India- Thailand Trade Relations: An AssessmentIndia- Thailand Trade Relations: An Assessment Syed Khusro Chishty, M. Afaq Khan, & Asif Akhtar Abstract India’s economic relations

1 SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 1. June 2013. Pp. 285-299

Chishty*, Khan**, & Akhtar***

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India- Thailand Trade Relations: An Assessment

Syed Khusro Chishty*, M. Afaq Khan**, & Asif Akhtar***

Abstract

India’s economic relations with Thailand are set to undergo major changes as the Indo Thai FTA

has come into force since 9 October 2003.As such this paper aims to describe the trade relation

between India and Thailand and to study the changes outcome after the signing of FTA. Thailand is a

major developing exporting country from Asia .on the other hand, India is consolidating its position

with strong domestic and external demand The developing countries studied are making efforts to

develop their exports through different paths with direct and indirect influence of government

through innovative policies and trade liberalization programme. Thailand has aimed to plug the gaps

in the exports through a focused investment promotion scheme. India is also making an effort to

develop indigenous strategy through giving focus in R&D and tightening the IPR regime. The study

India Thailand trade assessment related to export import scenario with respect to Free Trade

Agreement focusing on overall trade performance of these two countries .Also very less past research

has tried to bring out these dimensions insights into FTAs effect on overall trade volume performance.

The paper is based on the review of the existing literature on India Thailand Free trade agreement

focusing on Indian Thailand overall trade volume.FTA between Thailand and India has resulted in

lowering of tariff of the specific components mentioned in Early Harvest Scheme but whether it has

really promoted overall trade between the two countries remains a cause of concern. Which country

has better trade effects? The study is based on the secondary data and hence may not cover the latest

trend of the industry.

Key words: Free Trade Agreement, International Trade, Exports, Imports

* Syed Khusro Chishty, Research Scholar, Department of Business Studies, Aligarh

MuslimUniversity, Aligarh, India, email : [email protected], M : +91(0) 8057628176.

** M. Afaq Khan, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Studies, Aligarh Muslim University,

Aligarh, India, email : [email protected]

*** Asif .Akhtar, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Studies, Aligarh Muslim University,

Aligarh, India, email : [email protected]



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Introduction

India and Thailand share age-old bonds of cultural affinity, commercial interests and

common perceptions on various issues. These geographically proximate neighbors need to

takeadvantages of the conducive setting or the context that is provided by the history and

geography between them for mutually beneficial economic cooperation. Whether it is the

economics of neighborhood or the importance of cooperation in the competitive global

environment the economic logic suggests that both the countries muststrengthen their

economic ties in the realms of trade, investment, technology and human resources. The

complementarities on different dimensions need to be exploited so as to jointly take

advantage of the globalization process in a more effective and WTO-consistent manner.

In an effort to promote trade and investment cooperation between the two countries, a Joint

Working Group (JWG) was set up at the behest of the Prime Ministers of both the countries

for getting a Feasibility Study conducted on India-Thailand FTA. The First JWG Meeting

was held in New Delhi, India during April 2002. At this meeting, the JWG adopted its Terms

of Reference and finalized the broad structure of the feasibility study. The meeting also

agreed on a work program. The present study is the outcome of this process

Economic relations between Thailand and India received another push when India and

Thailand signed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement to enhance trade and

investment ties between them.As per agreement, the tariff concessions on 84 items of EHS

(Early Harvest scheme) list began from 1.9.2004 and have become zero for both sides from

1.9.2006. , it was expected to increase the trade between the two countries.Thailand is India‟s

second largest source of foreign direct investment, 3rd largest consumer of its merchandise

exports and its largest trading partner among ASEAN states. For Thailand, India is one of its

fastest growing trading partners among major economies.

India and Thailand comprise a free trade agreement on trade of goods and services, a bilateral

agreement on investment promotion, protection and cooperation and an improved double

taxation avoidance agreement. It also includes Mutual Recognition Agreements on quality

certification of goods and services,liberalized visa rules for professionals, and undertakings to

cooperate on several sectors likecustoms, dispute settlement, intellectual property rights,

education and e-commerce. CECA werethe first of its kind of trade agreement signed by

India and has ushered in a new model for our future bilateral and regional economic alliances.



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Though it was seen that the previous level of India Thailand trade was low, it was increasing

over time. India‟s total trade with Thailand has increased after the framework agreement for a

free trade agreement between the two countries was signed. Imports from Thailand have been

increasing at a faster rate than the increase in exports. India has enjoyed a trade surplus since

2002 - 03 to 2004 - 05 after which imports have been more predominant. Thailand‟s import

demands are high and India has great capacity to meet export supply for a large number of

commodities of Thailand‟s import demands. Thailand‟s Ratio of exports to GDP is 58.8 and

Ratio of imports to GDP is 61.( 5ASEAN statistics as of 30 April 2008)

Thailand also experienced the severe financial crisis in late nineties. Its economic growth fell

in negative to (-) 10.5% in 1998 from (-) 1.4% in 1997; the economic growth recovered to

4.4% in 1999 and 4.6% in 2000. (6ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2003; Table IV.2., pp 32.)

Currently, India and Thailand do Bilateral trade impressively in 2011 it was $8.19 billion,

Indian government data shows, Thailand Prime Minister YingluckShinawatra said India-

Thailand trade had seen a quantum jump from $1 billion to $7 billion in the last ten years,

helped by „Early Harvest' pact, limited to 82 items. Thailand Prime Minister

YingluckShinawatra said that India and Thailand would work to double the bilateral trade to

around $14 billion by 2014 (the hindu,economics times 25,26 jan 2012).

From Thailand‟s side, the FTA was advantageous suchas providing a good destination for

Thailand investors (India being one of the fastest growingeconomies worldwide), opening up

one of the world‟s largest markets to its manufacturers, andalso to fill the chronic shortage of

workers in the city-nation through India‟s large base of costeffective and skilled workers (in

IT and other professions). Some sectors set to benefit from FTA, management consulting, IT-

related fields, education and financial services including banks and asset management firms. ,

we are expected to gain considerably in the long term due to inclusion of services into the

FTA andinvestment commitments from Thailand.

This paper examines the trade relations between India and Thailand, focusing on cooperation

in the areas of export and import between the two countries. , Further, the paper also

examines how much trade is increasing after this FTA between India and Thailand. What

needs to be done more to strengthen the trade relation between India and Thailand?



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Literature review

Free trade generates immense competitive challenges for most developing countries (Dhar,

2008). Since the mid-1990s, many studies have estimated the impacts of Free trade on

economic growth, employment, poverty, income distribution and the survival of local firms.

Nonetheless, the real impact of Free trade on the global economy remains a much debated

and controversial subject (Tambunan, 2011) .According to Falvey&Kim(1992) at an

aggregate level, the broad benefits that are generated from international Free trade reform

include the following:

a) Improved resource allocation

b) Access to new and better technologies

c) Inputs and intermediate goods

d) Economies of scale and scope

e) Greater domestic competition

f) The availability of favorable growth externalities, such as the transfer of know-how.

According to Greenaway (1998), Free trade is the removal of tariff, or any other intervention

which restores the free trade set of relative prices ,changes in government policy which

reduce anti-export bias and move the relative prices of tradable towards neutrality; the

substitution of more efficient for less efficient forms of intervention. India represents

acompelling macroeconomic story, with potential to sustain high economic growth

rates.Some analysts are perhaps over-optimistic in projecting the emergence of India as

thethird largest economy in 2003 dollars by the year 2050, only behind China and the US

(Morgan Stanley,2003; Wilson and Purushothaman, 2003).India‟s domestic-led development

is considered to be sustainable, spawningseveral globally competitive firms (Khanna and

Huang, 2003). A consequence ofIndia‟s liberalization and rapid growth is the growing

involvement of Indian companies abroad (Goswami, 2003; Merchant, 2004; Ramakrishnan,

2004). India‟s GDP has been increasing over the last few decades. It has recorded an annual

average growth rate of above 5 percent approximately during the last decade . However, its

Gross National Income per capita which stood at around US Dollar 450 in year 2000 is

considerably lower than Thailand‟s Gross National Income per capita which was US Dollar

2000 in the same year (World Bank, 2002).This has expandedIndia‟s capacity to pursue its

“Look East” Policy initiated in the early 1990s withvigour (Sridharan, 1996).



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A framework agreement for the creation of a free trade area (FTA) withThailand was signed

in October 2003. Under this agreement, 84 items can be importedfrom Thailand from April

2004 at 50 % of the normal rate of duty prevailing in India.India has been engaged in

negotiations to form a Comprehensive EconomicCooperation Agreement (CECA) with

Singapore. Sub-regional cooperation betweenIndia and some of the ASEAN members such as

Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, andLaos has also accelerated (Gaur, 2003; Suryanarayana,

2003).India is also an active participant inThailand‟s initiative, Asian Cooperation Dialogue

(ACD), which has representationfrom all parts of Asia. India has contributed US$ 1 billion to

another initiative byThailand on the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) (Rajan, 2004)

Objectives

To examine the trade relations between India and Thailand.

To examine how much trade is increasing after FTA between India and Thailand.

To identify the effects on India‟s other trading partners outside the FTA.

India-Thailand Trade Relation: An Overview before and after Free Trade Agreement

(FTA)

India has trade relation with Thailand since independence. Thailand is an important trading

partner of India. Thailand ranked 20th in terms of India‟s exports (during 2000) while its rank

was 24th in terms of India‟s import basket. The amount of India‟s total exports to Thailand,

in 1999, amounted to US $547 million while the corresponding value of India‟s imports from

Thailand was US$ 622 million.

India‟s trade (around 1 per cent) with Thailand accounts for a modest proportion ofIndia‟s

total global trade and the same is true from Thailand‟s point of view as well.India‟s exports to

Thailand (as a proportion of India‟s total global exports) have

Table 1: India’s Export and Import with Thailand 1980-2000 (In million US $)

Year India’s

Export

Global

Export % share

India’s

Import

Global

Import % share

1980 47 8441 0.56 24 14822 0.16

1985 56 9214 0.61 64 16075 0.40

1991 199 17873 1.11 49 19509 0.25

1992 242 18500 1.31 67 23227 0.29

1993 318 20989 1.52 54 21269 0.25

1994 374 24196 1.55 146 25486 0.57



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1995 461 30537 1.51 146 34484 0.42

1996 434 32325 1.34 176 36055 0.49

1997 460 33248 1.38 208 39080 0.53

1998 363 36422 0.99 309 42140 0.73

1999 468 38577 1.21 492 45038 1.09

2000 547 44289 1.24 622 49724 1.25

Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistic Yearbook, 1985, 1990 and 2000/2001

Decreased between the periods 1995-1998 but have increasing trend afterwards. But India‟s

imports from Thailand (as a proportion of India‟s total imports) have consistently increased

during 1990s (except during 1994). The level of India‟s exports to Thailand was higher than

the level of India‟s imports from Thailand till 1998. It shows that India always had significant

trade surplus with Thailand, but in 1999 equation was reversed. In terms of Thailand‟s global

exports (and global imports) by countries, India‟s share more or less has increased during the

1990s although India is not an important market for Thailand, the latter‟s integration with

India has been increasing overtime. India has been one of the important markets for

Thailand‟s foreign direct outflow till 1997. Thailand has made total foreign direct investment

(approved) of Rs.24591.96 million in India.

Fig. 1: India’s export and import with Thailand (%share of India’s global export and import)

Table 2: Thailand’s Export and Import with India 1980-2000(In million US $)

Year Thailand‟s

Export

Global

Export % share

Thailand‟s

Import

Global

Import % share

1980 27 6501 0.42 44 9213 0.48



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1985 70 7123 0.98 36 9260 0.39

1991 63 28811 0.22 220 37925 0.58

1992 65 32472 0.20 291 40686 0.72

1993 74 37158 0.20 522 46065 1.13

1994 193 45583 0.42 528 54394 0.97

1995 290 57201 0.51 629 73692 0.85

1996 242 55743 0.43 640 73336 0.87

1997 294 57560 0.51 594 62804 0.95

1998 284 54489 0.52 430 43108 1.00

1999 447 61797 0.72 515 53207 0.97

2000 566 65160 0.87 602 56915 1.06

Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistic Yearbook, 1985,1990 and 2000/2001

Fig. 2: Thailand’s export and import with India (%share of Thailand’s global export and import)

Trade Over view After Free Trade Agreement

It was disclosed that Indiawas Thailand‟s 17th largesttradingpartner and the 11th largest

export destination in 2010. In addition last year, India‟s Department of Commerce listed

Thailand as the 28th largesttradingpartner of India, with trade valued at 6.7 billion US

dollars.

Fig 3:Growth in Export and Import



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Fig. 3 reflect that the average rate of growth of export to Thailand from period 2006-07 to

2010- 2011 had 20.64 percent while the average rate of growth of import to Thailand

had25.82 percent over the same period. The average growth of total trade with Thailand had

23.38 percent which shows the increasing trend.

Export - Import Analysis

India is one of Thailand‟s fastest growing trade partners among major economies. With the

initiation of FTA, there has been a significant growth in trade flows between the two

countries.Indiawas Thailand‟s 17th largesttradingpartner and the 11th largest export

destination in 2010. Since the Thailand-India Free Trade Agreement Framework was

concluded in October 2004, bilateral trade between them has tripled. However, The amount

of India‟s total exports to Thailand, in 2004 — 05, amounted to US $ 0.90 billion while the

corresponding value of India‟s imports from Thailand was US .$ 0.87 billion. By 2008 — 09,

the exports have crossed over US $ 1.9 billion and imports over US $ 2.7 billion. Following

Tables and Chart show the recent trend in Indo — Thailand trade. Thus, an overall trend in

the growth of exports and imports between India and Thailand shows that the growth in both

exports and imports has been at faster rate after the framework agreement was signed

between the two nations

Table 3: India Exports to Thailand (In US $ millions)

Source: Government of India Ministry of Commerce &Industry

Year India’s Export Global Export % share % Growth

2004 831.68 63842.55 1.30 16.94

2005 901.39 83535.94 1.07 8.38

2006 1075.31 103090.53 1.04 19.29

2007 1445.54 126414.05 1.14 34.43

2008 1810.87 163132.18 1.11 25.27

2009 1938.31 185295.36 1.04 7.04

2010 1740.16 178751.43 0.97 -10.22

2011 2792.80 251135.89 1.11 60.49



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Table 4: India’s Import with Thailand


Though it is seen that the present level of India — Thailand trade is low, it is increasing over

time. India‟s total trade with Thailand has increased especially since 2003 — 04 during

which the framework agreement for a free trade agreement between the two countries was

signed. Imports from Thailand have been increasing at a faster rate than the increase in

exports. India has enjoyed a trade surplus since 2004— 05 after which imports have been

more predominant. Thailand‟s import demands are high and India has great capacity to meet

export supply for a large number of commodities of Thailand‟s import demands. Thailand‟s

Ratio of exports to GDP is 58.8 and Ratio of imports to GDP is 61.5. Thailand also

experienced the severe financial crisis in late nineties. Its economic growth fell in negative to

(-) 10.5% in 1998 from (-) 1.4% in 1997; the economic growth recovered to 4.4% in 1999

and 4.6% in 2000.6.

Fig. 4 showing the India‟s export and import with Thailand . During 2003-04 export

increased from US $ 831.68 million to 2792.80 in 2010-11 .This was largely due to trade

openness, reduction in tariff and more openness to foreign investment and FTA agreement

between the two countries. However, on the import side, during 2003-04 the import increases

from US $ 609.65 million to 4272.09 million I US $ n 2010-11.

Year India’s

Import

Global

Import % share % Growth

2004 609.65 78149.11 0.77 60.75

2005 865.88 111517.43 0.77 42.17

2006 1211.58 149165.73 0.81 39.93

2007 1747.75 185735.24 0.94 44.25

2008 2300.93 251654.01 0.91 31.65

2009 2703.82 303696.31 0.89 17.51

2010 2931.52 288372.88 1.01 8.42

2011 4272.09 369769.13 1.15 45.73



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Fig 4: India’s overall Export/Import

Source: Export Import Bank, Ministry of Commerce, Government of India

Fig 6: India’s Export/Import Ratio


Fig 6 clearly indicate that in the earlier period the ratio between export and import is higher

as the FTA progress it become to 0.65 increasing. This may be the reason Thailand investing

more in India vis-a-vis India importing more than the exports.

Fig. 7 explores the trade deficit between the two countries. Although, in 2004-05 export

increased by 16.94 percent , but rise in import by 60.75 percent resulted in the trade surplus



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to be of the order of 222.03 US million $. This situation become fall down and India import

much more than it exports to Thailand shows the continue trade deficit.

Fig. 7: Trade Deficit


Table 5: India’s Recent Trade Performance

S.No. Year

2006-07 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11

1 Export

1,445.54 1,810.87 1,938.31 1,740.16 2,792.80

2 %Growth 25.27 7.04 -10.22 60.49

3 India's Total

Export 126,414.05 163,132.18 185,295.36 178,751.43 251,135.89

4 %Growth 29.05 13.59 -3.53 40.49

5 %Share 1.14 1.11 1.05 0.97 1.11

6 IMPORT 1,747.75 2,300.93 2,703.82 2,931.52 4,272.09

7 %Growth 31.65 17.51 8.42 45.73

8 India's Total

Import 185,735.24 251,654.01 303,696.31 288,372.88 369,769.13

9 %Growth 35.49 20.68 -5.05 28.23

10 %Share 0.94 0.91 0.89 1.02 1.16

11 TOTAL

TRADE 3,193.28 4,111.80 4,642.14 4,671.68 7,064.90

12 %Growth 28.76 12.90 0.64 51.23

13 India's Total

Trade 312,149.29 414,786.19 488,991.67 467,124.31 620,905.02

14 %Growth 32.88 17.89 -4.47 32.92

15 %Share 1.02 0.99 0.95 1.00 1.14

16 TRADE

BALANCE

17 India's Trade

Balance -59,321.19 -88,521.83

-

118,400.95 -109,621.45 -118,633.24




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The above table reflects that Thailand is India‟s Major source of export and imports in

ASEAN.India‟s exports to Thailand, however, appear to be entering a phase of moderate

growth. During the period 2006-07 and 2007-08 the rate of growth of to Thailand increased

by 25.27 percent while during the last two years that is ,2008-09 and 2009-10 the annual rate

of growth of Indian exports (in US$ value) to Thailand showed a declining trend. From the

high rate of growth Indian exports to Thailand shows a decline trend and became 10.22

percent of negative growth rate in 2009-10.

It is difficult to say at this juncture whether the declining growth trend for Indian exports

toThailand will perpetuate in the medium term. However, compared tothe other ASEAN

countries, Thailand is also a leading source of India‟s import followedclosely by Indonesia

and Singapore It is interesting to note that, while Thailand isfar ahead of other ASEAN

countries as a market for India‟s exports, as sources for India‟simports, it has close

competition from within ASEAN. This is clearly reflected in India‟s import data. India‟s

import to Thailandwas 31.65 percent in the year 2006-07 which decline to 17.51 percent in

the year 2007-08 and further recorded a declining growth rate to 8.42 percent.

Recent Developments and Some Important Issues in Reference to Thailand

India and Thailand have already cut duties on 82 products, including fruits, vegetables,

wheat, diamonds and some metals, under a framework agreement that came into operation in

September 2004. India and Thailand are aiming to abolish duties on goods traded between the

two countries by 2010. Thailand, which used to run a deficit in its trade with India, has

registered a US $ 140 million trade surplus in 2005 — 06, even before tariffs on 82 items

covered under the scheme were brought to zero.

According to government sources, Thailand wants greater market access in natural rubber,

being a major exporter of the product. However, natural rubber is expected to be a part of

India‟s negative list. In the negotiations of goods, India has agreed to eliminate tariff on more

than 4000 products in a phased manner, while 500 others will be in the sensitive list, which

will see partial duty cuts, over a period of time. Nearly 500 other items in the negative list

will not be subject to any tariff cut, so as to protect the interests of the domestic industry.



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Overall, the balance of trade has tilted in favor of Thailand with India‟s exports growing at an

average of 26% fr the past three years since 2004 — 05 till 2007 — 08 and Indian imports

growing at 38% during this period.

India needs to improve the quality of infrastructure facilities with a view to become more

competitive vis-a-vis imports from Thailand. High rates of taxes and duties, low labor.

Productivity and procedural complexities are impacting the competitiveness of Indian

industries. Indian business can also take the advantage of Thailand‟s liberal attitude towards

foreign investment as the Thai government recognizes the important contribution of foreign

investment to the domestic economy. Thailand has sought more Indian investment in IT and

pharmaceuticals — the two areas in which India has proven expertise.India and Thailand

have injected a new vigor into their bilateral trade in recent years, with bilateral trade

increasing six-fold over the past decade. The current bilateral trade figure of $7.5 billion is

itself set to double by 2015.

Conclusion

This paper indicates that the pattern of trade between India and Thailand has shown sign of a

change after signing the FTA. At present, India‟s imports from world are US$ 50434 million

as compared toThailand‟s imports of around US$ 56915 million .Both these countries have

captured aSmallmarket of each other. There is lot of scope that exploring FTA will lead

tosignificant increase in bilateral trade between India and Thailand.It should be remembered

that the present level of India-Thailand trade is low, but isincreasing overtime. This increase

has been noticed particularly in India‟s importsfrom Thailand. Consequently, the trade gap,

which has traditionally been heavily inIndia‟s favor, has reduced considerably.

Thailand‟s import demands are quite high and India will be able to meet export supplyfor a

large number of commodities of Thailand‟s import demands. The present levelof Thailand‟s

imports from India is small; hence India will be able to capture a largeportion of Thailand‟s

market for these commodities. Thailand is relatively a more open economy than India.

Although Thailand is an important trading partner of India. The amount of India‟s total

exportsto Thailand during 2000 was US$ 547 million, while the corresponding amount

ofIndia‟s imports from Thailand was US$ 622 million, resulting in a trade deficit ofUS$ 75



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million. In earlier years, India had had consistent trade surplus with Thailand. India‟s imports

from Thailand have been shown more or less an increasing trend -both in terms of value as

well as percentage share (of its global imports). Almostsimilar trend has been noticed for

India‟s exports to Thailand.

The above analysis also indicates that since 2004-05, India has had a negative trade balance

with Thailand,. However, with export growth falling and import growth rising, the trade

balance is likely to become negative. A negative trade balance might have implications for

India‟s overall trade balance and the current account of its balance of payments. Further it is

also clear from the above discussion that the changing pattern of trade between India and

Thailand might be result of the FTA. But it is too early to comment on FTA lets time to grow

it and will see the actual impact in the future. Therefore it‟sclear from above assessment

Thailand became an ideal trading partner for India to liberalize its economy and sought to

integrate itself into the global economy. Conversely, Thailand recognised India‟s enormous

economic potential and eagerly engaged with India.

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Documents

India- Thailand Trade Relations: An AssessmentIndia- Thailand Trade Relations: An Assessment Syed Khusro Chishty*, M. Afaq Khan**, & Asif Akhtar*** Abstract India’s economic relations

India- Thailand Trade Relations: An AssessmentIndia- Thailand Trade Relations: An Assessment Syed Khusro Chishty, M. Afaq Khan, & Asif Akhtar Abstract India’s economic relations