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Inequality and Fiscal Policy
Sang‐Hyop LeeUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) &
East‐West Center (EWC)
Building Forward Fairer – Economic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and Development
Expert Group Meeting, 1‐3 December 2021 (virtual)
Overall Consideration
• A big picture• Policy target group• Effective?• Sustainable?
Aging
Housing Price
Loe f
Old‐age Poverty
Segmented Labor
Intergenerational transfer,
Inequality
HH debt
Self‐EmployedTemporary
Youth Unemployment
Employment Less
IndustrializationIMF Post‐IMF Post COVID‐19
Family Individual
Labor Capital, Asset
Inequality(Generation, job, house, education..)
Opportunity, Generation
Rising cost of children
House,Asset
Social Protection
Little social protection
High growth Low
These gears are closely linked to each otherCovid-19 has brought huge challenges. Countries are different.
1. Inequality Holistic approach is needed
Policy options (1)
• Encourage and support work?– Appropriate and inevitable. But not sufficient available jobs to meet the challenges (short term vs. long term)
– Quality (decent jobs) vs. quantity (labor force participation)– Issue on labor market structure (informal sector, segmented)
• Encourage family transfers?– Family transfers have been important support systems in Asia (important during the pandemic). But it is deteriorating.
– Singapore stresses this more than the others in Asia– May not be sustainable (decline in fertility, women’s lfpr, urbanization, consensus, etc.)
Policy options (2)• Increase public transfers? Fiscal Policy
– Inevitable for most countries.• Rising inequality and poverty• COVID‐19 • Public health and education for sub‐population can also reduce inequality (but takes long time, failing public education is an issue)
– Sustainability (issues on fiscal space + rising debt (aging) intergenerational equity)
• Reduce public transfers (for sustainability)?– Pension reform (including from PAYGO to funded system)
• Old age poverty is an issue—many Asian countries are getting old before they get rich (very different from European countries)
– Encourage (forced) saving• Limited implication on reducing inequality.
2. Finding the target group(under Covid‐19)
• The effect of the pandemic is very different across generations– Employment, labor income, and private consumption have been
affected substantially (working group)– Children of working groups are also affected.– Elderly rely more on pension and savings. Thus, additional public
support (ps) boosting labor income would have a little impact on older people.
– Government overall deficit will increase dramatically.
• National Transfer Accounts (NTA) (ntaccounts.org) may provide some useful information
National Transfer Accounts
National Accounts(NA)
Household Surveys
Census, Population Projections
Administrative Data
Other Surveys and Indicators
NTA integrates information from many different sources to provide a snapshot of the generational economy(90+ countries)
NTA integrates population into economy and consistent with National Accounts
Example of NTA: Thailand (2017)Government expenditure (benefit) and tax (burden) profiles
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Benefit (TGI) Burden (TGO)
Net Benefit (TG)
‐500
‐400
‐300
‐200
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
Benefit Burden
Case of Japan (2009)
‐1
‐0.8
‐0.6
‐0.4
‐0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Benefit Tax burden Net transfers
‐0.5
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Benefit Tax burden
Impact of Covid‐19 on consumption by age group (ratio to labor income)
Source: Sánchez‐Romero, M. (2021). Assessing the generational impact of Covid‐19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vol 20. Special Issue on Demographic Aspects of the COVID‐19 Pandemic and its Consequences.
3. Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy onReducing Inequality
We need to rely on evidences and countries are all different!—but also should be interpreted with caution.
Source: IMF, 2017. IMF Fiscal Monitor: Tracking Inequality www.imf.org
USA
GBR
AUT
BEL
DNK
FRA
DEU
ITA
LUXNLD
NOR
SWECHE
CAN
JPN
FIN
GRC
ISL
IRL
PRTESP
AUS
NZL
ISR
KOR
CZE
SVK
ESTLVA LTU
SVN
ARG
BRA
COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLV
GTM
PER
URY
VEN
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Dis
posa
ble
inco
me
Gin
i coe
ffici
ent
Market income Gini coefficient
Advanced economiesLatin America and Caribbean
Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy on Reducing Poverty by Age: South Korea
Measure the poverty rate by age using market income vs. disposable income effective tool for poverty reduction for older people
in S. Korea
Source: Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs
Poverty rate of pop. 65+ vs. total
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
Poverty rate (6
5+)
Poverty rate (Total population)
Korea
Source: OECD data portal. www.data.oecd.org, Accessed November 22, 2021
4. Sustainable?Social welfare spending as % of GDP (1980‐2019)
Source: OECD data portal. www.data.oecd.org
Financial Crisis Covid‐19 ?
Impact of Covid‐19 ondebt‐to‐output (%)
Country
Public support ps=0%
Public support ps=100%
Australia 4.89 7.75
India 2.96 6.30
Philippines 2.10 5.86
Singapore 1.99 6.18
Thailand 2.53 6.43
Japan 5.53 8.36
Thought experiment:•Demographic shock (Infected Covid-19)•Labor income shock
Year 2020= -7.5%Year 2021= -3.7%(1-ps)Year 2022= -1.8%(1-ps)
•Public support=ps
Source: Sánchez‐Romero, M. (2021). Assessing the generational impact of Covid‐19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vol 20. Special Issue on Demographic Aspects of the COVID‐19 Pandemic and its Consequences.
Per capita government transfers has increased rapidly (as ratio of labor income ages 30‐49)!
But, countries do not increase taxes as much as an increase in expenditure
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88
Japan's actual tax profiles as ratio of average labor income of 30‐49
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88
Should have been this to make fiscal balance
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Source: ntaccounts.org database.
Concluding Remarks• A big picture• Policy target group (age, gender, etc)• Effective?• Sustainable?Evidence driven policies targeting sub‐population (by age,
income level, …)The recovery should be a platform on which to build a better
nationBut no silver bullets (all countries are different).