phD proposal by:Magambo EK

2010

BACKGROUND INFORMATION/INTRODUCTION

Water is the key medium that links atmospheric temperature rises to changes in human and physical systems

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”; this is by UNFCCC (2002), Geneva.

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BACKGROUND cont’dClimate change will alter the hydrological

cycle in many ways. The trigger is the warming of the atmosphere

and oceans, which will change major weather systems.

This will alter the temporal and spatial partners of rainfall with consequences for runoff, surface and groundwater storage, river flow regimes and it is estimated greater likehood of extremes, droughts and floods, in different parts of the world. 3

BACKGROUND cont’dThese changes, will affect major human

livelihood systems, particularly those dependent on direct access to natural resources or assets.

Rain fed agriculture, human settlement pattern and movement, water supplies, sanitation and irrigation will all be affected leading to changes in human health, wealth and security.

On the demand side, increase in population, urbanization and changes in income levels, will change their demand for water resources , both spatially and temporally.

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General Effects of Climate ChangeWater- intensification of hydrological cycle and

related impactsAgriculture- Effects on yields due to changes in

seasonality and pests and diseasesEcosystems- shifting of ecosystems due to changes

in environmental conditionsHealth- increase in health problems due to vector

and water borne diseases, and heat wavesCoastlines- rise in sea level leading to

displacements and effects on quality and quantity of ground water due to contamination with salt water

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Governance StructuresWater governance can be defined as the range of

political, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place to regulate the development and management of water resources and provision of water services at different levels of society. The types governace include:-

Public water provision- Government, or cooperatives and user associations

Public- private partnershipPrivate governance

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Statement of the ProblemIPCC technical paper on climate change and

water states that Water resources issues have not been adequately addressed in climate change analysis and climate policy formulations.

Likewise, in most cases climate change problems have not been dealt with in water resource analysis, management and policy formulation.

This suggests a gap in the analysis required to understand the full effects of climate change on human and natural systems and moreover, how policy makers can and should improve future responses to climate change at country, regional and international levels, including community level.

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Statement of the Problem cont’dThis is because without sufficient knowledge

at basin level, policy makers and practitioners in the water sector can make serious mistakes and generate maladaption responses.

It is from these critical issues on impacts of climate change in relation to water, and water governance that the researcher seeks to investigate the responses from the stakeholders in the water sector.

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Objectives of the StudyThe four broader objectives are: To investigate what mechanisms are in place to

respond to impacts of climate change on water.To establish to what extent various forms of

water governance are applied in water management in Kenya.

To investigate the challenges of water governance in the public sector.

To investigate whether public sector water governance stakeholders are ready to combat challenges of climate change on water availability.

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SPECIFIC PRIMARY RESEARCH QUESTIONSWhat changes in climate are expected by

2030 in Kenya?What impacts could climate change have on

water availability and water services sector?How might water availability be impacted by

these changes?How might water supply be impacted by

these changes?

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QUESTIONS cont’dIs the future supply: demand ratio

sustainable with climate change?How would these characteristics be

managed/ mitigated to become sustainable?Examine plan of action to combat climate

change in water sector?

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RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

H0: Climate change does not impact on water services.

H1: AlternativeHo: Climate change has no impact on water

governance.H1: AlternativeHo: water governance has no impact on

water services

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LITERATURE REVIEWResearch on the effects of climate change on

water supply and water demand has not been balanced. While the supply (river flow, rainfall-runoffs, evapo-transpiration-recharge and hydrology) has received considerable scrutiny, the demand side has been neglected. Although water demand has been referred to in climatic studies, empirical evidence is lacking, little in depth, analytical work has been carried out (IPCC, 1996, 1998 and 2001).

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Evidence of gaps in climate change research It is evident from IPCC 2001 survey and other

studies (Arnell (1998), Goluber (1993), Strzepec (1998) that there have been a great number of studies on the

potential effects of climate change on hydrology. The reports further show that of those studies

that looked at hydrology, a majority focused on water balance, specifically effects of climate change on precipitation, runoff, and evaporation rates, recharge and stream flow.

The survey further reveals that a small number of studies look at the impacts of those changes for water resources and still fewer explicitly considered possible adaptation strategies. 14

Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’dTo show the extent of bias in water resources and

climate change research, 305 articles surveyed by the IPPC (2001) references on hydrology and water resources, only 30 articles are demand related.

On these 14 are on impacts of climate change, and irrigation, 13 are on management in the face of climate change and 3 are concerned with urban water use.

None referred to rural water demand and supply for domestic use. Out of 305 articles, 275 focused on runoff, hydrology, evaporation, glaciers and stream flow.

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Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’dIPCC review and other studies are mainly

concerned with projections of the extreme weather floods, droughts, Elnino, Lanina phenomena and hydrology.

Boland (1997), Doll (2002) and Kazmarek (1996) reach the same observations, that there is substantial amount of literature on analysis of possible impacts of climate change on water supply, while impacts on water demand (such as irrigation, urban water demand, municipal) have been virtually ignored.

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Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’dIt has been concluded that climate change will

lead to an increase in water demand. Thus having anticipated the impacts of climate change on water demand, water planners and managers especially those on the demand side, are increasingly calling for integrating climate change impacts into water demand management (Dankor and Wolde, undated).

From the few studies on water demand and climate change/variability it can be concluded that climate change has positive effect on water use at the urban domestic level.

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LITERATURE REVIEW ON WATER GOVERNANCEWater governance can be traced back more that

5000 years. However it was only in 1982 and 1997 respectively that global water agreements like UN conventions on the sea and water courses were adopted.

Only recently has water become prominent on the global political agenda, for example with Mar del Plata Conference of 1997, the Dublin Conference on water 1992, the water chapter in agenda 21 adopted in 1992, the four world water fora since 1997 and Millennium Declaration of 2000.

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WATER GOVERNANCE cont’dLikewise, scientific work on water has only

recently been globalized - for example with the Global water system project of the Earth system science partnering and the UN-wide world water assessment programme.

Growing political interest in water research and governance raises the questions: what are the appropriate levels at which research and policy on water governance should be undertaken, and which issues should be addressed at which levels.

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WATER GOVERNANCE cont’dWater is a major global public good. Global

governance theories that do not actively study the management of global pubic goods, particularly in the environmental area will miss the rapidly evolving key issues of the twenty first century

Important aspects of contemporary water governance come in the form of international law.

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WATER GOVERNANCE IN KENYA In response to the plan of action agreed on in

2002 and in an effort to meet MDGs Government of Kenya enacted Water Act,2002.

This put in place various institutions for water management as given in the chart below

The study will focus on analysing how effective these institutions are in meeting their mandate in the face os climate change

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WATER GOVERNANCE IN KENYA cont’dAnalyzing the water supply and sanitation

services governance in Kenyan sector, therefore must focus on the current situation of service provision by looking at actors al all levels, what policies and strategies are governing their activities, the existing challenges and gaps in water and sanitation service provision and define interventions for ensuring better provision for those who are currently un-served or inadequately served.

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GRAPHICAL ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF WATER GOVERNACE

IN PUBLIC SECTOR IN KENYA

Consumers/ Users:source;draft report on status of water sector reforms in Kenya,

2007

Policy and strategy formulation legislation,

coordination and evaluation

MWI Ministry of Water and

Irrigation

WASREB Water Services Regulatory Board

WSTF Water Services

Trust Fund

WAB Water Appeal

Board

NWCPC National Water Cons.

and Pipeline corp.

KEWI Kenya Water

Institute

WRMA Water Resource

Management Authority

NIB National

Irrigation Board

Regulate and monitor provision

Finance provision or wss to poor areas

Determine appeals

Develop and manage state schemes

Training and Research

Develop, manage national schemes

Regulate manage water resources

WSBs Water Services Boards WSS Asset holders and developers

CAACs Catchment Area Advisory Committees

Advice on conservation and appointment

WSBs LVEN, LVS, RV, ATHI, TANA NORTHERN COAST

WSPs- Water Services Providers Direct provision of the services

WRUAs - Water Resource User Association Conservative management of water resources

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Means Impacts/Affects

CLIMATE CHANGE LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS

STAKEHOLDERS WATER RESOURCES

WATER MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONS

WATER GOVERNANCE

Explanation of Conceptual FrameworkClimate change impacts negatively on water

resources due to increased rates of evaporation and frequency of extremes such as floods

The effects on water quantity affects peoples livelihoods due to reduced water for domestic, industrial and irrigation use

Reduced water quality affects peoples health through water borne diseases

Water governance affects water resources both in quality and quantity and this consequently affects peoples’ livelihoods

Water management institutions determine the governance structures and therefore affect water resources

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGYRESEARCH DESIGN Our study will employ a descriptive survey design; it

will collect data from the population to determine, and report the way things are

POPULATION OF THE STUDYOur study area will comprise the Athi catchment

which is one of the six basins into which WRMA has divided the country for water management purposes.

All WRMA and WSREB institutions in Athi will form the population of the study

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METHODOLOGY cont’dAthi catchment is comprised of six regions

which are named as follows: Kiambu, Nairobi, Kibwezi, Loitokitok, Mombasa, Kwale.

SAMPLE AND SAMPLING METHODTwo of the regions in Athi will be selected to

represent Urban and Rural scenarios. These are Kiambu and Nairobi regions. Items for the sample will be randomly picked from the two regions such that 30% WRMA and 30% of WSREB institutions are represented

Stratified random sampling will be used to pick elements for the sample

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METHODOLOGY cont’dVARIABLES OF THE SUTDYThe variables of the study will be impacts of

climate change on water resources, and water governance.

DATA COLLECTIONThe research instrument to be used will be

questionnaires, interviews recorded on well structured questionnaires

secondary data will be used to obtain factual information held by the water actors in the Athi region about climate change and water governance.

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METHODOLOGY cont’dDATA ANALYSIS Data analysis will be conducted using

descriptive statistics. This will include measures of central tendency (the mean), measures of spread (standard deviation) and frequency tabulations.

Trend analysis will also be used to establish the actions of the actors on water governance in response to climate change.

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BUDGET

ACTIVITY COST (Kenya Shillings)

Proposal typing, editing and printing 50,000.00

Cover letter and questionnaire typing and printing 10,000.00

Following up on non-respondents 10,000.00

Travel expenses 40,000.00

Data entry and verification 20,000.00

Statistical analysis programmer 20,000.00

Typing work 15,000.00

Printing 15,000.00

Binding and hand over of final report 20,000.00

TOTAL 200,000.00

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WORKPLAN

Task Time scales

Submit Synopsis and goal clarification 4weeks

Overall study design 2 weeks

Selecting the sample 1 week

Designing of questionnaire and cover letter 1 week

Revise questionnaire if necessary 2 weeks

Refine Proposal 1 week

Defend proposal 2 weeks

Revise proposal 2 weeks

Collect data 2 Months

Attempts to get non-respondents 1 month

Editing the data and coding open-ended questions 1 week

Data entry and verification 1 week

Analyzing the data 2Weeks

Preparing the report 2 Weeks

Report submission and presentation 1 week

Final corrections 1 week

Total 35 weeks