In Search of Best Practice Cocomo 2009

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    In Search of Best PracticeEndur ing Ideas in Strategy & I nnovation

    International Forum on COCOMO

    and Systems/Software Cost ModelingNovember 5, 2009

    Based on the 2009 13thAnnual Clarendon Lectures

    in Management Studies, University of Oxford

    Michael A. Cusumano 2009

    MIT Sloan School of Management

    [email protected]

    http://esd.mit.edu/default.htm
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    Oxford Clarendon Lectures

    Task? Write a synthesis of my career researchFocus:Attempt to understand best practices

    Context: Strategy, operations, & technology or

    innovation management in the auto, consumer

    electronics, software/internet sectors

    Methodology: Reflection on 25+ years of research,

    mostly inductive cases, some large sample studies

    Lectures Theme:Simple but potential enduring ideas

    Inspiration?

    Some popular books attempting the same, but mostly

    Theodore White, In Search of History (1978) 2

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    3

    In

    Search

    of Best

    Practice

    1985 1991 1995

    1998 1998 2002

    2002 2004 2010

    http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0684849186.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg&imgrefurl=http://100megsfree4.com/corvette/book/toyota/TOYOTA.htm&h=475&w=304&sz=48&hl=en&start=1&tbnid=-gXkXfipsW5WnM:&tbnh=129&tbnw=83&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcusumano%2Bthinking%2Bbeyond%2Blean%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DRNWE,RNWE:2005-26,RNWE:en
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    Best Practice in Management?

    Lots of popular books & academic research,though mostly case studies, small samples, or limited analysis

    Hard to generalize;what works in one firm, time period,industry or nation may not transfer

    Partially a problem of knowledge(what do we reallyknow) as well as context(controls & management issues) Imitation (best to common to non-differentiating practices)

    I ndustry or technology li fecycle (new, mature, disruptive)

    Type of technology or innovation (product, process, service) Industry (industry structure, business or firm differences)

    I nstitution or environment (country, government)

    Luck or population ecology (timing, survival bias?)

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    For Example: Japanvs. US/West

    US and Europe once center of best practices Japan in 1950s and 1960s: cheap, low-quality goods, but

    fastest growing economy

    Japan later overtook the West in some areas Best practices in manufacturing, quality, HR, product

    development, industrial policy

    Since 1990, many Japanese strengths turned

    into weaknesses Beyond company practices to government policies and social

    or cultural characteristics

    5

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    Tom Peters & Robert Waterman,

    In Search of Excellence (1982)

    Of 62 of McKinseys best clients, focused on top 43

    Key success factors: (1) action bias, (2) close to customer,(3) entrepreneurship spirit, (4) people focus, (5) hands-on

    management, (6) focus on what firm is good at, (7) lean staffing,(8) tight centralized values with decentralization

    Hard to disagree with these qualities, but

    No statistical or historical analysis; cant tell which factorimpacts what, or what is enduring

    Many excellent firms later struggled or failed

    Atari, Data General, Delta Airlines, DEC, IBM,

    Kodak, NCR, Wang, Xerox

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    Jim Collins,From Good to Great (2001)

    Analyzed 1500 companies to find best performers instock market value; focused on top 11

    Key success factors: (1) Internal CEOs, (2) focus on talent,(3) focus on internal strengths, (4) fact-based performance goals,

    (5) disciplined commitment culture, (6) reinforcing use oftechnology, (7) momentum built from early successes

    Again, hard to disagree with these qualities, but

    Again, no analysis of what effects what or how otherfirms with similar characteristics performed

    Again, trouble, takeovers, or bankruptcy

    Abbot, Circuit City, Fannie Mae, Gillette, Wallgreens

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    General Observations

    Some practices seem more enduringthan others Though unpredictable catastrophes (black swans)can disrupt any market and any firm

    What is lasting best practice surely DEPENDS

    E.g., in manufacturing Ford (Model T) bestuntilsurpassed by GM (variety) and then by Toyota (JIT)

    E.g., in various areas, Japan, Inc. in 1980s bestwhile economy growing & competition limited

    Need to state qualifying conditions or context

    But, for managers, specific practices moderated byformal contingency frameworks get complex fast

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    My Six Enduring IdeasNot original to me, but underlie my work & have

    decades of empirical & theoretical research behind them

    1. Capabil i ties,Not Just Strategy

    2. Pull, Dont Just Push

    3. Scope, Not Just Scale

    4. F lexibil i ty,Not Just Efficiency

    5. Platforms, Not Just Products

    6. Services, Not Just Products (or Platforms)9

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    Capabilities and Economies of Scope

    Flexibility

    New Way of Thinking About

    FIRM

    AGILITY

    Pull Platforms Services

    New Way of Thinking About

    ECOSYSTEM

    STRATEGY

    Enduring Ideas & Competitive Advantage

    How anticipate emerging customer

    needs or market change, and lead or

    adapt quickly ,flexiblyand effectively

    How move to new capabilities within

    an industry ecosystem, and influence

    markets & adapt to commoditization

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    1. Capabil i ties, Not Just Strategy

    Focus not simply on formulating strategy or a vision of

    the future (i.e., deciding what to do)but equally on

    building distinctive organizational capabilities and

    operational skills (i.e., how to do things) that rise above

    common practice (i.e., what most firms do).

    Distinctive capabilities center on people, processes, and

    accumulated knowledge. Reflect a deep understanding

    of the business and the technology and enable the firm

    to offer superior products and services as well as exploit

    foreseen and unforeseen opportunities for innovation.

    11

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    Capabilities Intellectual HistoryUnique/Distinctive Resources (sometimes Capabilities)

    Penrose (1959); Chandler (1962); Richardson (1972), Wernerfeldt (1984); Barney(1991); Grant (1991); Peteraf (1993), etc.

    Incremental Strategy & Domain Knowledge

    Bower (1970); Quinn (1980); Hayes and Abernathy (1980); Pascale (1984);Mintzberg (1987, 1994); Hamel and C.K. Pralahad (1989, 1990); Brown and

    Eisenhardt (1998); Burgelman (2001), etc.

    How Much Does Industry (vs. Management) Matter?

    Porter (1980); Schmalensee (1985); Rumelt (1991); McGahan and Porter (1997)

    Dynamic Capabilities & Apsorptive Capacity

    Leonard-Barton (1992); DAveni (1994); Teece, Pisano & Shuen (1997); Markides

    (1999); Eisenhardt & Martin (2000); Teece (2009). Cohen & Levinthal (1990) 12

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    My Examples Strategy and capabilities development at Toyota

    (indirect tech transfer) vs. Nissan (direct),layingfoundation for Toyotas revolutionary process

    innovations (M. Cusumano, The Japanese Automobile Industry, 1985)

    Strategy and capabilities development at JVC and Sony,

    leading to mass-production and design skills used to

    create the home VCR (R. Rosenbloom and M. Cusumano,

    Technological Pioneering and Competitive Advantage: The Birth of the VCRIndustry, California Management Review, 1987)

    Strategy and capabilities at Microsoft unique to PC

    software (M. Cusumano & R. Selby, Microsoft Secrets, 1995) 13

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    Lessons for Managers (Idea 1)

    Essential to couple strategy with distinctive

    capabilitiesto implement and evolve that

    strategy as needed.

    Unique benefits to have people at hand who

    have the knowledge, skil ls, and creativityto

    produce the product and process innovations

    planned or unplanned that truly differentiate

    firms over the long run.

    14

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    2. Pul l, Dont Just Push

    Emphasize a pull-styleof management that reverses

    the sequential processes & information flow common inmany firms for manufacturing as well as product

    development, service design and delivery, and other

    operations and activities.

    Link each step in key processes backwardfrom the

    market to respond in real-time to changes in demand,

    customer preferences, competitive conditions, orinternal operational difficulties. Continuous feedback &

    adjustmentalso facilitate rapid learning, elimination of

    waste, and incremental product & process innovations.15

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    Pull Intellectual HistoryPush vs. Pull in Marketing, Scientific Invention, Supply Chain

    (Dodgson, Gann, & Salter (2005); von Hippel (various)

    Toyota & Lean Production Early: Managerial

    Sugimori et al. (1977), Ono (1978), Monden (1981 and 1983), Schonberger

    (1982), Hall (1983), Cusumano (1985), Krafcik (1988), Womack, Jones, andRoos (1990), Oliver & Wilkinson (1992), etc.

    Toyota & Lean Production Later: Theory, Analysis

    Lee (1989), Fujimoto (1999) , Holweg and Pil (2004), Holweg (2007), etc.

    Iterative Product DevelopmentSoftware & Other

    Basili & Turner (1975), Boehm (1988), Aoyama (1993), Ulrich & Eppinger

    (1994); MacCormack & Verganti (1999) , Kelley (2004), Thomke (2004)16

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    My Examples

    Toyota Just-in-Time (Kanban/Lean) production system(which uses half the workers of conventional

    manufacturing &minimal inventory, with higher

    productivity , quality and short-cycle learning dynamics)(M. Cusumano, The Japanese Automobile Industry, 1985)

    Iterative or prototype-driven software development

    such as at Microsoft, Netscape, et al., compared to plan-driven sequential or waterfall processes for product

    development (M. Cusumano and R. Selby, Microsoft Secrets, 1995; M.Cusumano and D. Yoffie, Competing on Internet Time, 1998)

    17

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    Lessons for Managers (Idea 2)

    The pull concept is a fundamental phi losophy ofmanagement, emphasizing real-time information

    and continuous improvement.

    Pull versus pushin everything from strategic

    decision making to planning and operations

    management.

    Managers can set the pace of feedback &

    adjustment with mechanisms that set theheartbeat of the processes: kanban exchange

    or the (daily) build cycle.

    18

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    Process Spectrum

    19

    User FeedbackDuring Project

    Uncertainty inRequirements

    Early/OftenHigh

    Late/OccasionalLow

    Number of Cycles or Releases1 Many

    Traditional Waterfall,Approaches

    RapidPrototyping

    XP

    Agile orIterativeMethodsIncremental

    Source: Adapted from Bill Crandall (formerly of Hewlett-Packard)

    Process Spectrum

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    20

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    Synchr onize-& -Stabil ize

    Product Vision/Architecture Design

    Functional Specification

    Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Milestone 3

    Iterative Design Iterative Design Iterative Design

    Code Code Code

    Usability test Usability test Usability test

    Test Test Test

    Daily builds Daily builds Daily builds

    Test Test Test

    Redesign Redesign Redesign

    Debug Debug Debug

    Integrate Integrate Integrate

    Stabilize Stabilize Stabilize

    Buffer time Buffer time Buffer time

    Alpha release Beta release Feature complete

    Beta release

    Visual freeze

    CODE COMPLETE

    Final test

    Final debug

    Stabilize

    Final release

    Synch & Stabilize Process Flow

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    Toyota Lean Production Microsoft Agile Development

    Manual demand-pull with kanban cards Dai ly bui lds with evolving features

    JIT small lot production Development by small-scale features

    Minimal in-process inventories Short cycles and milestone intervals

    Geographic concentrationproduction Geographic concentration -development

    Production leveling Scheduling by features & milestones

    Rapid setup Automated build tools & quick tests

    Machine/ line rationalization Focus on small, multifunctional teams

    Work standardization Design, coding, and testing standards

    Foolproof automation devices Builds &continuous integration testing

    Multi-skilled workers Overlapping responsibilities

    Selective use of automation CA tools but no code generators

    Continuous improvement Postmortems, process evolution

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    3. Scope, Not Just Scale

    Seek efficiencies even in activities not suited to scale

    economies, such as research, engineering, and productdevelopment as well as services. Usually see scope as

    corporate strategy: synergies across lines of business.

    But potentially more practical & valuable are scope

    economies within the same line of business.

    Require systematic ways to share product inputs,

    intermediate components, or other key elements ofproduct, process, or customer knowledge across diverse

    groups and projects. Scope economies also eliminate

    redundant activities and are an important source of

    competitive differentiation. 23

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    Scope Intellectual History

    Economies of Scope Definitions & Theory

    Teece (1980), Panzar & R. Willig (1981), Helfat & Eisenhardt (2004)

    Corporate Diversification (across lines of business)

    Chandler (1962), Rumelt (1974), Bettis (1981), Ravenscraft & Scherer (1987),

    Ramanujan & Varadarajan (1989)

    Limits vs. Benefits of Scale in Manufacturing

    Abernathy & Wayne (1974), Abernathy (1978), Hounschell (1985)

    Scope Examples (within a line of business, across activities)

    Leggette & Killingsworth (1983), Matsumoto (1984), Chandler (1990), Henderson

    & Cockburn (1996), Hansen, Nohria & Tierney (1999), Hallowell (1999).

    Hansen et al. (1999), Christensen, Grossman & Hwang (2008) 24

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    My Examples

    Software factories, from US to Japan to India, forbuilding custom applications and standardized products(M. Cusumano, Japans Software Factories, 1991; M. Cusumano, The Business

    of Software (2004); M. Cusumano et al., Software Development Worldwide:

    The State of the Practice, IEEE Software, 2003)

    Multi-project management and concurrent technology

    transfer in product development, at Toyota et al., to

    balanceprojectmanagement with technology reusethrough in-house platforms and knowledge management(M. Cusumano and K. Nobeoka, Thinking Beyond Lean, 1998)

    25

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    Lessons for Managers (3)

    Economies of scope potentially as valuable toeff iciency as traditional economies of scale, and

    probably more important to firm-level

    differentiation

    precisely because this isdifficult to achieve!

    Managers also must be smart enough to balanceor eliminate the potential tradeoffse.g., with

    efficiency & quality

    26

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    4. F lexibi l i ty, Not Just Eff iciency

    Place as much emphasis on flexibility as on efficiency in

    manufacturing, product development, and other

    operations as well as in strategy and decision making.

    Firms need to adapt to change in market demand,

    competition, and technology, and exploit opportunitiesfor innovation and new business development.

    Moreover, rather than always requiring tradeoffs,

    flexible systems and processes can actually reinforce or

    facilitate efficiency and quality, as well as encourage

    innovation.

    27

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    Flexibility Intellectual HistoryOrganizations, Environments & Strategy

    Lawrence & Lorsch (1967); Aaker & Mascarenhas (1984), Harrigan (1984).DAveni (1994); Tushman & O'Reilly (1996); Volberda (1996, 1999); Brown &

    Eisenhardt (1997, 1998), Gemawhat & Sol (1998), Birkinshaw & Hagstrom

    (2002), etc.

    ManufacturingFlexibility-Efficiency-Quality Tradeoffs

    Skinner (1974) , Jaikumar (1986), Krafcik (1988), Garvin (1988), Sethi & Sethi

    (1990), Pine (1992), Gerwin (1993), Upton (1994), Adler et. al. (1999),Pagell &

    Krause (2004), etc.

    Product DevelopmentAutos & Software Examples

    Womack et al. (1990), Clark & Fujimoto (1991), Sanchez (1995), MacDuffie et al.

    (1996), Sobek et al. (1998), Adler (2005), etc., as well as the iterative

    literature discussed under Pull idea

    28

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    My Examples Manufacturing : Printed-circuit boards study, with some

    exploration of Toyota concepts (F. Suarez, M. Cusumano, and C.Fine, An Empirical Study of Manufacturing Flexibility in Printed-Circuit Board

    Assembly, Operations Research, 1996)

    Product development: Scaling up flexibility of small,autonomous teams for larger projects (M. Cusumano, HowMicrosoft Makes Large Teams Work Like Small Teams,MIT Sloan Management

    Review, 1997; A. MacCormack, M. Cusumano, C. Kemerer, and B. Crandall,

    Trade-offs between Productivity and Quality in Selecting Software

    Development Practices, IEEE Software, 2003; M. Cusumano, The Business ofSoftware, 2004)

    Strategy and entrepreneurshipNetscape (vs. Microsoft)(M. Cusumano and D. Yoffie, Competing on Internet Time,1998) 29

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    Lessons for Managers (Idea 4)

    Flexibilitycomes in different forms and thesecan be powerful strategic levers

    Rather than worrying about tradeoffs withefficiency or quality, use flexible processes and

    structures to enhance organizational

    effectiveness when dealing with changein

    strategy, customer needs, manufacturing,

    product development, technology disruptions,

    and unforeseen opportunities for innovation30

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    5. Platforms, Not Just Products

    (At least, for firms affected by digital technologies as

    well as network effects) should move beyond

    conventional thinking about strategy and capabilities

    to compete on the basis of platforms, or complements.

    A platform strategy differs from a product strategy in

    that it requires an external ecosystem to generate

    complementary innovations and build positive

    feedback between the complements and the platform.

    The effect is much greater potential for growth and

    innovation than a single firm can generate alone.

    31

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    Platform Intellectual History

    I n-H ouse Product Platforms & ProductModularity

    Meyer & Utterback (1993), Ulrich (1995), Sanchez & Mahoney (1996), Meyer &Lehnerd (1997), Baldwin & Clark (1999), etc.

    Standards & Dominant Designs to Network Effects

    Utterback & Abernathy (1975), David (1985), Farrel & Saloner (1986), Arthur(1989), Katz & Shapiro (1992), Shapiro & Varian (1998), Bresnahan &

    Greenstein (1999), etc.

    Multi-Sided Markets (Industry Platform + Complementors)

    Parker & Van Alstyne (2005), Eisenmann (2006), Evans, Hagiu & Schmalensee

    (2006), Eisenmann, Parker &Van Alstyne (2006), Yoffie & Kwak (2006), Adner

    (2006), etc.

    32

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    My Examples

    Platform leadership, based on Intel case study and

    comparisons, especially to Microsoft (A. Gawer and M.Cusumano, Platform Leadership, 2002)

    Product vs. platform strategy (Sony and Apple vs. JVCand Microsoft) and how to turn a product into a platform

    (Google, Qualcomm, et al.) (M. Cusumano, Y. Mylonadis, and R.Rosenbloom, Strategic Maneuvering and Mass-Market Dynamics: Triumph of

    VHS Over Beta,Business History Review, 1992; M. Cusumano, The Puzzle of

    Apple, Communications of the ACM, 2008; A. Gawer and M. Cusumano, How

    Companies Become Platform Leaders,MIT Sloan Management Review, 2008)

    33

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    Lessons for Managers (Idea 5)

    Enormous differences between a product versusplatform strategywith equally enormous

    economic consequences for users and entire

    industry ecosystem

    Four Levers: Scope of the firm, Product technology,

    External relationships, Internal organization

    Even if multiple platforms persist, platform

    thinking useful for in-house product

    developmentas well as strategic marketing34

    6 S i N J P d

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    6. Services, Not Just Products

    (Product firms, or services firms that offer standardized

    services treated as products) should use servicecapabilities and innovations to sell, enhance, and even

    de-commoditize product offerings or standardized

    services as well as create new sources of revenues and

    profits, such as an ongoing maintenance stream.

    The goals should be to find the right revenue balance

    and then servitize products to create new value-added opportunities and productize services to

    deliver them more efficiently and flexibly, using

    information technology & service automation.35

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    Services Intellectual History

    Definitions of Services versus Products

    Judd (1964). Rathmell (1966), Bell (1973), Levitt (1972, 1976)

    Theories of Service I nnovation

    Barras (1986), Thomke (2003), Mansharamani (2007)

    Services/Servitization Strategies & Economic Value

    Teece (1986), Potts (1988), Bowen et al. (1991), Quinn (1992), Knecht et al. (1993),

    Gadiesh and Gilbert (1998), Nambisan (2001), Oliva & Kallenberg (2003), Slack

    (2005), Neely (2009)

    Computers and Software Industry Example

    Campbell-Kelly and Aspray (1996), Gerstner (2002), Campbell-Kelly (2004),

    Cusumano (2004), Campbell-Kelly and Garcia-Schwartz (2007)

    36

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    My Examples

    Rise of services among software product and

    computer hardware/systems firms (M. Cusumano, TheSoftware Business, 2004, and The Changing Software Business: From Products

    to Services,IEEE Computer, 2008; F. Suarez, M. Cusumano, and S. Kahl,

    Services and the Business Models of Product Firms: An Empirical Analysis of

    the Software Industry, WP 2008)

    How services and services innovation help product

    firms and platform leadership (M. Cusumano, F. Suarez, S.Kahl, A Theory of Services in Product Firms, WP 2008; F. Suarez and M.

    Cusumano, The Role of Services in Platform Markets, forthcoming in A.

    Gawer, ed., Platforms, Markets, and Innovation, 2009)

    37

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    38

    Software ProductsBusiness:Extreme Example of Innovation & Commoditization?

    Massive Industry Consolidation!! The data are clear

    Decline of Enterprise Sales (or Prices?)

    Only exceptions are hits & platform products?

    Growth of Services & Maintenance Revenues

    Freeware/open source driving prices to zero?

    Customers rebel against costly products?

    Emergence of New Business & Pricing Models

    Software as a Service/Cloud Computing cheaper products,bundled support/maintenance (Salesforce, Amazon)

    Free, But Not Free, Againsupported by advertising (e.g., Google)orservices (Red Hat), or multi-sided market (Microsoft & Adobe, Facebook

    et al.)

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    Public Software Product FirmsListed on US Stock Exchanges (SIC 7372)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    2503

    00

    350

    400

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006fyadj

    Number of Firms in the Industry - All Sample

    P bli IT S i Fi

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    40(SIC codes 7370, 7371, 7373 for computer services, and mgt consulting IT services 8742)

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    Year

    Number of Public IT Service Firms (1990 - 2006)

    Public IT Services Firms

    Listed on US Stock Exchanges

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    41

    Siebel

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    5060

    70

    80

    90

    100

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    %o

    fTotalRe

    venues

    NewProd

    ServMain

    Siebel

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1

    995

    1

    996

    1

    997

    1

    998

    1

    999

    2

    000

    2

    001

    2

    002

    2

    003

    2

    004

    $million

    NewProd

    ServMain

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    42

    Oracle

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    %o

    fTotalR

    evenues

    NewProd

    ServMain

    Oracle

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    $million

    NewProd

    ServMain

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    43

    40

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

    %Sales

    Calendar Year

    Service Revenue %, Select Hardware Firms

    IBM

    HP

    Sun Microsystems

    EMC

    Cisco

    Dell

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    44

    7

    Business orLife Cycle Models?

    010

    203040

    506070

    8090

    Products

    Hybrid

    Solutio

    ns

    Serv

    ices

    %o

    fTotalRevenues

    Products

    Services

    Source: M. Cusumano, The Business of Software (2004)

    Diff t S C D i

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    DifferentS-Curve DynamicsProduct Platform Disruptions Generate New

    Services & New Business Models?

    Performance

    Time

    Ferment

    Takeoff

    Maturity

    Platform

    Disruption

    New Services?

    New Business Models?

    45

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    46

    New Business Model DimensionsRevenue Model

    Delivery

    Model

    Customers

    Local ClientInstallation

    Local ServerInstallation

    RemoteWeb-based

    Remoteproprietary

    (e.g. hostedSAP)

    Up-frontlicense fee

    Subscription/Software as aservice

    Advertisting-

    based

    Transaction-based

    Free but notfree (bundled)

    Free (revenuesfrom services

    Bundled aspart of a

    hardwareproduct

    Mainstream consumers

    Early-adopter consumers

    Small businesses

    Mainstream enterprise customers

    Early-adopter enterprise cust.

    Source: MIT student team K. Boppana, A. Gldi, B. Hein, P. Hsu, T. Jones (The Software Business, 15.358), 2006

    Traditional

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    Web-Based Enterprise Software Vendors

    Source: Andreas Goeldi survey (MIT masters thesis, 2007) n=108

    Year of Company Formation

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1911

    1972

    1975

    1977

    1982

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    Year

    .00%

    20.00%

    40.00%

    60.00%

    80.00%

    100.00%

    120.00%

    Frequency

    Cumulative %

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    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    Frequency

    n=180

    Business Models

    108 Web-Based Enterprise Software Vendors

    Monthly Fee

    Free

    Upfront License Fee

    Professional Services

    Open Source

    Advertis ing

    Pay Per Use

    89

    29 30

    6 2

    16

    Source: Andreas Goeldi survey (MIT masters thesis, 2007)

    7

    Traditional

    S ft P d t Fi

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    49

    Software Product Firms

    and Other Research

    M. Cusumano, F. Suarez, S. Kahl and students

    Public software products firms -- Identifiedca. 500 (listed onUS stock exchanges) under US SIC code 7372PrePackaged

    Software

    Since 2003, downloaded data from Compustat, Mergent, anddirectly from 10K reports

    Over 3000 yearly usable observations Average 10+ years of detailed financial data from 1990

    Also now databases on all IT Services firms and S&P 1000 withproducts and services revenues

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    50

    .2

    .3

    .4

    .5

    .6

    .7

    .8

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006fyadj

    (mean) servpctsales (mean) prodpctsales

    Service vs Product as % Sales - Average All Sample

    Note: Services including maintenance

    (about 55% of services revenues for firms breaking this out)

    Excludes video games

    SaaS counted as product revenue

    Services include professional + maintenance

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    51

    Includes video games

    SaaS counted as product revenue

    Services include professional + maintenance

    S i /M i P d R

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    52 52

    Service/Maintenance vs. Product Revenuese.g. SAP

    e.g. Novell

    S i /M i t P d t R

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    53 53

    Service/Maintenance vs. Product Revenuese.g. Business Objects, Cognos

    e.g. Oracle

    S i /M i t P d t R

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    54 54

    Service/Maintenance vs. Product Revenuese.g. Microsoft

    e.g. Adobe

    S i I t P fit & M k t

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    557

    Services Impact on Profits & MarketValue: Sweet (vs. Sour) Spots

    010

    203040

    506070

    8090

    Prod

    ucts

    Hybrid

    Solutio

    ns

    Service

    s

    %o

    fTotalRevenues

    Products

    Services

    Sweet

    Spot?

    Stuck

    in the

    Middle?

    Scale, Scope, Learning

    Economies?

    20% 60%

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    Lessons for Managers (Idea 6)

    Many if not most product companies today are

    really hybridsthat have to manage both a product

    business and a services business two

    organizations in one

    Servitize products = innovate around the product to

    generates value-added customization, support,

    training, consulting, new pricing/delivery models

    Productize services = software factory-likecustomization, automated service delivery

    Former partners (IT services firms + product

    firms) now must f ight for the same services pie! 56

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    The Search for Best PracticeShould Begin with Practice,

    But Not End There!

    Thank you

    57