India Pakistan Relations

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Nature of Conflicts between India and PakistanBorder DisputesAnnexation of StatesBlames of Human Rights ViolationDisputes on WaterIssues related with Security and InsurgencyMiscellaneous ClashesRelation at State and Society Level

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Cont…Border Disputes

Siachin, Sir Creek, KargilAnnexation of State(s)

KashmirBlames of Human Rights Violation

In Kashmir and IndiaDisputes on Water

Control of Water Resources, IWT, Baghlihar, Krishan Ganga etc

Issues related with Security and InsurgencyIndian involvement in Kashmir, Afghanistan,

Baluchistan

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MiscellaneousHijacking of PlanesMassacre

1947,1971,GujratDemolition of Babri MasjidBombay AttacksAttack on Indian Parliament and Kashmir

Assembly 2001

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Border DisputesRun of Kuch 3500 SqMThe Great Rann of Kutch, is a seasonal

salt marsh located in the Thar Desert in the Kutch District( Gujarat) and the Sindh.Dispute between Sindh and State of KuckKuch was with IndiaInitial armed conflict 1964-65Tribunal of UN decided 350 P+3150P

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SiachinThe conflict began in 1984

India gained control of the Siachen Glacier

India gained more than 1,000 square miles (3,000 km2) of territory because of its military operations in Siachen

The Siachen glacier is the highest battleground on earth

India and Pakistan have fought intermittently since April 13, 1984

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Cont…India and Pakistan maintain permanent

military presence in the region at a height of 20,000 ft

More than 2000 people have died in this inhospitable terrain

1972 Simla Agreement did not clearly mention who controlled the glacier, merely stating that ….the boundary would proceed "thence north to the glaciers

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Importance To control land

route of China-Pakistan

Important Strategic Location for Military

Caused Kargil Crisis

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Kargil 1999Kargil War in 1999Pakistan sent infiltrators to occupy vacated

Indian posts across the Line of Control That India would be forced to withdraw

from Siachen in exchange of a Pakistani withdrawal from Kargil

After the Kargil War, India decided to maintain its military outposts on the glacier

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2012 Siachen Glacier AvalancheIn the early morning of 7 April 2012, an avalanche hit a Pakistani military headquarters in the areaBurying over 140 Pakistani soldiers and civilian contractors

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Sir CreekStrip of water that is disputed between India

and Pakistan Rann of Kutch marshlands The creek open into the Arabian SeaDivides the Kutch region of Gujarat with the

Sindh The disputeinterpretation of the maritime boundary line

between Kutch and SindhPakistan lays claim to the entire creekGreen Line vs Red line is the boundary

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ImportanceNaval Strategic ImportanceThe region is rich in oil and gas below the sea bedDetermination of the maritime boundaries which

are drawn as an extension of onshore reference points

Maritime boundaries also help in determining the limits of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and continental shelvesEEZs extend to 200 nautical miles (370 km) and can

be subjected to commercial exploitationInadvertent crossing over of fishermen of both

nations into each other's territories

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SolutionSince 1969 to June 2012 12 talks on :

AllocationDelimitationDemarcationAdministration

But all useless

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Annexation of StatesKashmir

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Blames of Human Rights ViolationHuman Rights Violation 1947Liaqat-Nehru Pact 1948

To protect the minoritiesGujrat massacre by Nerandara MoodiHuman Right Violation in Kashmir

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Disputes on WaterAs initial Problem IWTBaghlihar DamKrishanGanga DamThe two countries disagree over use of the

water flowing down rivers that rise in Indian Kashmir and run into the Indus river basin in Pakistan

Pakistan says India is unfairly diverting water with the upstream construction of barrages and dams. India denies the charge.

No immediate progress is expected here18

Issues related with Security and InsurgencyCross Border FiringAir Space ViolationNuclear ProgramsMissile RaceInvolvement in Afghanistan and IndiaInvolvement in Indian PunjabCaused Fall of Dhaka

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Relation at State and Society LevelWars and Pacts

1948 Kashmir1965 Kashmir + Raan of Kuch

1971 Kashmir + East Pakistan

1984 Siachin1999 Kargil

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PactsLiaqat Nehru 1948 water and minoritiesLiaqat Nehru 1950 MinoritiesIWT 1960Tashqand Declaration January 10,1966Simla Declaration July 3, 1972

To settle dispute bilaterallyDehli agreement August 28,1973Benazir-Rajiv Pact 1988

No attack on atomic Installation, Non-Proliferation, Exchange of List of Nuclear Installation

Untold- about KhalistanLahore declaration 1999

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SECURITYUntil this year, India had refused to

resume peace talks until Islamabad took action against Pakistan-based militants and brought to justice those behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks

For its part, Pakistan accuses India of backing separatists in its Baluchistan province and providing weapons and funding to Pakistan Taliban groups

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Involvement in AfghanistanAfghanistan is a major source of friction

The two countries have long competed for influence there and Pakistan is deeply suspicious of a rise in India's presence there since the fall of the Islamabad-backed Taliban government in 2001

Pakistan accuses India of using Afghanistan as a base to create problems inside Pakistan, including backing separatists in Baluchistan province.

India denies the accusations, saying its $2 billion aid is focused on development.

India is worried that negotiations with the Taliban and the US pullout would give Pakistan an upper hand in Afghanistan and offer anti-Indian militants a base

This rivalry is complicating US-led efforts to end an intensifying Taliban insurgency and bring stability to Afghanistan23

KASHMIR The divided, mostly Muslim Himalayan region

of Kashmir is at the heart of hostility between the neighbors and was the cause of two of their three wars since independence from Britain in 1947 The third was over the founding of Bangladesh

Separatists began an insurgency against Indian rule in 1989

Since then tens of thousands of people have been killed. India accuses Pakistan of supplying militants with arms and funds, while Islamabad says its role is limited to moral support

Failure of UN to settle this dispute24

TRADE AND VISAS Both countries want to boost trade,

particularly important for Pakistan's weak economy, but Islamabad has yet to grant India a “most favoured nation” trade status over concerns its market will be flooded with cheap Indian goods.

There is hope that talks will make progress on easing cross-border travel mostly in the Kashmir region

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Pakistan-India Dialogue An Assessment of the Ongoing

Peace Process

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Nature of Pakistan-India Relations

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Record size dislocations at partition.Sweeping hatred.Massacres. Broken promises.Wars.Unending conflicts.Mistrust.Expanding list of unresolved issues.Failure to implement agreements.Inability to resolve issues bilaterally.

1999-2013Post 9/11 and Prior to Peace Process

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Relations extremely tense from 1999-2013 i. Kargil conflict

ii. Hijacking of an Indian Airline iii. Attack on the Indian Parliament iv. Massive propaganda campaign against Pakistan on terrorism v. One million mobilization vi. Policy of no dialogue with Pakistan

Factors Contributing to the Changed Environment

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In India and Pakistan, the current environment is marked by the following factors;

• Realization in India that it could not impose a decisive on war on Pakistan;

• Realization that there is no military solution to the Kashmir dispute;

Contd...

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• Conclusion that neither country can achieve its economic potential without resolving disputes;

• Need to manage the relations in a nuclearised environment;

Popular sentiment in favour of peace; Changing International Environment;Indian global ambitions.

The Dialogue Process and CBMs

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In accordance with the January 6 commitment, the Current Peace process has been in progress for almost three years.

Three rounds of the Composite Dialogue have been completed. Fourth is underway.

Contd…

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Three Track approach

For the current peace process we are following a three track approach:

1. CBMs2. The Composite Dialogue3. Back Channel

Status of the Peace Process. Three Tracks

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After Three Rounds, the status is;

1) Progress on CBMs Track Resumption of air, trains bus services; Opening of additional bus and train routes; increase in the number of pilgrims; Release of prisoners; Cooperation on Drug Trafficking; Opening of consulates in Karachi and Mumbai

Contd…

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2) Kashmir Related CBMs

• Ceasefire on the LOC; • Sirnagar Muzzafarabad bus service;• Poonch Rawlakot bus service; • Truck service; • Opening of additional crossing points.

Contd …

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3) Nuclear/Conventional CBMs

Agreement on pre-notification on missile tests;

Establishment of hotline between the two Foreign Secretaries to prevent nuclear accident;

Upgradation of hotline between DGMOs; Agreement on air space violation;

Contd…

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Monthly flag meetings;Return of inadvertent line crossers. Agreement on reduction of risk from

accidents relating to nuclear weapons (initialed on 14 November 2006).

Composite Dialogue

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Jammu and Kashmir

At the Formal Dialogue, no significant progress.

As regards Composite Dialogue, the situation not much promising.

Peace and Security

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On the issue of Peace and Security which encompasses both nuclear and conventional aspects, there has been marginal progress. (Ceasefire along LOC) Advance Notification on Missile Testing, Reducing the risk from nuclear accidents).

Indian refusal to discuss Pakistan’s proposal on “elements of Strategic Restraint Regime” with discussions on three inter-linked issues of conventional balance, nuclear and missile restraint and conflict resolution.

Contd…

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Close link between nuclear restraint and conventional balance.

Non use of force should be accepted as the basis for relationship.

The conventional imbalance forms the most immediate threat to peace & security. Pakistan conveyed its concerns over Indian acquisition of modern weapon systems, particularly the missile defence system. We also expressed our concerns about the reported “cold start doctrine” envisaging permanent forward deployment of troops by India.

Contd…

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Conventional asymmetry is also the principle source of nuclear uncertainty.

Renounce destabilizing concepts like ‘hot pursuit’, ‘limited war’ or ‘surgical strikes’.

SIACHEN

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No progress.

Indian refusal to implement 1989 agreement.

Sir Creek

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No possibility of an agreement on the basis of the Rann of Kutch Tribunal verdict.

Joint Survey

Wullar Barrage /Baghlihar/Kishanganga

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Pakistani Position:

The Wullar Barrage violates the Indus Water Treaty provisions because:

• India is required to ensure unrestricted supply of water to Pakistan from Western Rivers according to the Treaty.

• The Wullar Barrage envisages 0.342 MAF storage, which is 30 times the limit provided by the Treaty.

Contd…

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Regulation of flow in channel would be prejudicial to our uses and is not allowed under the Treaty.

We therefore demanded that India abandon the project.

India however wants to recommence construction work.

Terrorism and Drug Trafficking

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Anti Terrorism mechanism.

Pakistan’s concerns on Indian sponsored terrorism.

The Consulates set up by India in Afghanistan (Jalalabad, Herat, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif) and Iran were involved in terrorist activities against Pakistan.

Economic & Commercial Cooperation

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India demands.

- MFN Status;

- Grant of transit facilities to Iran and Afghanistan;

Contd…

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Pakistan’s Position:Despite nominal grant of MFN status to

Pakistan, Pakistani exports to India have not registered any increase.

Bilateral trade is highly tilted in favour of India.

The above are because of highly restrictive tariff, non-tariff and para-tariff barriers entrenched in the Indian economy which make it one of the least liberal economies in South Asia (USTR Reports). The latest World Bank report also confirms that India follows the most restrictive trade regime.

Contd…

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India has to create a level playing field in trade and economic matters by removing these restrictive measures.

The two countries have agreed to form a Joint Study Group on trade issues headed by the Commerce Secretaries to discuss the various issues relating to economic and commercial cooperation

Promotion of Friendly ExchangesIssues Discussed

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Easing of visas restrictions.Promotion of tourism.Increasing the number of pilgrims to visit

shrines in the two countries. Extension of list of shrines. Exchange of students delegations and the

welfare of prisoners.

Contd…

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Pakistan agreed to the increase in the number of pilgrims, measures for the welfare of prisoners and promotion of group tourism.

Pakistan proposed the start of Lahore-Amritsar Bus Service.

The two countries agreed on a mechanism for early release and repatriation of detained civilians and fishermen of each other’s country.

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Back Channel

The Back channel has helped in building blocks to move the peace process forward.

How do we take the process forward?

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Build trust and avoid propaganda Preservation of agreements and CBMs instituted so far. Move forward beyond CBMs. A problem solving approach The principle of give and take Patience. Political contacts at the highest level. Composite Dialogue should have timeline Play by the Rules

Pakistan’s compulsionsIndo-US-Israel nexusBig powers don’t want

any territorial changeNuclear bombsPak support for WATDefense VS PovertyTrade

India’s compulsions

High military expenditure in IHK

UNSC seatLowering doubts of domestic

Muslims and minoritiesPovertyRegional Hegemony

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