Improving the Decision-Relevance of Climate Science for Adaptation Planning

William D. Collins

With Andrew Jones

Lawrence Berkeley National LabUniversity of California, Berkeley

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Overview

• The Big Picture

• State of climate science for California– Lessons from the 4th Assessment

• From climate assessment to climate services– Critical need to evaluate fitness of climate data products

• Work on developing ”decision-relevant” climate metrics

• Promising next steps for climate services

Global Mean Temperature Trend

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1880-2016

90

85

80

1981–2000

75

2041–2060

Business As Usual

Mitigation

2081–2100

Average August Temperature in LAD

egre

es

(F)

Sun, Walton, and Hall 2015, UCLA Center for Climate Change Solutions

Climate change in California

Global National

State Regional

Assessment Reports Provide a Synthesis of What is Known

• More than 50 reports total• 9 regional reports• Hundreds of authors and

stakeholder reviewers

CA 4th Climate Assessment

1. Our global success (or not) in cutting carbon pollution will make a significant difference

for CA climate impacts after 2050.

2.While everyone will seriously affected

by climate impacts, vulnerable populations/communities will be hit harder and will have a tougher time

recovering.

Pacific Institute

3.Land use decisions will be critical to

increasing (or decreasing) our ability to adapt to climate change and to build

more resilient communities.

Sea Level Rise Heat Islands

Agriculture and Working Lands Wildfire Risk

Global Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are Rising

14

IPCC AR5 WG3 SPM

Carbon Dioxide is Main GHG Emitted by California Too

15

10/24 /15, 2:26 PMCalifornia's Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory

Page 1 of 3ht tp:/ /www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ inventory/data/data.ht m

Last reviewed on June 30, 2015

California Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory -

2015 Edition2015 Edition of the GHG Emission Inventory Released (June 2015)

GHG emissions from 2000 to 2013 are now available. Links to data and documentation can be found

below.

Carbon dioxide equivalent values are calculated using the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report Global

Warming Potential values. More information.

Background

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory provides estimates of the amount of GHGs emitted

within California. The Air Resources Board is responsible for maintaining and updating California's

GHG Inventory per H&SC §39607.4 in support of AB 32 goals and programs. The GHG inventory

focuses on primarily anthropogenic sources. Natural sources are not included in the inventory.

The inventory includes estimates for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and

fluorinated gases with high global warming potentials which includes sulfur hexafluoride (SF6),

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). An updated

emission inventory is published annually to include additional years and improved estimation methods.

Archives of all previous inventory data and documentation are available on the archive page.

Emissions by GHG Emissions by Sector

Click the graph for more information

CARB, 2015• California contributes 1% of total global emissions.• Global emissions are growing at >2% per year.• Globally, CO2 accounts for 75% of GHG emissions.

Our Adaptation Challenge

2013→20% by 2050

Rest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of WorldRest of World

Rest of World = Adding 2 California’s Per Year

From climate assessment to climate services

Michael Wehner

Models increasingly able to capture decision-relevant scales and phenomena

IPCC AR4 IPCC AR5 IPCC AR6

1

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1000000

1E+09

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

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nd Implications of Exascale Computing

2012

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~1km

terascale (2000s)

petascale (today)

projected growthactual growth

exascale (2021)

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US Department of Energy’s Launch of Exascale Era

Berkeley: 150-300 PetaFLOP/sec. (2020) Argonne: 1+ ExaFLOP/sec. (2020)

Oak Ridge: 1+ ExaFLOP/sec. (2020)

Range of Uncertainties is Consequential

Agreement on sign of temperature-driven changes

LossofSnowpack ReducedRunoff LowerSoilMoisture

LossofSnowpack ReducedRunoff LowerSoilMoisture

Adapted from NCA Fig 3.1

Adapted from Fig 11.12 IPCC AR4 WGI

Major uncertainties in precipitation magnitude, timing, and location

Information is Evolving Rapidly

Range of California Sea Level Rise Projections over Time

Ocean Protection Council, Rising Seas Report

Practitioner’s DilemmaWhich data to use?

We Need to Partition UncertaintyLi

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Climate Impact

Like

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Climate Impact

Now Future

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Climate ImpactLi

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ReducibleIrreducible

IrreducibleReducible

Chain of UncertaintiesIntegrated

Assessment

Models

Earth System

Models

Downscaling

Methods

Impact

Models

Decision

Context

and People

Jones, A., K. Calvin, and J.-F. Lamarque (2016), Climate modeling with

decision makers in mind, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO051111.

Flood Management

ModelsQuestions

Fundamental Climate Research

Adaptation Decision Contexts

Public Health

An Evolving Role for Assessment

Experiments Observations

Methodologies

Fire Risk Mitigation

Infrastructure Planning

Agriculture

Flood Management

ModelsQuestions

Fundamental Climate Research

Adaptation Decision Contexts

Public Health

An Evolving Role for Assessment

Experiments Observations

Methodologies

Fire Risk Mitigation

Infrastructure Planning

Agriculture

Assessment

Flood Management

ModelsQuestions

Fundamental Climate Research

Adaptation Decision Contexts

Public Health

An Evolving Role for Assessment

Experiments Observations

Methodologies

Fire Risk Mitigation

Infrastructure Planning

Agriculture

Climate Services• Distillation• Tailoring• Ongoing Guidance

Flood Management

ModelsQuestions

Fundamental Climate Research

Adaptation Decision Contexts

Public Health

An Evolving Role for Assessment

Experiments Observations

Methodologies

Fire Risk Mitigation

Infrastructure Planning

Agriculture

Climate ServicesUse-Informed

Credibility Evaluation

Flood Management

ModelsQuestions

Fundamental Climate Research

Adaptation Decision Contexts

Public Health

An Evolving Role for Assessment

Experiments Observations

Methodologies

Fire Risk Mitigation

Infrastructure Planning

Agriculture

Climate ServicesUse-Informed

Credibility Evaluation

Climate Science Applications

Summary90

85

80

1981–2000

75

2041–2060

Business As Usual

Mitigation

2081–2100

Average August Temperature in LA

Deg

rees

(F) We are committed to significant warming, but

mitigation needed to avoid most severe outcomes.

Changing environmental conditions pose new risks for cities, infrastructure, and

working lands.

There is a growing need for climate services to inform adaptation efforts. Stakeholder

feedback can play a critical role in guiding both fundamental science and design of services.

Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience in California

Kate GordonDirector of the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research and Senior Advisor to the Governor on Climate

OPR Mission & Functions

Mission: We serve the Governor and the Cabinet as staff for long-range planning and research, and constitute the comprehensive state planning agency.

Overview

1. What is the current state of climate adaptation and resilience in California?

2. What are some examples of adaptation and resilience in other states?

3. How does climate change relate to other state priorities?

Current State of Climate Adaptation and Resilience in California

California’s Extreme Impacts

California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

Statewide Climate Impacts

Adaptation Vision in California

• All people and communities respond to changing conditions in a manner that minimizes risks to public health, safety, economic disruption, and maximizes equity and protection of the most vulnerable

• Natural systems adjust and maintain functioning ecosystems

• Infrastructure and built systems withstand changing conditions, while continuing to provide essential services

Adaptation and Resilience in Other States

State Examples

• Florida – flood insurance market for hurricanes and regional climate collaboratives

• Washington – predictive models of ocean acidification’s impact on the shellfish economy

• New Jersey and New York – sea level rise and storm surge planning and preparedness

Related State Priorities

Climate and Planning

• General Plan Guidelines (GPG)• Develops long-term

vision for future growth• Requires local

governments to consider climate change in their safety element

• Land use and community planning are central to climate adaptation and resilience

Climate and Finance

• Commission on Catastrophic Wildfire Cost and Recovery• Examines wildfire

liability, insurance, financing mechanisms, andcommunityimpacts

• Climate change is threatening the financial health of our markets

Climate and Transportation

• Transportation emissions are rising• Reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will be

crucial to achieving our greenhouse gas reduction targets

Key Takeaways