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India’s Balance of Trade with SAARC Nations: A Vicennial
Analysis
Dr. K.S. Meenakshisundaram
Director, AMET Business School, AMET Deemed to be University,
Chennai. Email: [email protected]
Dr. A.S. Kannan, Professor
Department of Management Studies, Sri Manakula Vinayagar Engineering College,
Madagadipet, Puducherry. Email: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) among 8 nations, viz.,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, is found to
be positively contributing to trade growth in the region. Many studies on SAARC in the past
covered only less than a decade and revealed mixed results as to whether India is a clear
beneficiary or not. The purpose of this study is to analyse the Balance of Trade situation
between India and SAARC nations. Data pertaining to 21 years from 1998 to 2018 as found
in World Bank database are analysed using Growth Rate Analysis, and ANOVA of Microsoft
Excel and SPSS packages. The findings revealed sustained overall growth in Net BoT position
in favour of India for the entire study period in respect of all the SAARC member-nations
though the year-on-year growth rates are found to be oscillating in many cases. The
correlation between India’s Exports and Imports with SAARC nations is found to be positive
and statistically significant. ANOVA results in significant variations in India’s Exports as well
as Imports with each of the member nations. The study failed to take into account the impact
of macro-economic variables such as Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, etc. Further research
by taking into these would be a welcome step. Moreover, future efforts may consider the
invisible imports and exports which is missed in this study.
Key Words: Balance of Trade, Growth Analysis, India, SAARC nations,
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Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1254
1.0 Introduction
The term ‘balance of trade’ (widely known as BoT) refers to the trade balance of a country vis-
à-vis its exports and imports with another country. If exports from country A exceeds imports
from the same country, then it is referred as “Trade Surplus”, conversely imports exceed
exports, it is “Trade Deficit” situation. As an emerging economy, India has trade relations with
most of the countries in the world. It has bilateral movements of goods with SAARC nations
as well. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is an intergovernmental
organisation between its member nations, viz., Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the
Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These 8-nations house more than a fifth of world
population with just about 4 percent of the global economy, according to International
Monetary Fund 2015 data.
Chart 1: Gross Domestic Product of SAARC nations in 2015 (IMF Data)
As can be seen from the above chart, India’s GDP is 8.6 times greater than its next-following-
neighbour Pakistan, 1538 times larger than the smallest economy in the group (the Maldives).
Since the formation of SAARC in Dec. 1985, India witnesses gradual increase in bilateral trade
with all the member nations. However, there are ups and downs during certain periods. As of
2019, nine nations were granted observers status on SAARC, viz., Australia, China, the
European Union, Iran, Japan, Mauritius, Myanmar, South Korea and the United States. Few
more nations have requested to be part of SAARC or an Observation nation. SAARC
Secretariat is housed at Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal.
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2.0 Brief Review of Relevant Literature
Interestingly there are several studies on India’s trade with SAARC nations with some of them
reading it from a member-country point of view. Way back in 2000, Hussain studied trade
relations of SAARC countries with reference to Bangladesh. His study found the intra-regional
investment to be low with India being the major investor. He opined that structural rigidities,
political disturbances, natural calamities, dependence on industrialised countries plague the
trade growth in the region. Venkatesh, in his 2006 dissertation, studied India’s Trade
Relationships with SAARC countries. His study specially focused on SAPTA in promoting
intra-regional trade and concluded that SAPTA did not contribute much to the development of
India’s trade with member countries. He also found that significant proportion of trade
potential was yet explored during the study period. Similar efforts were made by Akram,
Ciddikie & Khan in 2014. Their study for the period of 7 years ending 2012-13 examined
India’s bilateral trade with each of the member countries and observed the necessity to
recognise the informal trade relations among the members.
Vadra (2012) analysed India’s trade with SAARC nations for 12 years till 2010 and studied the
success of SAPTA (SAARC Preferential Trade Agreement) in enhancing the balance of trade
in favour of India. In the same year, Vilas & Babar published their work on trade among
SAARC countries. Their study took into account 7-years data from 2000 to 2006 and observed
a noticeable growth in intra-regional trade among member nations during the study period.
Ambrose and Sundarraj (2014) examined the recent trends in India’s Trade with SAARC
nations by taking into account the data from 1996 to 2013. They used OLS Regression model
using time as a dependent variable, and found that India’s Exports and Imports with
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to be statistically significant at 1% level.
Hussain et al. (2017) studied the regional trade between Pakistan and India for 60 years from
1951 to 2011, and found the decision of India declaring Pakistan as Most Favoured Nation has
resulted in trade gains in favour of India, and the status of Pakistan Government had significant
impact on mutual trade.
The role of India in binding SAARC nations with reference to cultural exchange rate is
examined by Masood (2018). He studied the four sets of soft powers, viz., state-to-state, state-
to-people, people-to-state, and people-to-people. Naseri & Sidana (2018) focused their
attention on agricultural trade relationship of India with SAARC nations. Their study covered
a decade from 2005-06 to 2014-15, and found that India’s Balance of Trade to be favourable
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
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against all SAARC neighbours, except for Afghanistan in 2006 to 2015, and Bhutan in 2007
and 2008. Elahi (2018) viewed the bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India as an dumping
issue. In his dissertation he examined a trade dispute settlement between Bangladeshi battery
exporter Rahimafrooz and Indian Government.
Arul Kumar & Gopalsamy (2019) concentrated their studies on foreign trade relationship
between India and Nepal. Their study was with special reference to agricultural products’
exports to and imports from Nepal for 5 years between 2013 and 2018. Their study found
highly positive correlation between exports to and imports from Nepal’s agricultural products.
Bhattarai’s (2020) paper analysed economic growth and development in SAARC countries and
found India’s performance is note-worthy, and other member-nations could emulate the same.
The above and other studies (which are not reviewed here for want of space) are observed to
lack a lengthy study spanning two decades or more. Furthermore, use of analytical tools are
found to be wanting in many of the above studies though not in all. This paper attempts to
bridge these gaps by studying India’s Balance of Trade with member nations for a prolonged
period of 21 years from 1998 to 2018 by using World Bank data.
3.0 Purpose and Methods
The purposes of this study are: (i) to analyse the Balance of Trade situation between India and
other SAARC countries; (ii) to ascertain the magnitude and direction of relationships between
India Exports and Imports with SAARC nations; (iii) to examine whether there are statistically
significant variations in export as well as import dealings of India with SAARC partners. In
order to attain these objectives, the study considered data from World Bank sources on India
Exports and Imports with SAARC nations for a period of 21 years (from 1998 to 2018). India
Exports and Imports data with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan
and Sri Lanka are taken into consideration for analysis. For the purpose of analysis, in addition
to descriptive statistics, compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), Year on year Growth Rate
(YoY GR), Correlation analysis, and Analysis of Variances are used.
4.0 Analysis and Discussion
This section is dealt with in four parts. The first part focuses on India’s Balance of Trade with
other SAARC nations; the BoT of India with each of the members along with the year-on-year
growth rate in BoT and the overall growth trends are analysed and interpreted. In addition to
these, the Compounded Annual Growth Rate in BoT for 3 seven years’ periods (1998 to 2004;
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1257
2005 to 2011; and 2012 to 2018) are analysed. The second part analyses the correlation of
India’s Export-Import Trade with member nations along with their levels of statistical
significance. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) in India Exports as well as Imports with
SAARC member nations are covered in the third and fourth part of this section.
4.1 India’s Balance of Trade with SAARC nations
This section of the paper presents the analysis of India’s Balance of Trade with SAARC
member nations. The Net Balance of Trade, Year-on-Year Growth in Balance of Trade and
the Linear trend in YoY Growth in BoT are presented in chart form.
Chart 2: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Afghanistan (1998 to 2018)
Chart 2 presents the trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Afghanistan for 21 years from
1998 to 2018. It can be observed that the lowest BoT was recorded in 1998 and the highest
was in 2011 (381.76 Mn USD). The YoY Growth in BoT is found to peak in 2002 (at 3535%),
with the overall growth tend to be steadily raising in the two-decades of study period. The next
chart presents the analysis with respect to BoT with Bangladesh.
-500%
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4000%
-50.00
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250.00
300.00
350.00
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450.00
Net BoT with Afghan YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Afghan)
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1258
Chart 3: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Bangladesh (1998 to 2018)
Chart 3 presents the trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Bangladesh for 21 years from 1998
to 2018. It can be observed that the lowest BoT was recorded in 1999 (651.88 Mn USD) and
the highest was in 2018 (7,927.06 Mn USD). The YoY Growth in BoT is found to peak in
2007 (at 64%) and in the years 1999 as well as 2009 it was at the lowest (-26%), with the
overall growth tend to be progressively growing in the two-decades of study period.
Chart 4: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Bhutan (1998 to 2018)
-40%
-30%
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Net BoT with B'Desh YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with B'Desh)
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3000%
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Net BoT with Bhutan YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Bhutan)
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
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Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1259
Chart 4 presents the trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Bhutan for 21 years from 1998 to
2018. It can be observed that the highest negative BoT was recorded in 1999 (-101.78 Mn
USD) and the highest positive BoT was in 2018 (398.11 Mn USD). The YoY Growth in BoT
is found to peak in 2003 (at 2619%) and in the year 2006 it was at the lowest (-639%), with the
overall growth tend to be steadily raising in the two-decades of study period.
Chart 5: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with the Maldives (1998 to 2018)
Chart 5 presents the trends in India’s Balance of Trade with the Maldives for 21 years from
1998 to 2018. While the highest net BoT with Maldives is found to occur in 2017 (206.31 Mn
USD), the lowest is recorded in 1999 (7.25 Mn USD). The Year-on-Year Growth Rate in BoT
was at the highest in 2000 (176%), the lowest growth is recorded in 2010 (-34%). The overall
trend for YoY growth in BoT is found to be continuously galloping over the study period.
-50%
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100%
150%
200%
-50.00
0.00
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Net BoT with Maldives YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Maldives)
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
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Chart 6: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Nepal (1998 to 2018)
The next chart covers BoT with Nepal. The low point of BoT is observed in 2001 and the high
point in 2018 (6,939.78 Mn USD). The lowest growth in YoY BoT is found in 1999 (-1945%)
and the highest in 2003 (1795%), with the overall growth to be gradually raising one.
Chart 7: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Pakistan (1998 to 2018)
-2500%
-2000%
-1500%
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0%
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Net BoT with Nepal YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Nepal)
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200%
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Net BoT with Pakistan YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Pakistan)
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1261
India’s BoT with Pakistan is presented in Chart 7, which indicates 2010 to be the year in the
maximum BoT is attained (1,929.55 Mn USD), and in 1999 the lowest happened. In 2006 the
highest growth rate in BoT (84%) is noticed while the lowest in 2000 (-1249%). The overall
trend is found to be gradually raising throughout the study period of 21 years.
Chart 8: Trends in India’s Balance of Trade with Sri Lanka (1998 to 2018)
The next chart deals with India’s BoT with Sri Lanka. The net BoT is computed to be the
highest (5,841.49 Mn USD) in 2014 and the lowest in 1998 (414.30 Mn USD). Quite
interesting the lowest growth rate in BoT with Sri Lanka is noted in 2009 (-43%) while the
highest growth rate happened in the succeeding year (2010, 99%). However, the overall trend
is found to be steadily progressing up over the study period.
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0%
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120%
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Net BoT with Sri Lanka YoY Growth in BoT Linear (Net BoT with Sri Lanka)
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
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Page No: 1262
Table 1 presents the Compounded Annual Growth Rate of India Exports to SAARC nations in
3 divisions of 7 years each, viz., 1998 to 2004, 2005 to 2011, and 2012 to 2018. The trends in
CAGR are shown in the analysis column using the Sparkline tools available in Microsoft Excel.
Accordingly, Afghanistan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are found to show
gradually declining trends in India Exports to these countries during the 3-broken periods.
Bhutan showed a “Fall and Rise” trend, while Exports to Bangladesh showed a “Rise and Fall”
trend in the 3-periods of seven years of CAGR computation. Following table (2) summarises
India Imports from various SAARC nations along with Sparkline analysis.
Accordingly, Afghanistan is the only country to show gradually raising trend in India Imports,
while a gradually declining trend is observed in Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka trade dealings.
“Rise and Fall” trends are observed in case of Bangladesh, Maldives, and Pakistan.
India Exports to
CAGR
(1998 to
2004)
CAGR
(2005 to
2011)
CAGR
(2012 to
2018)
TRENDS ANALYSIS
Afghanistan 39.66% 19.01% 6.15%
Bangladesh 8.08% 12.45% 8.40%
Bhutan 34.86% 12.66% 16.19%
Maldives 25.89% 9.60% 8.77%
Nepal 26.95% 18.26% 13.33%
Pakistan 21.49% 14.56% 4.40%
Sri Lanka 16.93% 14.42% 1.53%
Table 1: INDIA EXPORTS CAGR (1995 to 2018)
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998 to 2018)
India Imports
from
CAGR
(1998 to
2004)
CAGR
(2005 to
2011)
CAGR
(2012 to
2018)
TRENDS ANALYSIS
Afghanistan 8.98% 11.61% 16.01%
Bangladesh 0.25% 26.89% 6.04%
Bhutan 30.36% 13.62% 4.92%
Maldives 22.84% 41.29% 15.51%
Nepal 13.75% 5.46% -4.75%
Pakistan -9.43% 12.56% -0.80%
Sri Lanka 36.84% 4.51% 10.91%
Table 2: INDIA IMPORTS CAGR (1995 to 2018)
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998 to 2018)
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Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1263
4.2 Correlation between India Exports and Imports with SAARC countries
Based on World Bank Data for 21 years (from 1998 to 2018), correlation between India’s
Exports and Imports with each of the member nations of SAARC is determined using SPSS
and the results are summarised thus:
Table 3: Correlation Analysis of India’s EXIM trade with SAARC members
India EXIM
Trade with
Correlation
Coefficient
Level of
Significance Correlation Analysis
Afghanistan 0.928 0.0001 Highly significant and highly positive Correlation
Bangladesh 0.959 0.0001 Highly significant and highly positive Correlation
Bhutan 0.857 0.0001 Highly significant and highly positive Correlation
Maldives 0.578 0.001 Highly significant and moderately positive
Correlation
Nepal 0.622 0.0001 Highly significant and moderately positive
Correlation
Pakistan 0.925 0.0001 Highly significant and highly positive Correlation
Sri Lanka 0.886 0.0001 Highly significant and highly positive Correlation
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
Table 3 reveals that there are highly significant and highly positive correlation between India
and (i) Afghanistan, (ii) Bangladesh, (iii) Bhutan, (iv) Pakistan, and (v) Sri Lanka, and highly
significant but moderately positive correlation between India and (i) the Maldives, and (ii)
Nepal.
4.3 ANOVA in India Exports
Null hypothesis developed for testing is stated thus: “There is no significant variation in India’s
Exports to other SAARC countries”. For testing this hypothesis, Analysis of Variance with
Tukey Post-Hoc Analysis is done, and the results are presented in the following tables.
Table 4: Test of Homogeneity of Variances (India Exports)
INDIA EXPORTS to SAARC Nations Levene
Statistic df1 df2 Sig.
Based on Mean 28.55 6 140 0.0000
Based on Median 16.296 6 140 0.0000
Based on Median and with adjusted df 16.296 6 58.117 0.0000
Based on trimmed mean 24.985 6 140 0.0000
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
The test of homogeneity of variances of India Exports to various SAARC countries, as seen in
Table 4, indicates statistical significance (at 1% level) on all counts – based on mean, median,
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1264
etc. The ANOVA results (presented in Table 5) also indicates high statistical significance
(F=18.37, p-value < 0.001).
Table 5: ANOVA: India Exports to SAARC Nations
Sum of
Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Between
Groups 224320690.281 6 37386781.713
18.370 0.000 Within
Groups 284930060.512 140 2035214.718
Total 509250750.793 146
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
Further as per Table 6 Robust Tests of Equality of Means, viz., Welch and Brown-Forsythe
tests, also indicate 1% level of significance in respect of India Exports to various SAARC
members.
Table 6: Robust Tests of Equality of Means (India Exports)
India Exports to SAARC Nations Statistic** df1 df2 Sig.
Welch 25.036 6 56.311 0.000
Brown-Forsythe 18.37 6 63.14 0.000
**Asymptotically F distributed.
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
All these clearly indicate that the null hypothesis is to be rejected. Hence, it can be concluded
that there is a statistically significant variation in India Exports to SAARC nations. In order to
further break-down the levels of variation, post-hoc analysis using Tukey’s HSD measure is
done using SPSS package. The results are shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Post-Hoc Analysis: India Exports to SAARC Nations (1998-2018)
Multiple Comparisons using Tukey HSD
Dependent Variable:
India Exports
(I) SAARC
Nations
(J) SAARC
Nations
Mean
Difference (I-
J)
Std.
Error Sig.* Remarks
Bangladesh Pakistan 2,111.90 440.26 0.0000 Statistically
significant variation
(at 1% level)
observed. Null
hypothesis is
rejected. Hence,
there is a variation
in India Exports to
SAARC nations
under study.
Bangladesh Afghanistan 3,052.14 440.26 0.0000
Bangladesh Bhutan 3,179.17 440.26 0.0000
Bangladesh Maldives 3,265.96 440.26 0.0000
Nepal Afghanistan 1,824.60 440.26 0.0010
Nepal Bhutan 1,951.63 440.26 0.0000
Nepal Maldives 2,038.42 440.26 0.0000
Sri Lanka Pakistan 1,533.70 440.26 0.0120
Sri Lanka Afghanistan 2,473.94 440.26 0.0000
Sri Lanka Bhutan 2,600.97 440.26 0.0000
Sri Lanka Maldives 2,687.77 440.26 0.0000
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
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Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1265
4.4 ANOVA in India Imports
Null hypothesis developed for testing is stated thus: “There is no significant variation in India’s
Imports from other SAARC countries”. For testing this hypothesis, Analysis of Variance with
Tukey Post-Hoc Analysis is done, and the results are presented in the following tables.
Table 8: Test of Homogeneity of Variances (India Imports)
India Imports from SAARC Nations Levene
Statistic df1 df2 Sig.
Based on Mean 15.534 6 140 0.000
Based on Median 11.835 6 140 0.000
Based on Median and with adjusted df 11.835 6 60.413 0.000
Based on trimmed mean 15.767 6 140 0.000
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
The test of homogeneity of variances of India Imports from various SAARC countries, as seen
in Table 8, indicates statistical significance (at 1% level) on all counts – based on mean,
median, etc. The ANOVA results (presented in Table 9) also indicates high statistical
significance (F=16.313, p-value < 0.001). Further as per Table 10 Robust Tests of Equality of
Means, viz., Welch and Brown-Forsythe tests, also indicate 1% level of significance in respect
of India Imports from various SAARC members.
Table 9: ANOVA: India Imports from SAARC Nations
Sum of
Squares df
Mean
Square F Sig.
Between Groups 3446720.766 6 574453.461 16.313 0.000
Within Groups 4929890.579 140 35213.504
Total 8376611.346 146
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
Table 10: Robust Tests of Equality of Means (India Imports)
India Imports from SAARC Nations Statistic** df1 df2 Sig.
Welch 59.291 6 53.695 0.000
Brown-Forsythe 16.313 6 69.381 0.000
**Asymptotically F distributed.
Source: Computed based on World Bank Data (1998-2018)
All these clearly indicate that the null hypothesis is to be rejected. Hence, it can be concluded
that there is a statistically significant variation in India Imports from SAARC nations. In order
to further break-down the levels of variation, post-hoc analysis using Tukey’s HSD measure is
done using SPSS package. The results are shown in Table 11.
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Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1266
Table 11: Post-Hoc Analysis: India Imports from SAARC Nations (1998-2018)
Multiple Comparisons using Tukey HSD
Dependent Variable:
India Imports
(I) SAARC
Nations
(J) SAARC
Nations
Mean
Difference (I-
J)
Std. Error Sig.* Remarks
Maldives Sri Lanka -455.37 57.91 0.000
Statistically
significant variation
(at 1% level)
observed. Null
hypothesis is
rejected. Hence,
there is a variation
in India Imports
from SAARC
nations under study.
Nepal Maldives 397.17 57.91 0.000
Bhutan Sri Lanka -333.04 57.91 0.000
Maldives Bangladesh -330.29 57.91 0.000
Afghanistan Sri Lanka -324.32 57.91 0.000
Pakistan Maldives 282.22 57.91 0.000
Bhutan Nepal -274.85 57.91 0.000
Nepal Afghanistan 266.13 57.91 0.000
Bangladesh Bhutan 207.97 57.91 0.008
Bangladesh Afghanistan 199.25 57.91 0.013
5.0 Major Findings
The following can be summarised as key findings of the study:
The Net Balance of Trade of India with other SAARC member nations for 21 years period
from 1998 to 2018 are investigated and found that except Bhutan with whom India’s
Balance of Trade is found to be quite oscillating, the BoT position is gradually raising in
case of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Nepal. In respect of Pakistan and Sri
Lanka the net BoT of India is facing ups and downs – however all times on the positive
side only, indicating that the Exports from India far exceed Imports to India from these two
nations. Further, it is observed that the overall BoT position for India is progressively
raising over the entire study period in respect of all the seven SAARC countries. This
indicates that extending trade relations among SAARC nations has turned out to be highly
beneficial for India (since the Balance of Trade is positive and gradually raising in respect
of all other SAARC nations).
The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) computed for 7-years period from 1998 to
2004, 2005 to 2011, and 2012 to 2018 are found to be:
o In respect of India Exports: Except Bhutan and Bangladesh (which shows ups and
downs in CAGR), all other nations have shown gradually declining annual growth
rates in exports to them.
o In respect of India Imports: Afghanistan is the sole country to register gradually
raising trends in India Imports, with Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka showing
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1267
gradually declining trends, and mixed trends in respect of Bangladesh, Maldives
and Pakistan.
The correlation between India Exports and Imports with SAARC countries is found to be:
o Highly significant and highly positive in respect of Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and
o Highly significant but moderately positive in respect of Maldives and Nepal.
Analysis of Variance conducted in respect of India Exports with SAARC nations is found
to be statistically significant and resulted in the rejection of null hypothesis. Thus, it is
concluded that there are statistically significant variations in India’s exports to other
SAARC nations. Similarly, the ANOVA on India Imports are revealed that there are
statistically significant variations in India’s Imports to other SAARC countries.
5.1 Limitations of the study
The study is conducted by using 21 years’ data from World Bank pertaining to SAARC nations.
The analyses are done from India’s viewpoint. However, the study fails to consider the possible
impact of political and other issues on the Exports and Imports among SAARC nations. During
the study period, there had been one or two war-like situations between India and Pakistan,
lack of internal peace due to problems of Tamils in Sri Lanka, and the like. These are not
considered in this quantitative analysis approach of the study. Further, the possible
repercussions of invisible imports and exports on the physical movements of goods in the
international arena are not taken into account in this study.
5.2 Further Research
Future researchers on this area may try to apply regression modelling taking into account
various macro-economic factors like Gross Domestic Product of SAARC nations, the
inflationary situations prevailing in most of the developing and under-developed countries, and
the foreign exchange situation which is vital in determining the levels of imports and exports
of a country. Future studies may also include the invisible imports and exports for the purpose
of analysis.
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1268
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Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology
Volume XII, Issue II, 2020
Issn No : 1006-7930
Page No: 1269