Information for growth Li ion battery material market ... Pillot Presentation in AABC Juin 2011.pdfmarket share, in volume, 2010 SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020

Li ion battery material market trendspast and future

Information for growth

Christophe PILLOTAVICENNE ENERGY, Director

E-mail: [email protected]: www.avicenne.com

Presentation Outline

• The Li-ion battery market in 2010

• The Li-ion battery value chain

• Li-ion battery material market

• Forecasts & conclusions

AABC Europe 2011

6-10 June

Mainz, Germany


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AVICENNE ENERGY

Creation: 1992

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

Director: M. Madani

AVICENNE Energy Director : C. Pillot

4 consultants in Paris

Information for GrowthPowering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

AVICENNE ENERGY

AVICENNE MEDICAL

The Rechargeable Battery market

2010-2020April 2011, 20th Edition

Customized Client

Projects


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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

Conferences & Exhibitions

In Depth analysisOf applications

Top management contact network Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

Battery Users,

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

Safety

Substitution technologies:

SuperCap, Fuel cells


http://www.makita.com/Cordless_Image_View.asp?id=53

http://www.shavercentre.com/remington_r860.html

http://www.afs-guenzburg.de/xpc26standard.htm

http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Top/

http://www.thebatteryshow.com/index.php


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MORE THAN 130 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

A123 Ahlstrom Air Liquide Air Product Alcatel Amperex (ATL) Aros Securities ARC Atofina - Arkema AT Kearney Axeon Bain Battery R&D Association of

Korea B&D BHP Billiton Brand Licencing Parners (BLP) Bourns Bosch BYD Cap X Catella Carbone Lorraine CDN Cobalt CEA/LITEN Celgard Chemetall CIAPS CIBA CNRS Cogema CRU Group CSC Challenge Strategy Change DELTA

DGA Dialog Semiconductor Dow Chemical Dupont Duracell EDF Electro Energy Ener 1 Energizer ETC AB Facom Falcon Bridge Fairshild semiconductor Fameart FIST Floridienne de Chimie FMC Lithium Fortu Power Cell France Telecom Fulton Innovation GAIA GIL Import Batteries Ltd. GS Melcotec HC Starck (Bayer) HILTI Hitachi Maxell Hollingsworth & Vose Cie Honeywell HPL (High Power Lithium) Hutchinson IER IGL Export. International Component Inco

Intersil ITRI ITS Johnson Controls JBC Kodak Kruger Lazard Leclanché Legrand LG Chemical Lion cells Little Fuse Lilipucian Lynas Corp Matsushita Microsoft MTI Micro Fuel Cells Mindbranch Moltech Molycorp Motorola NCCP - Russia Nitech NKKPC – Brett Nelson Norilsk Nickel NTK Powerdex OMG Inc Panasonic Philips PK & Wise PRAYON PSA Rayovac

Renault Rhodia Saft Samsung SDI Sanik Schroder Venture Scotent Entreprise Shenzhen High Power

Technology Schott AG SKC SVE - Dassault Solvay Sony Stibat Storck Toda Kogyo TOTAL Total Wireless Solution Toyota Tyco Umicore Uniross Varta Warburgpincus World Industrial Information

Center WR Grace & Cie Zebra ZPower



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OUTLINE

1. THE LI-ION BATTERY MARKET IN 2010

2. THE LI-ION BATTERY VALUE CHAIN

3. LI-ION BATTERY MATERIAL MARKET

4. FORECASTS & CONCLUSIONS

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY


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THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET1990-2010

18,5

1,61,6

7,9

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

$ Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

30 BILLION US$ & 3-4% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010)

12,0

8,1

7,4

1,5 0,6

-

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

$

STORAGE

TRACTION

INDUSTRIAL

PORTABLE

SLI



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WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (M$)


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

M U

S$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000 - 2010

NiCd NiMH Li-ion

CAGR 00/10: +10%

CAGR 00/10: +3%

CAGR 00/10: -7%0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

M U

S$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000 - 2010

HEV

Others

Power tools

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


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WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (MWh)

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

MW

h

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 2000-2010

Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion


CAGR 00/10: +26%

CAGR 00/10: +2%

CAGR 00/10: -1%0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

MW

h

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 2000-2010

Automotive

Others

Power Tools

Portable PCs

Celllular Phones


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LI-ION IN 2010MAIN APPLICATION: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

3 800 M Li-ion cells – 22 500 MWh

8 000 M$

CAGR 2005/2010:+21% per year in volume

+10% per year in value

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3Games Others



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LIB VALUE CHAIN IN 2010

CATHODE SUPPLIERS

44 OOO T

Revenues: 1,6 B$

Gross Margin: 20-25%

ANODE SUPPLIERS

24 000 T

Revenues: 0,5 B$


ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS

15 000 T

Revenues: 0,3 B$

Gross Margin: 35%

SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS

300 M m²

Revenues: 0,5 B$

Gross Margin: > 40 %

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues: 8 B$

Gross margin: <10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,5 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues: 9,5 B$

Gross margin: <10%


-> Cell makers & raw material suppliers relationship-> Raw material new entrants-> Entry barriers for raw materials suppliers-> Raw material impact on battery efficiency-> Raw material cost and main trends


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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS


CATHODE SUPPLIERS

44 OOO T

Revenues: 1,6 B$


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Ton

s o

f A

ctiv

e C

ath

od

e m

ater

ials

Cathode active materials for Li-ion & Pol batteries, in Tons, 2000-2010

LFP

NCA

NMC

LMO

LCO

Nippon Chemical

3% Seimi Chemical2%

Nichia Corp24%

L&F2%

Umicore Korea27%

Toda Kogyo Corp6%

Chinese local12%

Matsushita 3%

BYD3%

Tanaka chem2%

Others16%

Cathode active materials suppliers market share, in volume, 2010

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020

0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion

200 000 EV in 20151M in 2020100% Li-ion

Assumptions


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ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

Hitachi Chemical

34%

Nippon Carbon

19%

JFE Chemical8%

Mitsubishi Chemical

4%

Shenzhen BTR12%

Others23%

Anode active materials suppliers market share, in volume, 2010

0 5000 10000 15000

Natural Graphite

Artificial Graphite

Meso-Phase

Amorphous Carbon

Low cristalinity

Si or Sn Type

Tons

Anode active materials by type, in volume, 2006 -2010

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006


ANODE SUPPLIERS

24 000 T

Revenues: 0,5 B$




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THE SEPARATOR FOR LIB MARKET

ASAHI29%

CELGARD23%

TORAY-TONEN

26%

UBE7%

ENTEK5%

SK9%

SUMITOMO1%

The LIB separator market worldwide in value (M $) 2010 by competitors

105 110146

196245

285

377428

473 481533

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

The LIB separator market worldwide in value (M $) 2000-2010

CAGR 2000/2010: +18%


SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS

300 M m²

Revenues: 0,5 B$

Gross Margin: > 40 %



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THE ELECTROLYTE FOR LIB MARKET


ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS

15 000 T

Revenues: 0,3 B$

Gross Margin: 35%

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Sanyo

Sony

Panasonic

SDI

LG Chem

BYD

Lishen

Others

Tons

Electrolyte suppliers & battery makersrelationship in 2010

UBE CHIEL

Mitsubishi Chem Tomiyama

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong In-house

Others

Ube21%

Mitsubishi15%

Mitsui1%Tomiyama

12%

Samsung Chiel33%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

8%

Others10%

Electrolyte suppliers, market shares in 2010


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LONG TERM HEV FORECASTFROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

AVICENNE Oct 2009

Deutsche Bank (June 2008)

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

Credit Suisse

Nomura (March 2009)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

s

HEV FORECASTS (Million)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

Deutsche Bank (June 2008)

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

IIT (March 2010)

Credit Suisse

Nomura (March 2009)


SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011


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LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICESAVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

Cellular Phones(to = 1994) Portable PCs

(to = 1994)

Power Tools(to = 2004)

AVICENNE (1)

to=2010

AVICENNE(2)

to=2010

IIT(3)

(to=2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Li-i

on

pen

etra

tio

n in

ele

ctro

nic

dev

ices

& H

EV

YEARS

(1) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario(2) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario(3) IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, Slide 5


SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011


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LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV

Li-ion is THE solution for the future

BUT, SAFETY, LIFE TIME & COST issues

Lot of technical solutions (NMC, NCA, LFP, LCO...)

Lot of EXPENSIVE Developments…

So,

Lot of JV, partnerships etc...

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

Volts 201.6 201.6

Cells 168 (28*6) 56

Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

Weight 38 kg 25 kg

T°C Range + +

Cyclability + ++

Safety

Cost

TOYOTA NISSAN HONDA FORD MITSUBISHI DAIMLER BYD AUTO BOSCH CONTINENTAL JC

PANASONIC PEVE

NEC AESC

GSY JV (HEV) LEJ (EV)

SDI SB LiMotive

SAFT JV

BYD JV in China HEV, EV

ENAX Partner

MAGNA Partner

JOINT VENTURE & STRONG PARTNERSHIP



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LI-ION BATTERY COST


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

$/k

Wh

LI-ION BATTERY COSTCELLS / PACK

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cell Pack Cell Pack $

/ k

Wh

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EVAVICENNE FORECASTS

BMS

Pack Cost

Cell Cost

Other Materials

Cathode

2015* 2020**

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year** USBAC Goal in 2020

Source : AVICENNE Compilation, March 2011


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HEV, P-HEV & EV LONG TERM FORECASTSEV ENERGY NEED: 25 MORE THAN HEV!

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Piower Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device



AVICENNE CONSERVATIVE

IIT (March 2010)

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE REALISTIC

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020


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TOTAL LIB DEMAND

Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020

0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion

200 000 EV in 20151M in 2020100% Li-ion


-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

M W

h

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 (Scenario 2)

EV25 kWh

P-HEV 10 kWh

HEV1 kWh

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

M W

h

Total battery demand (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

EV25 kWh

P-HEV 10 kWh

HEV1 kWh

Li-ion except Auto

NiMH except Auto

NiCd



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TAKEAWAYS

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices

For automotive, the battery technology is today the NiMH, we don’t expect the Li-ion to be significant on the HEV mass market in the next few years

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion

1 M EV represent roughly 20 000 MWh, or 40 000 tones of cathode materials!

1M EV represent from 3 to 5 Billion US$ revenues for Li-ion materials

EV expectations attract now large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020

M U

S$

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020 - PACK LEVEL

NiCd NiMH Li-ion NiMH for HEV Li-ion for HEV, PHEV, EV

Documents

Information for growth Li ion battery material market ... Pillot Presentation in AABC Juin 2011.pdfmarket share, in volume, 2010 SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020