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OFFICIAL
IMPROVING BUILDINGS’ ENERGY PERFORMANCE: THE UK GOVERNMENT’S TOOLS AND POLICIES TO
ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES
Chris Nicholls
24th April 2018
OFFICIAL
Overview
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies2
OFFICIAL
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies3
OFFICIAL
The Evolution of Understanding Buildings’ Energy Use
High level, survey and theoretical energy use
(Pre-2010)
Building-level energy use
(Post 2010)
Smart
(Starting now)
• DUKES (Digest of UK Energy Statistics)
• EC UK (Energy Consumption UK)
• Physics-based models
• Pros: Accurate, high-level energy use
• Cons: Little insight in how energy is actually used
•NEED (National Energy Efficiency Data framework)
•Building-level metered energy use data matched with buildings’ and occupants’ information and government scheme participation
•Pros: Actual energy use more accurately understood
• Insight into changes in energy use and abatement opportunities
•Cons: Relies on meter readings, some are estimated
•Non-domestic buildings matching issues
•Smart Meters
•½ hourly records of energy use
•Pros: fully accurate energy use data
•Better understanding of energy use switching/grid balancing
•Better understanding of appliances’ energy use•Cons: Current coverage is patchy
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies4
OFFICIAL
The Gaps
• Understanding the HOW, WHY and WHAT behind energy use statistics
• How is energy used by households/organisations?
• How energy use varies across different households/organisations and why?
• What makes households/organisations change their energy use?
• What is the actual (not theoretical) impact of installing energy efficiency measures?
• What is the impact of government policies on the housing/non-domestic stock?
• And many more…
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies5
OFFICIAL
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies6
OFFICIAL
Domestic NEED (National Energy Efficiency Data framework)
• Buildings’ meter point readings
• Electricity
• Gas
• Building characteristics (Valuation Office Agency)
• Property type (e.g. detached, terrace, flats etc.)
• Size and physical characteristics
• Age
• Household characteristics (Experian - modelled using their credit rating/consumer insight work)
• Income
• Tenure
• Participation in government schemes
• Energy Company Obligation (ECO)
• Green Deal
• Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT)
• Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP)
• Gas safe boiler installations
• Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies7
OFFICIAL
Initial Insights
• How much energy do households really use?
• How much energy is saved by installing energy efficiency measures?
• How much energy could be saved by installing more energy efficiency measures?
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies8
OFFICIAL
NEED – Gas Over Time
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies9
OFFICIAL
Impact of Measures Methodology
• Difference in differences approach
• Each property in the intervention group is also matched to an equivalent property in the comparator group to allow comparisons of median, and distributions
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies10
InterventionPre-intervention
Post-intervention
Gas consumption
Time
A B
C
Intervention groupComparator group
OFFICIAL
NEED – Impact of Energy Efficiency Measures
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies11
OFFICIAL
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies12
OFFICIAL
Domestic Sector Policies
• To help meet the UK’s Carbon Budgets
• Energy Company Obligation (ECO)
• Warm Home Discount (WHD)
• Private Rental Sector regulations (EPC band E)
• Future, more stretching policies needed to meet Clean Growth Strategy’s 5th Carbon Budget’s aims
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies13
OFFICIAL
Policies’ Common Features
• Rely on accurate understanding of abatement potential
• Rely on good understanding of costs and benefits
• Rely on identifying and persuading households/landlords to install measures
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies14
OFFICIAL
NEED’s Impact on Abatement Potential
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies15
OFFICIAL
NEED’s Impact on Costs and Benefits
• Most costs determined by other evidence, e.g. surveys/calls for evidence on installation/hidden costs
• Benefits:
• Energy/CO2 savings
• But if we decarbonise the fuels, benefits from CO2 savings drop off; benefits focussed on energy savings
• Comfort taking benefits
• Health benefits
• Quantifying the extent of under-heating
• Directly linking vulnerable households to health service data
• Enable more fine tuning of policies aimed at alleviating the worst fuel poverty
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies16
OFFICIAL
NEED’s Impact on Behavioural Insight and Targeting
• Planning to build household typology in terms of their likelihood of participating in government insulation schemes
• Provide insight into alternative policies to persuade different household types
• Machine learning
• Better targeting of fuel poor households
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies17
OFFICIAL
Further policy applications
• Green Finance Taskforce “Accelerating Green Finance”:
• Green mortgages
• Understanding borrowers’ affordability and lenders’ risk profile
• Improving the quality of EPC ratings
• Understanding better the implications of pushing higher energy efficiency standards
• How to get there
• Impact on energy use if we do
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies18
OFFICIAL
Overview
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies19
OFFICIAL
Understanding of Non-Domestic Sector is Less Well Developed
• Issues:
• Multiple premises in buildings
• Use of premises differs
• Business models affect energy use
• High tenancy turnover
• Previous evidence base:
• N-DEEM (Non-Domestic Energy Efficiency Model)
• Used site-based surveys aggregated to nationwide using sampling frame
• Pros:
• Accurate record of specific organisation’s energy use and abatement potential
• Cons:
• Weak at explaining variation in energy use and abatement
• Didn’t link to N-D NEED, so missing opportunities for further insight
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies20
OFFICIAL
Non-Domestic NEED
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies21
• Premises-level energy use
• Experian data on organisation occupying
premises
• Energy efficiency: EPC (Energy
Performance Certificate)
• Energy use rating: DEC (Display Energy
Certificate)
• Address matching low for non-domestic
NEED (c. 50% - accuracy rating gives a
probability that the property has been
matched to the meter correctly.)
• Energy use based on meter readings,
many of which are estimated.
• No installation record equivalent of
domestic NEED’s
FRAMEWORK
Coverage: England &
Wales
Consumption:
Metered electricity &
gas only
Non domestic
ratings spine:
Aggregated to
property/site level
OFFICIAL
N-D NEED’s Aspirations
• To understand:
• How energy is used by organisations and sectors
• How energy use varies across different organisations and sectors
• What makes organisations change their energy use
• The actual (not theoretical) impact of installing energy efficiency measures
• The impact of government policies on the non-domestic stock
• But
• Poor premises matching and noise in data restricts the insight
• Little insight into what uses energy
• Little insight into abatement opportunities
• No linked database of installation of energy efficiency measures
• Solution:
• BEES (Building Energy Efficiency Survey)
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies22
OFFICIAL
BEES’s Aims
• To update understanding of how energy is used across the non-domestic building stock in England and Wales
• To update understanding of how energy use can be reduced across the non-domestic building stock
• To understand the barriers and facilitators of energy abatement
• To capitalise on insights from N-D NEED
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies23
OFFICIAL
BEES’s scope – 38 sub-sectorsSector Sub-sector Sector Sub-sector
Retail Hairdressers and beauty salons Health (cont.) Hospitals
Large food shops Nursing homes
Large non-food shops Education Nurseries
Showrooms Primary schools
Small shops Secondary schools
Retail warehouses Higher education – teaching & research
Office Private sector offices Higher education – residential
Public sector offices Emergency services Fire/Ambulance stations
Hospitality Pubs Law courts
Hotels Police Stations
Restaurants & takeaways Prisons
Cafes Military Military offices
Industrial Factories Military storage
Workshops Military accommodation
Storage Cold stores Community, arts & leisure Clubs & community centres
Large distribution warehouses Places of worship
Stores Museums, art galleries & libraries
Warehouses Theatres, concert halls & cinemas
Health Health centres Leisure centres
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies24
OFFICIAL
BEES’s Methodology
• Building stock broken into 38 sub-sectors
• Sampling and grossing based on ND-NEED (which covers 89% of ND floorspace)
• 3,690 telephone surveys (approximately 25 mins)
• 214 site surveys (sample of telephone surveys)
• Tested/moderated the energy use and abatement models
• Verified/corrected telephone survey returns
• Alternative methods where telephone/site surveys couldn’t be conducted
• Barriers/enablers: 126 face to face interviews
• Removed outliers/don’t knows
• Energy use model: used survey evidence combined with other sources
• Abatement model: used survey evidence and database of energy efficiency measures
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies25
OFFICIAL
BEES Energy Use Model – Tree Diagram
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies26
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BEES Energy Use Model Structure
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies27
• Model used to estimate energy consumption by 22 energy end uses (e.g. heating, lighting, small power, etc.) for a typical building or premises for a specific sub-sector, using reference sources. Supplemented by BEES survey, site audits and sub-sector experts.
• This typical building energy use model was then tailored to the actual building (premises) in each individual record using the information from the telephone survey for that building (premises).
• DEC data, site surveys and ND-NEED used to validate estimates
• UCL peer review
OFFICIAL
BEES Abatement Model
• An energy end-use prediction for each premises, generated by the energy use model.
• Telephone survey responses on the premises.
• A database of energy efficiency measures, with defined energy saving impacts and cost factors, drawn from a range of sources.
• Model calibrated by: expert review; site survey comparison; and telephone survey mapping.
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies28
OFFICIAL
BEES Insight
• Total energy use: 161,060 GWh/year
• Main uses:
• Space heating (66,940 GWh/year)• Internal lighting (21,260 GWh/year)
• Catering (13,270 GWh/year)
• Cooled storage (for storage of food and drink) (10,790 GWh/year)
• Abatement potential of 63,160 GWh/year (or 14,630 ktCO2e/year)
• 39 per cent reduction from current energy consumption• Over a third of the potential (22,080 GWh/year) came from measures with a private investment payback of <3 years
• The bill savings from measures with a private payback of <3 years was £1.3bn a year
• Largest abatement potential (representing 55 per cent of the total abatement potential)• Carbon & energy management,
• lighting replacement & control and
• building services instrumentation & control measures
• Barriers to energy efficiency:
• Economic (e.g. low capital availability, investment costs and interventions not sufficiently profitable); • Organisational barriers (e.g. complex decision chains, divergent interests);
• Barriers related to competencies (e.g. identifying the inefficiencies, implementing the interventions); and,
• Behavioural barriers (e.g. lack of interest in energy efficiency, inertia).
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies29
OFFICIAL
BEES vs. ND-NEED: Electricity Consumption
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies30
OFFICIAL
BEES vs. ND-NEED: Electricity Consumption
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies31
OFFICIAL
Overview
The evolution of understanding buildings’ energy use
Understanding domestic sector buildings
Domestic sector policies
Understanding non-domestic sector buildings
Non-domestic sector policies
Future development plans
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies32
OFFICIAL
How BEES and ND-NEED have Influenced Policies
• Clean Growth Strategy – reducing business and public sector energy demand by 20% by 2032:
• Help set the target
• Helped understand how the target can be met
• Couldn’t have set the target without it
• ND-NEED helps us understand:
• how different policies interact
• which organisations are in scope for different policies
• E.g. simplified carbon reporting
• Impact of policies:
• Econometric analysis compared energy consumption between Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) participants and the comparison groups for the period 2006 to 2012. Findings: CRC participants reduced electricity consumption (>6,000MWh) by an annual average of 3-5% between 2010 and 2012, compared to information declarers (>2,000MWh, <6,000MWh).
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies33
OFFICIAL
Other Value Added by BEES and ND-NEED
• Informing evaluation of:
• CRC (Carbon Reduction Commitment)
• CCA (Climate Change Agreements)
• ESOS (Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme)
• Public sector loans
• EDR (Electricity Demand Reduction)
• Stakeholders:
• We understand sector lobbying better, esp. for smaller organisations
• Better understanding of how abatement potential differs for different sectors
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies34
OFFICIAL
Future Work
• Data science:
• Understanding outliers
• Benchmarking (esp. industries)
• Bills and operational costs - who's most exposed to energy costs within sectors
• Matching Non-Dom EPC data to NEED to see how good EPCs are
• Only 2/3rds of measures BEES recommends would be picked up by EPCs - missing: behaviour and controls
• Green Finance Taskforce’s recommendations
• Two big evidence gaps
• Heat - processes, heating and cooling
• Re-working BEES data to get additional insight into this
• What buildings currently use
• What would a good low carbon system look like?
• Industrial process energy efficiency
• Outside scope of BEES
• Very heterogeneous sector
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies35
OFFICIAL
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies36
Challenges
Further Insight
References
Annexes
OFFICIAL
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies37
Challenges
Further Insight
References
Annexes
OFFICIAL
Establishing the data-framework
• Unique address and property identifiers are key to NEED’s operation – the spine for all the other data sets
• Custom coding required to write the algorithm to process property identifier records
• Once unique property identifiers established (easier for domestic then non-domestic) the data-framework could be built
• Large database requires a shared SAS server across DECC
• NEED team:
• Establishing NEED required around 7 people, plus ad-hoc assistance from others around the department
• Challenge to adequately resource NEED on ongoing basis
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies38
OFFICIAL
Challenges along the way
• Energy use based on meter readings, many of which are estimated.
• Address matching low for non-domestic NEED (c. 50% - accuracy rating gives a probability that the property has been matched to the meter correctly.)
• Non-domestic NEED does not have an installation record equivalent of domestic NEED’s.
• Measure installation is binary: there is no record of the percentage of a house covered with insulation.
• We have no record of DIY installations of measures
• Experian data for domestic sector (providing household characteristics) is modelled, so not wholly accurate
• Large database issues: data imports sometimes fail; run time can be slow
• Getting permissions from various parties
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies39
OFFICIAL
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies40
Challenges
Further Insight
References
Annexes
OFFICIAL
NEED – Distribution of energy use
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies41
OFFICIAL
NEED – Type of Property
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies42
OFFICIAL
NEED – Property Size
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies43
OFFICIAL
NEED – Income
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies44
OFFICIAL
NEED – Impact of Energy Efficiency Measures
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies45
OFFICIAL
Energy Use When Households Move
Annual energy usage in year before and after change of occupancy in 2012 (KWh)
• NEED matched with Land Registry residential property sales data
• Sample excludes properties with known installations
• New buyer effect possibly due to buying new appliances, building modifications, behavioural change
• Are the effects permanent?
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies46
Gas Electricity
2011 2013 Change 2011 2013 Change
Properties sold in 2012 Mean 16,300 14,200 -2,100 4,500 3,500 -1,000
Median 15,000 13,000 -1,000 3,800 3,000 -800
Comparison Group Mean 16,200 15,600 -600 4,500 4,200 -300
Median 15,000 14,400 -600 3,900 3,600 -300
All Properties Mean 14,100 13,500 -600 4,200 4,000 -200
Median 12,900 12,400 -500 3,400 3,300 -100
OFFICIAL
Further Insights Planned (Domestic)
• Deeper data science analysis: e.g. understanding outliers better; benchmarking etc.
• A lot of the WHY questions remain unanswered
• Match to other datasets with addresses to provide further insights
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies47
OFFICIAL
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies48
Challenges
Further Insight
References
Annexes
OFFICIAL
References
• Energy Statistics: https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy/about/statistics
• DUKES: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes-2017-main-report
• ECUK: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-consumption-in-the-uk
• Sub-National Energy Statistics: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/678653/Sub-national_electricity_and_gas_consumption_summary_report_2016.pdf
• Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP): https://www.bre.co.uk/sap2012/page.jsp?id=2759
• NEED: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-energy-efficiency-data-framework-need-report-summary-of-analysis-2017
• BEES Overarching Report: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/565748/BEES_overarching_report_FINAL.pdf
• BEES Technical Annex: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/566038/BEES_Technical_Annex_FINAL.pdf
• CRS Evaluation: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evaluation-of-the-crc-energy-efficiency-scheme
• Clean Growth Strategy: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/clean-growth-strategy
• Energy Company Obligation: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/energy-company-obligation-eco3-2018-to-2022
• Green Finance Taskforce: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/695176/green-finance-taskforce-accelerating-green-finance.pdf
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies49
OFFICIAL
What is NEED?
Energy company billing systems
Xoserve [For 4 aggregators -
approx. 20m meters]
IGTs [other 6 aggregators -
app. 1m meters]
Data aggregators[31 organisations]
Meter Number (MPAN) and Address
Meter readings
Gemserv
Electricity
Gas
Matching via AddressBase
UPRNMeter Number (MPRN), address and
consumption
Supplier permissions SoTA
Consumption and meter number (MPAN)
Meter readings
HEED energy efficiency
measures installed
(managed by EST)
Energy Performance Certificates
Experian Residata
Energy suppliers
EST web-survey (self completion)
Housing Surveys
Data from trade associations (e.g. FENSA, Gas Safe)
Walker Martin
Measures delivered through Gov’t schemes
Construction and measures installed in homes
Measure installed, date of installation and address
NEED Analysis file at VOA
(inc. prop attributes data)
Matching to other data
Output Area Classification
National Statistics Postcode Directory
Experian consumer surveys
Experian household demographics and mosaic
Modelling
Measures delivered (excluding supply info)
Household level estimates for income and tenure
Meter point consumption data
Energy efficiency measures installed
Household characteristics
Data inputs
Natio
nal E
nerg
y Effi
cienc
y Da
ta-F
ram
ewor
k (NE
ED)
Data inputs
Assessment by accredited
assessor
Census 2001
ONS data
Valuation Office Agency Property Attributes DataProperty surveys
Voluntary questionnaires
Information from Local Authorities on planning consent.
Freely available information e.g. information about properties sold. Property
attributes
Linking via UARN/UPRN
lookup
Consumption data(used for sub-nat)
GROS
NISRA
Royal Mail
Ordnance Survey
Energy Company Obligation
(ECO) measures installed
Ofgem
Obligated energy suppliers
Matching via AddressBase
UPRN
Improving Buildings' Energy Performance: The UK Government's Tools and Policies50