Extra Ordinary Items - - - - -

CF from operations 143 257 324 519 620

Capex (314) (111) (91) (36) (50)

Purchase of investment 22 22 4 5 5

Proceeds from Invest. Sale 1 1 (3) (3) -

Other Adjustments - - - - -

CF from Investing acti. (209) (88) (91) (31) (45)

Share appl. money received (30) (48) (85) (106) (137)

Finance Cost (84) (84) (73) (75) (75)

Dividend & dividend tax (28) (34) (55) (92) (137)

CF from Financing acti. 68 (167) (229) (493) (575)

Chg. in cash 2 2 4 (5) -

Opening cash 3 4 6 10 5

Closing cash 4 6 9 5 5

Du-Pont Analysis (%) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

PAT/ PBT 66% 64% 67% 70% 70%

PBT/ PBIT 60% 60% 78% 83% 86%

PBIT / Sales 8% 9% 11% 14% 15%

Sales / Assets 159% 181% 187% 182% 194%

Assets/ Equity 246% 267% 132% 130% 127%

ROE 12% 17% 15% 20% 22%

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Equity | India | Plastics Packaging

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. February 10, 2016

Institutional Research | Initiating Coverage 17

NOTES

Recommendation Rationale

Recommendation Expected Absolute Return (%) over 12 months

BUY >15%

ACCUMULATE <10% and >15%

NEUTRAL <-10% and <10%

REDUCE >-10% and <-20%

SELL >-10

Expected absolute returns are based on share price at market close unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside (downside) and have a 12-month

horizon. Our target price represents the fair value of the stock based upon the analyst’s discretion. We note that future price fluctuations could lead to a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for stock and our recommendation.

GEPL CAPITAL Pvt Ltd

Reg Office: D-21 Dhanraj mahal, CSM Marg, Colaba, Mumbai 400001

Analyst Certification

The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or

indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report:

Name : Omkar Tanksale

Sector : Plastics Packaging

Disclaimer:

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