Impact of Climate Change: Vulnerability and Adaptation

Infrastructure

113

HAMED ASSAF

CHAPTER 9

I. INTRODUCTION

Infrastructure is the lifeline that supports all sortsof human activities - domestic, commercial, andindustrial - in urban as well as rural settings.Transportation systems, coastal defence works,water supply and wastewater systems, electricgeneration facilities and oil and gas pipelines rep-resent the bulk of infrastructure, which areexpected to be impacted by impending climaticchanges. Despite the significance of infrastruc-ture, few studies have been conducted world-wide, and very few in the Arab world, to assessthe impact of climate change and explore adapta-tion strategies. Consequently this assessmentstudy is conducted based on reviewing literaturemostly published in developed nations andextrapolating findings by analogy to the Arabregion. The analogies are based on selecting stud-ies pertaining to regions with similar climate,topography and urban settings.

Four categories of infrastructure are consideredin this study: transportation, coastal protectionworks, water supply and wastewater systems, andenergy generation and supply systems. Theassessment looks at the impacts of climate changeon these infrastructure systems and potentialoptions for building and enhancing adaptivecapacity.

II. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

Transportation infrastructure includes both net-works such as roads and highways and facilitiessuch as bridges, ports and tunnels (U.S. NationalResearch Council, 2008). The transportationinfrastructure in the Arab world is generallyexposed to prolonged hot and extremely hotdays, sandstorms, thunderstorms and dusty andwindy conditions, and sea surges in the coastalregions. All these climatic conditions are expect-ed to intensify, and to become more frequent andwidespread under projected climate change sce-narios.

The impacts of climate change on the transporta-tion sector can generally be categorized into thoserelated to the structural integrity of infrastructureand those affecting its operation. Adapted fromthe U.S. National Research Council (2008),these impacts can be summarized as shown in

Table 1. The projected increase in intensity andprolongation of very hot days can result in thesoftening of asphalt and consequent degradationof road pavement which affects its operation andincreases risks of traffic accidents. These climaticconditions may lead to excessive expansion ofbridge components and deformation of metalcomponents such as rail tracks and bridge steelelements. Excessive heat decreases the efficiencyof construction and maintenance activities,increases heat-related health risks to constructioncrews and commuters, and poses limits on themaximum loads of trucks and airplanes.

Based on work by the U.S. National ResearchCouncil (2008), Neumann and Price (2009)identify several measures to develop and enhanceadaptive capacity in the transportation sector. Ofrelevance to the Arab region are changes in trans-portation operating and maintenance practices,design strategies, planning of capital investment,control on land use, adoption of new technolo-gies and material, and development of informa-tion base and decision-support tools.

Preparedness to extreme weather conditions andevents should be incorporated into routine oper-ations with an emphasis on closer collaboration

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with emergency management agencies.Infrastructure, especially critical components,should be designed on more robust standards.Considering the uncertainty in models of climatechange impacts, infrastructure could be designedso as to have a shorter life span, thereby facilitat-ing marginal improvements to provide flexibilityin dealing with changing climatic conditions.

Integrated transportation and land-use planningcan be an effective adaptation strategy in reduc-ing the impact of climate change by restrictingdevelopment and settlement in high-hazardareas. This can be implemented at the level ofplanning of new infrastructure or rehabilitationof those affected by climate change. The successof this approach is expected to vary from onecountry to another depending on the currentlevel of development of hazard prone areas, inte-gration of planning agencies and support forthese changes which may not be popular amongsignificant sectors of the society. Recent advances in monitoring technology,

information management, decision support sys-tems and modelling, and development of newconstruction materials open up new opportuni-ties for managing the impact of climate changeand designing infrastructure elements capable ofwithstanding more extreme climatic conditions.

III. COASTAL PROTECTION

Thermal expansion of sea water and influx offresh water from melted ice sheets and glaciersoccasionally accompanied with local land subsi-dence are destined to increase sea levels by theend of the 21st century to levels estimatedbetween 19-59 centimetres according to IPCCfigures; it should be noted that these predictionsexclude future rapid dynamical changes in iceflow and the full likely temperature range(IPCC, 2007). Recent evidence of projectedhigher contributions from land-based ice such asthe Greenland Ice Sheet indicates that sea levelrise (SLR) at the end of the century could range

ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 115

IMPACT OF PROJECTED CLIMATIC CHANGES ON TRANSPORTATIONTABLE 1

Impact on operation of the infrastructure

Limitation on the maximum load capacity oftrucks and airplanes due to weakening ofpavement.

Harsh climatic conditions will reduce the effec-tiveness and increase the cost of constructionand maintenance.

Frequent closure of coastal roads due to seasurges.

Storm surges may disrupt operations and posehazards to passengers of coastal airports(e.g., Beirut and Manama Airports).

Intense sandstorms in desert areas across theArab world would cause disruption of roadtraffic and increase frequency of closures andaccidents.

Disruption of the operation of airports.

Climatic changes

Increases in frequencyand intensity of veryhot days and heatwaves.

Increase in sea waterlevel / sea surges.

Increase in thefrequency andintensity ofsandstorms,thunderstorms, andwindy conditions.

Impact on structural elements of infrastructure

Excessive expansion in bridge joints and pave-ment surfaces

Decreased viscosity of asphalt which may leadto traffic-related rutting and displacement ofpavement.

Deformities in metal components includingrail-tracks, bridge steel elements, etc

Inundation of coastal transportation elementsincluding roads, bridges, airports, etc.

Erosion and deterioration of pavement, bridgesupport and its base.

Costly adjustment in harbour and port facili-ties to accommodate tidal increases and moreintense sea surges.

Increased damages to road, rails and bridges. Increased risk of mudslide and rockslide in

mountainous regions, such as in Lebanon.

Sources: Adapted from the U.S. National Research Council (2008).

from 0.5 to 1.4 meters; with some studies show-ing that melting from ice sheets alone could causeSLR of up to 2 meters. Not only would SLRresult in the inundation of highly populated andproductive areas, but it would also accentuate theimpact of sea surges leading to beach degrada-tion, erosion of road bases, instability of bridgesand harbour structures, in addition of posingserious hazards to coastal population.

These projections could have dire consequencesfor the Arab world considering the concentrationof very significant proportions of population andeconomic assets in coastal zones in the majorcities such as Alexandria, Casablanca, Algiers,Tripoli, Tunis, Beirut, Latakia, Jidda, Basra,Kuwait city and Dubai. In a study by theOrganization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) (Nicholls et al., 2008)Alexandria was currently ranked 9th in terms ofexposed population (1.33 million) and 17th interms of exposed assets ($28.46 billion) amongthe worlds portal cities. By 2070, the city is pro-jected to be in the 11th place in terms of exposedpopulation (4.38 million) and 20th in terms ofexposed assets ($563.28 billion).

Despite the gravity of this situation there are veryfew studies carried out assessing the impact ofSLR in the Arab region (e.g., AFED, 2008: 129-131). One of these studies (El Raey et al., 1999)

provided an assessment of the impact of SLR onthe two main coastal directorates in Egypt:Alexandria and Port Said. Current conditionsand those for 0.25, 0.5 and 1 meter projectedSLR were assessed. The study shows that theseareas are highly vulnerable to SLR with thepotential of forcing millions to permanentlymigrate out and result in losses in the billions ofdollars to urban dwellings, recreational facilities,industrial assets and infrastructure.

Al-Jeneid et al. (2008) assessed the impact ofSLR on Bahrains archipelago. SLR of 0.5, 1, 1.5,2 and 5 meters were considered. The findingsunderscore the vulnerability of Bahrain to SLReven for the lower SLR of 0.5 meters. This ismainly attributed to the concentration of popu-lation and commercial and industrial activities inthe coastal areas. In particular, key industrial andcommercial parks and infrastructure includingmain roads and highways are situated in low-lying newly reclaimed areas.

One of the dilemmas facing policy makers indealing with the impact of SLR is striking a bal-ance between the costly investment in developingand maintaining coastal protection works on theone hand and the difficulty in controlling andreversing urban and industrial growth in coastalareas on the other. For instance, it is deemed pro-hibitively expensive and socially disruptive to

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