Important graphs on «US, Canada & Mexico oil & gas net ... · ExxonMobil 2018 outlook for energy forecasts in 2040 about 9 Mb/d of net export from North America with 11 Mb/d net

1

Jean Laherrere 5 June 2018 Important graphs on «US, Canada & Mexico oil & gas net import » -3 papers Most of the following graphs come from 3 papers -“Forecasts for US oil and gas production” March https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march.pdf -“Forecasts for Canada oil and gas production” May https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/canada2018.pdf -“US, Canada & Mexico oil & gas production, consumption & net import” May https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/uscame2018.pdf -main assumptions -several symmetrical curves in the USL48 because a large number of producers (not the case in Alaska) US annual number of wells drilled Bakken North Dakota oil monthly production

-estimation of the “ultimate “ (EUR) with HL = Hubbert linearization -Pennsylvania anthracite production Pennsylvania anthracite annual production & model U = 5 Gt

HL of Pennsylvania anthracite production cumulative production and reserves

0

12

24

36

48

60

72

84

96

108

120

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

pric

e $2

016/

b

annu

al n

umbe

r of

wel

ls

year

US annual number of wells drilled

all wellsoilgasdryoil price $2016/bgas price $2016/MBtu

Jean Laherrere Feb 2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

oil p

rodu

ctio

n kb

/d

year

North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production

kb/d

Jean Laherrere May 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n M

t

year

Pennsylvania anthracite annual production & model U=5 Gt

U= 5 Gtprod Rutledge MtEIA anthracite Mt

Jean Laherrere 2018 source Rutledge

2

HL can estimate ultimate reserves in 1916 at 5 Gb = real value, before the peak in 1917. Geological reserves in 1954 at 15.4 Gt were three times the real value! -France & Belgium coal production France & Belgium coal production started in 1815, peaked in 1957 and stopped in 2008 with a total production of 7.2 Gt

HL of coal production for the period 1927-1947 trends towards 6.3 Gt WEC ultimates (geological estimates ) were in 1920 around 20 Gt (33 Gt in 1936!)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

aP/C

P %

cumulative production Gt

Pennsylvania anthracite Hubbert linearization 1800-2017

1800-1875

1875-1916

1916-2017

Jean Laherrere 2018 source: Rutledge & EIA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

cum

ulat

ive

prod

uctio

n G

t & u

ltim

ates

year

Pennsylvania anthracite cumulative production & ultimates

geological ultimatesHL ultimatesdecline ultimatescum prod

Jean Laherrere 2018 source Rutledge

0

16

32

48

64

80

96

112

128

144

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

pric

e $/

t

annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n M

t

year

France & Belgium coal annual production

Rutledge Mt

EIA Mt

price US anthracite $/t

price NW Europe $/t

Jean Laherrere 2010 source: Rutledge, EIA

wars

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

aP/C

P %

cumulative production Gt

France & Belgium coal Hubbert linearization 1815-2007

aP/CP%

1850-1884

1884-1913

1927-1943

1956-2007

Jean Laherrere 2015 source: Rutledge

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gt

year

France & Belgium coal cumulative production & ultimates

WEC ultimates

HL ultimates

decline ultimates

cum prod

Jean Laherrere 2015 source: Rutledge

3

-Canada Canada crude oil (35-40 Gb) +NGL (14 Gb) +oilsands (50-225 Gb) ultimate estimates can vary from 100 to 150 and 250 Gb depending upon the above ground constraints on oilsands production (pollution and pipeline) Canada liquids could peak around 2025, 2035 or 2050 Canada oil consumption is in 2016 880 Mb (production = 1600 Mb) and will stay at this level for the next 50 years (consumption per capita 23 b/cap/a declining at 0.4 %/a). Canada oil export could stop either before 2050 or 2070 or after 2100

Canada natural gas marketed production has peaked in 1979, 2002 and will peak again around 2020 for an ultimate of 400 Tcf Canada NG consumption has been increasing and will continue for the next 50 years Canada NG export will stop before 2040.

0,0

0,5

1,1

1,6

2,2

2,7

3,3

3,8

4,4

4,9

5,5

6,0

6,6

7,1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Mb/

d

Mb

year

Canada crude oil + oilsands + NGL annual production & oil consumption U = 250 GbU = 150 GbU= 100 GbCAPP2017prod allcons b/cap*pop 23.4 decline 0,4%/acons BPcons IEAprod oilsandsprod crudeprod NGLcons IEO2017NEB2017WEO2017

Jean Laherrere April 2018

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Tcf

year

Canada natural gas production & consumptionrawWEO2016 NPIEO 2017NEB 2017U = 400 TcfCAPP 2015 new marketCAPP 2015 status quomarketedforec cons 0.1 Mcf/capcons BPforec mark-consmark-consnet export to US


4

-US US all liquids production peaked in 1970 and 2015 at 5.5 Gb. For an ultimate of 400 Gb, US production will be around 1 Gb in 2050 against a forecast of 6.2 Gb (crude +NGL) for EIA/AEO 2018 (adding refinery gain and biofuels about 0.8 Gb in 2017 = 7 Gb) The LTO production peaked in 2015 and its decline is assumed to be as sharp as its increase. US oil consumption peaked in 1979 and 2005, presently increasing and will peak around 2060 US oil import (consumption less production) peaked in 1977 at 3 Gb and in 2005 at 4.6 Gb, at a low of 1.7 Gb in 2016 and will increase to 6.8 Gb in 2050, against 1 Gb for AEO2018.

US NG marketed production peaked in 1973 at 22.7 Tcf and likely in 2020 at 29 Tcf for an ultimate of 2500 Tcf, being at 16 Tcf in 2050 against 43 Tcf (dry) for AEO 2018 US NG consumption peaked in 1973 at 22 Tcf and after a low at 16.8 in 1983 is in 2016 at 27.5 Tcf, and will increase to 33 Tcf in 2050. US NG net import peaked in 2007 at 3.8 Tcf and in 2017 is around zero. For an ultimate of 2500 Tcf the net import in 2050 will be 17 Tcf when AEO2018 forecasts a net export of 8.5 Tcf: the difference is huge = 25 Tcf. An article “Hubbert linearization: a "new” and explicit method to estimate petroleum reserves and its application to U.S. shale gas and oil resources” Jean Laherrere and Charles A.S. Hall is presently submitted to Nature Energy edition.

0,0

2,7

5,5

8,2

11,0

13,7

16,4

19,2

21,9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Mb/

dGb

year

US all liquids production, consumption & import

forec cons

cons Gb

U= 400 Gb

prod all liq

forec cons-prod

cons-prod

net import crude+pet

refinery gain

biofuels prod

AEO2018 net import

AEO2018 cons

AEO2018 crude+NGL

STEO Ap2018


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Tcf

year

US natural gas annual production, consumption, import & forecasts

U = 2500 TcfmarketedAEO2018dryconsumption AEO 2018cons Tcfforec consnet import Tcfnet import AEO2018cons-markforec cons-mark


5

-Mexico Mexico all liquids production peaked in 1931 and 2004 at 3.8 Mb/d, but is in 2017 at 2.3 Gb and will for an ultimate of 75 Gb (with new deepwater production) at 1.4 Mb/d in 2040 against 3.4 Mb/d for Mex2016 Mexico oil consumption has peaked in 2008 at 2 Mb/d and will decline to 1.8 Mb/d in 2040. Mexico oil net export has peaked in 1983 and 2004 and likely will turned into import around 2035

Mexico marketed NG has peaked in 1983 and 2010 and for an ultimate of 110 Tcf will decline to 0.6 Tcf in 2040, against 2.1 Tcf for WEO2016NP Mexico NG consumption peaked in 1985 and after a low in 1989 has increased to 3.2 Tcf in 2016 and will peak at 3.5 Tcf around 2040 Mexico NG net import has increased sharply since 1999 and will reach 2.5 Tcf in 2040 against 1.9 Tcf for SENER.

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n M

b/d

year

Mexico all liquids production & consumptionMexEO2016 prod

WEO2012 prod

U = 75 Gb

all liq

MexicoEO2016 cons

forec cons

cons EIAcons BP

forec prod-cons

prod - cons

net export Pemex

net export to US


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Tcf

year

Mexico NG marketed production, consumption & import

demand SENER

cons decl 0.5%/a

cons BP

U= 110 Tcf

prod SENER 2016

WEO2016 NP

synt mark

net import SENER

forec cons - U=100 Tcf

cons-mark

Jean Laherrere 3 May 2018

6

-North America -oil US, Canada and Mexico (North America) are strongly connected with oil and gas pipelines and they must considered as one unit for export. Europe is counting on North America oil export in 2040, together with Russia and Middle East ExxonMobil 2018 outlook for energy forecasts in 2040 about 9 Mb/d of net export from North America with 11 Mb/d net import for Europe The North America conventional oil is only 4 Mb./d in 2040

NAm oil consumption peaked in 2004 above 9 Gb and is presently at 8.7 Gb, forecasted to stay around 9 Gb for the next 50 years NAm oil production has peaked in 2016 at 8 Gb and will be at 4.5 Gb in 2040 for an ultimate of 625 Gb, against the double for WEO2017NP

NAm oil net import has varied from 1 to 3 Gb from 1965 to 2017, with peaks in 1979 and 2006, but on 3016 at 0.6 Gb. It will be in 2040 at 5 Gb against -2.4 Gb for WEO2017NP: a difference of over 7 Gb! OPEC WOO2017 forecasts a net export of 1.3 Gb. ExxonMobil outlook 2018 forecasts NAm oil net export in 2040 at over 3 Gb (9 Mb/d), more than WEO2017 NP NAm oil net import in Gb coincides perfectly with net import in Mtoe: for me it means that authors use a constant heat content, because in fact it varies with time!

-8,2

-5,5

-2,7

0,0

2,7

5,5

8,2

11,0

13,7

16,4

19,2

21,9

24,6

27,4

30,1

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Mb/

d

Gb

year

North America oil production, consumption & net import

WOO2017 consWEO2017 NP consIEO2017 cons forec consBP cons GbWEO2017 NP prodWOO2017 prodU = 625 Gb prod Gbforec importWOO2017 importWEO2017 NP importnet import Gb


1978 NAm import peak1998 Scientific American "the end of cheap oil"2007 ASPO Cork J.Schlesinger "you can declare victory"2008 US LTO start, NAm import peak2020 NAm import rises again or not?

-429

-286

-143

0

143

286

429

571

714

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Mto

e

Gb

year

North America oil net import

forec importWOO2017 importWEO2017 NP importnet import Gbnet import IEA Mtoe


7

-natural gas ExxonMobil 2018 outlook for energy forecasts in 2040 a NAm net export of 20 Gcf/d (7 Tcf) and for Europe a net import of 14 Tcf (LNG = 5 Tcf)

NAm conventional NG peaked in 2000! NAm NG production peaked in 1973 and is presently plateauing at 36 Tcf : it is forecasted for an ultimate of 3000 Tcf in 2040 to be at 26 Tcf against 47 Tcf for WEO2017NP NAM NG consumption was close to NG production from 1965 to 2017; it is forecasted to be in 2040 around 40 Tcf

NAM net import is forecasted in 2040 to be 13 Tcf against -7 Tcf for WEO2017NP NAm NG net import in Gb does not agree with net import in Mtoe for the zero years. Net NG net import as consumption less production for US, Canada & Mexico in Mtoe US and Canada are roughly opposite for the period 1973-2013.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tcf

year

North America natural gas production, consumption & net import WEO2017NP prodU = 3000 Tcfmark prodIEO2017 consWEO2017NP demandforec consconsforec net importWEO2017 cons-prod net import


-250

-125

0

125

250

375

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040M

toe

Tcf

year

North America natural gas net import

forec net importWEO2017 cons-prodExxonMobilEO2018cons-prod BP Tcf net importcons-prod BP Mtoenet import IEA Mtoecons-prod IEA Mtoe


-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e

year

US, Canada, Mexico natural gas consumption less production & net import from IEAUS cons-prodUS net importNAm cons-prodNAm net importMe cons-prodMe net importCa cons-prodCa net import


source IEA Atlas of energyhttps://www.iea.org/statistics/ieaenergyatlas/

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mto

e

year

US, Canada, Mexico natural gas consumption less production from IEA & BP

BP USIEA USBP NAM cons-prodNAm cons-prodBP MeIEA MeBP CaIEA Ca


source IEA Atlas of energyhttps://www.iea.org/statistics/ieaenergyatlas/

8

-Conclusion

IEA, as ExxonMobil, forecasts that North America oil & gas net export will exist in 2020, increasing to 2040, thanks to shale plays. Our forecast is that from 2022 North America will be forced to import oil and gas. Donald Trump’s pressure on Angela Merkel on Russian North Stream II is based on wrong forecasts.

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Gb,

Tcf

/6

year

North America oil & NG net import 1965-2040

forec import GbWOO2017 import GbWEO2017 NP import GbExxonM2018 Gbnet import oil Gbforec NG import Tcf/6WEO2017 cons-prod Tcf/6ExxonM2018 Tcf/6net import NG Tcf/6


9

-Annex -Main US shale oil & gas producers or exporters -exporter -Cheniere = importer turning into exporter Cheniere share = symbol = LNG

First Sabine plant was designed for gasification of import LNG, but later changed into liquefaction of export NG. Charif Souki, founder of Cheniere in 1983, highest CEO salary in 2013, was ousted in 2015 by Carl Icahn. Since 2016 he founded Tellurian Inc. Cheniere forecast since 2017 a strong US LNG trade, steady from 2020 to 2040 about 70 Mt/a Cheniere Presentation May 2018 AR 2016

Cheniere Energy had a subsidiary “Oil and Gas Exploration, Development and Exploitation Activities” with an office in Paris, France. Jean-Marie Bourdaire was advisor to the President of Cheniere Energy (in his CV in ASPO France)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

stoc

k pr

ice

$

G$

year

Cheniere annual reports: revenues, income, assets, debt & stock price

assets

LT debt

income

revenues

stock price $ name LNG


10

-producers -Chesapeake Chesapeake was founded in 1989 by Aubrey McClendon: he was a land-man and he promoted fracking. Chesapeake stock price (CHK) close to HH spot price for the period 2004-2010

Chesapeake stock price peaked in 1996, 2007 and 2014

McClendon was in 2008 the highest paid CEO, but in 2013 Chesapeake’s board ousted him as CEO, after a series of conflict-of-interest allegations and a huge wrong-way bet on natural gas prices (Carl Icahn was on the board). The next day, he started a new company “American Energy Partners”. In 2015 American Energy, which was struggling under heavy debt, still-low gas prices, and growing investor concern about his legal battle with Chesapeake removed him of his positions. On March 1, 2016, McClendon was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of conspiring "to rig bids for the purchase of oil and natural gas leases in northwest Oklahoma. The following day, he died, driving, without seat belt at high speed, his car into a wall: police reported that it was an accident!

11

Cheasapeake is the second US NG producer after Exxon Mobil for the period 2011-2017 , but it was first in 2010 before ExxonMobil bought XTO in 2010 for 36 G$ (11 G$ debt) CHK assets peaked in 2011-2013 and dropped after the sale to several majors (BHP 4.8 G$ for Arkansas, Total 2.3 G$ for 25% Utica and later 0.5 G$ for 75%, Sinopec 1 G$ for Oklahoma). CHK assets fell in 2015 as proved reserves and as stock price

CHK net income was zero or negative for the period 1993-2017 despite the rise of assets.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

stoc

k pr

ice

$, a

sset

s G$

prov

ed r

eser

ves T

cfe

year

Chesapeake annual reserves, assets & stock price

proved reserves Tcfeassets G$stock price $


sale of assets toTotal 2016 2.3 G$Sinopec 2013 1 G$

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

prod

uctio

n M

b, st

ock

pric

e $

prod

uctio

n Tc

fyear

Chesapeake annual oil & gas production, stock price

prod NG Tcf

prod oil Mb

prod NGL Mb

stock price $


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

prov

ed r

eser

ves T

cfe

G$

year

Chesapeake annual reports: revenues, income, assets, debt

revenues G$

income G$

assets G$

LT debt G$

proved reserves Tcfe


12

-EOG EOG is the new name given in 1999 by Mark Papa president & CEO (32 years with Enron)) of Enron Oil & Gas Company, purchased for 1.2 Gb from Enron (which fell in bankruptcy in 2001 due to a financial scandal: it was the largest bankruptcy at that time and caused the fall of Arthur Andersen). EOG stock price at 2.5 $ in 1990 (before 1999 it was Enron oil & gas Company), 4 $ in 1999, displaying up to 2018 (118 $ 1st June 2018) a considerable growth (50 times from 1990 and 30 times from EOG start)

Assets increased significantly from 200 to 2017 as stock price and as US liquids reserves, less than revenues , but net income stays low , even negative in 2015.

Mark Papa retired in 2013 from EOG and in 2015 founded “Centennial Resource Development”.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

stoc

k pr

ice

$

G$

year

EOG annual reports: revenues, income, assets, debt & stock price

assetsdebtrevenues G$net incomestock price $


EOG is the new name in 1999 of Enron oil & gas company, purchased for 1.2 G$ from Enron (later in 2001 in bankrutpty)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

US

prov

ed d

evel

oped

liqu

ids r

eser

ves M

b

G$

year

EOG annual reports: revenues, income, assets, debt & US liq reserves

assetsdebtrevenues G$net incomeUS PD liq reserves Mb


EOG is the new name in 1999 of Enron oil & gas company, purchased for 1.2 G$ from Enron (later in 2001 in bankrutpty)

13

In Nov 2017 Mark Papa divided by half the optimistic EIA US oil production growth forecast, based on GOM decline, lack of drilling locations in Bakken and Eagle Ford, frac hits (JPT Nov 2017 from Schlumberger , Shell, Chevron & Statoil studies) and “completion technology can’t cure bad rock” (it is not Silicon Valley) EOG CEO WR Thomas forecasts EOG growth for decades to come in Feb 2018

But Mark Papa was saying the same thing in 2013, as in 2007: growth for ever

Why is now Mark Papa pessimistic on LTO?

14

-Centiennal Resource Development Centiennal Resource Development is founded in 2015 by Mark Papa (changing the name of Silver Run Acquisition Corporation) with activities only in the Delaware (Permian) Basin Centennial stock price stays flat for the last 2 years below 20 $

Papa wants to keep debt low, but if assets& production increase, net income stays around zero.

But it is difficult to explain new Mark Papa’s stand on LTO.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

prod

Mbo

e

G$

year

Centennial ResourceDevelopment: revenues, income, assets, debt & reserves

assets G$LT debtrevenues G$incomeprod Mboe


Documents

Important graphs on «US, Canada & Mexico oil & gas net ... · ExxonMobil 2018 outlook for energy forecasts in 2040 about 9 Mb/d of net export from North America with 11 Mb/d net