International Dialogue on MigrationEXPERT WORKSHOP

Impact of gradual environmental change on migration: regional and national perspectives 22-23 February 2007Bangkok, Thailand

CESAR MORALES

What types of migratory patterns related to gradual environmental changes

(including internal and international migration) are relevant at the national and

regional levels?

What is gradual environmental changes ?

Changes that occurrs in a long period, little by little, with small manifestations

Changes that normally have a break-point, or a threshold after which, the phenomena, could be irreversible

What kind of gradual environmental changes can be consider?

DESERTIFICATION

LAND DEGRADATION

DEFORESTATION

LOST OF BIODIVERSITY

Some Definitions

DESERTIFICATION: "...means land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities;

“arid, semi-arid and sub-humid arid zones” refers to zones (excluding polar and sub-polar regions) in which the ratio of annual rainfall to potential evapotranspiration ranges between 0,05 and 0,65.

Land and soil degradation means loss of land and soil or of land and soil functions.

The loss of the physical and biological properties of soil, results in less economic productivity of croplands, pastures, and woodlands.

It is due mainly to climate variability and unsustainable human activities such as, over cultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, and poor irrigation practices.

It can leads to:Land erosion caused by wind or water

Deterioration of the physical, chemical, biological and economical quality of land;

a permanent loss of natural vegetation

Erosion

Deforestation

Agriculture and forest production

Source of rawmaterials

Population Infraestructure

Geogenic and Cultural heritage forminglandscapes

Gene reserve and protection

Filtering buffering transformation

Land and soil functions

Some figures in the world

Desertification damage almost a 30% of total land in the world

The crisis is more acute in drylands that accounts for more than a third of the world of the Earth´s land surface.

In drylands soils, vegetation and fauna, that means, the environment, are specially fragile

70% of the 5.2 billion hectares of dryland used for agriculture around the world, are degraded

While drought is often associated with land degradation, it is a natural phenomenon that occurs when rainfall is significantly below normal recorded levels for a long time.

World distribution of hyperarid and drylands

% of total area

451820719World291613< 0.50Europe632328127North America45106119South & Central America381715624Asia & Pacific953351111North Asia, East of Urals20511478North Africa & Near east381913624Sub saharan Africa

Dryland(total)

DrySemi-aridAridHyperarid

The magnitude of losses

Each year World Watch Institute estimates, that all the continents loos 24 billion tonnes of topsoil.

Over the last two decades the lost has been as much as the the entire cropland of the United States.

The situation in LACThe Latin American and Caribbean territory spreads over a 20.2 million km2 area, of which 5.3 million km2 is dry land.

70% of the dry land is vulnerable with an advanced degree of desertification.

…..and in South and Central America, the situation is the following

In total, 250 million hectares of land in South America and 63 million hectares in Central America are, affected by desertification; (Almost ¾ of the Latin American dry land has been moderately or severely desertified)

Soil erosion is the main cause (68% in South America and 88% in Central America of the total affected land);

In South America 100 million and 70 million hectares were degraded by deforestation and overgrazing respectively

Losses due to desertification in LAC

The total lost due to desertification in the region, might reach 975 million US$ per year

According to figures of the UNEP it is necessary to invest up to 13,000 million US$ in order to restore the degraded land of the region

Migration Determinants ACTION OR ABSENCE OF STATE AND PUBLIC POLICIES

CULTURAL FACTORS:CULTURAL INTEGRATION IN ORIGEN PLACES:SUPPORT AND INFORMATION NETS TO MIGRANTS, CULTURAL PROXIMITY

SOCIAL FACTORS GEOGRAPHICAL DIFERENTIATION IN LIFE QUALITY LEVEL AND EDUCATIONSOCIAL COSTS OF MOVING

ECONOMICAL FACTORS:GEOGRAPHICAL DIFERENTIATION OF INCOME & EMPLOYMENT OPORTUNITIESMONETARY COSTS OF TRANSPORT ANDOPORTUNITY COST OF MOVING

LEVEL AND STYLE OF MIGRATION DINAMYCS

As we have seen previously, behind the economical and social factors, are...

– DESERTIFICATION– LOST OF BIODIVERSITY– DEFORESTATION– LAND DEGRADATION

AT NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

MAINLY INTERNAL MIGRATORY CURRENTS FLOWSBRAZIL: FROM NORD-EAST REGION TO STATE CAPITALS AND TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION (TRIANGLE RIO-SAO PAULO-B.HORIZONTE)ARGENTINA: FROM NORD WEST REGION TO PROVINCE CAPITALS AND TO B.AIRESCHILE: FROM NORTH TO CAPITAL AND EXTREME NORTH REGIONMEXICO: FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO STATE AND FEDERAL CAPITALS

GRADUAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES (DESERTIFICATION AND LAND DEGRADATION)

WHERE PEOPLE GOCAUSES

INTERNAL MIGRATORY FLOWSINTERNATIONAL MIGRATORY FLOWS

GEOGRAPHICAL DIFERENTIATION OF EDUCATION

BIG INCOME DIFERENTIATION: USA, EU, AND CANADAMEDIUM DEGREE OF DIFERENTIATION: SOME LAC COUNTRIES SUCH AS: ARGENTINA, CHILE, C.RICA

GEOGRAPHICAL DIFERENTIATION OF INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT OPORTUNITIES

FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO PORT O PRINCE, AND STO. DOMINGO (DOMINICAN REP.), AND WHEN IS POSSIBLE, TO USA

HAITI

FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO STO. DOMINGODOMINICAN REPUBLIC

TO SAN SALVADOR AND TO MEXICO, C. RICA AND USAEL SALVADOR

FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO LIMAPERU

FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO PROVINCE CAPITALS AND TO LA PAZ AND EL ALTO

BOLIVIA

FROM DEGRADATED AREAS TO MAIN CITIES: GUAYAQUIL, QUITO AND CUENCA

ECUADOR

WHERE PEOPLE GOGRADUAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES (DESERTIFICATION AND LAND DEGRADATION)

Migrants

Migrants

…The relation between increasing population and degradation

Human-induced severe and very severe land degradation due to agricultural activities

2211727Europe

35912391World

77132427North America

3291795South & Central America

42123506Asia & Pacific

2761180North Asia, East Urals

186759North Africa & Near East

3481996Sub Saharan Africa

% of severelydegraded land

% of total areaArea extent (‘000 km²)

LAC

Human activities and its impacts

Agricultural activities are a very important cause of degradation of most of the agricultural lands of the world, in all continents.

Deforestation appears as a joint cause with agriculture over large parts of these lands (e.g. Togo, Malaysia, Honduras, Costa Rica, Cuba, and island states of the Caribbean)

A study of 73 developing countries, (Kirschke, 1999), shows that deforestation is a causative factor for both wind and water erosion (including degradation through loss of nutrients and organic matter) under humid and arid climate conditions

Overgrazing is a dominant cause in most of the dryland in developing countries (Libya, Tunisia, Iran, Iraq, Syria), and the sahel belt of Africa. It is also the major cause in many parts of Central Asia, Argentina, and in drylands of developed countries including Australia and Western United States.

Human acitivities and its impacts

Overexploitation of vegetation for domestic use (fuelwood, domestic timber) is an important cause in the sahel belt of Africa, western Argentina, El Salvador, Iran and Pakistan.

Biological degradation caused by industrial pollution (e.g. toxic wastes, acid rainfall) is a major cause of degradation in some European countries (e.g. Belgium, Lithuania, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden).

What happends in the LAC countries ?

Although well known for its rain forests, Latin America and the Caribbean is actually about one-quarter desert and drylands (20,533,000 km2).

The hyper-arid deserts of the Pacific coast stretch from southern Ecuador,the entire Peruvian shoreline and northern Chile. Further inland, at altitudes of 3,000-4,500 meters, high and dry plains (Altiplano) of the Andean mountains cover large areas of Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina.

To the east of the Andes, an extensive arid region extends from Chaco‘s northern reaches in Paraguay to Patagonia in southern Argentina.Northeastern Brazil contains semi-arid zones dominated by tropical savannahs.

Large parts of Colombia and Venezuela are highly degraded. In Dominican Republic, Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica, there are arid zones, as erosion and water shortages are noticeably intensifying in the Eastern Caribbean. Most of Mexico is arid and semi-arid, mainly in the north. Land degradation and severe droughts make the Central American countries vulnerable to extreme

t d l i th i t i bl d l t

THE ECONOMICAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS

SMALL PRODUCERS (PEASANTS)– A SIMPLE MODEL TO EXPLAIN THE PROCESS

AND ITS DINAMYCS

Main TrendsSOME FIGURES FOR LAC

511.931276.591161.023 TOTAL POPULATION (MILLIONS)

0.10.51.3RURAL RATE OF GROWTH

1.93.84.4URBAN RATE OF GROWTH

24.742.659% RURAL POPULATION

75.357.441%URBAN POPULATION

200019701950ALC

% of rural migration on urban growth

54.453.841.336.4Panama32.131.732.433.7Mexico59.160.044.041.8Guatemala38.837.749.147.5Ecuador47.446.946.844.2C. Rica19.819.711.98.3Chile35.934.742.837.0Brazil30.427.765.362.8Bolivia

womenmanwomenmen1990 - 20001980 - 1990

Until the sixties and seventies, migration from rural to urban areas, was a dominant trend, and the most important factor to explain urban increasing population

But around the eighties, migratory flows has changed dramatically. Migration between urban zones, became more important while rural to urban flows diminished

Even that, migration from rural to urban sector, is still the main source of urban growth

Characteristics of migratory flows

Higher disposition of women to migrate inside the country (from rural to urban sector)as a result of that the masculine index is less than 100 and less than no migrants indexCauses: specifical employment demand for women as maids in big cities

Exeption: Bolivia and Ecuador

Migrants are mainly people between 15 and 59 years old

Cathegory of people with a higher degree of education, are increasing fastly (people with secondary and universitary degrees). This is an important change in the migratory currents

As a result of this trends, the rural population is less important than years ago, and it has diminished its participation in the total population.

But it spite off, it grows in absoluts terms)

0.9210.1821.29

0.4020.2571.13

0.7338.781.082.78

SURFACE (MILLION

Km2)

16.415.75.5VENEZUELA18.216.212.2URUGUAY20.113.24.8PERU12.97.53.3PARAGUAY46.931.612.4ECUADOR37.224.510.5COLOMBIA20.615.58.1CHILE 19.313.55.9BRAZIL4.85.42.8BOLIVIA13.010.05.7ARGENTINA

200019801950

South America: average population density 1950 – 2000Density (inhab./Km2)

Source: Data base of CELADE, ECLAC, UN

What policies and programmes can governments put into place to

respond to these types of migratory trends?

Do gradual environmental changes imply gradual policy responses?

Policies

Policies related to the causes:– Inequality of land distribution: Scarcity and poor

quality of land and water– Scarcity or absense of financial Resources– Over pressure over the land: over exploitation of

natural resources

An indicator system of economical and social impacts

Public Policies

1. SUBSIDESto ensure a minimal income and quality life, ie., to unemployment, health care, electricity, drinking waterto diminish over land explotation ie., diminishing quantity of goatsTo diminish deforestation, ie., to construct solar power cooksTo stop land degradation process and to recover desertified areas

2. IncentivesTo forest and to recover vegetable soil cover trough measures as securitization. That is to say, to finance a trees plantation and then recovering it by puting bonus in the market, backed by the future value of the forest (growned by peasents)

To change extensive methods to breed poor quality animals for new methods with less animals of better quality, ie., special programs aimed to produce higher quality products to market, such as goat cheess

To promote the use of technlogies to take advantages of solar power and to harvest, to recover and to distribute water (i.e, Brazil)

To construct a retirement system for old people in rural areas (ie., Brazil)

To promote the transfer of land to the new generations

Microcredit

To construct a system of indicators of social and economical impact and to monitoring it

GRADUALITY ?

It is difficult to think in gradual responses to combat desertification and degradation, because:

– Usually this kind of phenomena tends to be irreversible or almost irreversible,

– Cost involved increase dramatically if the desertification and degradation process, overcome certain levels

– In other words is cheeper to act at the begining

Should these policies depend on the scale of migratory flows and characteristics of the affected

populations?

According the experiences it is absolutely necessary to define and put in practice a public policy involving all the sectors inorder to combat the desertification

Having a efficient and efective policy, and adecuated instruments such as social and economical impacts indicators system, it is possible to graduate the policy implementation according to the scale

It must be taken into consideration that desertification and degradation are processes that grows slowly but constantly, affecting mainly the poorest rural population

Desertification and degradation have inter generational impacts affecting the future of all the country and the region

Policies must be formulated taking in account the characteristics of the affected population, ie, .- indigenous populations normaly work through associatives organizations.- Old population in rural sector, needs an special attention.- In some countries men can migrate first and a women stay in charge of the productive unit (small proporperties).- sometimes, when both parents migrate, family suffer a desintegration. Usually children stay with grand parents or other relatives

What policy responses can be undertaken to stabilize

livelihoods and populations threatened by environmental

changes?

To Stabilize livelihoods

To diminish pressure over land To reforestate and to recover the natural soilDue the fact that normally desertifies areas have lots of solar energy, it is recomended to take advantage of it, as a way to protect natural forestTo protect and conserve water sourcesTo harvest water from clouds

TO STABILIZE POPULATIONRETIREMENT PROGRAM IN RURAL AREAS–

– SUBSIDES DIRECTED TO ENSURE BASIC NEEDS

– TO PROVID MICROCREDIT

– SUBSIDES AIMED TO PROMOTE SOIL CONSERVATION AND TO DIMINISH OVER EXPLOITATION

What policy options are there to provide alternatives to

migration?

To improve quality life in rural areas afected by desertification and degradation process: rural electricity, water harvest, wells, housing, education programsCreating new sources of income located in afected areas, i.e, handydcrafts and industries work intensive