INFERENCE & ATTRIBUTION

‘The greatest problem with communication is the illusion that

it has been accomplished.’G.B.Shaw

ATTRIBUTION

Attribution is:1. Observing someone else’s behaviour2. Guessing why they behaved like that

Researchers consistently find that people are very bad at attribution

Also, we tend to assume that our attributions are correct.

FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR

Lee Ross shows that:

When we are observing other people, we tend to attribute behaviour to internal causes

(personality traits, abilities, motives…)

rather than to external aspects of the situation

When we are thinking about ourselves.we tend to attribute our behaviour to situational causes

ULTIMATE ATTRIBUTION ERROR

Pettigrew found that:

When observing out-group people:we attribute bad behaviour to internal traitswe view good behaviour as an exception

When observing in-group peoplewe attribute bad behaviour to situational causeswe attribute good behaviour to internal traits

Pettigrew saw prejudice as a personality trait

OUTGROUP HOMOGENEITY BIAS

Quattrone Found thatWe see more variety among people in our own group

We see people in other groups as more homogeneous

BIASES

1. Availability 2. Familiarity3. Memorability4. Recency5. Sequence6. Sparkle7. Compatibility8. Preconception 9. Privilege10. Visual Presentation 11. Mental Effort12.Hasty Generalization13.Inconsistent Judgements 14.Over-simplification under Pressure 15.Emphasising Difference

AVAILABILITY BIAS

We are more likely to be influenced by information that is: already present, handy, or easy to findLess likely to access information that requires effort to locate it. Problem is less available information is often: more reliable more definitiveThe less accessible information could be: trade or state secrets a more accurate appraisal of a situation results of careful research

FAMILIARITY BIAS

We tend to believe whatever is most familiar, or what is an extension of the familiar.

What we have long known gets by with little scrutiny. What is made familiar enters our beliefs with less examination Repetition often has more influence than analysis / evidence.

If someone says something false a thousand times, it is still false.

Unfortunately, "common knowledge" is often incorrect. Unfamiliarity or strangeness we tend to reject, to disbelieve.

MEMORABILITY BIAS

Information that we find interesting or memorable is much more likely to influence our judgment about the probability of its occurrence.

If we can recall specific examples of an event we tend to believe that event occurs more often than it really does.

When examples cannot be brought to mind,the frequency of the event is judged to

be lower.And, of course, information you cannot remember at

all is not going to be used in making a decision

RECENCY BIAS

New information pushes out old.

We tend to favour recently gained information.

If the information arrived in a different order, our decision would have been different.

Cure this bias by: taking good notes reviewing them regularly

SEQUENCE BIAS

Greatest attention occurs at very beginning and very end.Beginning and end can be minutes or months apart Information received first or last in a sequence will be remembered better Information arriving in the middle will be unfairly discounted or ignored

If information is received a little at a time: we are biased toward the first part of the information is established. later information will receive less attention

If information is received all at once: we make a less biased selection of what to processIf all the information is together it is easier to see what is important and what is not.

SPARKLE BIAS

Lively, immediate, personal experience overwhelms theory or generalization.

We often base our personal behaviour and values on generalizations formed by single personal experienceseven if the generalizations conflict with established facts

Abstract truths, detailed statistics, moral values can be ignoredwhen strong personal experience indicates a different conclusion.

This is why people give us "razzle dazzle" instead of cogent arguments. If we are convinced that we have experienced a truth

we will often not listen to any arguments to the contrary. The emotion attached to the experience

the reality of it allthe feeling of being an eyewitnessare too much to confute.

Compatibility (Confirmation Bias)

If we want to be stable and sane,we need a pretty firm idea of what the world is like

So, we reject ideas that do not conformwith our sense of how things are.

We tend to accept ideas that agree with our beliefsand reject those that conflict.

When we are wrong, we continue to reject what is true and continue to build a false world.

To avoid this bias:examine our biases once a year

always entertain the idea that you might be wrong

PRECONCEPTION BIAS

Most information is ambiguous enough to allow more than one interpretation

Our current concerns tend to control: our perceptions

our interpretations of incoming informationSelective perception can change a person's view of reality: What people expect or wish to see, they will see We seek and give weight to information that supports

information we already believe. We depreciate or reject information that conflicts with

existing beliefs or conclusions

PRIVILEGE BIAS

Information that seems to be scarce, secret, special, or restricted gets greater value and appears more credible than information that just anybody can obtain.

The manipulators have caught on to this bias, and use it to make us want things that would

otherwise make us yawn.

VISUAL PRESENTATION BIAS

Information presented visually influences us more than information presented textually.

Visual items are immediate, graphic and colourfulWe do not need to process symbols (to

read)

But what if the text version is more accurateand the picture deceives?

What if the picture did not intend to deceive, but we interpret its message wrongly?

MENTAL EFFORT BIAS

Information that is easy to understand, presented clearly and simply, described in exact and graspable terms, is much more likely to influence us

Information that is difficult, tedious, or ambiguous is less influential

We are more persuaded by anecdotes and stories than by facts.

A good story beats a table of data any day. But is it the truth we need? not an entertaining story.

HASTY GENERALISATION

We formulate generalizations on the basis of very small samples (1-3)

The first two or three examples of something (especially if experiential, see Sparkle above) are judged to be representative, though they usually aren't.

Generalizing from one's own limited experiencethen adjusting one's interpretation of subsequent events is a major problem in life

INCONSISTENT JUDGEMENTS

We struggle to applyconsistent judgmental and evaluative strategies in similar cases.

We give information from one source more favourable treatment than information from another.

We view information received in the morning more favourably or more critically

than information received in the afternoon.

OVER-SIMPLIFICATION UNDER PRESSURE

Under pressure, we use shortcuts We simplify our models of the world

ignore complex issuesuse simpler heuristics

stereotypecollect quick impressions

pigeonholeskim

simply to cope with time or action constraints

EMPHASISING DIFFERENCE

Two differing items seen close togetherin time or in spaceappear more different than they really are

The mind exaggerates differences,perhaps to help distinguish the items.

If a report is not so good and another pretty good,one seems perfect and the other terrible.