Rajat Kathuria, Director and CErkathuria@icrier.res.in

Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

INDIA-EU DIALOGUE ON MIGRATION AND MOBILITY

26 September 2017

OVERVIEW

oExploring India-EU complementarities

oIndia-EU migration trends

oLabour mobility

oStudent mobility

o Tourist flows

oWay forward

Exploring India-EU complementarities

Prime workforce (25-49 years, in ‘000 and percent)

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant), United Nations Population Division.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

EU (with UK) EU (without UK) India EU (%, with UK) EU (%, without UK) India (%)

Employment growth (%) in EU by sectors, 2015-2025

16.30

12.72

7.97

7.83

7.63

7.21

5.52

4.07

0.98

0.90

0.46

-3.92

-3.92

-6.78

-8.90

-15.86

-16.68

Professional services

Administrative services

ICT services

Health & social care

Finance & insurance

Arts & recreation

Accommodation & food

Wholesale & retail trade

Education

Construction

Transport & storage

Public sector & defence

Manufacturing

Water and waste treatment

Energy supply services

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Mining & quarrying

Source: European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP).

Skills shortages in EUOccupations for which there are skill shortages

o higher skill – ICT and STEM professionals, medical doctors, nurses, midwives, teachers

o intermediate skill – cooks, welders and truck drivers

Reasons for shortage

o Insufficient supply of graduates

o Rapid technical advancements

o Less enrollments to study, STEM with high entry requirements and high dropout rates

o Low participation of women in STEM

Country-specific shortages

o Healthcare Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia (due to emigration); Denmark, Croatia, Latvia and Austria (due to retention challenges)

o Legal professionals Estonia and France

o Financial analysts Ireland, UK, Hungary and Luxembourg

Source: CEDEFOP.

Some Challengeso Movement of people is affected by lack of mutual recognition of qualifications and skills

India and EU have not been able to conclude Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) of qualifications

Gaps in implementation of EU’s Services Directive and Directive 2005/36/EC on recognition of professional qualifications

o In 2005, EC developed a set of 11 common basic principles (CBPs) for mainstreaming integration measures

o In 2011, a review of CBPs highlighted several challenges regarding integration of migrants

low levels of employment among migrants, especially migrant women

rising levels of unemployment and high levels of over-qualification of migrants compared to the jobs they do

gaps in educational attainment

increasing risk of social exclusion of migrants

public concerns with the lack of integration of migrants

Policy engagement so far

• India-EU Common Agenda for Migration and Mobility (CAMM) endorsed at India-EU Summit (30 March 2016)

• Several bilateral and multilateral agreements (including trade, social security, labour mobility) have been signed between India and EU (and Member States) to facilitate mobility

• Under GATS, services can be traded internationally in four different ways

o Mode 1: Cross-border supply (e.g. banking services transmitted via telecommunications or mail)

o Mode 2: Consumption abroad (e.g. tourist or patient)

o Mode 3: Commercial presence (e.g. domestic subsidiaries of foreign insurance companies or hotel chains)

o Mode 4: Presence of natural persons (e.g. students, doctors, teachers, etc.)

India-EU migration trends

Migrant inflows from BRICS to EU 21 (as % of total)

Note: 'Total migrant inflows' is representative of migration from outside the EU as well as migration from within the EU. EU (21) consists of Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Source: OECD Migration Statistics (Definition of ‘immigrants’ varies across OECD countries).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

India China Brazil Russia South Africa

Migration from India to EU and US, 2000-2015

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

EU (21 - with UK) EU without UK US

Source: OECD.

India-EU migration by selected countries, 2015

Source: OECD international migration database.

Stock of Indian migrants in EU member states

Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision (latest available).

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

United Kingdom

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Sweden

Spain

Belgium

France

Poland

Denmark

Migrant outflows from India to select EU MS

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

United Kingdom

Italy

Germany

France

Spain

Netherlands

Sweden

Ireland

Austria

Belgium

Stock of migrants from EU MS in India, 2015

Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision.

4,866

2,147

1,142

156

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Portugal

Residence permits (3 months and above) granted toIndian citizens in EU by various reasons

33,075

39,074

53,178

34,562

23,436

30,983

62,032

46,516

55,757

24,389

48,529

55,558

2008

2012

2016

Family Education Remunerated activities Others

Note: 'Others' category includes diplomats, consular officers treated as exempt from control; retired persons of independent means; all other passengers given limited leave to enter who are not included in any other category; non-asylum discretionary permissions.Source: Eurostat.

Residence permits (3 months and above) granted to Indian citizens in EU including and excluding UK

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016

Total Family Education Remunerated activities Others

European Union (28 countries) EU (Excluding UK)

Source: Eurostat.

Labour Mobility

Labour mobility trends

Source: Eurostat.

62,032

72,161

46,516

54,866 55,757

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Permits granted to Indian citizens for remunerative activities in the EU (28)

-5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Top 5 member states as of 2016 granting permits for employment reasons

United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Sweden Denmark

Irregular Indian migrants in EU MS, 2016

Source: Eurostat.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

European Union (28 countries)

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Austria

Portugal

Belgium

Italy

Greece

Spain

Cyprus

Managing migration from third countries

• Approaches adopted by MS to manage migration from third countries (European Migration Network, 2013)

o Occupation lists where labour shortages exist

Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom

o Employers needs analysis

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden

o Quotas and limits to restrict labor migration of third-country nationals

Austria, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Norway, United Kingdom

• Bilateral and multilateral agreements (viz. social security agreements, labor mobility partnerships, trade agreements, etc.) promoting fair recruitment practices, equal treatment to migrant workers, access and portability of benefits for migrant workers

Facilitating labor mobility – Bilateral agreements

Source: Ministry of External Affairs website, Government of India.

Area of cooperation Agreements Main objectives of the

agreement/collaboration

Current status

Labour Mobility Labour Mobility and Partnership Agreement

between India and Denmark

Promote orderly migration of workers from

India to meet the growing demand for skilled

and trained workers in the Danish economy

Prevent illegal migration and the smuggling of

people for financial benefits

In force

Social Security Social Security Agreements

Norway (2010), Denmark (2009), Luxembourg

(2009),

Netherlands (2009), Belgium (2006), French

Republic (2008), Germany (2008), Hungary

(2010), Czech Republic (2010), Sweden (2012),

Finland (2012), Austria (2013)

Social security benefits across jurisdictions In force

Portugal (2013),

Germany (2011)

Social security benefits across jurisdictions Not in force

Trade EU-India Broad-based Trade and Investment

Agreement (BTIA)

Enhance trade, investment and cooperation

by removing the existing barriers

In negotiations, since

2007

European Free Trade Area (EFTA) - India Free

trade agreement: Trade and Economic

Partnership Agreement (TEPA)

In negotiations

Identification and return of Swiss and

Indian Nationals

Bilateral Technical Arrangement between

India and Switzerland

Return of irregular migrants between the two

countries

September 2016

Student Mobility

Flow of tertiary level students from India to selected countries, 2014-15

Source: UNESCO.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

UnitedStates

Australia UK NewZealand

Canada UAE Germany RussianFederation

Ukraine Kyrgyzstan

Number of Indian students abroad as % mobile Indian students abroad

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

United Kingdom Germany Poland France Cyprus

2008 2016

Top 5 EU MS granting education permits to Indians

Source: Eurostat.

Factors affecting student mobility to EU

• Entry and admission

o recognition of third country qualifications

o linguistic and cultural barriers

o payment of tuition fees

o availability of scholarships

o visa and immigration policies

o imposition of caps on length of time to complete studies

• Employment

o access to the labour market during study

o participation in the labour market following completion of studies

• Bilateral agreements between India and the EU Member States

Country MoU/Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) Status

UK Joint statement between the MHRD and Department of Business,

Innovation and Skills

Signed in New Delhi on November 13,

2014

MoU between MHRD and Department of business, innovation and skills,

UK

A framework for the UK – India Education and Research Initiative

(UKIERI) (2016-21)

Signed in New Delhi and London on

April 7 and March 18, 2015

Germany MoU between Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD) and

Federal Minsitry of Education and Research on Cooperation in the field of

higher education

Signed in Berlin on April 11, 2013

JDI between MHRD and the Federal Foreign Office regarding the

Promotion of German as a Foreign Language in India and the Promotion

of Modern Indian Languages m Germany

Signed in New Delhi on October 5,

2015

France Exchange Programme between India and France on cooperation in the

field of education

Signed in New Delhi on February 15,

2007

Facilitating student mobility – Bilateral agreements

Source: Ministry of Human Resource Development website, Government of India.

Tourist flows

Tourist arrivals in India from select EU MS and US (in 000's), 2003 and 2015

Source: India Tourism Statistics

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

UnitedKingdom

Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Belgium Total (of 16MS)

Arrivals in 2003 Arrivals in 2015 % of total arrivals in India in 2003 % of total arrivals in India in 2015

Tourists from China and India to Europe (in 000's), 2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Entire Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Southern Europe Central / Eastern Europe

China India

Source: European Tourism: Trends and Prospects (Q4/2016).

Way Forward

This presentation will be followed by a comprehensive report on

‘EU-India Cooperation on Migration and Mobility’, based on

oextensive literature review

oinsights from key stakeholders

oprogress made on ongoing agreements

oinputs provided by relevant international organizations

Kindly share your inputs / comments / suggestions by writing to amehdi@icrier.res.in.

THANK YOU!