"Industri Migas Nasional, Bahan Bakar atau Bahan Baku?”

October 23rd, 2017By: Budi Sadiman

Indonesia Statistic 2016• Population : 250 million.• GDP :USD 889 billion• GDP/Capita : USD 4.000• Growth : 5,4%• Inflation : 4.8 %• Trade volume : USD 386 billion.• Oil production : 930,000 BPD• Exchange Rate 1USD : Rp 13200,-

• Plastic industry (PP,PE,PS,PVC) MT/YearCapacity : 2,800,000 TPYProduction : 2,450,000 TPYDemand : 5.500.000 TPYImport : 2,550,000 TPY

• Recycle consumption : 500.000 TPY

Indonesia Polymer Supply demand trend

2000-2025*

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Domestic Supply Demand*Basedon5%GDPGrowth

PlannedCapacityLikelyDemand(6%GDP(growth)

Products Diversification PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk

OLEFINSPLANT

NAPHTHA

LPG

ETHYLENE

PROPYLENE

CRUDE C4

PY GAS

POLY ETHYLENE

PE DEGRADABLE

POLY PROPYLENE

PP COMPOUND

STYRENE MONOMER

BUTADIENESSBR & PBR TYRE

BUTENE-1

MTBE

BENZENE

TOLUENE

ABS, SBL,PS

PLASTIC

GREEN PLASTIC

OTOMOTIVE

PLASTIC

CO MONOMER

ADDITIVE

SOLVENT

DETERGENT

BD COMPOUND SPECIALTY

Productdiversification XYLENE PARAXYLENE POLYESTER

HydrocarbonFeed

Monomerbased

DerivativesIntermediates/Resin Converters Consumers

ABCD :

5

RawMaterial

Diversification

1.Condensate2.LPGImport3.NaturalGas4.Coal5.Biomass

Petrochemical Clusters Development

And 6 Economic Corridor

Banten Cluster

Tuban Cluster

Bontang ClusterTangguh Cluster

Balongan Cluster

CoalBasedPetrochemical NaftaBasedPetrochemical GasBasedPetrochemical

Masela Cluster

Indonesia Petchem & Plastic Industries Challanges

domestic Supply Againts polymer demand

Dependenceon Imported feedstock

CompetitivenessEntering AEC & TPP

Environment Issues/Exise on plastic Packaging. B3 Waste Case

Slower 2016/7 economic growth

7

COAL-BASED CHEMICAL TREE

Synthetic Gas

Coal

Gasification City Gas

H2 Ammonia, Urea

Acetic acid

Methyl acetate

Acetic Anhydride

DME

FischerTropsch

Power & Steam

GasolineDiesel

Waxes

Naphta

Methanol

EthylenePropylene

Priority to be developed

Coaltoenergyroute(directheat,liquidfuel):FischerTropsch,MTG,DirectCombustion

Coaltoolefinroute(keychemicalformajorpetrochemical):UOPMTO,LURGIMTP

• Indonesiacoalreserveis125billionton

• DomesticMarketObligation,ESDMMinisteryDecreeno:34,2009

Oil price Trend2014-2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

$/barel

9

Spread of Coal to Olefin vs Crude oil to olefin in January 2014 and

2015

1150

170450

1200200400600800

1000120014001600

Jun 2014 Eastern

China Nafta

Jun 2014 Mine-Mouth

China

Jan 2015 Eastern

China Nafta

Jan 2015 Mine-mouth

China

Net Raw Material Utilities Fixed CostEnvironmental Cost Transportation

OilPrice:60$/BBL

10

$134

$850

OilPrice:120$/BBL

EvaluatingVariousGasificationTechnology

o Reliabilityo Competitive

•Efficient•LowCapex

12

13

PTSango,09-2017ChinaCoal,08-2017Gending,09-2017

LatestProgressonCoaltoOlefinProject

MULTIPLIER EFEK INDUSTRI PETROKIMIA OLEFIN &

POLYOLEFINFROM NATURAL GAS (NG)

PengembanganWilayah & Industri

Pendukung

PengembanganInfrastruktur

NilaiTambah

Mengurangiimpor

PeningkatanPendapatan

Devisa

PendapatanPemerintah

(Pajak)

PenyediaanLapangan kerja

PeningkatanCommunity

Development

INDUSTRI PETROKIMIA,Pengembangan

Sektor informal Kota /daerah yang berkembang dengan adanya Insustri Petrokimia:

1. Cilegon, Banten2. Banda Aceh3. Bontang

PAPUABARAT

15

PetrochemicalClusterdevelopment

MASELA

SUMATERASELATAN

LAMPUNG

CILEGON

KALIMANTANSELATAN

KALTIM

BALONGAN

TUBAN

KALTIM

OilBasedPetcheml

CoalBasedPetcheml

GasBasedPetcheml

MethanolPlant MethanolNaturalGas

MethanolTo

Olefin

(MTO

Ethylene

Propylene

PEPlant(200)

PPPlant(450)

PE

240MMSCFD 1,720KTA

183KTA

400KTA

MethanolPlant MTOPlant

PP

PEWareHouse

PPWareHouse

PolymerPlant

PEMANFAATANGASMASELAUNTUKINDUSTRIPETROKIMIA(583KTA-POLYOLEFIN)

Investment991MUS$

Investment556MUS$

Investment556MUS$

Investment21MUS$

$134/ton($4X34)

$1200/ton

A.MethanolPlant1.Investmentcost =991MillionUS$2.Operatingcost- Rawmaterialcost =34MMBTU/T-MethanolX4US$/MMBTU =136.00US$/T-

Methanol- COGS =1.48XRawmaterialcost =201.28US$/T-

Methanol3.Arearequired =70Hectares

B.MTOPlant1.Investmentcost =556MillionUS$2.Operatingcost- Rawmaterialcost=2.6T-Methanol/T-Olefin =523.33US$/T-Olefin- COGS =1.20XRawmaterialcost =627.99US$/T-Olefin

3.Arearequired =25Hectares

C.PolymerPlant(PE&PP)1.Investmentcost- ISBL =650MillionUS$

- Polymerwarehouse =21MillionUS$(6.5Hectares)2.Operatingcost

- Rawmaterialcost=627.99US$/T-PolyOlefin- COGS =727.99US$/T-Polyolefin(ConversioncostPolyolefin=100US$/T-

Polyolefin)3.Arearequired =35Hectares

D.TotalISBLinvestment(Investment-Methanolplant+Investment-MTOPlant+InvestmentPolyolefinplant)

=991MillionUS$+556MillionUS$+650MillionUS$+21MillionUS$=2.215MillionUS$(2.2BillionUS$)

TotalInvestmentCostfromNG- Methanol– Olefin– PolyOlefin(583KTA)(2.2BillionUS$withtotalarea140Hectares)

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THANK YU