Impacts de la crise de la zone euro sur l’Afrique sub-saharienne

Shanta DevarajanBanque mondiale

http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan

Source: Demombynes and Trommlerova, 2012

Politiques économiques améliorées

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Net exports contribution to growthDomestic demand contribution to growthGDP growth

Resilient domestic demand supported 2011 GDP growth in Sub Saharan Africa

percent

Source: World Bank

Diversification des partenaires…

…mais pas des exportations

94%

69%

55%

81%

94%

67%

54%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oil countries Non-oil resource rich

Coastal Landlocked

1998~2000 2008~2010

Proportion des exportations des trois biens les plus importants

Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations

Hypothèses: Impacts d’une crise sur la croissance économique, relatif au « baseline »

(% PIB)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2La zone euro -3.4 -8.5Autres pays de l’OCDE

-2.3 -3.3

Les pays en voie de développement

-2.6 -4.0

L’Afrique sub-saharienne

-2.4 -3.7

L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro

• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers

L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro

• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange

Prix des matières premières baissent

1-May3-M

ay5-M

ay7-M

ay9-M

ay

11-M

ay

13-M

ay

15-M

ay

17-M

ay

19-M

ay

21-M

ay

23-M

ay

25-M

ay

27-M

ay

29-M

ay

31-M

ay2-J

un4-J

un6-J

un8-J

un

10-Ju

n

12-Ju

n

14-Ju

n60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Corn Cotton Crude Oil Aluminium Copper

Nickel Rubber Soybean Wheat Sugar

Most commodity prices have declined since May

L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro

• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange– Les exportations

Exportations des biens de consommation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

SSAMozambiqueSao Tom & P.

BeninSenegal

Cape VerdeComoros

SwazilandKenya

LesothoSeychellesMauritius

Madagascar

Share of consumer goods as % of total exports

Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations

Dépendance vis-à-vis de l’union européenne

20%

33%

37%

39%

59%

70%

71%

92%

93%

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

South Africa

SSA

Kenya

Comoros

Madagascar

Ethiopia

Mauritius

Seychelles

Cape Verde

Consumer-good export to EU as % of total consumer good export

Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations

L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro

• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange– Les exportations– Les investissements directs étrangers, les

transferts des migrants, l’aide publique du développement

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Net private inflows (equity + debt)Foreign direct investmentPortfolio equity

Flux de capitaux étrangers vers l’Afrique Sub-saharienne ($ milliards)

Marge de manœuvre: Compte courant

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Curr

ent a

ccou

nt b

alan

ce a

s %

of G

DP

2007/08

2010/11

non oilresource rich

Oil exporting countries

Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations

Marge de manœuvre: Soldes budgétaires

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Fisc

al b

alan

ce a

s %

of

GD

P

2007/08

2010/11

non-oil resource rich countries

oil exporting countries

Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations

Marge de manœuvre: Dette extérieure

10

13

8

19

20

22

24

31

31

42

59

19

20

23

25

26

27

30

40

40

49

82

0 50 100

Ethiopia

Uganda

Botswana

Mali

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Kenya

Tanzania

Sierra Leone

Senegal

São Tomé & Príncipe

Some countries are now seeing higher debt burdens

Debt total debt stock as a percentage of GDP in 2008 (in percent)

Change in debt burden between 2008 and 2011 (in percentage points)

Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations

Impact on Growth

Low High

Fiscal Space

Less Comoros, DR Congo, The Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi

Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mauritania, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe

More Ethiopia, Liberia, Rwanda

Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina, Burundi, CAR, Cameroon, Chad, Congo Rep., Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, South Africa, Togo, Zambia